August 2010
August 31, 2010
Polysilicon used to be Big in the Supply Constrained Days of 2007 and 2008.This commodity which is generally producers for $30/kg used to be sold at $400/kg by Polysilicon Producers as the Exponential Demand Growth in the Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Industry pushed the prices to astronomical levels.With Polysilicon being the only constraining link in the Supply Chain,Downstream Solar Companies with access to Cheap Polysilicon Contracts used to be the Kings of the Industry.Polysilicon Producers like MEMC,Wacker etc. managed to sign many sweetheart deals on those days with 10-15% prepayments and other favorable conditions loaded in the favor of the upstream suppliers.
August 31, 2010
Don't know how these projects will further the cause of Solar Energy in China as they don't help in formulating realistic Feed in Tariff Rates for the Government's New Energy Administration (NEA).China has long been delaying the introduction of a Feed in Tariff (FIT) for Solar Energy.Note many major countries in the world except for China and the USA have Feed in Tariff Programs to promote Solar Energy.In fact 75% of the world's solar energy installations are dependent on the FIT subsidies.
August 31, 2010
.Most of the State Electricity Distributors are in poor financial shape and have been known to frequently default on their financial obligations.With almost 70-75% of the estimated $2.2 Billion in the first phase of the PV projects to be financed by debt,this represents a big hurdle for the success of Solar Energy.The government needs to come out with some sort of arrangement of guarantees for the smooth functioning of the Solar Mission and instill confidence amongst investors and Banks.
August 31, 2010
Japan is the latest country to raise concerns over the Chinese Monopoly over Rare Earth Minerals.These 17 Minerals are essential for High Technology and Green Industries of the Future and China has a control over 97% of the global deposits of these minerals.The EU had recently warned over the adverse effect over the shortage of these rare minerals while USA is contemplating taking China to the WTO over the same matter.China has defended its action saying that mining of these minerals leads to environmental degradation has reduced the export quota drastically by 72% in the 2nd half of 2010 compared to the First Half.Japanese automakers like Honda,Toyota and Nissan have big plans in the Green Vehicle Sector which uses big amounts of these minerals imported from the mainland.However China's cracking down over illegal exports and tightening control over these rare minerals has sent down tremors in Japan.
August 27, 2010
China is making massive investments into Africa exploiting the virgin natural resources of the Dark Continent for its voracious industries at home.Unlike the Developed Nations,the Chinese government has no qualms about the country's rulers or human rights violations.Not surprisingly as it has been accused by activists of violating labor and environment rights in areas where it has invested.Most of the African countries have despotic and corrupt regimes looking to sell the continents rich resources to anyone willing to pay them.They have found a compliant partner in China which gives them a red carpet treatment.Mozambique is the latest country to sign a MOU which would lead to Chinese largesse.
August 27, 2010
The Indian Government Cabinet today gave approval to a new Direct Tax Code which is supposed to fundamentally change the Tax Structure in the country.This Code […]
August 27, 2010
There is no good way of shorting Prakash Steelage stock otherwise it seems a sure shot money making opportunity.What is funny is that mainstream media websites have described the stock glowingly as a multibagger.More reason than ever to strictly avoid mainstream financial media.These IPOs have become a fertile gambling ground with the dice loaded in favor of the promoters and connected market operators.Retail investors get sucked in not realizing its a "Greater Fool" Game with the whole purpose of making them the Greatest Fools.
August 27, 2010
Czech Republic came out with a Renewable Energy Framework which will finish off the Solar Sector in the country if passed in the current form.Czech despite […]
August 25, 2010
Countries around the world have always managed to shoot themselves on the foot while designing and implementing Feed in Tariff Schemes.Spain did it in 2008 resulting in a Boom and Bust Cycle,Czech is going through the Boom Phase currently while UK seems to be in the starting stage of the Boom.A Bust inevitably follows the Boom,as Bureaucrats never manage to prepare a good incentive scheme to promote Green Energy.It always surprises me how a developed nation government regularly manages to botch up these schemes.
August 25, 2010
Although the global financial crisis has pushed governments to sharply cut aid to the renewable sector, it has had little effect on costs in the solar mirror power sector compared with the photovoltaic (PV) sector, which uses solar panels to generate power.
"We've see some reduction in prices, but nothing like in the PV sector. Costs per megawatt are between 4 and 5 million but they can reach up to six depending on the kind of power storage system you use," Seage said.
Sector analysts put the average cost of CSP per megawatt at about 5 million euros before the global financial crisis, about six times more than for conventional gas-fired power generation.
The high cost of CSP makes it unlikely to be competitive with conventional energy until the next decade, and that also depends on reasonable charges for carbon dioxide emissions.
"We see CSP power becoming competitive between 2020 and 2030, depending on a country's levels of radiation," Seage said.
August 25, 2010
Global hopes of an agreement on Carbon Emissions to stop the advance of Global Warming has been put in the Cold Storage.With little consensus and declining […]
August 25, 2010
Norway has been hailed as the toughest cutter of Greenhouse Gas Emissions amongst the devloped countries promising to cut Carbon Emissions by 30-40% by 2020 from […]
August 25, 2010
Korean Shipbuilders are facing the twin problems of increased competition from Chinese companies as well as a global glut in Ship Supply.They are looking to diversify away from the ship building industry into newer faster areas of growth.Wind Energy has been growing at above 20% CAGR over the last several years and makes a good area to invest in.Daewoo Shipping has bought a small firm in the USA DeWind to acquire Wind Turbine Technology while Hyundai has already made plans to open Wind Farms.With same skills required in Offshore Wind Farms and Shipbuilding,Daewoo Shipping has set a target of $800 million from Wind Energy by
August 25, 2010
Note the Solar EPC business typically is a low margin business like the general Enginereering Procurement and Contract (EPC) Sector.A number of Solar Companies like Q-Cells,MEMC,Sunpower and First Solar in recent times have entered this segment to generate a captive demand for their solar products.Nobody derives significant profits from this part of the supply chain due to its lower margin structure.With low barriers of entry and little bargaining power,this part of the Solar Food Chain is the last place you would expect a high technology company like Toshiba to enter.The Nikkei report says that Toshiba wants to enter the Smart Grid business by leveraging its experiece of the Solar EPC business.
August 25, 2010
Even Germany has imposed yearly changes on FIT , still it has managed to become the solar capital of the world.2010 was an exception due to a mid year change,still Germany is going to install more solar capacity in 1 month than US's entire historical installed capacity.This is due to a well laid out policy which instills confidence in investors.The French Government's FIT cut has good reasons since ground mounted plants have lesser costs and most European countries like Spain are trying to boost residential solar installations.However rapid fire changes are not the answer to a well thought of careful FIT policy.
August 24, 2010
Note HK listed Chinese solar firms like GCL and Comtec solar have performed much better than their NY listed Chinese peers.The HK market has also outperformed the US markets which are presently suffering from Double Dip Scares.If Trony manages to list successfully in Hong Kong it will give an impetus for other Chinese Green Companies like Daqo and others to list in HK as well.With continued apathy towards Chinese solar stocks,it is not inconceivable that you might see NY listed firms apply for a dual listing in HK as well.
August 24, 2010
Italy largest power utility Enel and giant Chinese utilities Huaneng and Datang Group are looking to spinoff their Renewable Energy Arms through IPOs.Note Enel has been […]
August 23, 2010
India’s Real Estate Sector is one of the most unloved sectors in the Stock Market.Even Fund Managers shun this Sector because of the complete lack of […]
August 23, 2010
Reliance's Strategy in Shale Gas makes a lot of sense.The Technology is but new and unproven on a long time scale.There have been concerns about the environment impact of Shale Gas Extraction.Also low Gas Prices due to the GFC has made the industry growth slowdown.This is a good time to buy Shale Gas Assets relatively cheaply as Economic Recovery will again see Fossil Fuel Prices heading up.
August 23, 2010
The Green Indices have sharply underperformed the broad market due to a combination of several factors.These are High Competition in Solar Energy,Declining Demand in Wind Energy,Lack of Global Agreement on Climate Change and Slow Growth of Smart Grid Technologies.With developed governments facing pressure to cut fiscal deficits,green investments are also expected to get hit from government stimulus plans.However India and China are the two bright spots in an otherwise bleak Green Investing Landscape.Both countries have a Prodigious Energy Demand which is still growing at a rapid clip.Despite their reliance on Coal and other Fossil Fuel forms,both countries realize the need to promote Renewable Energy.
August 23, 2010
The United Nations is reviewing the Carbon Credit Requests from 5 plants in China and their is a high probability of cancellation of these requests.NGOs and activists have alleged that these HFC plants emit more GreenHouse Gases (GHGs) than is required in the normal function of the plants.This leads to increased revenue from neutralizing these gases defeating the entire purpose of the CDM scheme.Carbon Trading has repeatedly been proved to be an inefficient and ineffective scheme,but its popularity continues to increase around the world.The Scheme is suitable for niche purposes and is totally inadequate as a holistic response to the problem of Climate Change
August 23, 2010
This Port Stock maybe a good buy for all the India Infrastructural Growth Faithful but not for a value investor.This company still have to prove it can generate earnings on a sustainable basis.While a number of PE players have paid more than the issue price in this company,this still does not justify a buy in my opinion.This company might be a good stock to own in 2-3 years but currently you can avoid this issue.
August 23, 2010
Bollywood as India's massive Film Industry is commonly known as,has not been known to bring forth serious issues.While early movies used to dwell on Rural India,the 21st century Indian cinema has decoupled itself from the Indian masses.Most of the movies these days with inane story lines are shot in foreign locales depicting lives of an extreme minority on Indians.Peepli Live is a refreshing exception to this trend.With no famous stars and no "song and dance' routines around trees,the movie has humourously covered the issues of farmer problems in India.
August 22, 2010
Renewable Energy Vestas posts surprise loss and cuts outlook – Reuters FuelCell sells 1.4MW fuel cell power plant to G3 Power – Reuters Two China new […]
August 20, 2010
Note India is the 2nd faster growing economy in the world and presents a lucrative market for US MNCs facing a slowing domestic economy.Also unlike China,India does not have a deficit-surplus issue with the US.India is a crucial market for US which wants to double exports in the next 5 years.India can put punitive duties on imports of aircraft products.Note US exported more than $2 billion in airplane and space parts from the US in 2009 and is expected to grow this strongly in 2010 as well.India can easily replace Boeing with European manufacturer Airbus.India will be the biggest aircraft market in the world in the next 5-6 years as air traffic explodes.Airbus and Boeing are fierce rivals with their disputes frequently putting EU and the US government in WTO disputes.
August 20, 2010
Midfield Industries was another overpriced small cap IPO in the Indian market which listed on 4th August.This stock not so strangely has almost doubled in price […]
August 20, 2010
While US-China relations remain normal with the biggest trade relationship in the world,there is always an undercurrent of mistrust between the world’s two largest economies.Chinese companies […]
August 20, 2010
Note CPV like the Thin Film Technology saw investments during 2007-2008 when the Polysilicon Prices were quite high at $400/kg.With prices crashing to $50/kg in 2009 and 2010,these technologies ran into a lot of problems.CPV is making a comeback as traditional c-SI based cells are reaching the upper limit of their efficiency.Sunpower which makes the most efficient PV cells recently said that it would look at CPV technology to improve the efficiency of their 24% cells further.Note that Efficiency improvements is the most important cost cutting measure for Solar Technology which would lead to its mass adoption.
August 20, 2010
Chinese Firms are not exactly renowned for their Environmental Credentials and the weak regulations in African Countries does not give them an incentive to be so.Concerns were raised about the impact of a Chinese Ore Mine in the forests of Gabon.With lax oversight and easily corruptible administration,the Damage is already Done before it can be Stopped.Africa countries in general are ruled by Undemocratic, Corrupt rulers which are willing to go along with Environmental Degradation in return for Bribes.
August 20, 2010
the administration had done nothing.Instead of setting out a Renewable Energy Standard or a Feed in Tariff Policy,the President seems busier in giving speeches and photo-ops.The result has been that USA is lagging far behind Europe and China in the Green Energy area.Deutche Bank Asset Management which invests $6-7 billion out of its $700 Billion corpus in the Green Sector,has made a scathing attack on the lack of US Federal Support for Green Industry.The Bank said it would totally bypass US in making Green Investments and concentrate its energies on China and Europe.Solar Companies are already outsourcing Green Jobs to Mexico and China. US Companies are already recognizing China as a Leader in the Clean Technology Area .