World Economy and Markets
February 5, 2012
Japanese Companies which were the leading solar companies in 2006 have steadily lost the top global rankings to Chinese companies. Now many of the top Japanese Solar Energy Companies are retreating from markets and manufacturing. Sharp which was the largest solar company in 2009 and 2010 has radically restructured its strategy but is still losing marketshare. Panasonic the second biggest solar company has closed down its Japanese factory. Other Japanese solar companies like Mitsubishi, Kyocera are also being forced to rethink solar panel manufacturing.
Note most of the higher cost producers in the solar industry are effectively bankrupt and are only being supported by government or big parents. Many Western companies have already closed or are on the verge of closing. Some of the bankrupt companies are not finding buyers of their equipment even at 10c/dollar. Massive overcapacity remains in the solar industry particularly in China which is not being taken out fast enough which will probably lead to another bad year for solar stocks in 2012.
February 4, 2012
We would like to incorporate BIPV solar tiles or roofing when we build - so we are trying to find out a this point what products are now available in Australia and what our choices would be and the range of prices each would be in ...just to give us a starting point as we begin to pull all the ideas together ?
We'd really appreciate any information you can send our way that would help us achieving this - the brand/type of BIVP we can use, the best inverter and battery you'd recommend - obviously it will depend on where we are and how much sun our roof will get - but we plan to make it as much as is possible as we'd like to be able create 100% of our power needs or if not at least 80 % . At present as a guide my household uses approx 10.7 khw of power a day - so that will give you an idea of how many solar tiles we'd need perhaps ...if the sun was at its optimum ? We hope to be building on a reasonably sunny block between Ferntree Gully and Belgrave on the high side near bushland ...beginning in a couple of months or so
February 3, 2012
China India Trade has been rising at very high growth rates over the last few years driven by the booming GDP growth in the fastest growing economies of the world. However India like other countries faces the mounting problem of a huge trade deficit with China which is growing all the time. Like Brazil ,USA this has become a major problem . Beside the official reported figures , there is a large clandestine trade takes place outside the normal channels. Massive imports from China go unreported to avoid excise duties and custom taxes. Both countries have corrupt officials and businessmen which facilitate trade without paying of taxes and duties. Unofficial Trade Deficit with China may be double the $27 billion reported in 2011.
January 19, 2012
Solar Jobs have been cut in the tens of thousands this year by a number of European Solar Companies including marquee names such as REC, Q-Cells, Solarworld ,SMA Solar besides many of the smaller names. Some of the solar companies like Solon have completely shut down. 5000 solar companies have downed shutters in 2011 according to German association BSW. This is despite global solar demand in 2011 increasing by around 30-40% compared to 2010. The reason is that massive overcapacity has been created in China and other parts of Asia. Backed by cheap loans and massive subsidies, around 50 GW of solar panel capacity has been created . This has led to a crashing of solar panel prices by 60% which has decimated the higher cost companies in Europe.
January 19, 2012
There is urgent need to reduce the solar capacity addition in Germany because
a) It is requiring almost half of the $21 billion renewable energy subsidies in 2011 while generating 3% of the total power
b) Too much solar power while put pressure on the power grid as at the peak afternoon hours solar can generate almost 10% of Germany's power requirement which means shutting down other sources
c) German Solar Panel producers have stopped benefiting from German domestic growth. Most solar companies in Germany have been decimated by Chinese competition and around 20000 solar jobs and 5000 companies have shut down.
January 16, 2012
Germany has seen the biggest increase in solar installations in the history of solar energy with 3 GW in the month of December 2011 alone. For perspective this is almost equal to the installed capacity of the Chinese solar energy which has almost 6-7 times as much electricity generating capacity . The returns are still high in 2012 with existing FIT , so the German government may have to plan additional cuts with plans of
a) cut of 2% FIT every month in 2012 to slow down the installations and bring down the solar system IRR
b) a cap on feed in tariffs to solar systems of 3 kilowatts only .This will prevent larger solar installations and building of large solar farms
January 16, 2012
China add the most electricity capacity annually in the world at around 100 GW and its total electricity generation capacity is second only to the USA which it will surpass in the next few years. China is highly dependent on thermal power for its energy needs which is becoming scarce and expensive by the day. Not to speak of the big disadvantages of coal as a fuel which causes thousands of deaths each year. Solar Energy has now reached grid parity in many parts of the world thanks to the low cost cheap solar panels being made by Chinese solar panel producers. With many countries now thinking of putting an anti dumping duty on Chiense solar modules, the government is looking to boost domestic demand . Chinese solar panel Tier 1 players like LDK, Suntech, Trina and Yingli besides some others are the biggest beneficiaries of this new solar policy from China.
January 14, 2012
How Chinese Module Makers will use the Taiwanese Cell Producers to Circumvent US Anti-Dumping Policy
The USA and China are locked in a bitter tiff over solar panel imports from China. Note Solarworld filed a petition with the ITC which in all probability will put an anti-dumping duty on Chinese solar modules. Other countries whose solar panel producers have been swamped by the super cheap Solar Panel imports too are thinking of special custom duties. However the big Tier 1 Chinese solar panel makers are not sitting idle . They have already come out with strategies to circumvent the US Solar Panel Duties if they are imposed .
January 14, 2012
China has reported the first decrease in its forex reserves in a qtr since the 1998 crisis. The Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves which are humongous at over $4 trillion has shown a $100 billion decrease in Nov and Dec 2012 .While the sharp decrease in the Euro may account for some change , there is also anecdotal evidence that the hot money is flowing out of China . Note earlier Hot Money was pouring into China given the potential of yuan appreciation but with the potential of a Chinese Hard Landing ,the opposite may be happening . China has a distorted economy heavily dependent on exports and investment for growth . However changed macro economic conditions make this model unsustainable . How China manages to transition out of this investment export fueled condition is an open question . That they must is in no doubt nor the fact that China's 10% GDP growth days are definitely over.
January 11, 2012
USA Wind Energy in 2012 has got off to a flying start with the announcement of 3 new wind farms being announced. While BP and Sempra have announced 2 new wind farms with 560 MW capacity with $1 billion in investment ,a Spanish company will build a 189 MW wind farm . Note 2010 was not a great year for wind energy in the USA though 2011 was better . GE will be the Wind Turbine Company supplying turbines to the BP WInd Farms while Accionia wind turbines will be used by the Spanish company . Note there is a severe competition in the Wind Turbine space with the biggest wind company Vestas facing a possible bankruptcy or consolidation in the future. However wind farm developers are having a good time at the expense of the wind equipment companies as prices of wind turbines reach very low levels.
January 11, 2012
China's solar market growth has hit the rocket phase in late 2011 with the announcement of the long awaited national Feed in Tariff . Many of the Chinese utilties have set up large solar farms utilizing the cheap solar panels produced by Chinese solar panel companies. Note Chinese solar companies are the dominant players in the world having almost killed the western solar industry in the last couple of years. With cheap costs and massive government support, China is almost ruling the solar industry globally . In the domestic Chinese market they have even a bigger advantage given the local home conditions and preference of domestic companies . Note China become home to the biggest wind turbine companies when China enacted the domestic content requirements in 2006. With the solar industry , the Chinese government does not need this law as its companies already possess massive advantages over the foreign competition.
January 11, 2012
The rising income inequality throughout the world is sowing seeds of dystopia according to a report released by World Economic Forum. The biggest risk amongst the 50 risks listed is the increasing wealth gap between individuals in all countries. Gini's coefficient has risen in most countries developing as well as developed and this has a strong correlation to globalization. The global artitrage of labor has tilted the scales towards capital and increasingly made wages become stagnant. Developing countries with weak institutions are showing income inequality in horrific forms with $2 billion homes existing in the middle of millions surviving on less than $2 day. US has already seen the OWS movement as a result of this increasing income gap between the have and have nots. Middle Eastern countries have also seen revolutions brought upon by the massive riches of the elite compared to the rising poverty of the poor and even the middle classes.
January 10, 2012
The massive solar panel glut has not only caused Western solar companies to go bankrupt but has also caused mayhem in the Chinese solar panel industry.Many of the smaller companies have seen their utilization go down to 35% or lower with many of the others shutting down their production entirely.There are hundreds of small solar companies in China which started during the 2010 boom when global solar demand increased by more than 150% . However their small scale of operatoins and lack of brand power means that they are bearing the brunt. While the large Chinese solar panel producers have seen their utilization go down , most will survive given the support from Chinese Banks. For example LDK despite its more than $3 billion in debt and losses is still getting loans from Chinese Development Bank. But the smaller Chines OEM panel makers don't have the government sugar daddy behind them.
January 10, 2012
Philips and Siemens ,2 of the largest European conglomerates with big Green divisions as well have warned of Dire Macroeconomic problems in Europe.While the stock markets continue to go higher, both companies have cut/ warned profit forecasts on European economic headwinds. Siemens is the largest green company in the world while Philips is one of the biggest Lighting Companies .
January 9, 2012
Solar Trade Wars are becoming the norm in the globe these days with the major one between USA and China.The instigator is the German solar company Solarworld which helped started the ITC Case in the USA.India too is thinking of putting some kind of import duty to protect its domestic solar panel producers which are dropping like flies.Chinese solar panel producers have swamped the world with super cheap solar modules.Though a part of their low prices can be explained by competitive advantage, another part is due to the labor,capital subsidy given by the Chinese government.It would not take a rocket scientist to say that some of the biggest Chinese solar companies are insolvent and would be dead within a month without Chinese state loans.
January 9, 2012
Solar Renewable Energy Certificate (SREC) Prices in New Jersey have been falling at a sharp rate from a high of $600 to $225 as high returns from falling solar panel prices and other tax breaks.This has led to a massive growth in solar installations in the state making it the 2nd largest state by solar capacity.New Jersey installations have crossed 500 MW and made it a huge green job driver in the state.However this boom has made the market driven SREC prices fall quite sharply.Though not falling as sharply as Pennsylvania where SREC prices have become a joke ,they are still low and falling.
January 7, 2012
The German Solar Energy Market is biggest in the world and has installed the largest number of solar panels for the last few years.2012 promises to be no different with Germany again set to the biggest solar market for solar panel manufacturers though Italy would give good competition.The German Solar Subsidy program has been the best in the world unlike the start and stop feed in tariff programs of Spain,Czech,UK,Australia and other places.A stable step in cut of feed in tariffs has helped solar energy prices coming down by more than 50% in the last few years though demand has only increased.
January 6, 2012
US Solar Projects including the 1000 MW Blythe Solar Project is now available for solar developers,installers at fire sale prices.The Insolvency Administrator is looking to sell parts and the whole of the solar project business of Solar Millennium and its US subsidiary Solar Trust of America.Note before filing of bankruptcy,the solar project developer had around 2000 MW of solar projects in the pipeline.
January 5, 2012
China has announced a new solar subsidy for BIPV systems of 9 Yuan per Watt ($1.4/watt) and CNY 7/watt for PV systems for home.Note China has already become a top 5 market in the world in 2011 after announcing a $1.15/kwh Feed in Tariff for utility scale solar power instalations.This new subsidy by the Chinese ministry of finance should boost the home and commercial segment.Note China had recently raised the target of solar energy to 15 GW by 2015 from 10 GW as solar energy has grown amazingly fast in the recent past.
January 3, 2012
Chinese Solar Panel Producers have become a famous target of an anti dumping petition brought on by Solarworld and other companies.Though US Solar Installers have opposed the move as it will increase the solar panel prices in US,ITC has gone ahead with the investigation.Though the charges of subsidies and efficiency can be debated,the fact remains that US Solar Panel Producers can't compete with Chinese Solar Panles.Massive industrial overcapacity in China has made the prices of products very cheap and made it difficult for Western producers to compete in most areas such as Chemical,Renewable Energy,Textiles etc.The Chinese win because of their low interest rates,cheap labor,free land,massive government support.
January 3, 2012
Airline Ticket Prices are set to go up as European Union implements its ETS Scheme on the Airline Industry from 2012.Note EU as a region has been one of the most active players in the climate change arena and has an active carbon emissions market.Though this market has encouraged fraud and profiteering by unscrupolous players making it a good target for the fossil fuel lobby,the principle to fight against global warming is a good one.Compare that to USA,Canada and Japan who have done nothing to fight climate change despite the wealth of these nations.Canada has been guilty of abandoning the Kyoto Plan after missing its previous target.It has faced no penalties as it is not legally enforceable.The country continues down the pollute as much as you can pushing oil extraction from tar sands which is much more dangerous to the environment than normal oil drilling.
January 3, 2012
Income Inequality is a Theme that is getting played across the world in developing as well as developed nations.Most of the turmoil in 2011 in the Middle East and the Occupy Wall Street Movement can be attributed to the growing Income Gap between the Have and Have -Nots.The Great Recession in 2008 can also be looked upon as a fallout of this.Gini's Coefficient which measures the income distribution gap has shown continued deterioration all over the world.The Middle Class is shrinking and growing poor by the day and it is not only the Poor Class that is getting affected.
January 2, 2012
China faces multiple challenges
1) Slowdown in Europe and USA means that their exports are sputtering and manufacturing has already started contracting
2) Protests in cities and villages grows against rampant corruption and land grabbing by Communist officies.Lack of democracy means violent protests at times.
3) Debt is becoming a huge problem with local government vehicles facing trouble as they can no longer raise money from real estate sales which has fallen by 20-25%
4) Massive industrial overcapacity is being exported outside.This has made the other trading nations put duties and curbs.A big trade war with USA cannot be ruled out.Chinese solar and wind products faced countervailing duties and dumping charges.China has already imposed high duties on US car imports.
January 2, 2012
Note Chinese companies too would have shut down but the state owned Chinese banks are keeping them alive with loans at ridiculous interest rates.LDK which is buying Sunways is almost insolvent as well with its convertibles trading at less than 50c on the dollar in Singapore.It has more than n$3 billion in debt compared to its market cap of around $600 million.It faces massive losses in the coming qtrs and can't serve the interest payments much less expand.The strong support of the Chinese government for its green companies is keeping them alive.Chinese solar panels have become super cheap due to companies selling at below cost and massive scale.Note all the cheap solar panel brands in the world are Chinese with the exception of First Solar and some Asians.
LDK has managed to spend 22 million Euros despite burning hundred of millions of dollars in cash because it has got the Chinese government trillions backing it.So while Western companies burn and crash,the big crony Chinese companies can expand and acquire.
Most of the German solar manufacturing industry is finished and it is unlikely that except a couple of them like SM Solar or Wacker will live to see 2013.Q-Cells too should go bankrupt or get consolidated .Note despite European companies shifting factories to Asia ,they just can't compete.Some of the smaller module makers with 20 MW plants have seen huge losses with the equipment not selling for 10 cents on the dollar
January 2, 2012
The Chinese solar panel producers too are facing tough times with many companies running at low utilizations and almost everybody running losses.Some companies with huge debt burdens like LDK are running because of government largesse as they are effectively insolvent for all purposes.Expect more bankrutpcies in the coming year .It will take a very foolish or a very brave company to expand solar capacity this year.
Only USA Solar Installers are having a good time with below cost solar panels availabe increasing the returns and leading to massive increased.It looks like 2012 will be a good year for US solar installers who are expanding rapidly to take advantage of the falling solar module prices.Even Buffett is going all into solar development space acquiring billion dollar project in a classical case of vulture investing.
July 6, 2011
Greece Referendum is set to become the hottest media topic related to the European Debt Crisis in the coming months.In a totally surprising move Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called a referendum and a parliamentary confidence vote on 31st October just a week after the European leaders had agreed on a package to .Papandreou’s personal and government popularity have plunged amid fresh austerity measures that sparked a wave of social unrest.The PM is calling this vote probably to bolster his government as it loses support of the masses
July 6, 2011
Solar Power in Australia has grown massively in 2010 and 2011 driven by state feed in tariffs also known as the solar bonus scheme or solar credits.This has resulted in the capacity limits being reached and most of the state solar subsidy schemes have been withdrawn (see the current state feed-in-tariff schemes below).However the Australian federal government is still offering the Renewable Energy Credit Scheme under which solar power generated is eligible to get solar credits which can be solar in the open market for cash.This will still drive the use of solar energy as the falling prices of chinese solar panels has made solar energy near electricity price parity in a number of places.Australia which gets a lot of sunshine is ideal for solar energy which promotes climate change mitigation as well besides reducing pollution.Australia has the highest average solar radiation of any continent in the world, which means solar industry has the greatest potential.
July 6, 2011
Solar Panel Manufacturers in USA are facing a torrid time from the falling prices of Chinese solar panels.This has caused the bankruptcies of some big solar panel companies in recent times like Solyndra,Spectrawatt and Evergreen Solar.Only those solar panel companies with the lowest cost and good quality will manage to survive the price war in solar panels that is currently on.Most companies are running losses as the prices of solar panels have decreased by 40% in 6 months.This would cause any industry to see massive bankruptcies and this is the case with the solar panel industry as well.Note Solar Industry is a new one with rapid technology and cost changes which makes startups with bad business models go bust.This is a natural effect of capitalism and nothing to be afraid of .However you have to be careful of which solar panel manufacturer to buy from as your 25 year solar panel warranty will become useless if the solar panel manufacturer from which you brought the solar panel goes out of business.On the Bright Side the sharply declining costs of solar has made it the biggest advantage of using solar power.