Blog
August 23, 2010
India’s Real Estate Sector is one of the most unloved sectors in the Stock Market.Even Fund Managers shun this Sector because of the complete lack of […]
August 23, 2010
Reliance's Strategy in Shale Gas makes a lot of sense.The Technology is but new and unproven on a long time scale.There have been concerns about the environment impact of Shale Gas Extraction.Also low Gas Prices due to the GFC has made the industry growth slowdown.This is a good time to buy Shale Gas Assets relatively cheaply as Economic Recovery will again see Fossil Fuel Prices heading up.
August 23, 2010
The Green Indices have sharply underperformed the broad market due to a combination of several factors.These are High Competition in Solar Energy,Declining Demand in Wind Energy,Lack of Global Agreement on Climate Change and Slow Growth of Smart Grid Technologies.With developed governments facing pressure to cut fiscal deficits,green investments are also expected to get hit from government stimulus plans.However India and China are the two bright spots in an otherwise bleak Green Investing Landscape.Both countries have a Prodigious Energy Demand which is still growing at a rapid clip.Despite their reliance on Coal and other Fossil Fuel forms,both countries realize the need to promote Renewable Energy.
August 23, 2010
The United Nations is reviewing the Carbon Credit Requests from 5 plants in China and their is a high probability of cancellation of these requests.NGOs and activists have alleged that these HFC plants emit more GreenHouse Gases (GHGs) than is required in the normal function of the plants.This leads to increased revenue from neutralizing these gases defeating the entire purpose of the CDM scheme.Carbon Trading has repeatedly been proved to be an inefficient and ineffective scheme,but its popularity continues to increase around the world.The Scheme is suitable for niche purposes and is totally inadequate as a holistic response to the problem of Climate Change
August 23, 2010
This Port Stock maybe a good buy for all the India Infrastructural Growth Faithful but not for a value investor.This company still have to prove it can generate earnings on a sustainable basis.While a number of PE players have paid more than the issue price in this company,this still does not justify a buy in my opinion.This company might be a good stock to own in 2-3 years but currently you can avoid this issue.
August 23, 2010
Bollywood as India's massive Film Industry is commonly known as,has not been known to bring forth serious issues.While early movies used to dwell on Rural India,the 21st century Indian cinema has decoupled itself from the Indian masses.Most of the movies these days with inane story lines are shot in foreign locales depicting lives of an extreme minority on Indians.Peepli Live is a refreshing exception to this trend.With no famous stars and no "song and dance' routines around trees,the movie has humourously covered the issues of farmer problems in India.
August 22, 2010
Renewable Energy Vestas posts surprise loss and cuts outlook – Reuters FuelCell sells 1.4MW fuel cell power plant to G3 Power – Reuters Two China new […]
August 20, 2010
Note India is the 2nd faster growing economy in the world and presents a lucrative market for US MNCs facing a slowing domestic economy.Also unlike China,India does not have a deficit-surplus issue with the US.India is a crucial market for US which wants to double exports in the next 5 years.India can put punitive duties on imports of aircraft products.Note US exported more than $2 billion in airplane and space parts from the US in 2009 and is expected to grow this strongly in 2010 as well.India can easily replace Boeing with European manufacturer Airbus.India will be the biggest aircraft market in the world in the next 5-6 years as air traffic explodes.Airbus and Boeing are fierce rivals with their disputes frequently putting EU and the US government in WTO disputes.
August 20, 2010
Midfield Industries was another overpriced small cap IPO in the Indian market which listed on 4th August.This stock not so strangely has almost doubled in price […]
August 20, 2010
While US-China relations remain normal with the biggest trade relationship in the world,there is always an undercurrent of mistrust between the world’s two largest economies.Chinese companies […]
August 20, 2010
Note CPV like the Thin Film Technology saw investments during 2007-2008 when the Polysilicon Prices were quite high at $400/kg.With prices crashing to $50/kg in 2009 and 2010,these technologies ran into a lot of problems.CPV is making a comeback as traditional c-SI based cells are reaching the upper limit of their efficiency.Sunpower which makes the most efficient PV cells recently said that it would look at CPV technology to improve the efficiency of their 24% cells further.Note that Efficiency improvements is the most important cost cutting measure for Solar Technology which would lead to its mass adoption.
August 20, 2010
Chinese Firms are not exactly renowned for their Environmental Credentials and the weak regulations in African Countries does not give them an incentive to be so.Concerns were raised about the impact of a Chinese Ore Mine in the forests of Gabon.With lax oversight and easily corruptible administration,the Damage is already Done before it can be Stopped.Africa countries in general are ruled by Undemocratic, Corrupt rulers which are willing to go along with Environmental Degradation in return for Bribes.
August 20, 2010
the administration had done nothing.Instead of setting out a Renewable Energy Standard or a Feed in Tariff Policy,the President seems busier in giving speeches and photo-ops.The result has been that USA is lagging far behind Europe and China in the Green Energy area.Deutche Bank Asset Management which invests $6-7 billion out of its $700 Billion corpus in the Green Sector,has made a scathing attack on the lack of US Federal Support for Green Industry.The Bank said it would totally bypass US in making Green Investments and concentrate its energies on China and Europe.Solar Companies are already outsourcing Green Jobs to Mexico and China. US Companies are already recognizing China as a Leader in the Clean Technology Area .
August 19, 2010
The Tres Amigas Facility will be the first of its kind in the world and would be profitable allowing sale of power between the Three Grids.This unique initiative has received support from numerous stakeholders like utilities,transmission operators,Green Energy Suppliers etc.Extreme Power has been selected to provide Energy Storage Facilities and Energy Management Technology for this project.If this project gets built it will lead to the building of similar such facilities in the rest of the world and be a big boon in the quest of Mass Adoption of Green Energy.Note this Project seems to deserves a DOE Grant much more than the Billion Dollar Loans to Abengoa and Solyndra.
August 19, 2010
Nuclear Energy currently accounts for 21% of the electricity supply and would be replaced by renewable sources by that timeframe.However utilities which have a huge amount to lose want the reactors to stay.They are using the common language of anti-Green lobbies that it would lead to Job Losses and Energy Insecurity.They don't think that Renewable Energy can replace the cheap Nuclear Power.This is the same argument being used by the opponents of California's AB32 Law.Like the Solar Feed in Tariff Controversy earlier in the year,this fight too promises to be an interesting one though I think the Nuclear Lobby will lose.
August 19, 2010
Ontario had ample opportunity to learn from past experience and its Renewable Energy Subsidy Policy is on the whole quite good.However one part of the FIT program which gave a very generous 80.2c/KwH to micro installations of solar projects under 10 KW was faulty.It led to 160 MW of project applications which were ground mounted with very high production as they used trackers.There was no discrimination between roof and ground mounted micro installations leading to this problem.Note its not possible to install trackers on roofs which can increase the energy by 30-35%.The large number of applications were not factored in by the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) which proposed to retroactively cut those tariffs by 27% for ground plants.
August 18, 2010
Now Blackstone has decided to gamble on India's Power Deficit Story by investing $300 million for an undisclosed stake in the company.With investment plans of $6.5 billion and parent company sinking under loads of debt,Moser Baer Projects desperately needed equity which has been provided by Blackstone.Its previous track record in Solar and Optical Media does not inspire a lot of confidence.But India's 8-9% Growth Rate is like a Rising Tide which will lift all sorts of Boats.Blackstone is perhaps gambling more on that rather than on Moser Baer.
August 18, 2010
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Technology is akin to putting Lipstick on a Pig (read Coal Power Plants).This Technology which has been hyped as the Green Answer to Coal's Dirty Polluting Ways has never been proven on a commercial scale .Note the British Government promising CCS with every new Coal Plant.Despite numerous large pilot projects,the Technology remains immature.Even China which gets 80% of its electricity from Coal Power Plants and is the biggest emitter of GHGs,remains skeptical of this technology.
August 18, 2010
India’s Business and Political Elite continue to mock the Indian Legal System through loopholes and expensive lawyers.I had written earlier in a post of how Satyam […]
August 18, 2010
TSMC has made a smart entry into the Solar Energy space through investments into CIGs technology.Beside investing in a solar fab in Taiwan using Technology from […]
August 18, 2010
But with the imminent visit of President Obama to India,the government wants to put the final touch to the deal during November.The government has raised the cap Three Fold to $330 million in order to win the support of the main opposition party the BJP.However Greenpeace the international Green NGO has opposed the cap.The reason is there should not a be cap as it increases the moral hazard of the companies.With a cap on their liability,their is an incentive for the private players to loosen their safety standards.There is no cap on liability for any other type of industrial hazard so a nuclear cap also does not make much sense .The recent BP Oil Spill is estimated to cost BP around $20-30 billion despite the Disaster being of lesser magnitude than a Nuclear Accident like Chernyboyl.
August 17, 2010
The ETF does not make much sense for any class of investor.A Lithium investor would be better off investing in Rockwood,SQM and FMC with appropriate offsetting positions in the agri and speciality chemicals sector.A Battery Investor should invest in BYD,A123 Systems,Ener1 etc. rather than Sanyo,Exide and Cosco.Also a lot of the companies in the ETF have never made profits and are high risk in nature while stable holdings like Rockwood,SQM are expensively valued at the moment.I would advise against investing in this pseudo Green ETF which is only masquerading as a Lithium ETF.
August 17, 2010
There have been diplomatic skirmishes with China trying to block a ADB loan to the state and giving different visas to persons in that region.India has so far remained muted despite some border incursions by Chinese troops as well.India and Chinese political and trade relations have improved quite a lot in the recent years,however the trust quotient remains low between the world's two most populous countries.China has used Pakistan as a proxy against India and has also been blamed over cyberattacks on Indian defense networks.India has responded by banning Chinese telecom equipment firms over security concerns.The rise of these 2 great powers and the dynamics between them will be the most important event shaping the 21st century.
August 17, 2010
To reduce its expense Vedanta will only pay Rs 355/share to minority shareholders in the open offer while offering Cairn Rs 405/share .This will include Rs 50/share for a non compete agreement.This seems a ruse to shaft minority shareholders as I don't think Cairn poses much of a threat to Vedanta from further Oil Explorationin India.I don't know how Vedanta's returns from the Cairn's oil fields can be impacted through Oil Exploration by Cairn's parent in the future.Indian stock market regulator had earlier rejected Heidelberg's premium to be paid to SK Birla Group when buying Mysore Cements stake.The controlling premium has been paid in earlier M&A by foreign promoters to Indian promoters.The area of controlling premium remains a grey one and I think it is being exploited by Vedanta to lower its open offer price.It remains to be seen if SEBI rules in the favor of the minority shareholders.
August 17, 2010
The stock might offer some short term profits for high risk traders on a dead cat bounce,but it is definitely not a fundamental pick.Unless the company really makes significant progress on the revenue and orders front,it is not a buy in my book.
August 17, 2010
The Board has lashed out at IL&FS for forgetting the strictures under which the company was given to the management of IL&FS.The government appointed directors had also been silent at the flouting of these norms.Note the company has already sold the preferential shares in the company without the approval of the CLB.Now IL&FS finds its reputation tarnished due to the jinxed Maytas.I am not superstitious by nature but it definitely seems that Maytas brings bad luck to its promoters.
August 17, 2010
.Now a Central Government Panel has indicted both the state government and Vedanta of environmental abuses in its earlier projects.The N.C. Saxena panel has found the state government officials guilty of violating Forest Rights Act in order to help Vedanta.While rejected Vedanta's Bauxite Mining Rights,the Panel has found the company guilty of mining on government land,violating environmental laws and tribal rights
August 17, 2010
The 10.8c/KwH Tariff will be almost 35% lower than the earlier project awarded in the Ningxia province.For comparison 10.8c/KwH is generally given to Wind Energy which has considerably lesser costs than Solar Energy.Parts of USA and Europe have electricity tariffs of greater than 20c/KwH at present.Such low tariffs may not be useful as they might lead to project delays if not cancellations.
August 16, 2010
This almost 30% decline in US yield is due to a combination of factors like expectations of more monetary easing by Fed,deflation worries and disappointing US economic data.In lockstep with the the US Treasury yields,the German bunds have also been rising.The rise in German Bunds is despite very strong German economic data.The German economy expanded at the fastest pace in 23 years on Rising Exports.So the fall in Bund yield is confusing when seen in terms of the US Treasury and Economy relationship
August 16, 2010
A Number of new Solar Companies have followed Motech into this industry and are currently challenging it for Pole Position.Gintech,Neo Solar,DelSolar are some of biggest Solar Cell Producers in the world now gaining from the worldwide boom in solar demand in 2010.These companies have reported sold out capacities in 2010 and strong profits benefiting from the generous European subsidies for Green Energy.However these companies are vulnerable to demand fluctuations as they lack the vertical integration capabilities of mainland Chinese companies like Trina and Yingle
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