World Economy and Markets
July 6, 2011
Germany till a couple of years was the home of the biggest solar panel manufacturers in the world.This was driven mainly by the German Renewable Energy Law (EEG) which is the most successful renewable energy subsidy in the world.The German Solar Market has become the biggest in the world for the last 2-3 years and an estimated 25 GW of solar panels would have been installed in Germany.Capitalizing on a large domestic market a number of solar companies like Q-Cells,Solarworld,Solon and others became the biggest in the world.However the rise of the Chinese solar panel manufactures has made these companies shrink with some of them like Q-Cells facing questions of survival.The prices of the Chinese solar panels has become lower than the costs of the German made solar modules putting the economic viability of the German solar panels in question.Though the quality of the German made solar panels is higher and some of the best solar panels in the world are produced by the Germans,the price differential has meant that Chinese have captured almost 70% of the global solar panel market leaving little for the German solar panel companies.The Italian Feed in Tariff Law Contio Energia 3 has given somewhat of a boost to the German solar panel makers as it gives higher subsidies for solar projects,farms using European based modules.However German solar panel producers are in a secular decline with most of them shifting their factories to Asia.Q-Cells and Bosch have set up big solar manufacturing facilities in Malaysia while Solarworld is doing so in the US.Another Big European Solar Producer REC is closing its factories in Norway while expanding it in Singapore.
July 6, 2011
After Solar Panels,Solar Inverters are the second most crucial component of the overall solar system accounting for around 10% of the overall costs.Solar inverters connect the solar panels to the grid converting the DC to AC which is used by the grid.Note for off grid solar installations,solar inverters are required as most electrical devices need AC for their operation.There are both grid tied and non grid tied inverters available on the market.Solar inverters have become highly sophisticated with features like optimization and monitoring etc.The efficiency of solar inverters are a major factor in their purchase as well as the quality and reliability.Inverters comes in various sizes and can be as large as 1 MW for utility applications.Note unlike solar panels,solar inverter manufactures are much bigger in size with SMA Solar having a 40% global marketshare.
July 6, 2011
Soar Rebates are a very important decision making factor when buying solar panels for your home or office or factory.The reason is that solar energy today is still not competitive with fossil fuel energy.However the costs of solar energy have declined dramatically in the recent past.It is estimated that solar energy will be competitive with coal,gas and other fossil fuels in 2-3 years in most places around the earth.In fact it has already reached "grid parity" in a number of countries like Italy,Hawai where there is a lot of sunshine and the cost of electricity is also high.Australia too has a large number of sunny hours which makes it ideal to install solar panels.State governments in Australia have been at the forefront of giving rebates and subsidies to promote solar energy in the country.This has resulted in a large boom of solar installations among residents in the country who are taking advantage of the generous subsidies.Though recently a number of provinces like New South Vales and Victoria have reduced the solar rebates , the falling cost of solar panels in Australia has still made it attractive enough for people to put up solar panels.
Most of the state government Feed in Tariff Schemes have closed down under a deluge of applications and have reached the limit.Now the rebates for solar energy is federal in nature where you can receive a Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) or Solar Credit for the solar energy generated from solar panels.Here is a list of the solar rebates and subsidies available in different states of Australia.
July 5, 2011
State governments in Australia have been at the forefront of giving rebates and subsidies to promote solar energy in the country.This has resulted in a large boom of solar installations among residents in the country who are taking advantage of the generous subsidies.Though recently a number of provinces like New South Vales and Victoria have stopped the solar rebates , the falling cost of solar panels in Australia has still made it attractive enough for people to put up solar panels.Now the rebates for solar energy is federal in nature where you can receive a Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) or Solar Credit for the solar energy generated from solar panels
July 5, 2011
Sharp which was the biggest solar company in 2010 in terms of revenues is being finally forced to move its production away from Japan to low cost countries in Asia.Note the relentless cut in prices of solar panels by Chinese solar panel companies has made life impossible for high cost panel companies in Europe and Japan.While US Companies like Sunpower and First Solar always had the majority of their production in low cost locales like Malaysia and Philipines,European solar firms had also started shifting their production overseas with Q-Cells moving to Malaysia and REC to Singapore.The current glut in solar panels has let to massive bloodletting in the solar industry with some established companies like Evergreen,ENER on the verge of bankruptcy.The sharp cost improvements and increased supply of crystalline silicon solar panels is set about to bring radical changes in the solar industry after a massive boom in 2010.The Second Wave of Thin Film Technology Bankruptcies has already started and we can expect more of that soon.Most of the production bases in Europe should be shuttered as well as costs have become higher than the selling prices.PV Crystalox and REC are already in a lot of trouble,cutting production and forecasting losses in the second half of 2011.
July 5, 2011
Solar Panels are sold by hundreds of companies around the world ranging from small to very large and comes in various shapes and sizes as well.Besides this solar panels are also made of very different materials for example silicon solar panels and thin film solar panels.So comparing solar panels and choosing a solar panel is a very difficult process if you want the best solar panel according to your needs.Note solar panels for the most part are brought by the solar integrators or solar installers that you employ to put up solar panels in your house or office.So you are not generally a part of the decision making process in case of solar panel buying.However to ensure that you get a good deal on your solar array installation,you should ensure that you get good quality solar panels and solar inverters.The solar panels should ideally have certification from quality organizations such as TUV,ISO,Clean Energy Council and others.Same with Solar Inverters that you are going to use.
July 5, 2011
According to reports coming from Europe where the summit of major European leaders took place to resolve the growing debt crisis,a deal has been reached on Greek debt.The Euro 350 billion debt which dwarfs the size of the negatively growing Greek economy has been a major source of instability in the last 2 years.The private holders of the Greek government bonds have agreed to take a 50% writeoff on their holdings.This means that if they hold Euro 100 of bonds they have become Euro 50 now as the rest has been written off as bad debt.Not that it was not apparent as Greek CDS and Greek bonds were touching all times lows in the secondary market.In fact the only buyers of Greece bonds were the European Central Bank and the Greek banks.The capital markets had been going up in the last month in the hope of some sort of resolution.The deal does not look like a win win as there will be some big losers in this deal (though they were already losing for some time).Nicolas Sarkozy announced the deal which would be voluntary in nature so that the CDS would not be invoked.Here are the winners and losers from this deal
July 4, 2011
Japan has decided to from 5 consortia of three to nine companies to bid for large solar projects in Asia and Africa.The Japanese government will support these consortia with subsidies and diplomacy to take on the Chinese solar companies.Note Chinese companies have soundly beaten the Japanese in solar company rankings despite the early mover advantage.Japanese zaibatsus are falling behind the Chinese in the global solar marketshare as low costs,cheap capital and huge subsidies have bankrupted European and American solar companies.Solar Energy in Japan has a long future dating back to 1994 when the government introduced capital subsidies to boost solar energy installations on rooftops.Till 2004,Japan was the largest solar market in the world after which it was overtaken by Germany.After 2004,the growth in the solar industry tapered off as the government reduced the subsidies for solar panels to almost zero.The huge domestic market gave rise to Japanese companies like Sharp,Mitsubishi,Kyocera,Panasonic-Sanyo become top solar panel producers in the world.However the low cost Chinese solar module producers have pushed back most of the Japanese companies
July 1, 2011
Cheap Financing by massive state owned Chinese Banks like Chiina Development Bank (CDB),China Construction Bank etc is being used as a strategic weapon to push Chinese renewable energy exports.Note cheap financing has always been used by big nations like Japan and USA to push exports by their domestic companies.United States EXIM Bank has been financing solar projects in India at very cheap interest rates to help First Solar sells its Solar Panels.Similarly China too has started using the huge balance sheet of its state owned banks to push its large green companies.Note CDB has extended almost $35 billion in credit lines to big Chinese solar companies like Suntech,Trina,Yingli,LDK and others.These credit lines can be used by renewable energy companies to finance the projects of their customers.Note Chinese Banks had bankrolled massive power equipment purchases in India being made by Dongfang and Shanghar Electric Groups.
July 1, 2011
Australia has seen a big increase in solar panel installations due to generous subsidies given by individual states in Australia like New South Wales and others.Unlike other parts of the world where solar installations have started with large solar farms,residential rooftop installations have powered Solar Energy in Australia.The sharp growth in solar power has attracted most of the largest solar panel manufacturers in the world like Suntech, Canadian, REC, Kyocera, Sharp, Sanyo, Yingli, Suntech, Trina Solar and others.The major Solar Panel Suppliers in Australia are foreign manufacturers as Australia does not have a local content policy to promote manufacturing of solar cells or solar panels.Only a few handful of companies have manufacturing operations in the country.Almost all of the solar panels sold in Australia are imported.
June 30, 2011
China has increased the tax exemption limits for urban workers by 80% to $540 a month as soaring inflation and rising income inequalities has reached dangerous levels.Note increasing corruption and vast income inequalities have led to increasing incidences of violence and riots in the country.The prices of essential commodities like food and fuel have been increasing rapidly like in the rest of the developing world.Despite the central bank increasing interest rates,the prices have hardly moderated.Pork prices have touched new records making the life of the poorest quite unbearable.Note Gini's coefficient in China has reached 0.47 which is very high.While economic prosperity has increased,a vast section of the population remains poor.This is apparent in the fact that only 24 million workers out of 300 million urban workers earn more than $6500 per year .
June 30, 2011
Note the cost of Hydropower at $1-3/watt are quite large and if not planned and implemented correctly can lead to huge time and cost escalation.The Inga 3 Dam being proposed to be built on the Congo River in the DRC faces tough choices.The Hydro Dam on the Congo which will become the biggest hydro power project in Africa is wresting over design issues.The major choice is between tunneling through rock structures or keeping open channels.Note the total cost of the 7 GW Power Plant will be around $14 billion making it the biggest investment in Congo and the 5th largest Hydro Power Plant in the world.Note Africa suffers from chronic power shortages which will become more acute with rising cots of fossil fuels and increasing per capita electricity demands.Making correct decisions on energy is vitally important for the development of the African continent.China is the country with the largest hydro power capacity at 200 GW which it wants to further increase to a massive 400 GW by 2020.
June 30, 2011
Huge Solar Panel Projects are being planned in the USA by solar developers and utilities as solar panel prices have fallen by 20-30% in the second quarter of 2011 as solar panel manufacturers are faced with oversupply and inventory issues.Note building both coal and nuclear power plants in the US has become increasingly difficult with pollution and climate change issues coming to the fore.While natural gas is getting a boost due to cheap shale gas discoveries,solar energy is picking up pace due to the government support in the form of DOE Loan guarantees and Treasury Grant programs like 1705.Recently two very large solar panel projects have been announced or are in the process over the next 3-4 years.
June 28, 2011
European Carbon Trading Market goes into a Huge Slump on Greek concerns,post 2012 Kyoto uncertainity
The European Carbon Trading Market which is the biggest cap and trade market in the world has gone into a monster slump with carbon credit prices having fallen to around 10 euros which is the lowest since March 2009 when almost every global asset had fallen to multi year lows.The trigger for the correction in prices is the future of the EUA scheme in which major carbon emitters in Europe are restricted to quotas and have to buy carbon credits if they exceed their limits.A huge amounts of United Nations CERs are sold into this market as they are allowed to to so.This has led to the mushrooming of a huge growth of carbon consultancies in India and China which help projects in obtaining these lucrative CERs.Note this has recently become highly controversial with a number of frauds happening in trading of these carbon credits.Top investment banks have been convicted of fraud and big sellers of CERs like the HFC producing companies have made ludicrous windfalls of hundreds of millions of Euros.Some of these companies have now started focusing in winning these CERs which are much more profitable than their core operations.
June 23, 2011
GoldPoly,SunOasis,China Technology Development Group Corplto invest $10 billion in European Solar Projects using Financing from China Development Bank and Merchants Bank.Note these 3 companies have integrated facilities from processing of polysilicon into wafers to making solar panels.Its the first time that 3 Chinese companies have combined to promote such a massive project.The 3 companies are not listed in the US stock or HK stock exchange unlike other major Chinese solar companies like Trina,GCL,Suntech,LDK and others.Note China Development Bank (CDB) which is owned by the Chinese government has already extended billions of dollars in credit to Chinese solar panel companies like JA Solar,LDK and others.
June 23, 2011
China installed almost 50% of the world's wind power energy capacity in 2010 as its market exploded from almost nothing to around 18 GW.China's massive energy needs and its growing emissions and pollution problems have led to strong tailwinds for the wind industry.This has also led to the growth of a massive domestic industry which has led to 8 Chinese Wind Turbine Producers among the top 15 global WTG suppliers.Now China is looking to make major inroads into offshore wind energy which is dominated by Europe.China has the only offshore wind farm in Asia off Shanghai and is looking to rapidly ramp up as its energy needs keep growing.With more than 70% of China's electricity coming from dirty coal and the country already consuming 3 billion tons of coal a year,energy sources have to be diversified urgently.
June 21, 2011
China does not have many friends in its neighborhood,in fact it does not have any friends with relations with most countries being quite tense.The only friends it has is a tinpot communist dictatorship North Korea which has managed to keep its citizens in the Stone Age and Pakistan which is well on its way to become a failed state with a suicide bombing a day.What is interesting is that China holds the world record for sharing borders with the maximum number of countries,so one would consider it prudent to hold good relations with a large number of them.On the contrary China has had tense relations with almost all of them with low level military incidents the order of the day.China has a very cagey relationship with India where tensions have risen all the time with numerous friction points like Tibet,Arunachal Pradesh,supplying Pakistan with arms and building ports in smaller countries.South Korea alleged cyberattack a few months ago from hackers close to the Chinese government as well.
June 21, 2011
Japan's Solar Energy Manufacturing Industry is quite large and second only to China which may surprise a lot of readers. Sharp was the largest solar company by revenues and the other six zaibatsus have been present in the solar power manufacturing for a long time.Mitsubishi the Japanese conglomerate with diversified global interests has a big presence in solar and wind energy as well.It has a low profile solar module and system business.The company is known for its high quality panels and has a decent presence in USA and Japan.However like Kyocera it has not been aggressive enough leading to loss in marketshare.
May 31, 2011
Japanese Nuclear Giant Toshiba which is the second largest seller of complex nuclear equipment globally is looking to shift its focus towards Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency.The company is already facing delays in shipping nuclear reactors to customers as the Fukushima Disaster makes governments around the world rethink their nuclear power ambitions.The Nuclear Energy Disadvantages are winning over the Advantages currently in public sentiment.Toshiba which acquired US Westinghouse has a target of selling 39 nuclear reactors which is getting delayed.With advanced nuclear power countries like Germany,Switzerland and Japan killing nuclear energy,the going looks tough for Toshiba.The company was already facing tough competition from the GE-Hitachi and Areva as well as new players from South Korea and China in the nuclear equipment market.
May 31, 2011
According to the Financial Express, a top US Thin Film Based module manufacturer is exploring the possibility of setting up a facility in Tamil Nadu with an investment of $500 million (approximately R2,255 crore) in the coming months.Note the sources have not revealed the name of the company but it is evident from the investment amount,solar technology that the company is First Solar.A a top level team from the company is expected to visit sometime early next week to initiate discussions with the state government officials.Note First Solar has been emphasizing the importance of India for its growth aiming to supply 100 MW of solar panels in 2011 itself which would make it a leader in the Indian solar industry.Other top solar panel companies like Suntech and Trina too have been investing heavily in selling their solar panels in India through partnerships with local companies.
May 30, 2011
Coal has become the hottest energy topic in the world’s fastest growing economies India and China which depend on Coal for a majority of their Energy […]
May 30, 2011
German utilities have protested against the move as recently they were buoyed by the decision of the Merkel led government to extend the life of the nuclear reactors by more than 10 years.However the weight of public opinion has made the German government go into the damage control phase ( though too late in my opinion.German power companies too know that going against popular opposition will be quite fruitless.Note Germany faces problems as the replacement of the 7 shutdown nuclear reactors will be difficult to replace.Solar Power has been playing an important role but in winter this problem may become acute.According to some analysts,Germany will have to import power (nuclear as well) from other European countries.This will lead to increase in electricity prices.However its a great win for all forms of Green Energy as Germany has no alternative but to go with Green Energy as Germany does not have abundant reserves of Cheap Gas (like USA).Also Coal has its disadvantages which make it very difficult in an environmentally conscious country like Germany.
May 29, 2011
Switzerland has voted to not build any new nuclear reactors and not to extend the life of the existing nuclear plants once their expected life ends.The […]
May 28, 2011
Samsung SDI one of the many companies of the largest Korean Chaebol Samsung has become the Green Sword Arm.Note Samsung SDI already is responsible for the […]
May 14, 2011
Electronic Waste is a massive problem in the Developed and Developing world with Thousands of Tons of Hazardous Electronic Waste being generated each year.With Electronics getting more ubiquitous and costs falling rapidly,Electronic Waste Problem is only going to increase.E-Waste is responsible not only for releasing dangerous substances into the environment it also causes deaths and injuries to poor in countries like India,China and Africa who are forced to work in extremely bad conditions.Electronic Waste Recycling is the need of the hour but the governments around the world have not pushed hard enough.Europe has been at the forefront with the WEEE directive passed in 2002 while USA has been a laggard as usual failing to prevent toxic waste from being dumped in landfills and shipped to poor countries with lax environmental regulations.Electronic Waste Recycling Act of 2003 has been passed in California which again as usual has been leading the federal government on clean technology legislation.
May 13, 2011
WEEE refers to the Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment Directive issued by the European Community on Electronic and Electrical Waste alongwith the ROHS Directive in 2003 which regulates the collection,recycling and disposal of electronic and electrical equipment.The Directive are 2002/96/EC and 2002/95/EC.WEEE makes it mandatory for the producers of to dispose of the Electronic Waste.Unlike the USA which does not have such a strict policy,the companies must do so in an environment friendly way and can't just export all the electronic junk ot Africa,India and China which has been the way of the industry till then.
The legislation provides for the creation of collection schemes where consumers return their used e-waste free of charge. The objective of these schemes is to increase the recycling and/or re-use of such products. It also requires heavy metals such as lead, mercury, cadmium, and hexavalent chromium and flame retardants such as polybrominated biphenyls (PBB) or polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) to be substituted by safer alternatives.The EU’s WEEE and RoHS laws simply serve as a template for national laws. They are transposed into national law at national level.Member States are required to draw up a register of producers and collect information on an annual basis on the quantities and categories of electrical and electronic equipment placed on their market, collected, re-used, recycled and recovered within that Member State and on collected waste exported.
May 12, 2011
The Chinese Wind Industry has around 80 wind turbine companies many of which are quite small and don't' have the money and expertise to compete in the international markets.Though the Chinese dominate the top global wind turbine companies list with 7 of the top 15 WTG companies Chinese,many are not competitive.Sinovel which has become the largest wind turbine company has recently canceled order for Electrical Control Systems from American Superconductor citing high inventory.Other Wind Turbine companies are in even more trouble as the industry suffers from huge overcapacity.The Chinese Wind Capacity has grown at 100% CAGR to reach 18 GW in 2010.However this strong growth has led to saturation of the wind market and price wars are being seen in China.Exports to other countries have been difficult as the cost of transportation of Wind Turbines is high.Besides Chinese Wind Companies don't possess strong technology and quality unlike established ones like Vestas,Gamesa,GE and Siemens.Though Dongfang and Shanghai Electric have managed to win some Turbine Orders in India,the export percentage is negligible.Wind Power in India too has reached a stable growth level and a number of wind companes in India are fighting for marketshare as well.
May 11, 2011
Nuclear Energy has been dealt a very heavy blow with Japan deciding to stop building any new nuclear plants from now onwards.PM Kan in a dramatic move announced that Japan's plan to build 14 new nuclear reactors which would increase the share of nuclear power to 50% from 30% has been canceled.The new energy plan of Japan will have more focus on renewable energy and energy efficiency.Note Germany had already shut down 7 of its old nuclear plants with immediate effect following the Fukushima disaster.These nuclear reactors have almost no chance of being started back as hundreds of thousands of German protested against nuclear energy and the Green Party won its first government in Germany.Italy and Switzerland too have put their nuclear power plants under review while other countries too are slowing down the approval process for new nuclear reactors.Nuclear Power in its current form seems to be dying in the developed world with other developed countries too facing opposition to nuclear plants.Note the effects of Nuclear Radiation are quite deadly and widespread even in lower doses or sieverts as was brought to the fore during the Fukushima disaster.It can lead to billions of dollars in lost economic activity.Already 3 major disasters have unfolded in the last 40 years in USA,Russia and Japan despite the safety touted by the Nuclear Industry.
May 10, 2011
Mongolia has been chosen by the two countries to open a nuclear wastes storage site for their companies radioactive waste.GE-Hitachi and Toshiba-Westinghouse are two of the three largest nuclear equipment suppliers in the world and have big plans to export billions of dollars of reactors to emerging markets.These will generate huge levels of waste which would need disposing of.Mongolia is a convenient dumping ground as it a developing country with lax environmental laws.The country has big plans for uranium extraction and building on nuclear power plants as well.Another case of dumping of toxic waste on developing countries by developed countries.Note the citizens of Japan and USA have made life difficult for those wanting to construct permanent nuclear waste storage facilities.Having failed to dump dangerous waste near their citizens,the government of these countries plan to dump the radioactive waste on poor citizens of Mongolia.
May 10, 2011
Ontario Canada has a comprehensive solar subsidy policy which mandate that a large percentage of solar components be manufactured in Ontario in order to receive the Feed in Tariffs.This has led to a mini manufacturing boom in the province with a number of companies like Conergy,MEMC,Enphase,Canadian Solar putting up factories to take advantage of the FIT.Japan which is also a large manufacturer of solar panels with major Japanese solar companies like Sharp,Kyocera has taken Canada to the WTO citing improper competitive practises.India which has one of the largest potential in solar energy installation too has promulgated a law that requires domestic content requirements.Solar Modules must be produced in India to gain FIT under the JNNSM.This law is expected to become stricter with solar cells also to be produced in the country in the future.This has drawn howls of protest from American officials who too tried domestic content in their subsidies under the Stimulus Act.