USA
October 26, 2010
Putting up Solar Panels on prominent landmarks is an easy and cheap way to promote Green Energy.In the last few years, a number for prominent places in the world have been installing solar energy in an effort to reduce GHGs and to publicize the clean economy.It advertises the advantages of putting solar panels in powering buildings which account for 40% of the global energy usage.'s Sydney's Opera House,India's Golden Temple are some of the other landmarks that have installed solar panels to cut fossil fuel use and encourage the use of renewable energy.White House has also decided to install solar panels next year after a prolonged campaign by green activists.Note White House had earlier installed solar panels during the time of Jimmy Carter and the OPEC Oil Embargo.These has been decommissioned by Reagan reflecting changed energy fundamentals.India's Parliament House has now decided to go green using solar panels and biomass plants to drastically reduce its carbon footprint.The Indian Parliament generate a huge amount of food waste which will help in powering the biomass plant.
October 26, 2010
California and the Federal Government have recently approved a number of big Solar Thermal Plants totaling around 2800 MW.These plants utilize Concentrated Solar Thermal (CSP) Technology and uses mirrors and towers instead of normal PV panels.The haste with which these plants are being permitted and approved is mainly due to the expiry of the Treasury Grant Scheme by end of 2010.According the the American Stimulus rules,only Green Projects which have broken ground or spent 5% of their costs would be eligible for the 30% Cash Subsidy.6 Huge Solar Thermal Plants have been approved with the biggest Blythe plant being the most recent.The capital costs for these plants are extremely high at around $6/watt which makes me question their economics.PV panels can be installed at around $3-3.5 /watt which is around 40-50% lower.Despite the higher capacity factors for Solar Thermal Plants and their ability to store energy for a short period,the cost difference is too large.
October 25, 2010
Wind Energy Companies in the Developed Markets have taken it on the chin in 2010.Companies dependent on the Wind Energy Markets in the West like Vestas,Gamesa,Suzlon,Iberdola Renewables etc. have had a very bad 2010 as their stocks price keep finding new lows.A Combination of Tough Financing Markets,Low Gas Prices and Declining Electricity Demand has made the livers of Wind Executives hellish in recent times.More competition in terms of Chinese heavyweights like Sinovel,Goldwind and Koean shipbuidlers precludes an easy recovery.Green IPOs in recent times have faced huge volatility with some managing success while others have led to huge losses.China's Ming Yang Power which is a Chinese Turbine Manufacturer has seen a 30% erosion of its IPO stock price of $14 as it was priced a tad too aggressively.First Wind which is a bit different being a Wind Energy Developer similar to renewable energy developers like Enel Green Power,EDF Novellas might face a frosty reception as well.Its not a good time to be in the wind energy business as increasing competition and declining demand cause problems.Note John Deere sold off its Renewable Energy Arm for a bargain as US Climate Change Legislation seems stuck in an everlasting limbo.Without a Federal RPS and an expiring 30% Treasury Cash Grant for Wind Farms,2011 is very uncertain for Wind Energy in the USA.
October 24, 2010
WTO Defers Chinese Case to 2011
European Union,Mexico and USA had filed a case with WTO in 2009 over the Chinese monopoly and trade resticitions of rare earth minerals.However WTO has failed to resolve the issue despite a time limit of 6 months.The WTO Panel has defered the WTO case to April 2011 without assigning a reason.WTO is more of a negotiatino forum rather than a body which can punish violators .To expect WTO to make China increase it export quota of rare earth minerals is like living in a fool's paradise.Trade Tensions between China and other world trade powers is already very high.Currency and Global Imbalances are already major issues which threaten to derail the world economic recovery (however faint it maybe).Rare Earth Minerals are proving to be another big thorn in trade relations between China and the West.
October 22, 2010
While Section 301 was a powerful, unilateral U.S. trade policy weapon prior to the establishment of the WTO dispute settlement process, since 1995 it has rarely been invoked and has not produced any sanctions or WTO cases. In a post-WTO world, therefore, the USW petition could be said to be unprecedented. It is the first to be accepted by USTR that, if proven, would, invalidate for WTO purposes what amounts to a national industrial policy. It would seriously undermine the validity of China’s efforts to create “national champions” in certain sectors, to focus on building domestic capacity to address its environmental and energy challenges, and to be a significant, and possibly the dominant, global player in green technologies. Beyond the impact on China, a successful U.S. challenge in the WTO would inevitably chill similar efforts in other countries to use the Chinese industrial development template in other sectors. All of these effects are above and beyond the question of the immediate fall-out that could result if China declines to implement an adverse WTO finding and the U.S. compensation and retaliation is authorized.
October 22, 2010
South Korea has said that it would reduce its dependence on China for rare earth minerals.The Country has reduced imports of Rare Earth Minerals from 7398 tons in 2005 to 2655 tons in 2009.Note most of the reduction came after South Korean Chaebols Samsung and LG shifted their production from CRTs to LCD and Plasma Display Panels.The country now imports 65% of its REE requirements from China and most of the rest from Japan.The country plans to increase cooperation with traditional ally USA and Japan to meet future demand for these commodities.However I have my doubt whether South Korea can reduce its dependence.South Korea has embarked on a major Green Stimulus which is the biggest as a percentage amongst Developed Countries.This is going to mean increased demand for rare earth minerals which are essential for Magnets in Wind Turbines and Batteries and Catalytic Converters for Electric Vehicles.Japan is already planning huge investments into developing alternate supply sources,perhaps South Korea needs to show that urgency as well
October 21, 2010
The HPUC has given a FIT rate which is quite low for solar energy and has failed to implement a policy for installations between 500-5000 KW.Also the FIT rates for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) does not make sense at all for under 500 KW installations.Don't think there exists a single decent producer of such small CSP plants.The FIT Policy was passed despite stiff opposition from the island's utilities who questioned the Feed in Tariff as a good Green Incentive.The huge success enjoyed in Europe by FIT did not make a big impression.Note 80% of the world's solar installations depend on Feed in Tariffs.While there have been bad implementation cases of FIT in Spain and Czech,there have been huge successes in other countries like Germany and UK.HPUC rightly decided to go ahead as trial and errors would be needed . It won't lead to a huge boom in solar in Hawai due to poor returns however it should lead to some boost to existing solar producers or those who were going to install solar anyway.
October 21, 2010
Food Prices are rising at an incredible pace around the world due to a combination of money printing by the USA and Bad Weather in Russia and Asia.The major cause of the Food Price Increase has been the global rush towards investing in commodities as currencies get devalued by countries eager to increase exports in a zero sum game.Wheat Prices were the first to rise after Russia stopped exports leading to the sharpest gain in the last 2 years.Corn prices have increased with increased demand from ethanol,bad harvests and relentless QE.Rice and Soybean prices were bound to rise in empathy with other grain prices.Note these two food varieties are substitutes of corn and wheat.So it makes sense for speculators and consumers to increase the demand for these 2 commodities as well.
Rice Price Increase after Flooding in Biggest Exporters
Rice Prices have shown a record increase after floods sharply reduced output in the 2 main exporter Vietnam and Thailand.With inventories being sharply cut and harvests going down it is not much of a surprise.Rice importing countries like Philippines will be badly hit as their per capita income is quite low and they have a large poor population highly sensitive to increasing food prices.Expect 2011 to be a Hunger Year for a large chunk of the world's population thanks to Ben Bernake and print his way to prosperity team.
October 20, 2010
Rare Earth Metals which are sold as oxides have seen an exponential price rise in recent months with the corresponding rise in stock prices of rare earth stocks like Lynas,Molycorp,Avalon,Jiangxi Copper,Chinalco,Inner Mongolia Bao-Tao etc.While China has now said that it will increase production and exports of rare earth minerals next year,the confusing signals are sure to keep the prices of the rare earth minerals high.Note the reserves and production of rare earth minerals are finite and their uses growing ,the prices of rare earth minerals are bound to increase.While the last 2 months increase has been due to a combination of geopolitical factors,quantitative easing and speculation,it looks in the years ahead rare earth price should keep increasing.Note other supply sources are being developed in Russia,Vietnam,Kazakhstan,Australia,Africa and Canada.So there will be a lots of ups and downs,however the secular growth story of rare earth prices is intact.
October 17, 2010
US Steelworkers Union filed a Trade Complaint against China over its predatory practices in Green Sectors recently listing numerous infringements.While it was not thought of as a serious complaint because all Green Sectors have an element of Subsidy from Governments.This was seen as more of a tactical maneuver to gain more concessions from Chinese Green Investors in the USA like the A-Power deal with USW to buy USA made Steel for its Wind Turbine Plant in the USA.However what has been surprising is the alacrity with which the USA administration has accepted the 301 Filing.Now the USA Government Apparatus will investigate the claims and file punitive duties and penalties on Chinese made Green Products imported into the US.This has already resulted in a major stock sell-off in Chinese Solar Stocks which were enjoying a great rally.Note this Green War is part of a general Trade Cold War between the USA and China.This threatens to derail the feeble global economic recovery that we have seen so far.Without compromise and agreement between the major global powers on reducing the huge global imbalances,this could easily result in a Depression which was averted in 2008.
October 12, 2010
The US Federal Reserve is hell bent on preventing deflation through whatever means possible.It has raised the prospect of 2008 when Commodities all over the world raced to new highs due to cuts in Interest Rates.2010 has already seen its first food riots in Africa and 2011 should more of the same.Every Commodity be it Gold,Silver,Coffee,Sugar,Rice,Wheat is jumping higher as the common denominator Dollar gets Debased by US Policies.While the stupidness of the Monetary Easing is a big exhaustive issue in itself,the prospect of higher commodity prices is a huge danger.It is already fueling dangerous equity bubbles in the emerging markets of Asia.Currency Wars are already starting to happen on a small scale as Crazy Monetary Policies take hold in the US.Food Prices are a very major problem in poor countries unlike developed countries where food forms only a small part of the daily expenditure.With Food forming 50-80% of the expenditure of poor citizens,a 50% increase in Prices immediately leads to hunger and starvation.However don't think the US Fed concerns itself with such trivial issues.
October 11, 2010
Constellation Energy has become the latest USA Utility to cancel its proposed new nuclear energy plant to be built in Maryland.Despite a Loan Guarantee from Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the US Green Stimulus,Constellation has found the economics of the Nuclear Reactors as unworkable.In fact this is keeping with the trend of other utilities in the Developed World who have found New Nuclear to be too expensive.While a number of cyclical factors are at play (Wind Energy has also been affected) in hindering the development of these plants,it seems a secular shift has occured.Finland has become the poster boy of a Nuclear Project Disaster with the main developer Areva bleeding from losses as time and cost overruns have almost doubled.The increaseing costs of environment and safety regulations has increase manifold since the last spurt of nuclear energy construction in the 1980s.The Nuclear Renaissance has proven to be a complete failure in the Western Countries.While China continues with its aggressive Nuclear Expansion plans,construction in the US has come to a virtual halt.Exelon which is the largest Nuclear Energy Operator in the USA has also halted developed of 2 new reactors in Texas.These Utilities have said that they need much higher energy prices and a carbon tax before going ahead with reaction construction.Note Exelon recently bought a Wind Energy Operator as Solar/Wind become the favored Green Energy choices.
October 7, 2010
Northrop Grumman the US Defense Giant and the largest US Shipbuilder as well is entering the Offshore Wind Energy Field.With Cape Cod very near to receiving the final approvals for setting up the first Offshore Wind Farm in the USA,Northrop sees a good opportunity.Shipbuilders around the world have recently entered the growing Green Sector of Offshore Wind.Korean Shipbuilders like Hyundai,Samsung have already set up Wind Turbine plants.Northrop on the other hand will team up with Gamesa to explore the Wind Energy field in the United States.Note Shipbuilding Industry is facing tough times with overcapacity and competition from Asian Players.Its critical for shipbuilders to look for newer greener pastures and Offshore Wind Energy is the best positioned space for them.It requires heavy industrial engineering and offshore operations both of which at shipbuilders excel at.
September 27, 2010
Brazil,Peru,Colombia and now South Korea have all joined the "Buy Dollar and Sell Local Currency" Club.The Brazilian Real has appreciated by 34% in the last 2 years while similar stories lie behind Peru and Colombian interventions as well.With yields at near zero,Developed World Investors are pouring money into debt,equity and commodities fueling some of the Emerging Markets to all time highs.Some of the valuations like the Indian market are already stretched with local investors shunning the bubble markets.Countries with large Export Sectors like South Korea are particularly sensitive to currency appreciation and are joining in the chaos that the currency markets have become.The $4 Trillion Currency Markets are too big for a single country to take on as the Swiss found out losing Billions of Dollars in the process.The Currency Chaos is set to persist as the Financial System has become Unstable with Huge Debts,Moral Hazard and Central Bank Meddling.Gold has touched an all time high of $1300 with Silver following closely.With such volatility in Currencies,Business has become quite difficult with faith in currencies eroding at a fast pace.
September 24, 2010
Offshore Wind Energy is starting to receive a huge amount of investment and attention both in Europe and Asia.Onshore wind installations facing the problems of visual impact,saturation of good windy geological locations and problems of low frequency noise.However Offshore Wind Farms face no such problems since they are located in high wind locations offshore far away from the general population.The largest Wind Farm got installed in the UK with Swedish Utility Vattenfal starting a 300 MW + Farm off the cost of Thanet.UK is at the vanguard of the Offshore Wind Energy Revolution with the largest amount of installations at 1340 MW.The Government has given out a number of approvals to another 30-40 GW of Wind Farms to a number of private players.This will not only substantially raise the Renewable Energy generated from UK but will also result in a huge number of Green Jobs and Investment.Already a number of Oil and Gas offshore companies are converting themselves to Green Ones to take advantage of the Offshore Wind Boom.The Wind Farms are being developed by big utilities like Dong,E.ON,EDP and RWE.
September 22, 2010
Not only Europe,even US is rapidly losing Green Jobs to Asia.Earlier Evergreen Solar had decided to shut down its US plant to set up a factory in China and Energy Conversion Devices is laying off workers to hire more in Mexico.The high costs of labor and capital have made it unfeasible for Western companies to manufacture in the Developed Nations.High Subsidies in the form of Low Interest Long Term Loans,Tax Holidays,Free Land have made the Asian countries irresistible to US companies.First Solar which is the largest manufacturer of panels in the world has most of its production in Malaysia where it enjoys a 15 year tax holiday.Chinese Company's get massive subsidies from the government.This combined with extremely low worker and managerial salaries make western factories totally uncompetitive in a globalized world.REC which is one of the world's biggest solar polysilicon and wafer producers has decided to shut down its module plant in Sweden.While the reason given is isolation from other factories,I suspect the costs are too high in expensive Sweden.Another European Solar Factory closes as Green Industry moves to Low Cost,Subsidy Rich Asia
September 20, 2010
US Energy Utilities have been buying up Green Companies at a rapid clip these days taking advantage of the fall in valuations of Green Companies recently.Exelon bought Deere's Wind Assets while NRG Energy bought Green Mountain Energy.Constellation Energy already has around 10% of its 9 GW of Electricity Capacity being sourced from Green Sources.Its Smart Grid buy is synergistic to is Energy Trading Core Business.It will help in expanding its customer base and sourcing new opportunities.For CPower Investors which are mainly PE players,it would be a good exit as competition in the Demand Response is increasing .
September 18, 2010
In our Financial linked world where Capital is Globalized while Regulation is not,Hot Money Flows are fueling inflation and asset based bubbles in Developing Countries.Some of the Emerging Markets are either close to or have surpassed the 2008 all time highs.Inflation is also hitting dangerous levels in some countries like Argentina,India and others.The depreciating dollar brought upon the the US Federal Reserve Printing of money has made it necessary that the Central Banks purchase Dollars.This has been done not only by Brazil and Singapore but also by Japan.With more Dollar Printing,these Purchases will increase the Liquidity in the Developing Countries.This is a sure shot recipe for high inflation which will be difficult to control.India has already raised Interest Rates 5 times this year in order to rein in the pernicious effects of high inflation on its largely poor population.
September 17, 2010
NRG Energy is one of the largest utilities in the US with around 22 GW of Installed Capacity.However like Exelon,the share of Renewables is relatively low at just 2% of its overall Energy Capacity.Though the US Administration has all but given up on an Energy and Climate Legislation,Big Utilities recognize the need to generate low carbon electricity.Some sort of Carbon Emissions Restraint will be imposed on Utilities sometime in the future with EPA itching for action in restricting CO2 Emissions.Green Sector Stocks have fallen like a rock in 2010 due to the Copenhagen Disaster and lack of movement on a Climate Bill by the US government.Therefore it makes sense for US utilities to buy Renewable Energy Assets on the Cheap.Exelon bought Deere Energy Wind Farms at a dirt cheap price.NRG Energy which has around 550 MW of Wind and Solar Capacity bought Reliant Energy last year for $300 mm.It has augmented its Renewable Energy Portfolio with another $350mm buy of Green Mountain Energy.
September 17, 2010
Rise of American Protectionism – Two cases against China in WTO and "Buy American" Bills by Congress
USA is increasing its protectionist actions recently filing 2 cases in World Trade Organisation against China over Electrical Steel and Credit Card payment providers.Only last week a US Union had filed a complaint with the US government about the Predatory Practices of Chinese Green Companies.USA thinks that China has unfairly put duties on US made Steel and it is locking out Mastercard and Visa from the credit card processing market in China.There is little doubt that China indulges in favoritism and implicit and explicit support of domestic companies.However it the scale that is the only difference .Like all other things China also implements its policies king size.MNCs in recent times like GE,Google,Siemens have all criticized Chinse discrimination against foreign companies.However WTO remains an ineffective body to resolve complex Trades Disputes.The US Congress is also getting into the China-Bashing Act by passing 2 bills that mandate "Buy American" clauses.The US has already antagonized the Indian IT Industry by specifically targeting the Indian companies like Infosys and Wipro.These new bills target China making it mandatory for government departments to buy American made goods.With November Elections fast approaching,politicians are outdoing each other in protectionist rhetoric.
September 14, 2010
Global Imbalances back to pre-Lehman Days Global Imbalances are growing deeper by the day as the world returns to its unsustainable pre-Lehman days of Unbalanced Trade.Trade […]
September 9, 2010
Enbridge the Canadian Energy Company which is mainly into the business of Gas and Oil Distribution has been aggressively expanding into Renewable Energy in the past […]
September 9, 2010
China has overtaken the US and EU in Green Industry Leadership.US Utilities like Duke Energy have openly acknowledged Chinese primacy in this regard .Investment in the Renewable Energy Sector in China at $38 billion in 2009 was more than double that in the USA.Companies in the US are outsourcing Green Jobs to Mexico and China due to high costs and lack of Government support.2010 should see this gap widen further with Chinese plans to spend almost $760 Billion in Green Investments in the next decade.The Ernst&Young Ranking of the Most Preferred Green Investment Countries has further bolstered the case of Chinese Leadership.
September 9, 2010
One of the factors behind the Yen Rise is the Chinese record buying of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs).The Japanese Finance Minister has become concerned as the Japanese cant reciprocally buy Chinese Government Bonds which are not freely traded.Note Japan has a huge government debt load of around 200% of Japans GDP which is mainly financed by domestic investors.China with its humongous Foreign Reserves is the biggest player in the Foreign Exchange Markets Today.
September 8, 2010
India’s IT Sector had recently become a victim of new US Protectionist Policies when US Legislature imposed a $2000 Visa Fee on Companies with a Large […]
September 5, 2010
.Europe and UK remain in equally difficult conditions suffering to some extent from the debt induced overhang.Hong Kong and the rest of Asia in comparison have escaped relatively unscathed and countries in the region have resumed their strong growth trajectory.Its not a wonder then that global talent is looking at Asia for newer growth opportunities.Non-Resident Indians are migrating back to their homeland in record numbers to take advantage of the booming economy.Its the same in case of other Asian centres like Singapore,Hong Kong and Shanghai.Asian companies are now raising money from capital markets in HK rather than NY.
September 1, 2010
This Program will try to avoid the disadvantages of Feed in Tariff Schemes as it will introduce a Market Based Element into the Tariffs.However this project is still at a preliminary stage and will need a lot of fine tuning.Note similar scheme have been implemented in China and India as well.The Chinese 280 MW of Projects have seen cuthroat competition with loss making bids by State Owned Utilities.It remains to be seen whether California can make a success of this RAM Program where China has failed.Even India has reported a huge response for the JNNSM First Phase of PV Projects.The Success of this California program will be crucial as it might serve as a template for future programs by other states and the Federal Government.
September 1, 2010
Wind Energy in the USA has hit an Air Pocket in 2010 with Low Prices for Gas and lack of a Federal Push for Green Energy.The end of 30% Cash Grants for Wind Investments by 2010 end may lead to a worse 2011,if the incentives are not extended by the Congress.Note Wind Energy is the cheapest form of Green Energy with prices of 8-10c/KwH and the second most prevalent form of Renewable Energy after Hydro Power.China has become the largest installer of Wind Energy in 2009 with 13 GW showing a 100% CAGR over the last 2-3 years.
August 25, 2010
Although the global financial crisis has pushed governments to sharply cut aid to the renewable sector, it has had little effect on costs in the solar mirror power sector compared with the photovoltaic (PV) sector, which uses solar panels to generate power.
"We've see some reduction in prices, but nothing like in the PV sector. Costs per megawatt are between 4 and 5 million but they can reach up to six depending on the kind of power storage system you use," Seage said.
Sector analysts put the average cost of CSP per megawatt at about 5 million euros before the global financial crisis, about six times more than for conventional gas-fired power generation.
The high cost of CSP makes it unlikely to be competitive with conventional energy until the next decade, and that also depends on reasonable charges for carbon dioxide emissions.
"We see CSP power becoming competitive between 2020 and 2030, depending on a country's levels of radiation," Seage said.