Blog
January 2, 2012
Note Chinese companies too would have shut down but the state owned Chinese banks are keeping them alive with loans at ridiculous interest rates.LDK which is buying Sunways is almost insolvent as well with its convertibles trading at less than 50c on the dollar in Singapore.It has more than n$3 billion in debt compared to its market cap of around $600 million.It faces massive losses in the coming qtrs and can't serve the interest payments much less expand.The strong support of the Chinese government for its green companies is keeping them alive.Chinese solar panels have become super cheap due to companies selling at below cost and massive scale.Note all the cheap solar panel brands in the world are Chinese with the exception of First Solar and some Asians.
LDK has managed to spend 22 million Euros despite burning hundred of millions of dollars in cash because it has got the Chinese government trillions backing it.So while Western companies burn and crash,the big crony Chinese companies can expand and acquire.
Most of the German solar manufacturing industry is finished and it is unlikely that except a couple of them like SM Solar or Wacker will live to see 2013.Q-Cells too should go bankrupt or get consolidated .Note despite European companies shifting factories to Asia ,they just can't compete.Some of the smaller module makers with 20 MW plants have seen huge losses with the equipment not selling for 10 cents on the dollar
January 2, 2012
Gujarat solar energy has been massively promoted by the state government led by Modi which has announced numerous incentives and subsidies.The state has an ambition of becoming the Germany of solar energy in India with more than 1 GW of capacity in the next 2-3 years,but the solar energy developers has missed the deadline.29 solar companies in India now want an extension which add up to 450 MW of capacity.The 300 MW of capacity target has not even been half covered with only 140 MW installed.However the problem is that on Jan 29 2012 new feed in tariffs will be announced which will be lower.This will benefit the older developers if they get the older higher tariffs with much lower equipment prices.The State has already implemented a clear and forward looking Renewable Energy Policy with emphasis on Solar Energy.It has signed PPAs with a number of solar project developers under its State Solar Subsidy Scheme.While other states are looking mainly towards the federal subsidy scheme JNNSM to push Solar Energy Generation,Gujarat is looking to push Solar Energy on its own.Gujarat now has reportedly acquired 3000 acres at Charnaka village in Patan District which it will give to solar project developers to install solar panels.
January 2, 2012
Ladakh,one of the most beautiful hilly regions lying near the Chinese border has one of the highest potentials in generating solar power in India.Note under JNNSM,India is targeting more than 20 GW in the next 10 years and already large solar farms are coming in the desert areas of Rajasthan and Gujarat.However,Indian policy has mostly neglected the less inhabited region of Ladakh.Most of the policy initiatives have been low key in nature and mostly to provide the region with off grid solar power,solar cookers and solar lights.What has been missed is to build massive solar panel farms and connecting them with a transmission line to the power hungry states of the North.Just like Himachal Pradesh has become a masssive hydro power exporting state,Ladakh can do the same trick with solar power.
Solar Panel prices have fallen by 50% in 2011 and now solar energy can be profitably be generate at Rs 7/kwh.While this is more expensive than coal at Rs 4/kwh,the thing to be remembered is that this power value is constant for 25 years and it has no coal disadvantages which kills thousands each year.Also it increases Indias 'energy security and reduce imports of expensive coal.It also will provide more employment and generate economic value internally beside supporting the Indian construction and EPC companies.
January 2, 2012
The Chinese solar panel producers too are facing tough times with many companies running at low utilizations and almost everybody running losses.Some companies with huge debt burdens like LDK are running because of government largesse as they are effectively insolvent for all purposes.Expect more bankrutpcies in the coming year .It will take a very foolish or a very brave company to expand solar capacity this year.
Only USA Solar Installers are having a good time with below cost solar panels availabe increasing the returns and leading to massive increased.It looks like 2012 will be a good year for US solar installers who are expanding rapidly to take advantage of the falling solar module prices.Even Buffett is going all into solar development space acquiring billion dollar project in a classical case of vulture investing.
January 2, 2012
2011 has been a bad year for emerging markets with high inflation,slowing growth and rising interest rates.Most of the problems are a consequence of the 2008 Financial Crisis when emerging countries increasing fiscal spending and reduced interest rates to reduce the affect of the Lehman crisis.Now the Bill is coming due with slowing growth and higher inflation.Most of the BRIC countries have heavily increased interest rates in 2011 to slow inflation as their poor population can ill afford the damaging effect of inflation.
Brazil has reduced its 2012 Budget by $32 billion to control inflation drawing howls of protest from politicians who always want to spend more as if money grows on trees.The country has reined in spending in both 2011 and 2012 to reduce the fiscal deficit and spend more money on productive sectors like infra.
January 2, 2012
For Foreign individuals
a) The idea may be bad as well as Indian stock markets are a quagmire of bad corporate governance and corruption.Insider trading and manipulation is quite rampant which has made retail investors flee the market.
b) They will be faced with foreign exchange volatility which can be quite high.In dollar terms the Indian market fell by almost 35% in 2011.
c) Some sectors are notorious for corruption with even professional fund managers avoiding real estate because of accounting shenanigans and indian small cap stocks being like casino games rather than companies
December 7, 2011
Investing Money in India right now is a very confusing matter given the large number of choices and the lack of attractiveness of different assets due to different reasons.There are hundreds of voices seemingly intelligent but who are selling their own books.If you turn on the finance new channels they will keep saying buy stocks for the long term as if a normal investor can make money by buying stocks for the short term.Gold proponents will say that it has been a great investment over the last several years and with the US,European systemic shocks it will remain so.However the rapid uptrend in gold prices has made it a somewhat risky investment.Investing in Gold is also not easy given the wide array of choices like Gold ETFs,physical or futures.So lets see each asset class with its pros and cons
November 4, 2011
The Bees lineup of ETFs was started by Benchmark Asset Management Company which was a unique Indian AMC in the sense that it focused on ETFs at a time when the major Indian AMCs did not care a hoot.However ETFs in India are starting to catch on rapidly as Indian mutual funds under perform despite their very high expense ratios.Recognizing this trend of growing AUM of ETFs,Goldman Sachs acquired the still small Benchmark.With effect from 14th July 2011, both Benchmark Asset Management Company Private Limited and Benchmark Trustee Company Private Limited became a part of the Goldman Sachs group. Goldman Sachs is a leading global investment banking, securities and investment management firm that provides a wide range of services worldwide to a substantial and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and high-net-worth individuals. It was founded in 1869 & is one of the oldest and largest investment banking firms.
November 1, 2011
The Axis Gold ETF started in 2010 under the NSE Symbol AXISGOLD.The Scheme endeavors to generate returns that are in line with the performance of gold, subject to Tracking Errors. The corpus of the Scheme isinvested in Gold Bullion of fineness - 995 parts per 1,000 (99.5%) or higher. Further, the Scheme may also invest in gold related instruments (including derivatives related to gold) as per SEBI guidelines.
November 1, 2011
HDFC Gold ETF along with Kotak and Gold Bees are one of the best gold etfs to invest in India and provide a sharp contrast to the worst ETFs like SBI and Axis Bank.HDFC Gold ETF has the added advantage of being one of the largest Fund Houses and is a subsidiary of one of the largest private banks with a great distribution strenght and reputation.It is also one of the few mutual fund ocmpanies which is offering a SIP on the Gold ETF unlike many others.Expense Ratio is also one of the lowest in the industry at 1% . All in all HDFC Gold ETF is a good buy if you are thinking of putting money in gold through ETF.
October 27, 2011
SBI GETS is an open ended Gold Exchange Traded Scheme. Even though this is an open-ended scheme, investors need to buy & sell units of the scheme on the stock exchanges where these units are listed for liquidity at the market price, subject to the rules and regulations of the exchange. The Scheme opened on March 30, 2009.The investment objective of the fund is to seek to provide returns that closely correspond to returns provided by price of gold. However, the performance of the scheme may differ from that of the underlying asset due to tracking error. The benchmark is the price of the Gold. Special Products SIP, SWP, STP are not available. No dividend would be declared under the Scheme unlike Reliance Gold ETFThe SBI GETS Expense ratio is 2.5%.This is one of the highest expense ratios in the industry much higher compared to other Gold ETF Fund products like Kotak or Goldman.The reason of this expense ratio is not apparent since passive investment in gold does not require such high expenses.This is a deal killer from SBI Asset Management and I would strongly recommend never to buy SBIGETS unless SBI reduces this expense ratio
October 25, 2011
Kotak Mahindra which is one of the biggest private banks with operations in almost all aspects of Finance like Investing Banking,Wealth Management has launched a good Gold ETF products as well.It is an open-ended gold Exchange Traded Fund, which invests in physical gold and tracks the domestic spot price of gold as closely as possible. Units of the scheme listed on stock exchanges and can be easily traded in demat form. Each unit of the scheme is approximately equal to 1 gram of gold. Units of the schemes are backed by physical gold held by the Custodian - Scotia Macotta. All physical gold held with Scotia Macotta conforms to the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) rules for Good Delivery.
The investment objective of Kotak Gold ETF is to generate returns that are in line with the returns on investment in physical gold, subject to tracking error.
October 23, 2011
I had written about the best way to invest in gold in India looking at the different ways of buying physical gold and gold etfs.There was also the option of investing in gold mutual fund which invest in gold mining companies as well as looking at whether to buy gold from banks or you were better off buying gold from your neighbourhood jeweller.Alll the options of buying gold have their advantages and disadvantages.Gold ETFs have become the fastest growing segment of buying gold in India with most people prefering teh convenience and ease of buying gold the demat way.Note only does it have the security and storage advantages,it is also easily saleable without a huge transaction costs.Its no wonder that most asset management companies in India have launched gold etf products to take advantage of the growing trend of buying gold Etfs in India.SBI and UTI,two of the oldest government owned mutual fund houses in the country too have started gold etfs besides the private companies.Benchmark Gold Bees remains the oldest gold etf in the country and is looking to gain marketshare after Goldman Sachs bougth the company.IDBI has joined the gold etf party becoming the latest AMC to start a gold ETF.There is little to distinguish these Gold ETFs from each other since they don't have any active management and are mostly linked to the price of gold.The best gold etf is the one which has the least tracking error and the lowest expense ratio.I don't have a favorable opinion of the mutual fund etfs in India since they charge very highly and there is lack of variety and liqudity in the Indian ETF market.
October 22, 2011
The world has so many beautiful places to visit & see. India itself is full of historical and tourists places. It has variety to offer starting from the adventurous activities in Himalayas such as mountaineering, trekking, skiing, etc. to beach holidays in Goa and Kerala, Jungle Safari through Gir and the water sports in the long stretches of coastline and the backwaters in Kerala. Earlier, it involved lot of stress to plan a trip for one's family, where one had take the pains for checking availability & making bookings by standing in long queues for travel tickets & hotel stay. Plus, with so much availability in the market, it was also difficult to compare prices & quotes and make a wise decision. But with the advent of online bookings made through these travel sites, the whole scenario changed. Now the whole process is less stressful & more fun. One can easily go online check availability of tickets according to his needs, compare prices, book tickets & enjoy a wonderful holiday time with family & friends. There are a number of online travel agencies which through their online portals in India that help in planning these holidays and booking travel & hotel tickets at suitable & reasonable prices. They manage to aggregate travel information and make it searchable and useful. These companies offer travelers the ability to select and book from a wide selection of hotel accommodation, flights and tourist attractions across the world. They use some technology that brings speed, usability and transparency to the travel world. It also means that travel planning is no more stressful and one can spend less time searching for tickets and more time on planning your holiday.
October 11, 2011
Sugar is produced by pressing out the juice from sugarcane & then boiling it into crystals. This process was developed in India around 500 BC. The sugarcane cultivation is believed to have originated in New Guinea, and was spread along routes to Southeast Asia and India. Brazil and India are the largest producer and producer-consumer of sugar respectively. India is the second largest producer of sugarcane next to Brazil. In 2008, the production in Brazil was 645,300,182 tonnes & India was 348,187,900 tonnes. India contributes about 12% of world sugar production and has annual sugar production capacity of 23 million tonnes with a total investment of $11000 million. Presently, about 4 million hectares of land is under sugarcane production. The average yield is around 70 tonnes per hectare. India now has 453 working sugar factories with an average capacity of 3500 TCD (tonnes crushed per day). There has been an increase in the volume of free international trade in sugar, which provides an excellent means of increasing exports. In India over 45 million tonnes of sugar is being traded each year. Sugar production is not the only business of the Indian industry, but it also has a diversified business of power generation and ethanol production. The country has been producing about 1.7 billion liters of alcohol utilizing 75-80% molasses, which is a by-product of sugar production in the country. In 1993, Molasses and alcohol-based industries were decontrolled, but currently are being controlled by state governments.
October 7, 2011
In the past ten years, cement consumption in India grew by approximately 7.5% per year. The building industry developed very dynamically, driven by the strong growth of population and the quick expansion of infrastructure. In 2005, India was after China the second largest cement consumer with around 135 million tonnes.
August 16, 2011
Sharp is the largest solar company in the world by revenues and has been so for the last few years despite massively increasing competition from Chinese Solar Panel Producers.While other Japanese conglomerates like Sanyo,Mitsubishi and Kyocera have substantially lost solar panel marketshare ,Sharp has managed to retain its leadership position.Though companies like First Solar and Suntech have shipped more solar modules than Sharp,in terms of total dollar sales Sharp is still on top.Sharp which used to make polycrystalline and monocrystalline silicon solar panels has diversified into producing thin film amorphous silicon solar panels.The company has also entered the solar IPP and solar development business in collaboration with Enel Green Power and by acquiring a US Solar Developer Recurrent Energy.However in core solar panel production,Sharp has much higher costs and has lost money consistently.Sharp sells Solar Systems and Solar Inverters as well as Solar Modules.However the challenges in the solar market are considerable with well funded low cost competitors from China and South Korea.Sharp faces the toughest years of its solar history as it fights to survive in this cut throat Solar Market
August 14, 2011
Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) is integrating of photovoltaic modules into the building envelope such as roofs or windows.These solid-state devices are used to replace conventional building materials to generate electricity out of sunlight with no maintenance and help in fighting global warming as the produce no pollution.BIPV products are most useful in construction of new buildings as an ancillary source of electrical power, although existing you can retrofit old buildings with BIPV proudcts as well. The advantage of BIPV over normal standard PV panels is that they integrate into the buildings instead of sticking out leading some people to call it ugly.ALso they help in saving the amount of money spent on building materials and labor that would normally be used to construct the part of the building . These advantages make BIPV one of the fastest growing segments of the photovoltaic industry with some people estimating that the use of BIPV will increase at more than 50% annually over the next few years with more than 1 GW of BIPV modules installed in the last year.
August 1, 2011
BIPV is the acronym for Building Integrated Photovoltaics which means the integration of photovoltaic materials into building structures such as roofs,windows and facades.It not only replaces the building supplies but also generate electricity creating a killer green product.This is one of the fastest growing segment in the solar industry and it has been estimated that almost 6-7% of the solar industry is made of BIPV products.A wide variety of technologies and products are being used in creating BIPV products.Though a large number of big solar panel manufactures like Suntech,Yingli,Canadian Solar have come out with BIPV Panels and Products,the segment has not become as big mainly because of higher costs vis a vis the standard crystalline solar systems.There are also specialized BIPV suppliers such as Ascent Solar and Konarka whose products are more suited to the BIPV Industry than the normal module industry.Some of these suppliers have no option as their technology is no longer competitive with the Chinese solar panel producers.Solyndra had a niche product which could be used in rooftops with ease of installation and low weight.However the high costs drove it to bankruptcy.The next leg up to the BIPV industry should come up with more BIPV products from the Major Solar Companies and as cost of solar silicon decline further with scale and innovation
July 22, 2011
CEEG or China Electric Equipment Group Corporation is based in Nanjing, China and is a China state owned company.Chinese Solar Panels have captured more than 50% of the global market for crystalline solar panels and the biggest solar panel producers are from China.CEEG is one of the top 15 Chinese solar module manfacturers and sells solar panels under the CEEG Brand.Like its name implies the CEEG Group has a major presnse in the electrical equipment market and 3 of its 4 divisions operate in this segment.The company is also listed on the NASDAQ under the CSUN symbol alongwith a host of other Chinese panel producers like Trina,Yingli,Suntech,Canadian Solar and others.CEEG’s power transformers and PV products have been qualified for CCC, UL and EU certifications.It recently lanuched the Quasar range of high efficiency solar panels.In 2004, CEEG got engaged in the PV industry and established China Sunergy (formerly CEEG Nanjing PV-Tech Co., Ltd).CEEG has 4 solar panel production factories and 600 MW of production capacity.CEEG was originally a solar cell producer and seller before getting into the manufacture of solar panels in 2009 though acquistions of 2 small solar module producers.
July 15, 2011
Phono Solar is a JV between Phono Technologies Switzerland and Sumec Group of China.Phono’s parent company SUMEC Group has been in the PV industry from early 2004. Sumec and Sinomach family of companies claim to have $15 billion in revenues each year.SUMEC Group Corporation (SUMEC), founded in 1978, is a key member of China National Machinery Industry Corporation (SINOMACH).SUMEC’s core business consists of shipbuilding and project contracting of complete equipment and engineering; the R&D, manufacturing and export of machinery and electric products including power tools, garden tools, power machinery
Phono Solar’s three production facilities will produce more than 500MW of PV Modules in 2011.The products are widely used in many fields such as power station, telecom, transportation, lightening, broadcasting, civil defense, marine etc.The company's products are made in China and marketed by the Swiss company under the Phono Solar Brand.The Company also sells micro wind turbines which are used in small residential installations.
July 10, 2011
Goldman Sachs Liquid Exchange Traded Scheme (GS Liquid BeES) is an open ended liquid scheme & was previously known as Liquid Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Liquid BeES). GS Liquid BeES is the first Liquid ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) in the world. It is a unique liquid fund that is listed and traded on the stock exchange just like a share.
The investment objective of GS Liquid BeES is to enhance returns and minimize price risk by investing in a basket of call money, short-term government securities and money market instruments of short maturities while maintaining safety and liquidity. It seeks to provide current income, commensurate with relatively low risk while providing a high level of liquidity, primarily through a portfolio of treasury bills, Government Securities, Call Money, Collateralised Lending & Borrowing Obligation (“CBLO”) /similar instruments, Repos and Reverse Repos, and other Money Market Instruments.
July 10, 2011
Nuclear Power has come under assault in the aftermath of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident with Nuclear becoming a four letter word.However Nuclear Energy cannot be ignored because its nuclear energy uses are unique in some applications and cannot be substituted by any other means.Nuclear Energy is responsible for generating almost 1/6th of the global production of electricity with Developed Countries like Japan,Europe and USA having 20% or more of their electricity being generated by Nuclear Fission.Currently 31 countries in the world have nuclear reactors producing electricity.The total installed nuclear generating capacity in the world is around 375 GW (WNA) with another 170 GW in planning g state and another 170 GW being proposed.Despite the massive opposition that nuclear power has run into,nuclear companies and nuclear power stocks are not going away soon.This is because of the massive installed base and the nuclear plans of emerging countries.For example Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia,UAE are going ahead with their nuclear power plans as are countries like India and Vietnam.
July 10, 2011
Mutual Fund Companies have seen a steady growth driven by the growing financial assets being generated by the fast growing Indian economy.But the Mutual Fund Industry like other sectors such as Real Estate and Telecom too has come under the spotlight for some illegal activity.While you can't call the industry corrupt because of some fraudulent activities it does raise questions on the industry ethics.Top Mutual Funds in the country like HDFC and L&T have been fined by the stock market regulator SEBI for front running.For those who don't understand what the term means,front running is an illegal activity whereby a fund manager or fund official makes personal gains by making trades on his account before doing a trade for the fund.This causes losses for the fund investor and is akin to stealing.However like other corrupt practices in the stock market industry,SEBI lets them go with small fines which don't deter more such frauds.It is also not unknown that some fund managers connive with company promoters and market operators to rig and do circular trading.Not only is this a problem,another massive problem with the industry is its underperformance as compared to the benchmarks.While earlier mutual funds were known to outperform the benchmarks like the Nifty,a recent Crisil study has dispelled this myth.Given these disadvantages of mutual fund ,it is time to invest in Indian ETFs though not a lot of variety exists in the Indian stock market yet.
July 10, 2011
Wave Energy is one of the niche Water Energy Technologies that is still in its infancy stage in terms of technology maturity.Wave Energy has been around a long time with around 350 patents being granted for this technology and around 200 startups working on this renewable energy form.Wave Energy basically derives power from the movement of waves to generate electricity or power.Wave Power exists due to the differences in the speed of ocean water and wind power.The energy is transferred by the Wind Energy to the Waves which can be utilized to generate power.A wide variety of wave energy generators like buoys,underwater devices are being developed to harness the power of the waves in a cost efficient manner.Wave Energy Research is concentrated mainly in the United Kingdom which has made tidal and wave power central to meeting its 2020 European goal for renewable energy.Edinburgh in UK has become a center of wave energy development and EMEC has developed Cornwall as an important site for demonstration of wave energy projects.Some of the wave power companies are listed on the stock market as well.Due to the technology immaturity ,most of these stocks are micro cap and not an investible class for big investors.
July 8, 2011
Solar Panels are fast becoming one of the fastest growing products for homes in the western world driven by the 75-80% reduction in the costs of solar panels in the last 3 years.The sharp reduction in the costs of solar panels has been driven by the improvement in efficiency of solar panels,increase in scale by Chinese solar panel manufacturers,solar equipment sophistication and advancements in the learning curveAlso the importance of Solar Energy keeps growing with the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster,Coal Mine Deaths,BP Oil Spill constantly reminding us the dangers of Coal,Oil and Nuclear Energy.On the other hand Solar Panels lead to no deaths directly or indirectly and are incapable of causing large scale disasters..Solar Panels these days are being made by a wide variety of manufacturers in different shapes and sizes.Different types of solar panels are also being made from different materials like silicon,CIGs,CdTe etc.Solar Panels are also finding uses in outdoor camping,boats,swimming pools,solar carports etc.Besides solar panels are also being used to power off grid systems in far off areas plus mobile phones and laptops.The advantages and uses of solar panels are growing by the day.Solar Power's greatest advantage is the declining cost which had made solar electricity from panels on par with grid retail electricity prices in places like Italy and Germany.With costs continuing to go down,its easy to see that solar panel generated power will reach the electricity prices in most places in the world in 2-3 years.
July 8, 2011
Reliance Gold ETF is an open-ended Gold Exchange Traded Fund. It started on 22nd November 2007. The investment objective is to seek to provide returns that closely correspond to returns provided by price of gold through investment in physical Gold and Gold related securities .The prices of Reliance God ETF is affected by several factors such as global gold supply and demand, investors’ expectations with respect to the rate of inflation, currency exchange rates, interest rates, etc. Minimum of one unit can be traded by the investors.The Creation Unit is 1000 units that is if you have 1 kg of gold ETF that is about Rs 26 lakhs you can exchange your paper gold into physical gold from the AMC.
July 8, 2011
GE is one of the biggest companies in the world and has one of the biggest Green businesses as well.GE is the most profitable wind turbine manufacturer and is one of the largest renewable energy developers in the globe as well.GE like other electrical and power conglomerates like Siemens has decided to invest billions of dollars into Green Energy.Till recently Solar Energy had gotten scant attention from GE just like Siemens too has not invested a lot.However the 50% CAGR rates of Solar Energy,the fast declining costs have made it imperative for GE to have a presence in this market.GE had bought a thin film solar company Prime Solar a few years ago to acquire the Cadmium Tellerium Technology which First Solar uses in its Solar Panels.
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