Blog
March 5, 2011
I have been consistently writing that Solar PV has leapfrogged far ahead of Solar Thermal Technology in the last couple of years.The entry of the low cost Chinese with huge scale and the fall in polysilicon costs have suddenly made the future survival of Solar Thermal Technology suspect.The Solar Thermal Advantages of energy storage is also overrated because it is cheaper to add energy storage to Solar PV as the following article shows.Note Solar PV has many other advantages of Solar Thermal anyway.The Rapidly Declining Costs of Solar PV in fact pose a massive threat to all other forms of Solar Technology including Thin Film which has recently seen a number of players gone bankrupt.The recent conversion of Solar Thermal Plants by Tessera,the losses being made by Solar Millenium due to delays are further evidence of the decline and possible obsolescence of Solar Thermal Technology.
March 5, 2011
Indian Privately Owned Power Utilities are furiously expanding their capacities as India looks to treble its Power Generation Capacity in the next decade.The major power companies like Adani Power and Reliance Power are giving Tata Power a tough fight for the position of the biggest private Indian Utility.While these companies cannot hope to overtake state owned giant NTPC in this decade,they may do so in the next one.Note some of these companies are expected to grow almost 20 times in the next 10 years.Here are the main contenders
Note most of the power plants being built in India are coal ones with the power providers aggressively buying up coal mines in Indonesia,Australia and South Africa to increase fuel security.However in case of any global disruptions,India remains very vulnerable.However India's policymakers are sleeping on this issue.It makes more sense to concentrate on those sources whose fuel security is high such as solar and wind power.Coal also faces the prospect of high carbon taxation as global warming becomes acute.Environmental issues related to power plants has already resulted in some being halted as local citizens agitate against the thermal plant's negative effects on livelihoods and health.
March 5, 2011
While I was tearing my hair out at the experience there were a couple of very funny episodes which highlights the complete lack of service quality
1) One of the Tata Indicom Engineers after seeing my laptop connect automatically to the neighbour's WiFi (I was using it temporarily) said that my Tata Indicom Internet was working fine (how the guy became an engineer seems a mystery,guess there is truth to industry studies that most Indian graduates are unemployable)
2) A Tata Indicom Webstie to give Customer Feedback on submission constantly gives an Error .The link (https://ttslemc.tatatel.co.in/EMC_FEEDBACK/TataIndicomFeedBackDetails.do?messageID=3727423) which was sent to me to "valuable inputs will go a long way in helping us deliver world class services" still does not work.Readers can try out the link also.
March 4, 2011
The Indian Government’s launch of the ambitious Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission(JNNSM) was done with much fanfare with a target of reaching 20 GW of Solar Capacity by 2022 under 3 phases from the 81 MW currently.While the government had the best intentions and had laid down a well defined 10 year plan with subsidy support for both Solar Thermal and Solar PV Technology,it has already run into problems.Due to high interest the government went in for bidding of projects which led to irrationally low bidding from unknown firms.This has put the entire exercise in question with the the biggest private utility saying JNNSM is a failure.Without extensions of deadlines it looks highly unlikely whether the 37 winners will actually put up the plants.
March 4, 2011
Income Inequality and unemployment amongst white collar workers is a massive growing under-appreciated problem in India and China.These countries despite growing tremendously have built in severe distortions which are only becoming bigger by the day.Graduates in both countries increasingly find a massive demand deficit for their services while income inequality grows bigger as billionaires build billion dollar houses amidst people earning less than $2 day.
March 4, 2011
Corruption in India seems to be throwing up a new character everyday with almost all the major institutions - judiciary,executive,corporates,bureaucrats,media being tainted by it.The latest to join the corruption bandwagon is the US Food MNC Kraft specifically its subsidiary Cadbury.Note Carbury is one the biggest chocolate brands in India and has been present in the Indian market for a long time.The Corruption Charges are said to be in minor in nature as SEC is probing whether Cadbury gave bribes to set up a manufacturing plant in India.I would be surprised if they managed to set up a plant in India without giving a bribe.India's bureaucrats are notoriously corrupt and the venality has only increased despite numerous scams and scandals being exposed.
March 4, 2011
The MarketWatch news column quotes a Citigroup analysis note that says that the Korean Stock Index Kospi level of 1960 incorporates an oil barrel prices of more than $115 .This is quite absurd since the stock market valuation at any point of time is a hugely complex function of a variety of structural,sentimental,cyclical factors.I have no doubt that the writers of the piece have done extensive analysis but the conclusion is so patently foolish that it earns the "Stupid Financial Analysis of the Day" award.
March 4, 2011
Solar Inverters are a crucial component of the overall solar system accounting for around 10% of the overall costs.Solar inverters connect the solar panels to the grid converting the DC to AC which is used by the grid.Solar inverters have become highly sophisticated with features like optimization and monitoring etc.The efficiency of solar inverters are a major factor in their purchase as well as the quality and reliability.Inverters comes in various sizes and can be as large as 1 MW for utility applications.Unlike Solar Panels,the Solar Inverter Market is much less crowded though competition is growing as the size of the market increases rapidly.The ~$2.1 billion market in 2009 with 7 GW of installations has increased by more than 130% to around $5 billion in 2010 as the solar panel demand globally increased to around 17 GW.Note Solar Inverter Companies have done much better as competition is much lower and the annual price declines in solar inverters has been much lower at around 10% compared to the 50% decline in solar panel in the last 2-3 years.Here is a list of the major solar power inverter companies
March 3, 2011
German Development Bank Kfw which is owned by the German government is planning to invest 800 million Euros in Indian Renewable Energy Sector.Note Kfw is one of the biggest funding institutions in Germany for renewable energy projects giving concessional interest rates.The Bank will use its extensive expertise in the alternative energy and energy efficiency areas to extend its business in India as well.Renewable Energy in India is expected to see a massive expansion in the next decade and will require massive amounts of debt and equity.Kfw alongwith other developmental institutions like ADB and World Bank have a big role to play.Note Debt is quite expensive in India and these institutions provide loans at a much cheaper rate making renewable energy projects viable.ADB has already formed a JV with NTPC and is looking to rescue JNNSM as well.IFC is funding numerous clean projects in India following its developmental mandate as well.
March 3, 2011
India may uses the planned $500 million to $1 Billion in Coal Taxes it expects to generate every year to build transmission lines for renewable energy.Note one of the main impediments for renewable energy is the lack of transmission capability on part of utilities to move clean energy from remote areas to urban demand centres.USA faces an acute problem in this regard and faces a massive debate on how to fund the power grid from windy areas to cities.India too faces a problem in this regard as renewable energy plants mainly wind and solar are to built in remote locations.Note India's Power Grid is very inadequate as large parts of the country lack electricity due to lack of distribution networks.
March 3, 2011
India is set to see a massive growth in solar energy in the next decade with the 81 MW of Solar Capacity expected to reach at least 20000 MW by 2022 if not more.India's JNNSM Policy and push for renewable energy by states like Gujarat,Maharashtra and Rajasthan should see massive investments in solar PV installation.While there are already solar cell and panel production,India lacks a strong base for manufacture of solar inverters which can cost upto 10% of the total cost of a solar project.
March 3, 2011
Alternative Energy in India saw significant growth in 2010 with the last 9 months of the year seeing capacity additions of 1800 MW which is almost 10% of the total installed capacity of 18500 MW.The growth in renewable energy was led by Wind Energy which forms almost 70% of the total renewable energy capacity in the country at around 13500 MW.The strong incentives given by both state and central government has led to the sharp growth of wind energy.Note Wind Energy is quite close to Gas based electricity price.India Needs at least 68 GW of Renewable Energy Capacity by 2020 to meet its RPS target of 15% set by CERC (note this is capacity only not hours of electricity).
March 3, 2011
Juwi,the German Renewable Energy EPC Company is setting up base in India following on the footsteps of other major Europeans companies Scott and Abengoa.Juwi is one of the largest solar EPC companies in the world with 800 million Euros in Revenues in 2010 and with operations in 15 countries.Note India's solar energy opportunity is one of the biggest in the 21st century and the number of solar companies has exploded.Other International Solar EPC Companies and Solar System Integrators like SunEdison have made major commitments to the Indian market.Juwi is looking at both setting up turnkey plants as well as O&M.Indian domestic companies suffer from a lack of experience in the solar development sector and entry of international companies should help disseminate best practices in solar project development and execution.
March 3, 2011
Solar Energy is the only form of Energy whose costs are continuously declining compared to other forms of Energy.This is one of the biggest advantages of Solar Power over other renewable and non-renewable forms of energy.Solar Energy costs have declined by over 50% in the last 2-3 years even as Coal,Oil,Gas and other Energy costs have gone up.While Wind Energy costs have declined in the last year the overall trend is increasing as the costs of copper and steel go up.This is one of the main reasons why solar energy demand has gone up by 150% in 2010.With solar costs going down by another 10% each year over the next few years,expect Solar Energy to grow at a further fast rate in the future as well after growing at 50% CAGR over the last decade.Here are some of the advantages of Solar Energy over other non-renewable energy forms
March 3, 2011
There are only 2 Solar Energy ETFs in the Market right now - TAN and KWT.Note buying solar ETF provides a less risky way of investing in solar energy as some stocks can dramatically underperform in this fast growing industry.However Solar ETFs will on the other hand perform much worse than the best performing stocks in the solar universe.This is because their holdings are also concentrated on some of the lesser quality companies.KWT and TAN are better investments for the less informed and less sophisticated investors.Amongst the 2 ETFs,KWT is the better option than TAN for a number of reasons which are described below.
March 2, 2011
India's Electricity is set to see a huge boom as the 8-9% economic growth rates require massive amounts of energy.India is planning to nearly treble its electricity capacity to almost 450 GW by 2020 from around 160 GW now which means a yearly addition of nearly 23 GW in the next decade.Currently India’s Electricity comes mostly from Coal and Hydro Based Energy.Almost 50% of Energy Requirements and 53% of the Electricity is generated from Coal.Despite Coal being the the Dirtiest Form of Energy,India has got little choice in the matter.Most of India’s upcoming Electricity Plants are based on Coal.Hydro Energy is generated mostly from India’s Northern Himalayan States.Renewable Energy forms only 7.7% of the Capacity with around 11 GW of the 16 GW from Wind Energy.Nuclear Energy is around 3% of the total capacity at around 4.5 GW.Here are the list of the major power utilities in the country which is currently dominated by the state run PSUs.However the next decade should see the rise of private electricity companies.
March 2, 2011
While the major solar energy companies are expanding rapidly as the solar industry grew by almost 150% in 2010,a number of non-solar MNCs have gotten into this sector.The massive growth of solar industry which has been vastly underestimated by policymaker and analysts have not been hidden from these giant companies.While a number of these companies have been present since a long time,some are entering the growing solar energy field for the first time.Some like BP have lost the plot and become minor players despite being top companies a few years ago.Shell has totally left the solar energy field selling its plant to Motech.Asian conglomerates and semiconductor companies have been the most aggressive in entering this area.Chemical companies too have shown interest in building polysilicon plants which build on their core competence.Others have entered the Solar Thermal Energy Field which reinforces their traditional strengths in building power plants and EPC work.Here is list of the top non-solar companies entering the solar sector.
March 2, 2011
Polysilicon or refined silicon is the raw material behind most of the world's consumer electronics.Polysilicon is used to make both solar and semiconductor silicon wafers.Silicon wafers are used in making chips which are used by the Intels and Samsungs of the world while Solar Wafers are used in making solar crystalline panels used in generating electricity from the sun.Most of the world's major solar energy companies used c-Si Technology in making solar panels.Polysilicon is an energy intensive process which requires cheap electricity.The polysilicon is produced mostly in the western countries like Japan,USA and Germany now.However the rise of solar panel producers in Asia has given rise to large volume Asian producers of polysilicon as well.Note Polysilicon production is concentrated in the hands of 8-9 companies unlike solar panel production which is done by hundreds of companies.This is a capital intensive process and requires around 2 years to complete a single plant.Semiconductors require higher purity levels of Polysilicon than the solar industry.The massive increase in demand from the solar industry has led to massive growth in poly production.Here are a list of the main polysilicon companies in the world
March 1, 2011
India's Transport Policy is an unmitigated disaster with traffic congestion frequently killing people.The lack of roads and traffic planning has made transport in Indian cities a daily monstrous headache for commuters.The use of modern transport which does not cause pollution and reduces congestion is the need of the hour.The government seems to be moving slowly in that direction.While MNRE had announced a capital subsidy for Green Transport earlier,the Finance Minister cut excise and custom duties on Green Vehicles as well.India's Union Budget did not have much for the Green Industry except a piffling Rs 200 crore fund for the environment and the cuts of duties for EVs.
March 1, 2011
Solar Wafer Companies are mainly concentrated in Asia specifically China and Taiwan.Cheap labour,lower land and capital costs as well as presence of major customers has made China the No.1 Solar Wafer Producer in the world.Despite most of the polysilicon being produced in Europe and USA,China leads the way in wafer production.Note semiconductor wafers in contrast are mainly produced in the developed countries like Japan,USA and Germany.The structural forces of the crystalline silicon industry is forcing vertical integration with cell producers making wafers and wafer production companies making cells.However there are a few companies which predominantly concentrate on supply solar wafers to solar cell manufacturers.Here is the list of the main solar wafer producers which have shown stunning growth in the last few years.
March 1, 2011
Solar Thermal Technology has been facing tough competition from its sister Solar PV Technology in recent times.Despite strong government subsidies and support,numerous drawbacks have contributed to this Technology losing out to Solar PV in a number of projects in the US notably by Tessera.However a number of startups and big conglomerates continue to make huge investments in this technology.Spain and US are leaders in implementation of this Solar Technology type,however others like India and China are to building CSP plants as their energy needs continue to grow.Note like Solar PV,there are a number of different technology types for CSP like Power Tower,Parabolic Troughs,linear fresnel technology and Stirling Engines.Here is a list of the most important Solar Thermal Companies (Technology Providers cum Project Developers)
February 28, 2011
Crystalline Solar Cell Suppliers are fast disappearing due to the changing dynamics of the global c-Si Solar Panel Industry.With vertical integration becoming imperative as margins and prices get squeezed,independent solar cell suppliers are having a tough time.Increasing raw material costs in terms of higher polysilicon and solar wafer prices and competition from numerous players has decreased the number of pure play solar cell suppliers.However a few of the top solar cell producers continue to grow and flourish though they are also entering into other segment of the PV solar supply chain.Most of the independent solar cell suppliers are from Taiwan and some from China.European solar cell producers have mostly disappeared due to the high cost base of the European factories.Note this list is mostly composed of solar cell producers who don't have big module making operations.You can find a list of the top solar energy companies most of which make solar cells as well.
February 28, 2011
Indian Stock Markets are full of stock market manipulators and operators trying perennially to loot the small investor with the regulator SEBI mostly turning a blind eye.Pump and Dump IPO issues,circular stock rigging in small caps,corporate governance issues in even large companies are quite endemic.Investing in the Indian markets is a very hazardous activity for the small investor.Its not only the Indian companies but also large reputed MNCs who also keep pulling fast ones on the minority shareholders.The Cairn-Vedanta deal is a recent example where the promoters are rewarded at a higher premium in takeovers through legal shenanigans by large corporate groups.
February 28, 2011
Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) are one of the most important tools for promoting alternative energy in India.The Central Regulatory Commission (CERC) alongwith energy exchanges has been working on making trading in RECs happen since the last one year.Trading in RECs started last week with small amounts of REC trading at the Delhi based Indian Energy Exchange.Note most of the volumes are expected to be traded in the July-Sept Wind Season and October Bagasse planting season.While only small amounts were traded as physical trade is only allowed for 2 hours on last Wednesday of every month,volumes trading should start in 2012.The IEX is targeting around $8 billion in REC trade by 2017 as Renewable Energy in India grows at a faster rate.
February 28, 2011
The Reserve Bank of India has clarified that Indian individuals cannot trade in the forex markets under FEMA rules.Note a number of Indian brokers and forex companies were advertising heavily promising big returns to retail investors.Note forex markets are extremely tough to trade even for professional traders for institutions.For retail investors they are a sure shot way to lose money in large amounts.Note forex markets offer much higher leverage than normal Futures Equity markets.Being an effectively zero sum game and requiring high amounts of knowledge ,forex markets are just too sophisticated for retail investors in my view.But they are quite lucrative for forex trading portals and companies whose main target semgent are retail investors.
February 28, 2011
South Korea is one of the biggest shipbuilders with major companies like Daewoo,Hyundai Heavy and Samsung.However its being beaten down by the low cost Chinese companies which are using cheaper capital and lower labor costs to press their advantage.South Korean Shipbuilders have been trying to diversify into offshore wind energy in order to safeguard their revenues.However they face tough competition in this renewable energy sector as well from incumbent wind turbine compaeis as well as Chinese WTG companies like Sinovel,Goldwind and others.Now the South Korean government is helping them with a 300 billion won research fund.This fund will be used to do R&D into building of "Green Ships" which are becoming the new growth segment.
February 28, 2011
The Indian Stock Market Regulator SEBI has been seen doing nothing against blatant market manipulation and stock rigging scams.Mid cap and Small Cap Stocks are havens for rigging by promoters and stock brokers as SEBI seemingly does nothing.Even in the primary market,junk IPOs rule the roost with even the recent correction failing to see crap stocks making a debut (Sudar Garmets,Fineotex,Omkar etc.).To anyone with a modicum of common sense it is apparent that such low quality companies could not raise money without manipulating the markets.However SEBI in its infinite wisdom remains blind to this.Stock brokers like Ashika,Dangi continue to operate unimpeded despite being indicted for scamming.Even reputed stock brokers are involved in underhand and shady dealings.However SEBI does nothing indirectly encouraging fleecing of small and retail investors.Not that big investors like Goldman,GMO are immune to fly by night operators as well.
February 28, 2011
Corruption in India has taken massive proportions with a new scam being unearthed almost every day .However this has not metered the architects of corruption in India from continuing their looting spree.While the 2G Telecom Scam throws up new looting revelations,newer corruption scams are also competing for newspaper inches.Investing in the Indian stock markets is at best a hazardous activity with most of the promoters trying to fleece shareholders.Mid cap and small cap scams have already resulted in massive losses.Now investing in India's largest companies belonging to the main Nifty Index has also become dangerous.While the scam related to the ADAG Group has already resulted in 80-90% fall from the peaks of the companies of this group,others are joining in.Nalco which is a government owned integrated aluminum producer was thought to be one of the safest companies to invest in.However even this company has fallen.The CEO of the company was found taking bribes in the form of gold bricks in return for favors.
February 21, 2011
China based GCL Poly is the biggest solar wafer producer in the world wresting the crown from LDK Solar in 2010.GCL Poly is now set to grow even bigger in 2011 raising its wafer capacity almost 85% making it No.1 by far.Note solar wafers are made up of polysilicon and used as raw materials for making solar cells which generate electricity from the sun.They are very similar to semiconductor wafers which are used to make the basic building blocks for electronics.GCL Poly has seen a massive rise from 2010 when it started to producer solar wafers.The company's strategy of setting up plants near its major customers have landed it major deals and lower the cost in the supply chain.
February 20, 2011
Solar Thin Film Technology has been growing rapidly despite falling costs of the mainstream Photovoltaic Crystalline Silicon Technology.While a number of Weaker Hands in Thin Film have downed shutters,Thin Film Producers continue to grow and expand.The massive growth potential of Solar Energy makes it possible for both of these PV technologies to flourish.Thin Film Technology unlike c-Si has a number of variants.Amorphous Silicon (a-Si),Copper Indium Gallium Sulphide (CIGs) and Cadmium Tellurium (Cd-Te) are the 3 main types of Thin Film Technology.There are a number of manufacturers of all of these 3 types of Technology.CIGs Technology is said to have the most potential in improving efficiency and competing with c-Si,however Cd-Te is currently the top dog as the world's biggest solar producer First Solar currently uses this technology.a-Si Technology is not that hot with low efficiencies however Oerlikon and Sharp are pushing ahead with developing this technology.Here is a list of the world's top Thin Film Companies.
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