World Economy and Markets
May 6, 2011
China has been rewriting its renewable energy plan in the wake of the Fukushima Nuclear Energy Disaster in Japan.Note there has been a strong global backlash against nuclear energy around the world and 7 nuclear plants in Germany have been closed all but in name.Other countries like South Korea,Italy,Switzerland are rethinking of what do about their nuclear reactors giving the massive tail risks with nuclear generation.China had a target of only 20 GW of solar by 2020 has decided to raise the target by 150% to 50 GW according to the country's leading energy planning authority NRDC.Note China installed more than 15 GW of Wind Energy in 2010 alone becoming the world’s largest Wind Energy Market by far.Solar Energy strongly lags Wind in China despite China having the biggest solar panel manufacturing industry in the world.Its Golden Sun and other Solar Subsidy programs have been small in absolute terms compared to its huge electricity capacity.
May 3, 2011
Grantham has made a famous call that the rise in commodities is not a cyclical phenomenon but a secular long term one.He says that the rise in commodity prices is different from the past.Note Grantham has done an extensive study of bubbles and is one of the leading minds in the investment community.While every time in the past,the statement "this time is different" has led to a crash,Grantham's call cannot be taken lightly.He says that the rise in population,shortage of resources,the growing consumption power of massive chunks of prosperous citizens in India and China will lead to a continued surge.Note commodity prices have declined secularly in the last century and since 2000 have managed to erase all their losses to form new peaks.Grantham also says there is a possibility of a massive short term decline which will give a historic opportunity to load on commodities.Jim Rogers is the most famous commodity bull and now Grantham has joined him.Note famous hedge fund managers have already made huge bets on gold and are winning currently.Note CIA and German Military are already on the record for calling Peak Oil which would lead to a drastic fall in living conditions worldwide as the global growth fueled by cheap fossil fuels sees an end
May 3, 2011
Coal M&A is picking up at a feverish pace as the demand and price of coal shoot through the roof.Note Coal is the cheapest fossil fuel and powers most of the world's power plants despite its disadvantages.The abundance and cheapness of coal has managed to hide its deleterious effects.Indian and Chinese companies are gobbling up coal mines and companies globally as they rush to secure raw material for the growing thermal power plant capacity.The Adani Group is one of the leading Indian private power companies setting up gigawatts of new thermal power plant capacity.Mundhra Port the Adani Flagship has been buying up coal plants,ports and building power plants to vertically integrate itself in the whole coal supply chain.It recently bought the Australian Linnc Energy's Gaililee coal project for USD 2.7 billion.It has followed it up by buying Abbot Point Coal Terminal from the Queensland state of Australia for 1.8 billion Australian dollars.
May 2, 2011
Osama Bin Laden used to live in an area which was populated with affluent retired Pakistani senior military offiicers.The compound had 18 foot walls,barbed wire and internet connections.The compound was built in Abbotabad which is just 35 kms away from the Pakistan capital of Islamabad.Living in such a big compound amongst important military officials it would take a really dumb person to think that Pakistan government did not know or shelter Osama Bin Laden.It is a damning indictment of the Pakistani establisment.Note a number of terrorist incidents have a common origin in Pakistan.The Mumbai terrorist bombing in which the prime accused has said that Pakistani government officials were in the know about the bombings in which Americans and Israelis were targeted in India's financial capital Mumbai.The failed London bombing too had its origin in Pakistan.Now this operation which was conduced in the very heart of Pakistan to kill the most dreaded terrorist the world has seen.
May 2, 2011
Osama Bin Laden the architect of the dealiest terrorist attack in human history when the Twin Towers and numerous other targest in US were attacked using airline planes has been killed.10 years after starting the campaign to kill Osama Bin Laden,US today said a military mission in Abbotabad Pakistan managed to kill the dreaded fanatic.Note Al Qaeda is the most dangerous international terrorist organization with roots in the badlands of Pakistan and Afganistan.He has been long been suspected of being sheltered in Pakistan which has become a worse hotbed of terrorism than Afganistan.What was surprising that Osama was hiding near the capital of Pakistan which implies that top officials of the Pakistani government had to be involved in hiding Osama.It is an open secret that Pakistan which is being touted as the "US ally" in fight against terrorism has long been playing a double game.The death of Osama in Pakistan brings irrefutable proof to this fact.
April 25, 2011
China has recently put increased scrutiny and control over the mining,smelting and export of important minerals like tungsten and rare earth oxides.Note mining in China often takes place illegaly without any regard to environment in quest for a quick buck.Japan which is the largest importer of rare earth oxides from China gets most of its demand met through illegal mining.However China has cracked down on this practise as it regards these minerals like tungsten,iron,rare earth,antimony and molybdenum as important for national goals.China has severely curtailed the exports of rare earth exports leading to a sharp rise in rare earth prices and stocks of rare earth companies.This has sparked concern in developed countries and blocks like EU,Japan and USA which has taken the case to the WTO.
April 18, 2011
Offshore Wind Farms are the fastest growing segments in the Wind Energy Industry area boosted by improvements in Wind Technology and subsidies by the government.Offshore Wind Energy is growing the fasted in the United Kingdom which is surprising considering the poor state of Green Energy there.Europeans are leading the way in offshore wind energy given their massive strengths in Wind Technology.However other major Wind Turbine Companies are also developing their capabilities by spending millions of dollars on offshore wind turbine R&D.Offshore Wind Farms have also come in for criticism because of their higher costs and the longer time to install them.Note offshore wind projects offer even more Wind Energy Advantages than normal Land Based Wind Farms.The only problem facing offshore wind power is high costs as the industry still is on the learning curve with only 1.5% of the world's total installed wind capacity coming from offshore wind farms.
April 16, 2011
Labor Cost Arbitrage is the biggest reason for the growth of the Indian outsourcing industry.The outsourcing revolution in India which started though technology outsourcing has spread to the legal,medical and other fields as well.Medical Billing,Coding and Transcription has become a big business besides Legal Outsourcing of work.Globalization of finance and trade has been much more rapid than the globalization of labor which faces many hurdles.The spread of Internet and improvement in Communications has made this hurdle moot as many high cost services in India are being performed virtually over the Internet.However this arbitrage which has bought billions in profits to global corporations and rise of new companies such as Infosys,TCS and others is disappearing.Rising Wage Inflation in India caused by a multitude of factors including the Bernanke Money Printing has led to shrinking of the margins.
April 15, 2011
eSolar is a US based Solar Thermal Technology Startup which has managed to raise $182 million from top VCs and investors and managed to win contracts to build solar power plants using its properietary Power Tower Technology in the US,China and India.Note like Brightsource Energy,eSolar is one of the most promising CSP startups which has managed to get funding and contracts,it now needs to execute to deliver on its potential.
Solar is using the Power Tower Technology same as Brightsource Technology which differs from the parabolic trough mainstream CSP Technology.Note Parabolic Trough Technology is used by most of the established Spanish players like Abengoa.It is also the Technology used in the 392 MW largest solar thermal plant in the US built in the 1980s by Luz.In this technology thousands of heliostats (mirrors) reflect the solar light onto a "Power Tower" where water or salt is heated up.This heat energy is then transferred into Electrical Energy through standard Steam Turbines and Generators used in Gas,Nuclear and Thermal Power Plants.
April 15, 2011
Suniva is the only crystalline solar Solar Companies in the US which has been able to survive and thrive in recent times.Sunpower too has resurrected itself through strategic JVs and acquisitions.The main reason for the decline of the US solar companies has been the severe competition from the low cost Chinese Solar Industry.This has made companies like Energy Conversion Devices and Evergreen Solar shut down US factories and look towards Mexico and China to build low cost factories.However Suniva has managed to face all these competitive threats quite successfully and is looking to expand capacity in the US by building a 400 MW factory.The company even refused a DOE Loan Guarantee saying that the terms were too onerous.The company has manged to raise more then $130 million in equity and has won contracts to supply high efficiency solar cells to the Asian companies which is a first.Suniva differentiates itself through its technology which allows the production of high efficiency monocrystalline solar cells at lower cost.Note Sunpower makes the highest efficiency cells in the world in the range of 22-24% but its cost structure is too high.Suniva is looking to challenge the Taiwanese Cell Producers by marrying higher efficiency with lower cost.
April 15, 2011
Areva the French Nuclear Giant which is known more for producing equipment for nuclear power plants is been awarded federal funding by the Australian Government to build a solar coal hybrid plant in Queensland.The 44 MW Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Plant will be built near a 750 Thermal Power Station.This will be the second solar coal hybrid plant in the world when its gets finished in 2013.Note Areva has huge plans in the Solar Thermal Technology Industry after buying startup Ausra sometimes ago.The company which is an expert in power plant equipment technology such as boilers,turbines will use its expertise to build a CSP plant adding to the power output of the Kogan Creek Thermal Station.Note the cost mentioned implies around $2.4/watt which does not seem expensive.The CSP Coal Hybrid will not require storage which will help in reducing the costs of the power plant.Note a number of Fossil Fuel Solar Hybrid Plants are being planned around the world.Almost all of these power plants use CSP Technology instead of the PV Technology.Its a valuable niche for Solar Thermal Companies to explore as they face huge competition from Solar PV which is drastically reducing its costs to reach retail electricity price equality.
April 13, 2011
Nuclear Recycling is the processing of the nuclear waste generated from the nuclear fuel cycle to extract useful elements like uranium and plutonium which can reused again in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle to generate electricity.About 97% of the used fuel can be recycled leaving only 3% as high-level waste. The recyclable portion is mostly uranium depleted to less than 1% U-235, with some plutonium, which is most valuable. Arising from a year's operation of a typical l000 MWe nuclear reactor, about 230 kilograms of plutonium (1% of the spent fuel) is separated in reprocessing. This can be used in fresh mixed oxide (MOX) fuel (but not weapons, due its composition). MOX fuel fabrication occurs in Europe, with some 25 years of operating experience. The main plant is in France, and started up in 1995.Major commercial reprocessing plants are operating in France and UK, with capacity of almost 5000 tonnes of used fuel per year, - equivalent to at least one third of the world's annual output. A total of some 90,000 tonnes of spent fuel has been reprocessed at these over 40 years.
April 13, 2011
Nuclear Waste is one of the most difficult waste products to transport and store because of its dangerous radioactive effects.Given the long life of some of the transuranic elements Nuclear Waste has to be stored in a safe manner for thousands of years which is a tough given that the chances of leakage become enormous in such a long time scale.Storing of Nuclear Waste has to be performed in a extremely complicated manner which is also enormously costly.Also there are problems of NIMBY with Nuclear Waste Storage as nearby residents don't want such toxic waste stored anywhere close especially as it does not bring any economic or social benefits.Not there is no permanent storage site despite many decades of planning and billions of dollars being spent.While Japan and Europe reprocess the fuel in the hope that they will be used again that remains a dream with thousands of tons of HLW piling up.USA does not reprocess and also has more than 60,000 tons of nuclear waste waiting for a final home.Till then most of the spent nuclear fuel is being stored in spent fuel pools and dry casks making them vulnerable just like another Fukushima
April 12, 2011
A study of soil samples conducted by a team of experts from Kyoto University and Hiroshima University has revealed that as much as 400 times the normal levels of radiation could remain in communities beyond a 30-kilometer radius from the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant.The study found cesium-137 at levels between about 590,000 and 2.19 million becquerels per cubic meter.After the Chernobyl nuclear accident in the former Soviet Union in 1986, residents who lived in areas where cesium-137 levels exceeded 555,000 becquerels were forced to move elsewhere.
April 11, 2011
Solar Power Plants till a couple of years were quite small compared to the mainstream energy power plants.Most power plants were in the double digit range with no Solar Farms having the capacity of 100 MW or greater.This is in reference to PV Solar Power Plants and not to Solar Thermal Plants which are bigger in size.Note Solar Thermal Plants by the very nature of technology require larger sizes to be economical just like Thermal or Nuclear Power Plants.On the other hand PV Power Plants do not gain much in economies of scale and government prefer giving subsidies to distributed rooftop solar installations rather than large solar farms.
April 11, 2011
Meyer Burger (MBTN.S) the 6th largest supplier of solar equipment in the world jumped up 2 places by acquiring the 7th largest global solar equipment manufacturer Roth & Rau of Germany for a little over $500 million.The combined company will have revenues of over $900 million overtaking another Germany company Centrotherm with $825 million in revs.Note Applied Materials continues to be the market leader in the solar equipment market with $1.5 billion in solar equipment revenues just like it is the leader in the semiconductor equipment market.Note while European solar module producers have seen their marketshare and revenues crumbling in the face of the Chinese onslaught , there domination of the solar equipment continues. European Solar Companies had found things going tough in 2009 as the solar market changed radically with the Lehman crisis.As the prices of the raw material Polysilicon crashed and Chinese competition increased,these companies started bleeding red ink in a prodigious manner.The high cost structure of these companies with factories in Europe stood naked against the competition.With high debt loads,there was a high chance that these companies would go bankrupt.Most of them like Q-Cells,REC started to move manufacturing to Asia while Solarworld moved to Europe.
April 11, 2011
Coal is the biggest source of Energy for Electricity Production in the world and its use is expected to continue to grow to 44% of the Electricity Production by 2030 (IEA).Despite Coal having many dangerous disadvantages,its Advantages of cheapness and abundance have made it the Fossil Fuel of choice.With global reserves estimated to be around 200 years,it does not have the "peak oil" characteristics as well.Though not a Coal Fan,nonetheless Coal stocks are a great investment choice due to the fact of its growing demand which is outstripping supply.China and India are massively growing their electricity,steel and cement production which requires billions of tons of coal.China consumers almost 45% of the global coal production while Indian demand is growing by leaps and demands as well.Indian Power Utilities are grabbing up Coal Mines in Africa,Australia and Asia to secure feedstock for their gigawatt thermal power plants.Despite its growing importance Coal does not have a lot of choice in terms of investment unlike Fossil Fuels like Oil and Gas.Here is a list of Coal Stocks which one can invest in and the sole Coal ETF - Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL).
April 8, 2011
China Wind Power Market has become the biggest in the world with more than 18 GW of capacity installed in one single year Note China has managed to double its capacity each year since 2005 and at the end of 2010 Wind Capacity totalled 44 GW which makes China the biggest Wind Power country in the world overtaking the USA.China has now got 7 of the Top 15 Global Wind Turbine Manufacturers and 2 of the Top 3 WTG Companies.China's Massive Demand for Energy has made power plants mushroom in the country where more than 70% of the electricity is met by Coal.Wind Energy still forms only a small part of the power mix at less than 7% of the total power capacity and serves only a fraction of the Kwh of electricity given the lower load factor of Wind Power.Note Wind Power has grown in China as its Advantages as a Clean Source of Energy far outweigh its Cons.However the rapid demand growth has made a top inevitable as a country can only install that many megawatts in a year.
April 8, 2011
USA has been one of the worst countries in the world in regards to climate change and global warming issues.While countries have pledged to cut down […]
April 8, 2011
TEPCO the owner and operator of the Damaged Fukushima Nuclear Plant reproted that its Onagawa Nuclear Power Plant in the Miyage Prefeture also leaked very small amounts of radioactive water.About 3.8 kgs of radiated water from one of the spent fuel rod pools spilled as three out of four external power supply units in Onagawa shut down leaving only one power source to cool the spent fuel. at the Nuclear Plant failed after the 7.4 Richter Scale Earthquake off the seas near Fukushima.The cooling systems have been restored and there is no more damage at the Nuclear Plant like Fukushima.Note the workers at the Damaged Dai-ichi were evacuated due to the Tsunami Warning issued in the aftermath of the Earthquake.These workers have again returned in their radiation fighting work at the Plant.USA said that it seems that the worst scenario of serious contamination from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident has probably passed.
April 7, 2011
It is surprising to see the US Media jumping about saying the General Electric will build the biggest solar factory in the US when it is completely factually wrong.There are other companies that add 400 MW in a single quarter these days (eg.LDK). By the time GE builds its 400 MW Cadmium Tellurium Solar Panel facility,there will be around 20 players in the world with more than 1000 MW capacity.GE has been claiming high efficiencies for its Thin Film Solar Panels but the claims that it will be able to dethrone First Solar as the Leader seems far fetched currently.Note First Solar will have almost 7 times more capacity worldwide by the time GE builds its first solar panel facility.GE has been long been developing the Cadmium Tellurium Technology buying up Prime Solar.
April 7, 2011
Seoul witnessed Radioactive Rain as winds blew from neighboring Japan which has witnessed the second biggest nuclear energy accident after Chernobyl.Though the the Rain contains cesium and iodine particles they are well within the safety limits according to the South Korean Nuclear Safety Regulator.South Korea has already protested against the lack of information about the Nuclear Emissions and the Deliberate Dumping of Toxic Seawater by TEPCO.However many schoolchildren stayed at home as worried parents were concerned about the impact of the radiation.China the other major close nation in proximity to Japan has also detected low levels of iodine in spinach in 3 provinces.China had earlier reported trace levels of radiation in Guangdong and Shanghai.Note Iodine has a very low half-life so that problem should not persist for long.However cesium is another matter as it can lodge inside human body and keep emitting for a long time internally.
April 6, 2011
American Superconductor (AMSC) which is one of the top rated wind stock in the US crashed by more than 40% as its largest customer AMSC is mainly a seller wind turbine core electrical components and full wind turbine electrical control systems (ECS).It has also made pilot sales of high capacity super conducting equipment to some customer like Tres Amigas.Sinovel which is also the 2nd biggest Wind Power Company in the world refused to take contracted shipments of wind turbine core electrical components and spare parts.The reason given was high inventory levels but the company failed to explain why Sinovel which is a multi billion dollar company has refused to pay AMSC for certain contracted shipments made in fiscal year 2010.Note $56 million in payments related to Fiscal 2010 quarters have been not paid to AMSC ( which would have been recognized as revenue).None of this was disclosed till now leading to a class action shareholder lawsuit against the company.It is quite perplexing why your largest customer will not pay you for past shipments and then cancel shipments as well.Is it because of some acrimony or is just Sinovel using its massive size to squash a small supplier.
April 6, 2011
The ongoing problems at the stricken Japanese Nuclear Plant at Fukushima may see new problems given the prolonged cooling by water.Note it has already manifested itself as 11,500 tons of radiated water was dumped into the Pacific leading to protests from South Korea and dangerously contaminated fish.Further problems may arise as NY Times reports from a nuclear assessment report on each of the 6 reactors at the Dai-ichi plant.The tons of seawater being used to cool the temperature could result in a dangerous structural damage to the containment vessels of the reactors.Note this unconventional cooling of the Nuclear Plant may give rise to unthought of problems and complications.The spent fuel rods where hydrogen is being generated may react violently with oxygen in the air leading to violent explosion as was seen in Reactor 2 in the early part of the crisis.Salt has also been accumulating in the reactor from the seawater which may prevent circulation of newly added water.
April 6, 2011
USA has been sorely lacking in the fight against Climate Change and Global Warming.Greenhouse Gas Emissions by the US has increased tremendously from 1990 the benchmark year when countries under Kyoto Protocol pledged to reduced their Carbon Emissions.However US has refused to do anything and has not even signed the Kyoto Protocol.The hopelessly rudderless leadership in the US has failed to pass any Clean Energy Laws like Cap and Trade ( not my favorite),Federal RPS etc.Some states have been showing proactive leadership like California despite massive opposition by the powerful oil and gas lobby (Valero,Koch Brothers).Their efforts are being stymied by the very rich who don't care about global warming as they can easily use their money to mitigate any affect on them and the powerful fossil fuel lobby with their thinktank puppets.
April 5, 2011
The massive dumping of radiation seawater by TEPCO into the Pacific Ocean has triggered outrage amongst various stakeholder groups.Fishermen are angry at is will massively affect the marine life who are bound to get poisoned by the 11,500 tons of radioactive water which is 100 times over the legal limit.A fishing industry group in Fukushima prefecture has asked Tepco to stop releasing toxic water into the sea near the power plant as Radioactive iodine and cesium were found in fish caught off the coast of Ibaraki, north of Tokyo.The Fishermen are already facing a bad time are bound to get hit even worse from this.Green Groups are protesting this deliberate ejection and say that it might be unethical to dump the water if not illegal under international laws.Green Groups are protesting the fact that more efforts could not have been made to store the water in ship tankers or overland facilities instead of taking the easy way out and dumping it in the Pacific.Note the radioactivity spewed from the Japanese Nuclear Plants is affecting nations globally.South Korea which lies very close to Japan has expressed concerns over the toxic water being dumped into the ocean.
April 4, 2011
Marine Life is expected to be badly affected from the radioactive water.Note IAEA has already found high levels of radiation well beyond the evacuation zone and Greenpeace too has warned about high levels of radioactivtiy.TEPCO has its reputation badly tarnished as it has failed to disclose the levels of radiation and different radioactive elements like Cesium.Note the Japanese Farmers are already facing years of losses and the Fishermen too seems destined to join them as the thousands of tons of water will probably lead to Fishes becoming toxic in that region.
April 4, 2011
Climate Change and Global Warming have been put in the Cold Storage by most world governments as there is little will to fight one of the most pressing challenges facing mankind.With the successive Copenhagen and Cancun Climate Change Meets coming up as croppers,the Poor are left to fight the drastic affects of Climate Change in the face of Severe Weather like Droughts,Floods,Increase Sea Levels.Australia stupidly cut the funding for various Green Programs after facing one of the worst floods in the last century.It did not occur to the short term focused politicians that the Floods may have their root cause in Global Warming.Instead of increasing resources to fight Climate Change,they cut the Funding to help in the Flood Rehabilitation Programs
April 3, 2011
A crack in a concrete pit near the Reactor 2 of the Fukushima Plant has been found to be the source of leakage of highly radioactive seawater which was said to reach around 4585 times the legal limit.TEPCO had found the crack in a pit near the Reactor 2 which was leaking this dangerous seawater which was being used to cool the damaged nuclear reactors.An attempt to fill the crack in the pit by pouring concrete failed as the water made the sealing process through concrete impossible.Now a new polymer will be tried to seal the crack though it beats me why it did not occur to the engineers there that the water will make the process of pouring concrete fail.After almost 4 weeks since the nuclear crisis began in Japan operators of the plant are no closer to regaining control of damaged reactors, as fuel rods remain overheated and high levels of radiation are flowing into the sea.
April 2, 2011
The strict environmental regulations of EPA is leading to converion of a Virgina Coal Plant to a Biomass Fired one.Note the US Congress and Senate have failed to move ahead on climate legislation remaining hopelessly deadlocked on any climate deal.Despite numerous draft laws,no common law has been passed as Republicans fail completely in understanding global warming remaining in the pockets of the powerful oil and gas lobby.EPA remains the only government body which is doing something to reduce pollution and at the same time fight for climate change.The strict new rules against emission of harmful gases like sulfur dioxide,nitrous oxide,mercury has forced a Virginia Coal Plant to convert from thermal to biomass.