Competition
November 13, 2010
Solar Energy Future Growth has been vastly underestimated by policy makers and analysts but private companies are recognized the huge potential.India's JNNSM Policy which is meant to jumpstart India's Solar Energy has drawn huge interest from both domestic and foreign companies.The number of Solar Companies in India are growing at a rapid pace attracted by the huge opportunity.While starting troubles like project financing of debt etc are present,the long term growth potential of Solar Energy in India is tremendous.Global Industrial Giants like GE,Siemens have already established or in the process of investing huge sums of money to capitalize on this Green Trend.Now French Giant Areva has joined them.Note Areva is the global leader in nuclear equipment technology and is not known for its prowess in Solar and Wind Energy.However the company is making a play in Solar Thermal Technology where it hopes to use its existing skills and knowledge.Areva had acquired US startup Ausra which had fallen on hard times earlier.However Areva has not won too many Solar Thermal Projects in the recent past.However things may change starting with India
November 13, 2010
Australia has shortlisted 8 projects with 4 Solar PV and 4 Solar Thermal Projects for its Solar Flagship Program which will be decided in 2011.BP Solar with 150 MW and Suntech/Infigen with 195 MW are on the shortlist.The other 2 companies are energy utilities which are proposing to use Cd-Te Panels ( I think from First Solar).Note both of these energy utilities are small and might face problems in fund raising and execution.The firms shortlisted for the Solar Thermal Projects don't inspire much confidence either.The selection procedure and how the subsidy will be disbursed has ran into controversy with accusations of bias and partiality.WA has not gotten any projects while Queensland province has gotten most of the projects.The firms shortlisted have also come under fire as they don't have much experience.Not much information on how the firms were shortlisted but these companies are definitely not the best or cheapest by a big margin.Australia has generally made a mess of promoting renewable energy with New South Wales cutting feed in tariffs sharply after giving an overly generous subsidy.The Solar Flagship Program looks like an expensive mistake in the making if it comes to fruition.
November 13, 2010
Solar PV Technology have made a huge advance in the last 2-3 years leading to a demand explosion with more than 100% growth forecast this year.Crystalline PV Technology as well as Thin Film Technology like CIGs and CdTe have reduced their costs drastically.While Solar PV still requires generous government subsidies for their growth,grid parity has come very close.Solar PV Technology has become economically competitive in parts of Italy where a unique combination of high electricity rates and sunshine have made Solar PV Technology very attractive.Costs are being reduced at more than 10% per year which would make Solar PV competitive in 2-3 years in most parts of the world.However mainstream and reputed forecasters and companies like Boston Consulting Group remain blind and ignorant to this.BCG in a recent report has said that biofuels and Concentrated Solar Thermal (CSP) Technology will become competitive.I have issues with both of these technologies.
November 4, 2010
AUO is investing massively in Solar Energy to build a multi Gigawatt capacity in partnership with US Solar Efficiency Leader Sunpower.Not only is AUO building a huge factory in JV with Sunpower in Malaysia,it has also made plans to set up a 2 GW Solar Crystalline Solar Cell Fab in Taiwan.This will be a 50:50 mix of multi and monocrystalline technology.Note the solar market despite seeing a massive 100% jump in solar demand in 2010 faces a huge supply overhang from a number of new large players.TSMC,Samsung,Hyundai,Saint Gobain,BYD are just some of the heavyweights ramping up their solar expansion plans.AUO faces a tough time in this crowded market which already has Chinese incumbents establishing gigawatt capacities.A new player needs to differentiate himself in the increasingly commodity market that solar modules have become.
October 30, 2010
The US Wind Industry has been facing headwinds since the beginning of 2010 due to a confluence of adverse factors.This has continued till the 3rd quarter of 2010 with AWEA reporting just 395 MW of capacity installation and a 72% fall in wind capacity since the beginning of 2010.This is a drastic fall and the main reason for the Wind Industry falling into a coma is the legislative lethargy of the US Government.Despite lots of noise,no climate change or energy legislation has passed the Congress and Senate leading to the moribund state of the US Wind Industry.Note China and Europe are pressing full throttle on Green Industry Growth with a climate laggard like UK also taking a leadership in the offshore wind industry.China will continue its strong wind growth in 2010 installing around 50% of the overall global capacity.Its Wind Companies like Sinovel,Goldwind and Ming Yang are now trying to penetrate foreign markets while US Wind Turbine makers like Clipper have sold themselves unable to survive independently.
October 29, 2010
3G Technology made a lot of waves in India after the government managed to make a huge sum in auctioning off the airwaves required for using the 3G Technology.India's big telecom providers like Airtel,Reliance,Tata Docomo,Vodafone and others fought tooth and nail for this precious resource.In the end it remains questionable whether the government really gained from the Rs 100,000 crores it got.Critics say that to recuperate this massive expenditure,companies will provide 3G services at very expensive rates making communication in India an overall loser.However it remains to be seen as leading providers Tata Docomo and Airtel start providing 3G services in 2010 itself.Note Docomo is one of the 3-4 Japanese telecom giants which has implemented 3G Technology a few years ago which proved to be a big success.While Japan has had a good 3G experience,other countries did not have it so good.In UK it pretty much turned out to be a cropper.It remains to be seen whether in India it can be a success or not.
October 26, 2010
Malaysia is set to become one of the largest solar panel producing nations overtaking much larger rivals USA and Japan as world class companies start/expand capacities in Malaysia.Every country is trying to promoter Green Industry in the fight for leadership of this new age industry and to create high paying green jobs.Billions of Dollars in Green Stimulus has been doled out by governments but with varying degrees of success.USA has managed to squander most of its Green Subsidies despite possessing a very strong technological base as US Companies shutter US factories to outsource production to Asia and Mexico.European Countries have seen a similar phenomenon as their high costs force domestic companies to shift to Asia for their survival.China and Taiwan are the largest solar cell producers in Asia due to their low costs,good infrastructure and massive government support.Taiwan has also been able to leverage its semiconductor strengths with companies like TSMC and AUO expanding into solar energy.However Malaysia has been a surprise winner as well.It is important to understand the reasons behind Malaysia's success as it has beat countries with much larger solar energy markets like USA and Japan.It also has no massive semiconductor industry like Taiwan which can redeploy its skills.It has only recently introduced a Feed in Tariff Policy to promote Renewable Energy
October 26, 2010
Vestas employs over 8000 people in Denmark which is its home base out of the 22000 employees worldwide.The comppany now plans to fire 3000 workers mostly from Denmark even as it hires workers in places like India and UK.Vestas has to cut a lot of flab as Chinese companies destroy higher priced competition in the Wind Energy Industry.Like the Solar Industry,where European companies like Q-Cells and Solarworld are facing an existential crisis from low cost Chinese competition ,Wind Energy now faces similar dynamics.Like Q-Cells and REC which relocated their manufacturing to Asia,Vestas has to do a similar act.Despite a record order book of 6.5 GW in Q310,Vestas has to fire Danish workers who are more than 10x more expensive than similar Asian workers.In a globalized world,companies don't have the luxury of employing expensive workers in developed countries if similar wokers can be employed elsewhere.Note competition is increasing in Wind Energy with big players like Hyundai,Samsung,Northrop and smaller players entering the industry.
October 24, 2010
Solar Power in India is growing at a rapid clip with the strong government support through the ambitious Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM).Rapidly Falling Costs,Massive Power Deficits,Huge Growing Energy Demand and Peak Oil all make Solar Energy in India one of the biggest energy opportunities in the 21st Century.People are slowly recognizing this large Green Money Making Opportunity with companies like Suntech,Siemens and Trina Solar entering into partnership with local players.Suntech has tied up with independent power producer IPP while Siemens has tied up for solar thermal energy with the Adani Conglomerate.This is just the initial trickle with large foreign companies waiting to flood the Indian market.There have been some initial hiccups in Debt Financing of Solar Energy in India but I expect the long term secular growth story to be unaffected. Solar Power Companies in India can be divided into various categories based on solar equipment manufacturing,independent power producer,renewable arms of large power companies etc.I have already covered the Top 10 Solar Module Production Companies in my Solar Panels in India article.Here is the list once again.
October 24, 2010
WTO Defers Chinese Case to 2011
European Union,Mexico and USA had filed a case with WTO in 2009 over the Chinese monopoly and trade resticitions of rare earth minerals.However WTO has failed to resolve the issue despite a time limit of 6 months.The WTO Panel has defered the WTO case to April 2011 without assigning a reason.WTO is more of a negotiatino forum rather than a body which can punish violators .To expect WTO to make China increase it export quota of rare earth minerals is like living in a fool's paradise.Trade Tensions between China and other world trade powers is already very high.Currency and Global Imbalances are already major issues which threaten to derail the world economic recovery (however faint it maybe).Rare Earth Minerals are proving to be another big thorn in trade relations between China and the West.
October 22, 2010
Solar Frontier is a subsidiary of Showa Shell Sekiyu and is listed on the Japanese Stock Exchange.The Company has big plans for the Solar Energy Market planning to increase its capacity by more than 10 times in 2011 to around 1 Gw in total.All its 3 plants are located in Miyazaki in Japan and uses previous plasma plant of Hitachi.Solar Frontier claims 11.5% efficiency for its CIS modules which are expected to go upto 14% by 2014.The Company is spending around $1 Billion in Capex for building the 1 GW capacity implying roughly $1 capex/watt which is not exactly cheap though not very expensive either.Note Thin Film Competition is hotting up with Saint Gobain-Hyundai,TSMC,Miasole,Oerlikon Solar,Sharp,Nanosolar all making plans for huge capacity expansion in the next couple of years.Solar Frontier has signed some small deals for supplying 1-3 MW in Thailand,Japan and Australia Recently.However the cost structure of the company is not known till now just like Sharp.While Solar Frontier looks good on the capacity and partnerships front,it has still to prove itself on costs to really push the Chinese Solar Companies which are dominating the Solar Scene right now with their low cost polysilicon panel production.Note 60% of the Solar Panel Production in Q210 was estimated to be done by Chinese based manufacturers.
October 22, 2010
The JV with the Adani Group is a win-win for both companies.Adani Group is setting up 16000 MW of Thermal Based Plants in India over the next few years and has also planned a 100 MW Solar Plant in Gujarat.It has started a company Adani Renewable Energy to take forward its Green Energy initiatives.The tie-up with Siemens will allow it to access cutting edge Green Technology while Siemens will get a huge customer for its Energy Equipment.Renewable Energy in India is a huge growth opportunity considering that India will have to increase its Renewable Energy by almost 45 GW over the next 10 years if it has to meet 15% of its Electricity Requirements from Green Sources as mandated by the CERC.
October 22, 2010
South Korea has said that it would reduce its dependence on China for rare earth minerals.The Country has reduced imports of Rare Earth Minerals from 7398 tons in 2005 to 2655 tons in 2009.Note most of the reduction came after South Korean Chaebols Samsung and LG shifted their production from CRTs to LCD and Plasma Display Panels.The country now imports 65% of its REE requirements from China and most of the rest from Japan.The country plans to increase cooperation with traditional ally USA and Japan to meet future demand for these commodities.However I have my doubt whether South Korea can reduce its dependence.South Korea has embarked on a major Green Stimulus which is the biggest as a percentage amongst Developed Countries.This is going to mean increased demand for rare earth minerals which are essential for Magnets in Wind Turbines and Batteries and Catalytic Converters for Electric Vehicles.Japan is already planning huge investments into developing alternate supply sources,perhaps South Korea needs to show that urgency as well
October 20, 2010
Rare Earth Metals which are sold as oxides have seen an exponential price rise in recent months with the corresponding rise in stock prices of rare earth stocks like Lynas,Molycorp,Avalon,Jiangxi Copper,Chinalco,Inner Mongolia Bao-Tao etc.While China has now said that it will increase production and exports of rare earth minerals next year,the confusing signals are sure to keep the prices of the rare earth minerals high.Note the reserves and production of rare earth minerals are finite and their uses growing ,the prices of rare earth minerals are bound to increase.While the last 2 months increase has been due to a combination of geopolitical factors,quantitative easing and speculation,it looks in the years ahead rare earth price should keep increasing.Note other supply sources are being developed in Russia,Vietnam,Kazakhstan,Australia,Africa and Canada.So there will be a lots of ups and downs,however the secular growth story of rare earth prices is intact.
October 18, 2010
India is one of the largest consumers of Gold in the world with a strong cultural and religious affinity for this "barbaric relic".Giving of gold jewellery during marriage is sort of compulsory and is even bought as an investment.The high prices of gold has failed to dampen the enthusiasm for gold amongst India's increasingly wealthy classes.While Silver is also bought during some auspicious days such as "Dhanteras",Gold rules the roost as far as precious metals are concerned.Traditionally Gold has been bought from jewellers in the form of jewellery by Indians,however sophistication of the Indian Financial Industry has increased the gold buying options for Indian investors.Here is examining some of the pros and cons of different investment options .
Summary
The best way to buy gold in India is through Gold BeEs ETF for low expenses and liquidity.However if you want to buy physical gold then your trusted family jeweler may the best choice as Banks and Reputed Retailers of Gold charge an exorbitant 8-10% transaction cost one way on gold.Can't understand why the Banks have to fleece the customers in case of selling Gold.But knowing Indian Banks who love Regulation in fear of competition amongst each other it does not come as a big surprise.
October 18, 2010
Hitachi has been running large losses at its Lithium Batter Division due the the severe global competition in the international Lithium Battery Market.With huge growth expected in the Green Automobile Industry in the future,everyone is trying to establish a strong foothold in this emerging segment.Hitachi is one of the lesser known names in the Battery Industry and the company does not expect profits in the next 3 years.However the company's fortunes in the Green Industry might change as it has teamed up with Automobile Parts Giant Johnson Controls.JCI is a multi billion US company with leadership position in the Energy Efficiency,Lead Batteries and Automobile Parts.The company has shown increasing profits and revenues in all of its division in the last quarter.It would suit both companies to design,develop and market batteries for the Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Segments.
October 18, 2010
Wind Energy in India is the biggest Green Industry currently with around 1 GW of Wind Power Capacity being installed in a year on average.The Growth in Wind Industry has been driven by states like Tamil Nadu who have heavily subsidized and promted Wind Energy.India at around 10 GW of Wind Capacity is the world's 5th largest Wind Energy Producer.However India remains far behind China in terms of Wind Energy Growth .Last Year China installed nearly 13 GW of Wind Energy which is more than India's total installed capacity of Wind Energy.With a target of around 230 GW by 2020,China is on track to install 20 GW of WInd Capacity a Year in the next 10 years which would make India a Pygmy.Also two of the largest Wind Turbine Producers Sinovel and Goldwind are from China.India despite producing a world class company Suzlon in the early states of Wind Industry Development is struggling.Suzlon has fallen on very hard times running big losses while other Wind Companies are of hardly any decent size.
October 12, 2010
GE is now looking to dethrone the No.1 Solar Energy Producer First Solar using its all round strengths.GE had invested in a Cadmium Tellurium Startup Prime Solar which is ramping up production.Note Cd-Te is the same technology which is used by First Solar.GE has said that it has managed to attain 15% efficiency on commercial glass.Don't know how much of it is true since First Solar only manages around 12% efficiency despite around 10 years of dedicated R&D.However if GE can even manage to get near to that level then it would surely give First Solar a run for its money.GE has also tied up with Japanese Solar Frontier to market its CIGs based modules.Note Solar Frontier or Showa Shell is building a massive 900 MW plant in Japan.This would make Frontier Solar one of the biggest Solar Players in the world.GE is offering an integrated solution comprising of modules,inverters,services and other BOS equipment to get a leg up on competition.
October 12, 2010
With most of the low hanging fruit of polysilicon costs already gone,the industry has to focus on efficiency to cut down on costs.Selective emitters,microinverters,DC-DC optimization and other technologies are already finding takers.A Number of microinverter companies like Tigo,Enphase Energy etc are tying up with global heavyweights like Suntech and Sunpower to increase their penetration and cut costs.National Semiconductor has also tied up with Suntech to integrate its products with Suntech Modules to improve efficiency and reliability.The Balance of Systems costs for Solar Panels and their Performance are not usually paid a lot of attention.But with every cent now making a big difference,these technology could make or break a company in this commoditizing industry.While the value addition and costs of these new products are still subject to market acceptance,its a major change for the industry.This is the next phase in the evolution of the solar energy industry as it looks to additional ways to cut costs and bring solar energy to grid parity.Look for M&A in this space as well since the industry is fragmented with a host of VC backed startups.
October 12, 2010
Rosatom has strong competencies despite the Chernobyl disaster as a black mark in its history.The Company has already constructed reactors in China,India and Iran during the Soviet Union Days and is constructing 5 reactors in foreign markets.With strong technology expertise and with laxer safety standards at home,it is trying to outflank Areva in its home turf.Note Areva is already facing losses from the Finland Nuclear Project which has proved to be a huge disaster.It additionally faces competition from Toshiba-Westinghouse which is ramping up its efforts to compete with Areva.GE-Hitachi suffers from a technological handicap compared with Toshiba and Areva,however GE cannot be underestimated because of its Global Reach and Industrial Strengths.Rosatom is that last thing that Areva needs in its shrinking home turf of Europe.Germany is facing huge opposition just for extending the life of its nuclear reactors while France has pretty much saturated its Electricity Market with Nuclear Energy.
October 7, 2010
Mazda the Japanese Automobile Producer has decided to double the R&D spending on EcoFriendly Vehicles over the next 5 years.The Company has decided to up the percentage spend on Green Automobile Technology to 40% by 2015 from 20% at present.This implies almost $450 million in annual R&D spend on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles.Mazda has been a latecomer to the new generation Green Automobiles.Like Honda,Mazda trails Toyota and Nissan in the EV and Hybrid Car Technology.
Mazda has already tied up with Toyota to fast track the development of Hybrid Vehicles,the first one which it plans to introduce by 2013.Note Honda and Toyota have already introduced Hybrid Cars and Mazda will face tough competition as it is a latecomer to the Hybrid Party.Other AutoMakers around the world like Hyundai,GM,Ford,Geely,BYD are already well on the way to introducing Green Cars.
October 7, 2010
Northrop Grumman the US Defense Giant and the largest US Shipbuilder as well is entering the Offshore Wind Energy Field.With Cape Cod very near to receiving the final approvals for setting up the first Offshore Wind Farm in the USA,Northrop sees a good opportunity.Shipbuilders around the world have recently entered the growing Green Sector of Offshore Wind.Korean Shipbuilders like Hyundai,Samsung have already set up Wind Turbine plants.Northrop on the other hand will team up with Gamesa to explore the Wind Energy field in the United States.Note Shipbuilding Industry is facing tough times with overcapacity and competition from Asian Players.Its critical for shipbuilders to look for newer greener pastures and Offshore Wind Energy is the best positioned space for them.It requires heavy industrial engineering and offshore operations both of which at shipbuilders excel at.
October 5, 2010
Organized retail industry in India is largely an oligopsonic market. (An oligopsony is a market form in which the number of buyers is small while the number of sellers in theory could be large. It contrasts with an oligopoly, where there are many buyers but just a few sellers. An oligopsony is a form of imperfect competition. One example of an oligopsony in the world economy is cocoa, where three firms (Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland, and Callebaut) buy the vast majority of world cocoa bean production, mostly from small farmers in third-world countries.)
Shopping centres in India have well defined product categories. These including the multiplex, the food court, the hypermarkets, the departmental stores (loosely referred to as anchors) and then the vanilla stores. In each of the anchor product categories, there are virtually 4-5 established players that all the retailers have to go to. This gives rise to an oligopsonic market with the retailers having the relationship power balance tilted in their favour. Also, with shopping centres being capital intensive (with large amount of debts) and the retailers working on negative working capital, the cash flow pressures are that much more on the shopping centre owners than the retailers. It gives retailers much more time to play hardball in their negotiations with the shopping centre owners.
September 30, 2010
Nokia had lost a big chunk of marketshare in 2009 to local competitors like Micromax,Lava,Spice and MNCs like Samsung,LG and others.In 2010,this trend has accelerated with Nokia losing an astounding 18% marketshare in the first 6 months of 2010.The company's markshare has been whittled down to just 36% from 54% earlier with local Indian mobile makers gobbling up a 33% marketshare.In the $6.5 bb annual revenue market for mobiles in India,this implies a loss of $1 billion in 2010 revenues.For Nokia,this is another resounding defeat as its Indian Fortress crumbles.Nokia is getting squeezed both on the high end as well as the low end.Local Indian companies are coming up with better features at lower price points and beating Nokia black and blue.Despite huge R&D,manufacturing strengths and an enviable distribution network,Nokia has lost the pulse of the Indian customer.The smaller Indian companies like Micromax are receiving Private Equity money to expand faster given their huge success.Nokia clearly needs more than a change of CEO,it needs to change the whole culture and DNA of the company like IBM in the 1990s.
September 29, 2010
General Electric being Smart in its Chinese Expansion
General Electric is looking to Invest Heavily in the new Age Green Industry like other Industrial Giants like Siemens,ABB etc.Having a Local Partner is a Huge Advantage since almost the whole of the Chinese Wind Industry is controlled by Chinese SOEs who favor local companies over foreign ones.EU and Japan have protested against discrimination over their domestic firms but not to much avail.GE is trying to circumvent the Discrimination Problem by giving a majority stake of 51% to Harbin Electric Machinery (HEC).However the Going will not be Easy for GE which is a Global Wind Market Leader because Competition is intensifying in the Chinese Market.Ming Yang Wind Power is looking to expand six fold to take advantage of the Growth in Chinese Wind Energy.Other Companies are doing the same.
September 29, 2010
2) Expensive Valuation - Despite Negative Cash Flows for 3 out of the last 5 years,Cyclical Industry and Customer Concentration Risk,the Management wants around 35x P/E Valuation for their company.This is quite amazing as I would not consider the company a Buy at even 20x.However even shadier and crappier issues have managed to listed.Prakash Steelage,Aster Silicates are all examples of investors trying their hand at such Junk.
3) Customer Concentration - The Company is dependent on a few customers like Tata Motors and Indian Railways for most of its revenues.Competition for supplying Wagons to Indian Railways has increased drastically with even State Owned Companies joing the fray.CV is a cyclical industry and margisn in the CV Body Building Business are nothing great.The Company has failed to show consistent margins in the business
Summary
This is one of the more crappier issues to hit the market.Investors should not be even considering subscribing to the issue given the bad management history,cyclical sector and competition.Margins are nothing great.Growth has been inconsistent and the stock is overvalued even at half of its asking price.
September 28, 2010
MingYang is the first Chinese Wind Energy Company to list its shares in the American Stock Exchange.There are a number of Chinese Solar Companies like Renesola,Trina Solar,Suntech etc which are traded in the USA but no Wind Energy Plays.In fact the number of Wind Companies trading on US Exchanges is almost non-existent.Clipper and Broadwind are hardly big players in the global market and provide little direct exposure to Wind Energy for US investors.MingYang is issuing 25 million ADS at a range of $14-16 share diluting around 20% of the company and giving it a market cap of roughly around $1750 million.The proceeds will be used in capacity expansion and R&D mostly.MingYang is the only significant non-state owned Chinese Wind Energy Company with a 2009 marketshare of around 4%.The Company has a very short history installing its first Wind Turbine just 2 years ago and has seen an exponential growth riding on the incredible Wind Industry Growth in China.Here are the advantages and disadvantages of the Company.
September 24, 2010
India's Central Bank RBI had proposed to deregulate the savings rate on Bank Deposits as part of the Financial Reforms.Note Savings Rate is the only regulated interest rate in the Banking Sector.This has led to a huge windfall for Indian Banks.With a savings rate of around 3.5% and lending rates of 12%,Banks manage to reap profits from this huge spread in the rates which is commonly known as the "Net Interest Margin" or NIM.Indian NIMs are very high compared to that of other countries because of this discrepancy.Indian consumers are known to deposit most of their savings in Banks as Stocks and other Assets are considered untrustworthy.Banks with high proportion of their deposits in the form of these savings deposits have much higher profitability.Note RBI has increased the returns on the savings deposits recently by shortening the length of the cumulative returns.
Indian Banks don't want competition in this space as they will lose the supernormal profits that they make because of this regulation.Private Banks are at the forefront of this opposition which is ironical as they should are the first in welcoming deregulation and competition
September 22, 2010
TSMC Cost Targets Would be Incredulous coming from any other Company
TSMC has said that it would look to become amongst the top 5 suppliers in the world in the next 5 years and looks at a Cost per Watt of only 19c/watt in the next 3 years which would be further reduced to 14c/watt.This is much lower than the current costs for the Solar Leader First Solar which is at around 75c/watt.This target if achieved would make solar energy the cheapest form of energy and would definitely make TSMC No.1.Note First Solar is planning a cost target of 52c/watt in the next few years.TSMC is planning to start production in Q211 with 200 MW of production planned for 2012.