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November 15, 2010
India's 150 MW Solar Allocation to PV Technology has seen overbidding upto 10 times and the winners will be decided based upon the discounting on the Rs 17.91/Kwh (40c/KwH).The discounting promises to be clearly be irrational and loss making as Large Conglomerates and Integrated Solar Companies fight with each other to win projects at any cost.Feed in Tariffs across the world has only worked out well where there is no discounting or bidding mechanism.In case of bidding,especially in immature nascent markets,the winners of the projects end up as the losers.Renewable Energy also ends up on the losing side as many of these projects are not completed or have to be restructured defeating the entire purpose of the Subsidy Scheme.India's Solar Energy Sector promises to be one of the biggest energy opportunities in the 21st Century.However this will require a very smart subsidy strategy by the government
November 15, 2010
First Solar,the US based Cadmium Tellurium (Cd-Te) is the lowest cost panel producer in the world today if you don't include any penalty for low efficiency.Even if you penalize the Cd-Te Technology for its lower efficiency vis-a-vis the higher efficiency crystalline technology,First Solar is clearly the leader with a core cost of 74c/watt.The company has a roadmap of reducing the cost to 52c/watt by 2014 and given its track record it seems quite achievable.In Cd-Te,some new competitors have claimed even lower costs than First Solar but they have yet to prove it in large scale production.General Electric,Abound Solar are some of the other Cd-Te players which are planning commercial production in a year or two.But with around 2 GW of capacity,they will have a lot of catching up to do.
November 14, 2010
IREO,a new Real Estate Company which is making waves in India's National Capital Region (NCR) with glitzy projects has now come under the tax scanner for illegal fund inflows from tax havens of Mauritius and Cyprus.It is alleged that black money from India has been roundtripped through these tax havens in the guise of Private Equity Money.It is an open secret that Black Money from India finds its way back to India through tax havens in the form of foreign investment when it just a roughtripping of domestic money.The figure quoted is around $1.5 billion of illegal money pouring into 26 companies associated with IREO.The company came into focus during the Commonwealth Scam and is linked to an Opposition Party leader.As usual their are denials,media circus and the whole thing will end as it does all the time with Nothing Happening.
November 14, 2010
The South Korean government is the most aggressive administration when it comes to establishing a Green Economy of the future.The Koreans have established the biggest Green Stimulus as a percentage and are following it up with massive investment in different parts of the Green Economy.Korean Chaebols LG,Hyundai,Samsung,Daewoo,Posco,SK Energy,Hanwha have taken the cue from their home country in charting out an ambitious roadmap in solar,wind,green vehicles.Hyundai has ramped up investment in the Solar Energy sector tying up with Glass Giant Saint Gobain,while LG and Samsung are going it alone putting up facilities to produce crystalline solar panels.Hanwha has bought a big Chinese solar panel producer while Daewoo is setting up WTF facilities.
November 13, 2010
However Solar Capacity in the Industry has increased rapidly particularly in Taiwan and China.Besides Semiconductor and LCD Heavyweights like AUO and TSMC have made huge investments into Solar Production.Korean Companies are too making a strong entry into the already crowded segment.Despite some capacity build in the wafer and module parts of the supply chain,Taiwan remains largely a cell producer.Compared to the integrated Chinese producers like Trina,Yingli,LDK and others,Taiwanese Solar Makers are vulnerable to sharp price cuts.They depend on European customers who are largely uncompetitive and would face huge pressures with the decline in the German market.Chinese producers have much lower costs due to their vertical integration which currenly most Taiwanese lack except Motech.Taiwanese Cell Capacity is set to increase manifold next year from the current 5 GW.Most of the Tier 2 Cell Producers would be running empty while even Tier 1 players will see a sharp decrease from this year.
November 13, 2010
Siemens has planned to increase its Environmental Revenues to Euro 40 Billions by 2014 which is quite a big jump considering the large base.GE is its biggest competitor which is also rapidly increasing investment and research into Renewable Energy.Areva,ABB,Samsung,LG,Hyundai,Toshiba,Sharp,Panasonic,Mitsubishi are other industrial giants looking to rapidly increase revenue from Clean Technology.Siemens has a definite technological and incumbent advantages however the competition is quite formidable.Siemens has made important wins recently in the field of high speed railways,new generation high voltage DC electricity transmission,offshore wind etc.But it lacks size and scale in the fields of nuclear and solar energy and has little presence in the area of Energy Storage as well.While Siemens has bought Soliel in the Solar Thermal field,it lacks a Solar PV product portfolio.Siemens however remains a good long term safe green investment in a volatile cleantech sector.
November 13, 2010
Solar Energy Future Growth has been vastly underestimated by policy makers and analysts but private companies are recognized the huge potential.India's JNNSM Policy which is meant to jumpstart India's Solar Energy has drawn huge interest from both domestic and foreign companies.The number of Solar Companies in India are growing at a rapid pace attracted by the huge opportunity.While starting troubles like project financing of debt etc are present,the long term growth potential of Solar Energy in India is tremendous.Global Industrial Giants like GE,Siemens have already established or in the process of investing huge sums of money to capitalize on this Green Trend.Now French Giant Areva has joined them.Note Areva is the global leader in nuclear equipment technology and is not known for its prowess in Solar and Wind Energy.However the company is making a play in Solar Thermal Technology where it hopes to use its existing skills and knowledge.Areva had acquired US startup Ausra which had fallen on hard times earlier.However Areva has not won too many Solar Thermal Projects in the recent past.However things may change starting with India
November 13, 2010
Australia has shortlisted 8 projects with 4 Solar PV and 4 Solar Thermal Projects for its Solar Flagship Program which will be decided in 2011.BP Solar with 150 MW and Suntech/Infigen with 195 MW are on the shortlist.The other 2 companies are energy utilities which are proposing to use Cd-Te Panels ( I think from First Solar).Note both of these energy utilities are small and might face problems in fund raising and execution.The firms shortlisted for the Solar Thermal Projects don't inspire much confidence either.The selection procedure and how the subsidy will be disbursed has ran into controversy with accusations of bias and partiality.WA has not gotten any projects while Queensland province has gotten most of the projects.The firms shortlisted have also come under fire as they don't have much experience.Not much information on how the firms were shortlisted but these companies are definitely not the best or cheapest by a big margin.Australia has generally made a mess of promoting renewable energy with New South Wales cutting feed in tariffs sharply after giving an overly generous subsidy.The Solar Flagship Program looks like an expensive mistake in the making if it comes to fruition.
November 13, 2010
Solar PV Technology have made a huge advance in the last 2-3 years leading to a demand explosion with more than 100% growth forecast this year.Crystalline PV Technology as well as Thin Film Technology like CIGs and CdTe have reduced their costs drastically.While Solar PV still requires generous government subsidies for their growth,grid parity has come very close.Solar PV Technology has become economically competitive in parts of Italy where a unique combination of high electricity rates and sunshine have made Solar PV Technology very attractive.Costs are being reduced at more than 10% per year which would make Solar PV competitive in 2-3 years in most parts of the world.However mainstream and reputed forecasters and companies like Boston Consulting Group remain blind and ignorant to this.BCG in a recent report has said that biofuels and Concentrated Solar Thermal (CSP) Technology will become competitive.I have issues with both of these technologies.
November 13, 2010
India's Stock Market remains a heaven for Pump and Dump Operators of IPOs.Despite some high quality IPOs in recent times like Coal India,the majority of the IPOs being done are by fly by night operators and promoters.Their is little justification for the valuation and the subscription numbers.But it is a lucrative trade for shady operators who easily manage to manipulate small cap IPOs leaving huge losses for retail investors.The stock market regulator SEBI strangely remains asleep at the wheel despite some blatant pump and dump issues.More than 50% of the IPOs in the Indian stock market over the past year are below their issue prices.But there has been no investigation and prosecution over these white collar crimes just seem gentle scolding.Like the totally infamous and ineffectual SEC of the US Stock Market,SEBI looks more and more like a toothless tiger.Despite some laudable reforms in favor of retail investors,it needs to act more quickly and reform much more.
November 13, 2010
4) Parking Fights - Most of Indian cities are unplanned without any parking for most houses.This leads to a huge problem in terms of illegal parking.Even Legal Parking sees fights between neighbours leading to fights and sometimes even deaths.With thousands and millions of car hitting the roads every day and month,the problem is growing even more acute.No solution in sight as Indian politicians happily line up their pockets in corruption scams.
Summary
India's Transport Policy is a total mess with no solution in sight.Public Transport is not given enough money or resources to make a difference while Indian auto companies are making huge profits.Construction of the recent Metro Railway to Delhi's satellite city of Gurgaon has already been filled to capacity not reducing the pressure on the main highways which remain chock a block with cars 24 hours a day.India needs to massively invest in public infrastructure and dis-incentivize private modes of infrastructure like cars through congestion and fuel taxes.
November 4, 2010
AUO is investing massively in Solar Energy to build a multi Gigawatt capacity in partnership with US Solar Efficiency Leader Sunpower.Not only is AUO building a huge factory in JV with Sunpower in Malaysia,it has also made plans to set up a 2 GW Solar Crystalline Solar Cell Fab in Taiwan.This will be a 50:50 mix of multi and monocrystalline technology.Note the solar market despite seeing a massive 100% jump in solar demand in 2010 faces a huge supply overhang from a number of new large players.TSMC,Samsung,Hyundai,Saint Gobain,BYD are just some of the heavyweights ramping up their solar expansion plans.AUO faces a tough time in this crowded market which already has Chinese incumbents establishing gigawatt capacities.A new player needs to differentiate himself in the increasingly commodity market that solar modules have become.
November 4, 2010
In my previous missive I had opined that the US Solar Energy Policies were misguided as President Obama visited a Solyndra Factory and the US Department […]
November 4, 2010
India's Cricketing Icons are considered as role models by majority of the youth.India's cricketers like Sunil Gavaskar,Kapil Dev are revered in the country due to the huge popularity of the game.However India's recent cricketing league IPL has been found to another massive corruption scam.No jail terms as usual but a lot of political turmoil and media jumping around.India's top ministers have been indirectly implicated but nothing has happened as usual.Now it has been found that India's top former cricketers are also a part of this Greed Fest.Sunil Gavaskar,arguably India's best known batsman has got caught in a controversy.He has demeaned himself by asking for a huge payment that he was promised to be a member of the governing council of the corruption tainted IPL.Any upright person would have totally disassociated himself with the whole corruption game.By asking for a huge sum for his services,even this cricketing icon has fallen.India has very few role models left.
October 30, 2010
The US Wind Industry has been facing headwinds since the beginning of 2010 due to a confluence of adverse factors.This has continued till the 3rd quarter of 2010 with AWEA reporting just 395 MW of capacity installation and a 72% fall in wind capacity since the beginning of 2010.This is a drastic fall and the main reason for the Wind Industry falling into a coma is the legislative lethargy of the US Government.Despite lots of noise,no climate change or energy legislation has passed the Congress and Senate leading to the moribund state of the US Wind Industry.Note China and Europe are pressing full throttle on Green Industry Growth with a climate laggard like UK also taking a leadership in the offshore wind industry.China will continue its strong wind growth in 2010 installing around 50% of the overall global capacity.Its Wind Companies like Sinovel,Goldwind and Ming Yang are now trying to penetrate foreign markets while US Wind Turbine makers like Clipper have sold themselves unable to survive independently.
October 30, 2010
Planned Czech Solar FIT cuts will heavily favor subsidies to Small Distributed Rooftop Installations
Czech has seen the biggest Solar Growth Explosion compared to its size powered by extremely generous feed in tariffs.This has made Czech one of the top solar installers in the world and led to a huge public backlash.The Czech government has responded by proposing to bust the Solar Energy Bubble by drastically cutting down the Feed in Tariffs.The administration is also trying to reign in the ballooning subsidies from existing solar plants by imposing taxes on solar plants and carbon credits.This is being done as the Czech consumers face a 15-25% increase in electricity prices next year.The country had little option as its very badly designed tariffs had led to a situation where Czech Industry faced the prospect of becoming uncompetitive.
October 30, 2010
Van Eck Global has come out with a Rare Earth Metals ETF (REMX) which offers investors an opportunity to get a diversified exposure to this commodity sector .Rare Earth has become a "geopolitical problem" rather than a demand/supply problem with Chinese monopoly over the mining and production of REE.Note materials for Green Industries have become a hot investment sector in recent days with current and future shortages fueling a strong price rally.Global X had launched a Lithium (LIT) ETF which is an investment vehicle into Lithium and Battery/EV producers.Like LIT which can hardly be called a pure play Lithium play,REMX is also not a pure investment into the REE sector.Rather it offers an investment into a wide variety of strategic ores and metals such as titanium,zirconium etc.REMX analysis shows that it is very well diversified geographically and across companies.This is a good in my opinion since many of the rare earth companies that have recently seen their stock prices shooting up are very risky.Most of these companies will take anywhere between 1-5 years to start production and the quality of their reserves,management,environment permitting etc. is highly uncertain.Note mining of rare earths is very environment unfriendly which is ironic since they are mainly used in Green Industry.Here is a list of the features of this new ETF
October 29, 2010
India's Political and Business Elite is known to break Indian Laws with Impunity as Corruption becomes more Blatant by the Day.India recently hosted the Commonwealth Games which was known more for its Corruption and Large Scale Looting than any Sporting Feats.The Politician Bureaucrat Nexus along with their Business Associates made a massive amount of money without any fear of the law.Despite some tax raids and some feeble investigation,it is known that no one would serve jails terms.At least not the fat cats at the top,maybe some minor official will do a year or two so that the government can be seen as doing something.India's top vigilance official recently said that 30% of Indians were utterly corrupt and the seems to be an understimate.
October 29, 2010
3G Technology made a lot of waves in India after the government managed to make a huge sum in auctioning off the airwaves required for using the 3G Technology.India's big telecom providers like Airtel,Reliance,Tata Docomo,Vodafone and others fought tooth and nail for this precious resource.In the end it remains questionable whether the government really gained from the Rs 100,000 crores it got.Critics say that to recuperate this massive expenditure,companies will provide 3G services at very expensive rates making communication in India an overall loser.However it remains to be seen as leading providers Tata Docomo and Airtel start providing 3G services in 2010 itself.Note Docomo is one of the 3-4 Japanese telecom giants which has implemented 3G Technology a few years ago which proved to be a big success.While Japan has had a good 3G experience,other countries did not have it so good.In UK it pretty much turned out to be a cropper.It remains to be seen whether in India it can be a success or not.
October 28, 2010
Siemens as a part of its Energy Efficinecy Efforts will go on a Green Makeover of its Office Locations in India.LED Lightining and other measures will be adopted to save Rs 3 crore in Energy Costs annually.15% of its current Energy needs will be cut by spending around $2.2 million in the next 2 years with a payback time of around 3 years.Siemens hopes to establish its Green Credentials in the Green Building Category by showcasing its inhouse efforts in Energy Efficiency.Note Energy Efficiency is the cheapest way to cut carbon emissions and is the lowest hanging fruit in mitigating Climate Change.It is perhaps the only Green Sector which does not require a subsidy to be economic.India is on a massive infrastructure building spree with $500 billion expected to be spent over the next 5 years.Green Buildings will go a long way in reducing India's growing carbon emissions and will save money as well.
October 28, 2010
Pennsylvania is the Ground Zero for Shale Gas Development globally with more than 2500 Gas Wells in Operation.The State is situated on top of the Marcellus […]
October 27, 2010
Solar Energy is currently the amongst the costliest form of energy generation and except in niche applications is not economic without some sort of government subsidies.However growth in solar energy has been one of the fastest in the past decade upwards of 50% CAGR as costs have declined and technology improved manifold.Solar Energy forms just 0.1% of the the total energy supply of the planet currently and analysts and decisionmakers don't think that Solar Energy can form a big chunk in the future as well.However I differ strongly in that aspect.The main reason for my very bullish opinion on Solar Energy is based on the simple fact that Solar Energy is the only form of Energy whose costs are declining rapidly on a secular basis.In a world facing the prospects of "peak commodity",solar energy remains vastly abundant and it remains upto human technology to capture it at the lowest costs.
October 27, 2010
EGP is the 4th company of its kind to supply paper to European investors so the demand is not high.Despite EGP having 44% Hydro Assets and 13% Geothermal Assets which is more than its European competitors dependent on Wind Energy,investors are not convinced.Even the lower band of pricing has seen only 60% demand which means that EGP may have to lower it further.Spain and Italy the home countries of Enel are reducing Feed in Tariffs for Green Energy Sources due to Budgetary Problems.Despite removing the most draconian cuts on Renewable Subsidies,the sword of uncertainty continues to hang over the Green Producers.Investors are also looking for a discount on existing companies in order to make commitments to a new issue.EGP has been trying to do an IPO sine last year and the current bullish market environment in Europe might be the best time for it to clinch the deal.
October 27, 2010
USA is the 2nd largest importer of REE and it has thought of taking the issue to WTO.But the WTO has proved to be quite toothless delaying the hearing of issue till 2011.Obama has decided to rake up the REE shortage in the G-20 meeting even as US Senate thinks of passing legislation to boost domestic sources of REE.Molycorp was up more than 11% forming yet another lifetime high on the news.Note the US Congress has already passed a REE law and the Senate needs to endorse the draft in order for it to become law.Rare Earth Elements have a Defense Angle to them as well as many of the REE such as samarium are used in Defense Products.Radars,Pathfinders,Smart Bombs and a number of hitech weaponry require Rare Elements for their production.Without a domestic source,USA might be put at a serious disadvantage in the coming decades.
October 26, 2010
Malaysia is set to become one of the largest solar panel producing nations overtaking much larger rivals USA and Japan as world class companies start/expand capacities in Malaysia.Every country is trying to promoter Green Industry in the fight for leadership of this new age industry and to create high paying green jobs.Billions of Dollars in Green Stimulus has been doled out by governments but with varying degrees of success.USA has managed to squander most of its Green Subsidies despite possessing a very strong technological base as US Companies shutter US factories to outsource production to Asia and Mexico.European Countries have seen a similar phenomenon as their high costs force domestic companies to shift to Asia for their survival.China and Taiwan are the largest solar cell producers in Asia due to their low costs,good infrastructure and massive government support.Taiwan has also been able to leverage its semiconductor strengths with companies like TSMC and AUO expanding into solar energy.However Malaysia has been a surprise winner as well.It is important to understand the reasons behind Malaysia's success as it has beat countries with much larger solar energy markets like USA and Japan.It also has no massive semiconductor industry like Taiwan which can redeploy its skills.It has only recently introduced a Feed in Tariff Policy to promote Renewable Energy
October 26, 2010
Vestas employs over 8000 people in Denmark which is its home base out of the 22000 employees worldwide.The comppany now plans to fire 3000 workers mostly from Denmark even as it hires workers in places like India and UK.Vestas has to cut a lot of flab as Chinese companies destroy higher priced competition in the Wind Energy Industry.Like the Solar Industry,where European companies like Q-Cells and Solarworld are facing an existential crisis from low cost Chinese competition ,Wind Energy now faces similar dynamics.Like Q-Cells and REC which relocated their manufacturing to Asia,Vestas has to do a similar act.Despite a record order book of 6.5 GW in Q310,Vestas has to fire Danish workers who are more than 10x more expensive than similar Asian workers.In a globalized world,companies don't have the luxury of employing expensive workers in developed countries if similar wokers can be employed elsewhere.Note competition is increasing in Wind Energy with big players like Hyundai,Samsung,Northrop and smaller players entering the industry.
October 26, 2010
Putting up Solar Panels on prominent landmarks is an easy and cheap way to promote Green Energy.In the last few years, a number for prominent places in the world have been installing solar energy in an effort to reduce GHGs and to publicize the clean economy.It advertises the advantages of putting solar panels in powering buildings which account for 40% of the global energy usage.'s Sydney's Opera House,India's Golden Temple are some of the other landmarks that have installed solar panels to cut fossil fuel use and encourage the use of renewable energy.White House has also decided to install solar panels next year after a prolonged campaign by green activists.Note White House had earlier installed solar panels during the time of Jimmy Carter and the OPEC Oil Embargo.These has been decommissioned by Reagan reflecting changed energy fundamentals.India's Parliament House has now decided to go green using solar panels and biomass plants to drastically reduce its carbon footprint.The Indian Parliament generate a huge amount of food waste which will help in powering the biomass plant.
October 26, 2010
Chinese Monopoly over Rare Earth Elements has Foreign Governments worried
Rare Earth Elements (REE) have become a hot media top with the unofficial Chinese export embargo to Japan.REEs are crucial raw materials for a wide range of industries in the Green and Defense Sectors.The Chinese monopoly over the production and supply of these commodities have made EU and USA thinking of taking the WTO route.However this had not detered China from clamping down on the production and exports.China wants to use these minerals as a strategic resource to force Green companies to relocate to China and transfer hard to get technologies to local Chinese companies.Note while EU and USA are looking to export Green Product to China,the government there has shrewdly only given permissions to companies willing to transfer technology.
Can India take Advantage to become a Leading Supplier
Rare Earth Element Deposits are found in many places in the world but due the Chinese undercutting of prices and lax environmental regulations had all but shuttered every mine in the non-Chinese geographies.Recent Chinese moves have opened up oppurtunities for REE mines as prices have increased by almsot 5-10x in the last few months.Lynas Corp is opening up a mine in Australia while Molycorp is reopening its mine in Mountain Pass,Californa.India also has a long history of production and export of REE . However its production of around 2500 tons is only 2% of the estimated Chinese yearly production of 130,000 tons.
October 26, 2010
California and the Federal Government have recently approved a number of big Solar Thermal Plants totaling around 2800 MW.These plants utilize Concentrated Solar Thermal (CSP) Technology and uses mirrors and towers instead of normal PV panels.The haste with which these plants are being permitted and approved is mainly due to the expiry of the Treasury Grant Scheme by end of 2010.According the the American Stimulus rules,only Green Projects which have broken ground or spent 5% of their costs would be eligible for the 30% Cash Subsidy.6 Huge Solar Thermal Plants have been approved with the biggest Blythe plant being the most recent.The capital costs for these plants are extremely high at around $6/watt which makes me question their economics.PV panels can be installed at around $3-3.5 /watt which is around 40-50% lower.Despite the higher capacity factors for Solar Thermal Plants and their ability to store energy for a short period,the cost difference is too large.
October 25, 2010
BYD the Chinese battery and electric vehicle producer made famous after Warren Buffet made an investment has been facing rough times recently.Its falling auto growth,problems with land acquisitions in China and an incoherent strategy has hurt its profits and stock price in 2010.The Company has put on too many hats with investment in various green technologies besides its bread and butter car business.The most ambitious plans of BYD undoubtedly lies in the Solar Energy Business though little details have been revealed.The company is planning to spend 22.5 Billion Yuan on Solar Energy over the next 5 years for which it has already secured financing.The company has started a 100 MW cell plant in the Shaanxi province and plans to expand to 5000 MW by 2015.However its recent travails had made one think that they would have put their aside Solar ambitions .However that does not appear so.
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