Blog
February 7, 2011
Indian Stocks Market are a very difficult place to invest despite claims to the contrary which will be made by institutional investors.The all pervasive corruption present amongst most of the company managements makes bottom up stock picking a tough call.Even institutional "smart" investors like Goldman,GMO frequently get tripped by fly by night operators.Market operators blatantly manipulate stocks while the primary market is a "pump and dump" heaven.However the Indian growth story has fooled fund managers from outside to keep investing into the story.I have written in the blog numerous pitfalls present in investing in India.Some of these are coming home to roost as the Indian stock markets have fallen by more than 10% in 2011 despite other markets making new highs.Here are the top 5 Headwinds facing the Indian markets in 2011.
February 7, 2011
The European Solar Companies have found things going tough in 2009 as the solar market changed radically with the Lehman crisis.As the prices of the raw material Polysilicon crashed and Chinese competition increased,these companies started bleeding red ink in a prodigious manner.The high cost structure of these companies with factories in Europe stood naked against the competition.With high debt loads,there was a high change that these companies would go bankrupt.Most of them like Q-Cells,REC started to move manufacturing to Asia while Solarworld moved to Europe.Other smaller companies muddled through.However a spectacular 2010 growth in world solar demand has brought new life into these companies.With capacity constrained,even their higher prices could be absorbed by solar installers.These companies have reported much better 2010 results with Solarworld and REC leading the way.
February 7, 2011
Italian Electricity Regulator really shook the global solar market saying that approximately 6 GW of Solar Installations were done in the country in 2010 up almost 500% from 2010.While 2 GW were installed and connected in 2010,4 GW worth of application were submitted by 50,000 installations which were installed but not connected.This means that that Italy's target of 8 GW in 2020 was almost fully met in 2010 itself.I had written that Italian Solar Feed in Tariff Subsidy Cuts for 2011 will fail to stop the Boom in Solar Demand and the 2020 target would be met much earlier.But 2010 was not in my wildest projection.The combination of high sunlight,high electricity rates,falling solar module prices and attractive feed in tariff by the government has made investing in solar in Italy a hugely profitable venture.So 6 GW is not totally impossible given the massive supply growth seen in solar panels.Every solar company in the world had been shipping to capacity making it a mystery as to what was the source of such demand.Italy might prove to be the answer.
February 7, 2011
These 3 Indian companies DB Realty,Sun TV,Spice Jet have very little to relate to each other.One is a real estate company,one is one of the fastest growing media companies while the third one is one of the biggest low cost airlines in which Wilbur Ross was an investor.The common thread running through these companies is their association with a regional political party in India at the center of a massive billion dollar telecom scam in India.The leader of this party Raja was recently sacked from his post as the telecom minister and has now earned the dubious distinction of becoming the first minister to get jail time from his own government.Corruption Scandals have ruled the roost in the last 6 months frequently leading to huge stock price drops.Small Cap,Mid cap scandals,insider trading,bribery rings have all been documented by this blog which led to huge losses for investors.
February 7, 2011
Switzerland is one of the richest,most developed countries in the world hosting one of the biggest financial centre in the world and home to two of the largest banks UBS and Credit Suisse.Switzerland has been long been regarded as a neutral safe haven for money with the its currency Swiss Franc thought to be a risk averse store of value.Switzerland is known for its excellent banks which provide a high quality of service and safety.But the less publicized fact is why this small mountainous country attracts trillions of dollars in wealth from around the world.Its because of its secrecy laws which don't allow the name of the bank account holder to be revealed unless its proven that it is due to criminal misconduct.This Law has made Switzerland the safe haven for all kinds of criminal wealth including drugs,guns,prostitution,genocide etc.The recent spat between USA and Switzerland over the revealing of US tax evaders brought this anomaly into the open.Switzerland is the only large country to have such a law which promotes crime and tax evasion globally.
February 7, 2011
The Chinese Penetrate the US Solar Utility Market – exclusive playground of First Solar and Sunpower
The US Solar Utility Market has been the preserve of the 2 largest US Solar Module Players Sunpower and First Solar.While other Solar Panel Makers have won small deals,these 2 companies have dominated the US Utility Market so far.Sunpower has been very successful in the commercial,municipal and utility segments winning a huge number of deals even as its residential dominance evaporated.The bigger Chinese solar producers like Trina,Yingli,Suntech had already taken over the residential market in California with their much cheaper prices.Now even the larger utility market is under threat from the low cost companies from Asia.Note upstream producers like LDK and GCL Poly are also targeting the system development market in US through acquisitions and alliances.The 250 MW Sempra Generation solar plant being built in Arizona will source Suntech modules and will be completed by 2013.This is a huge order win by Suntech which is the largest module producer in 2010 and could see other Chinese producers using this as a template to push out Sunpower and First Solar.
January 25, 2011
The Indian government has been rocked by a series of corruption scandals which have been documented in this blog.The scandals have not only touched the political sphere but also the stock markets.The scams have not stopped with new ones being reported almost on a daily basis but no convictions have happened.The corrupt and the guilty keep on going about their business as usual as the Indian ruling party thinks it can cure corruption with words.The Congress Party in its annual meeting had said that removing corruption would become its top priority with expeditious proceedings against public officials in graft cases.However the law has been criticized as having too many loopholes even before being passed.Even the actions of the government does not inspire much confidence.The Commonwealth Games which was a much publicized national corruption scandal has yet to see a single prosecution.The guilty officials have managed to all get bail with the Suresh Kalmadi the scandal in chief goes about his business as the powerful ruler of the Indian Olympic Committee.All the government has done is to remove him from the post of the Chairman of the Organizing Committee of the CG .Note this is already a dead body with the Games over a month ago.Note Kalmadi is a leading party member and despite his obvious corruption the government refuses to move against him.
January 25, 2011
United Kingdom is one the worst countries in the world in terms of its commitment towards Global Warming.Like Canada and USA,UK has been a notable laggard in the Green Energy area.It has one of the smallest percentages of its Energy being derived from clean sources.The government has not changed its policies too much as well despite its "green posturing".Solar FIT cuts which started in April 2010 were put under review by the authorities in as little as 6 months .This was despite only 10 MW of solar installation a month compared to the 500 MW average for Germany.In offshore wind power,UK is regarded as the leader with the largest installed capacity.However the growth in even Wind Energy has been slow and halting.Also offshore wind power is not the most mature of green technologies out there,so don't expect any miracles in Renewable Energy growth through this source.
January 25, 2011
The Spanish Government faces multiple lawsuits over its Royal Decrees which cut the Feed in Tariff for Solar PV Installations Retroactively.These laws were passed in Dec 2010 as part of the comprehensive review of the Renewable Energy Subsidies by the government.While Wind Energy and Solar Thermal Subsidies were changed earlier,the controversy over the Solar PV subsidies had forced the government to delay the change to the last minute.These changes were strongly opposed by the Solar PV Industry Association ASIF which has earlier called the measure as "industry killing".These cuts over the next 3 years would be done through a "backdoor approach" in which the subsidies would be restricted for a only a few hours for the Solar PV plants.
January 25, 2011
India's Fossil Fuel Subsidies have led to a massive growth of the petrol and diesel mafia in the country.India gives subsidies on diesel,kerosene and cooking gas through its state owned petro/gas companies like BPCL,IOCL,HPCL etc.These subsidies have been given for a long time and have led to the growth of a parallel black economy in these products.They not only lead to capital misallocation but also to the massive illegal profits for a few.It is a well known fact that all petroleum pump owners adulterate petroleum ( which power most of the cars) with subsdized diesel and kerosene.This massive racket earns millions of dollars (if not billions) for a network of company officials,pump owners,government bureaucrats and politicians.The mafia is so strong and powerful that it thinks nothing of burning alive a senior police official.The racketeers are so rich and well connected that despite common knowledge nothing gets done about it.
January 25, 2011
Inflation in India is raging at double digit levels as it is in most of the other countries in Asia.While Food Inflation has been hogging the headlines as Onion Prices become costlier than the daily earnings of the majority of Indians,other commodities are becoming expensive as well.Tyre Companies in India have seen their margins and profits collapse on the back of higher natural rubber prices.This is despite the explosive growth being seen in the automobile sector in India.JK Tyres and Ceat reported their quarter results and both were equally bad with stock prices taking a major hit.Consumer giant HLL which is a subsidiary of the Unilever Group and the largest consumer company in India also saw its stock price tumble.HLL too has been hurt by higher input commodity costs.While volume growth was excellent,the margins got compressed as input prices increased faster than output prices.Note the Indian stock market has fallen more than 10% of its peak even as developed markets are seeing higher peaks.Other Asian markets like Indonesia,Thailand and others too have fallen as high inflation hurts the prospects of companies here.The Central Bank in India RBI raised the intrest rates by 25 bps which some consider as too low.Like other central banks in Asia,India too seems helpless to fight the inflationary pressures brought upon by the higher commodity prices fueled by Bernake money printing.
January 13, 2011
The Indian Solar Energy Policy JNNSM has been beset with more than its fair share of problems even before completing its first phase.Despite amibtious plans to set up 20 GW of Solar Energy Capacity by 2022,the Policy Support and Subsidy has come under fire from all directions.The First Phase of JNNSM has auctioned 150 MW of Solar PV Capacity to 30 Developers in blocs of 5 MW each.This led to irrational bidding by mostly unknown and bit players which has led many to question to the ultimate viability of these projects.Note the Solar Thermal Bidding has been equally as disastrous with bidding leading to very low tariffs for the winning developers.
January 13, 2011
USA recently signed a Military Law which obliges the US Defense Forces to buy Solar Panels which are made in the USA.This "Buy American" proposal directly contradicts US actions and policy which advocates free trade in Green Energy.The US Steelworkers Trade Union recently filed a petition with the US Administration against subsidies being given to the Green Industry by China.US government officials also spoke against the "domestic content" requirements of the Indian Solar Subsidy Policy JNNSM.However when it comes to their own solar panel procurement,the US government has foolishly forced its military forces to buy USA made panels.Not that this will help in boosting the US industry too much,as a number of foreign solar panel producers like Solarworld,Suntech already have module making factories in the United States.Also it remains doubtful about how many solar panels the US Military will buy in the coming years.It will remain a fraction of the global solar demand.Instead of supporting US Solar companies like Evergreen Solar,Energy Conversion Devices which are fighting to survive,the administration has given billion dollar loans to a Spanish Solar Thermal Producer.
January 12, 2011
Sunpower has been the dog of the solar market in 2010 as competitive pressures from low cost Chinese companies have made investors question the long term sustainability of the company.But Sunpower has managed to survive with some smart deals like the manufacturing JV with AUO and focusing on the solar project development.Sunpower makes the world's most efficient solar crystalline panels but comes at a much higher cost.This has led to erosion of its marketshare as cutthroat Asian companies have ruthlessly cuts prices and costs of solar panels.Sunpower has lost its dominant position in the US residential market with major Chinese companies like Trina,Suntech,Yingli and Canadian Solar winning large chunks.However Sunpower management has been a trier all along with its management constantly looking for ways to survive and proper .It has also started using less efficient solar panels for its projects as part of its strategy to compete.
January 12, 2011
Asset Financing for utility grade projects accounted for $128 billion while a substantial amount was also raised for Green IPOs notably Enel Green Power,Goldwind,Datang,Longyuan etc.The figure does not include M&A figures not that there were any big bang acquisitions though a number of M&A activities took place in the Smart Grid space.Government individually ramped up the subsidies for Green Industries despite a failure to arrive at a meaningful global agreement to reduce carbon emissions in the Copenhagen Meet.Most of the investments tool place as countries increasingly jockey for the top spot in the emerging Green Industry.Conglomerates like Samsung,GE,Mitsubishi,Siemens have made Green Industry the focus of their management focus and investment leading to the astounding 39% growth.Note Green Advocates have said that $500 billion in annual investments will be required by 2020 to restrict carbon emissions to a tolerable level.
January 12, 2011
China using its massive foreign exchange horde to buy commodity assets around the world is an old story by now.It is now also getting into the act in the Green Energy area as China's state owned chemical group Blue Star has bought Norwegian environment chemical company Elkem from the Orkla conglomerate.Elkem is one of the largest silicon metal producers in the world and makes a solar grade polysilicon through a specialized low cost process.Orkla which is also the 40% owner of one of the world's largest silane and polysilicon producers Renewable Energy Corporation (REC) had been looking out for some time to sell Elkem.China has not been a big producer of polysilicon which is the main raw material for producing silicon based semiconductors and silcion based solar panels.The massive demand for polycrstalline modules has resulted in it being the main demand driver for polysilicon.
January 12, 2011
About 800 jobs in the Solar Industry will be lost directly to China as the USA administration has failed to support its established solar companies.Massachusetts had supported Evergreen with $58 million in subsidies but it was not enough for Evergreen to compete against the ongoing subsidies received by the strong Chinese players who have captured almost 70% of the global market in a few short years.The other US solar companies like Sunpower and First Solar are surviving by manufacturing most of their solar panels in Malaysia and other places.The recent "Buy American" Pentagon Law may not help all that much as module making is a low value add activity already being done by European and Chinese players in the USA.In the complicated supply chain of global manufacturing its difficult to understand who ultimately benefits and loses from such provisions.Note most of the polysilicon going inside the wafers and cells made in Asia are imported from USA and Europe.
December 21, 2010
France recently halted its solar subsidy program for 3 months for solar installations under 3 kw as it was deluged with a large number of applications.Solar Feed in Tariffs are quite generous for certain type of solar panel installations like BIPV and greenhouses.This combined with rapidly falling solar panel prices primarly due to low cost Chinese manufacturing has made the business extremely lucrative.Note France is not the first country to see a massive flood of solar applications.Spain,Czech,Germany,Australia have faced problems with solar feed in tariff programs mainly because of poor design by slow moving bureaucrats.However most of these countries have never blamed cheap Chinese panel imports for their badly designed programs.Germany which is the undisputed solar market leader did for a while raise the Chinese bogey but it was for a short while.Anyone with a little understanding of the solar industry would know that almost 50% of the value is created in installation which is all done locally.Also most of the polysilicon raw material is made in the West as also most of the equipment used in producing panels in China.
December 21, 2010
Dongfang Electric Corporation,China's largest power equipment producer has bagged major contracts in India.Dongfang Electric is the 3rd biggest Wind Turbine Producer in China as well and has managed to bag a 276 MW $203 billion WTG supply contract with Abhijeet Group .This is the first major contract wind in the Wind Equipment Sector for a Chinese company and could be start of a major trend.Dongfang has also won a small a massive $2.5 billion contract to supply 6. GW of super critical coal equipment to KSK Energy. Note Chinese companies have become the low cost leaders in the Wind Equipment Industry and sell much below Western competitors.At almost $700,000/MW,the Turbine order is a steal for the Abhijeet Group and cannot be matched by Indian or Western players.Leading WTG companies from the West like Vestas and Gamesa are reeling from Chinese competition and slowdown in Western markets.Suzlon too has been affected as Korean shipbuilders and Chinese wind producers have become major players.Using domestic content requirements and technology transfer,Chinese companies have become top global producers from zero presence just 5 years ago.
December 21, 2010
The Dollar is being relentlessly attacked by Bears due to massive QE program unleashed by the US Fed.However the US Dollar continues to be a safe refuge in many parts of the world.For countries affected by major politicial and economic problems,dollar is looked upon a safe haven for capital preservation.Many of these places have a history of high inflation and major political upheavals.In these places,Gold and Dollar are looked upon as equals for preserving wealth during times of chaos.Vietnam serves as a reminder where even citizens of relatively fast growing stable economies look upon as Dollar as a rock of stability.The South East Asian country has seen high inflation in recent times and numerous devaluations of its currency.The Communist led country has tried to replicate China in many of its policies some of which have backfired.The recent scandal and debt default of a major government owned company has shaken the confidence of investors.With high inflation and depleting foreign reserves
December 21, 2010
India's Agriculture Sector account for only a miniscule percentage of GDP and growth,however most of India's population continues to depend on it.Despite rapid growth of the services and industries sector as globalization leads to assimilation of foreign technology and practises,agriculture continues to live in medieval times. India's Food Supply Chain leads to massive waster and inefficiency with 30% of India's vegetable and fruit produce being wasted.This is criminal in a country where most of the children go hungry.However corporatization has been repelled by vested interests leading to a the sorry situation.Food inflation has seen double digits since last year and despite a better harvest year,some food prices are touching the stratosphere.The inadequate supply chain leads to periodic shortages of key food items used by Indian as part of the daily diet.
December 20, 2010
India's top leaders don't have to suffer from the daily travails of monstrous transport problems as their security convoys have the roads cleared for them.Even a minor functionary has red lights blazing on the top of their security cars and flouting all traffic rules as policemen salute and clear the way.There is no concern about the plight of normal people who on top of the daily traffic jams have to face an additional ordeal due to the stoppage of vehicles for the passage of the VIP entourage.Even ambulances and emergencies are not spared as a person died of a heart attack after getting stuck for 30 mins.Note people dying in traffic jams has become a normal thing in India these days as serpentine traffic jams make it almost impossible for ambulances to transport time critical patients on time.Indian cities have become traffic hells as motorists fail to follow any traffic rule or regulation.Policemen trying to correct errant drivers are frequently beaten up by taxi/auto unions .Red lights are not followed by a lot of the vehicles and traffic rules exist only on paper.Huge numbers of casualties are reported every year which are easily preventable.But for a totally corrupt bureaucracy and police,these problems are not a concern at all.
December 15, 2010
Rare Earth Metals promise to be a continuing geopolitical drama for the coming few years as Chinese monopoly over these crucial raw materials continues.Japan has already been at the receiving end of a Chinese exports embargo once and has its companies scattering to secure rare earth mineral resources in varied places like India,Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Vietnam.Hitachi is looking to increase recycling of rare earth minerals while other companies too are looking to optimize and reuse these metals.USA is currently less susceptible to rare earth disruptions as its requirements are quite low and anyway it imports most of the products using rare earth in finished form.
December 15, 2010
Germany is almost certain to cut the solar feed in tariff in 2011 on top of the regular 13% decrease.Note Germany is the largest solar market in the world by far and installed an astounding 8 GW of solar panels in 2010.With almost 18 GW of total solar installations,the German solar energy capacity is almost half of the world's capacity despite bad conditions for solar energy.Germany had set a target of around 4-5 GW of solar energy this year in the upper case and this has been vastly exceeded as solar module price cuts have made it attractive to install solar panels.
December 15, 2010
USA has opposed India’s Local Content Requirements for the Federal Solar Energy JNNSM program.Note according to the JNNSM rules,solar panels will have to be produced in […]
December 14, 2010
Posco,one of world's largest steel producers has been trying to enter the solar market like its other Korean brethren.Note South Korea has been really pushing the Green Industry in the country giving all sorts of incentives to Wind Energy,Electric Vehicles,Solar Energy etc.Korean conglomerates have responded by making huge investments into all sorts of Green Sectors.LG and Samsung have already established crystalline solar cells lines alongwith Hyundai.Hanwha has made a big bang acquisition of the 4th largest Chinese module producer Solarfun while OCI Polysilicon is on its way to become the 2nd largest producer of polysilicon in the world.Posco made its intention known about entering the solar market when it made a play for the Norwegian poly producer Elkem.This was a surprising decision considering that Posco's core strenght of steel making has little to do with production of polysilicon.
December 14, 2010
India has been plagued with a large number of scams and scandals in recent days.Not that it has made much difference to the functioning of politicians and bureaucrats.India's Agriculture Minister was blatantly defending favored business interests while India's PM seems more interested in Big Business Privacy rather than tackling corruption.The Stock Market after falling for a couple of days due to increasing number of stock market scandals,has returned to normal.However the Indian politicians keep shocking the country with even more and more brazen acts of corruption and nepotism.
December 14, 2010
Marubeni on the other hand is looking to focus its energy on the crucial Water Service Sector be expanding its footprint in emerging markets.Water Service is a great growth sector due to numerous demand drivers like increasing population,larger per capita requirements,decreased supply.There is already a lot of theories floating around that the next big wars in the 21st century will be due to water shortages.Marubeni has plans to spend around $300 million in acquisitions in foreign markets as it looks to increase its customer base to 10 million.Note Marubeni will be helped by the Japanese government which gives considerable aid and soft loan for water infrastructure projects in developing countries.Note French companies Suez and Veolia are the biggest water service companies in the world.
December 14, 2010
Using the same logic,I had questioned the massive amount of USA taxpayer money being given as a cash grant to build almost 4-5 GW of Solar Thermal Plants in California.Most of these solar thermal projects were approved in the last 6 months of 2010 so that they could be eligible for the Treasury Cash Grant under Rule 1603.I seem to have been vindicated quite early with 2 of these giant solar thermal projects being developed by Tessera Solar have run into trouble.The CEO of the company has already left and many of the employees have been fired.Strange for a company that has won multi billion projects in hand.The parent Irish company NTR is reportedly looking to shelve the plants as it does not have enough money for 5% of the total project costs required before 2010 end.
December 14, 2010
Taiwan which had set a cap restricted solar feed in tariff program in 2009 is set to change the subsidies to reflect the decreasing costs of solar energy.Note Taiwan is one of the biggest solar cell producers in the world,next only to China.A number of its world class companies like TSMC and AUO have made major investments into solar energy recently.It already has big pureplay solar cells companies with Gintech and Motech amongst the top 10 world solar cell producing companies.A big domestic market is a good testing ground for new companies and technologies.Taiwan is now set to change renewable energy subsidies for wind and solar energy.Solar Energy subsidy for 2011 will be lowered while for wind energy it will be increased.Renewable Energy in Taiwan - Feed in Tariffs Wind to be strangely Increased while for Solar Sensibly Decreased
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