Competition
September 21, 2010
Electrosteel Integrated is coming out with an IPO to raise around $50mm to fund its 2.2 million ton plant in Jharkand,India.The company is promoted by its listed parent Electrosteel Castings which has been running for the past 30 years and is leader in the Ductile Pipe Category.This company will have ECL holding of 34% post IPO with the other major shareholders being a bunch of PE firms and Stemcor.The plant construction will require around $1.5 billion capex out of which around 40% has been already been spent.Debt will be around $1.1 billion mostly at 12.25% interest rate.
Summary
The company has pluses as well as risks,however the plant should start operating in Oct 2010.While the investment is risky,the valuation being offered is cheap with good promoters.For people looking at lesser risk,ECL the parent company also makes a lot of sense.It is trading at 8x trailing P/E and around 1 P/Bx which is again cheap.It has a 34% share in the new company so will gain from any upside as well.Its investment in the company is Rs 700 crore with a total market cap of around Rs 1600 crore.Not expensive and a safer way to invest in
September 20, 2010
Bad Part
1) Bad Sector - It is marked by very high working capital,low margins,high competition and volatility in raw material prices.While Cantabil has grown well,the sector is hardly to excite someone about.The company's expansion plans will need lead to any dramatic improvement in its business model.
Summary
There is nothing to dislike about the company,however there is nothing to like about it either.Valuation at around 12x is not expensive however the risks of the sector and the smallness of the company does not make it very cheap either.Manufacturing in house,reduction of working capital might make it attractive later on. However I would give it a pass as there are better opportunities around.
September 18, 2010
Nokia's Stock Price has fallen by more than 50% in the last 2 years and have stayed at the same level despite a huge 40% Global Mobile Marketshare.Despite a Tech Resurgence,Nokia's stock has wallowed in its all time lows.Repeated Restructuring,Losing out to competition in India,Failure to keep up with Apple has made this a "pity stock".However its recent deal with Intel to launch Meego,a new CEO and N8 had given hopes to Nokia Faithful.However teething problems like the exit of the Smartphone Chief and delays in N8 has made those hopes recede.Also Nokia has unresolved Software issues as it tries to balance between 2 competing platforms of Symbian and Meego.It has decide on 1 platform and put all its effort there.Customers are cagey about buying phones with Operating Systems without a large Developer Support and Apps.The Ovi Store with just 13k apps is no match to iPhone's 250k apps.Its time for Nokia to put renewed efforts in order to resurrect its declining fortunes.
September 16, 2010
The Competition in the Battery Segment of Energy Storage keeps on increasing with entry of new players.While established players like LG Chemicals,Panasonic are increasing capacity,there has been a raft of new startups and biggies entering this segment.Toshbia,NEC,SK Energy,Sumitomo,Samsung SDI everyone wants a piece of one of the fastest growing segments of the Electric Vehicle Sector.This has already led to a supply glut leading to a decrease in ASPs.A123 Systems has recently opening a huge factory manufacturing Lithium Cells in Michigan with the help of US government grants.With Obama aiming to capture 40% of the EV Market by US companies,more such factories are expected to come online resulting in a further supply demand mismatch.China also wants to create national champions in the Clean Transport Sector and has line up huge subsidies as well.
September 16, 2010
Algae Based Biofuels as a Green Investing Opportunity is still some years away as the technology is still quite nascent.Despite a lot of hoopla and a number of IPO's with synthetic biofuels as business,large scale commercial production and profits are still some time away.However the promise of this technology to revolutionize the Fossil Fuel powered Transportation Sector is Huge.Large Oil and Gas is already positioning itself in a small way to take advantage of this opportunity.Shell has been the biggest investor in Biofuels with a $12 Billion tie up with Brazilian Sugar Giant Cosan.Valero has also smartly invested in a number of biofuel startups despite being one of the strongest opponents of Green Energy.Exxon has only promised huge investments without investing much till date.
September 15, 2010
With Every Country wanting to Use Exports to get out of their Tough Fiscal Situations,it does seem that Currency Manipulation will become a mainstream activity.Gold and Silver are already touching new highs and with countries hell bent on competitively devaluing their currencies,expect the precious metals to go even higher.
September 14, 2010
Global Imbalances back to pre-Lehman Days Global Imbalances are growing deeper by the day as the world returns to its unsustainable pre-Lehman days of Unbalanced Trade.Trade […]
September 14, 2010
20 GW of Capacity is expected to be built by 2010 end in China up from around 10 GW in 2009.Fierce Competition in the Wind Turbine Market has led to increasing distress for smaller players.Sinovel the biggest Wind Turbine maker which sold 3.5 GW in 2009 has been using price as a weapon to drive away competitors.These Companies are now trying to expand internationally.Korean Companies like Samsung,Hyundai are investing heavily in the Wind Sector and are on track to become formidable competitors in a few years.Suzlon's Chinese Dreams looks difficult to implement in reality.
September 10, 2010
Vestas is trading at historical lows with these repeated bad news taking huge chunks from the stock.However like Suzlon,Vestas is more like a Falling Knife than a Fallen Angel.Despite a major new order of 400 MW,Vestas stock has fallen even more.Like Nokia in Mobiles and Sunpower in Solar Energy,the industry has totally changed for these industry leaders.The structural issues with the major incumbent Wind Turbine Makers are too dire for short term order wins to help them
September 9, 2010
China has overtaken the US and EU in Green Industry Leadership.US Utilities like Duke Energy have openly acknowledged Chinese primacy in this regard .Investment in the Renewable Energy Sector in China at $38 billion in 2009 was more than double that in the USA.Companies in the US are outsourcing Green Jobs to Mexico and China due to high costs and lack of Government support.2010 should see this gap widen further with Chinese plans to spend almost $760 Billion in Green Investments in the next decade.The Ernst&Young Ranking of the Most Preferred Green Investment Countries has further bolstered the case of Chinese Leadership.
September 7, 2010
Applied Materials which was the 800 lb Gorilla in the a-Si Thin Film Equipment raking in Billions of Dollars in Orders from established Solar Leaders like Q-Cells and Suntech also found itself in trouble.With its SunFab Division leading Millions of Dollars and fast losing its economic viability,AMAT was forced to conduct Euthanisia.Its customers like SunFilm,Moser Baer,Suntech also have pretty much shut down their factories writing off large investments.However Oerlikon is not giving up like AMAT
August 17, 2010
The stock might offer some short term profits for high risk traders on a dead cat bounce,but it is definitely not a fundamental pick.Unless the company really makes significant progress on the revenue and orders front,it is not a buy in my book.
August 17, 2010
The 10.8c/KwH Tariff will be almost 35% lower than the earlier project awarded in the Ningxia province.For comparison 10.8c/KwH is generally given to Wind Energy which has considerably lesser costs than Solar Energy.Parts of USA and Europe have electricity tariffs of greater than 20c/KwH at present.Such low tariffs may not be useful as they might lead to project delays if not cancellations.
August 12, 2010
The competition has been extremely high for these projects leading to zero to negative returns for investors.This is due to a) low electricity rates on offer b) Aggressive bidding leading to even lower rates.This new phase of projects seems to be repeat of the old program.Giant state utilities can easily bid to win even if they lose money in the process.
August 6, 2010
President Obama has said that USA expects to capture 40% global marketshare of the EV/Battery Industry by 2015.This claim is predicated on the Massive Subsidies that […]
August 3, 2010
South Korean Conglomerate Hanwha subsidiary Hanwha Chemicals has taken a controlling 49.99% stake buying 36 million shares fro m Solarfun at $10.72 (4.6% premium) and the complete shareholding of promoters Good Energies (controls German Q-Cells as well ) and Chairman Mr. Yonghua Lu .Solarfun is the 4th largest Chinese company which has been executing well on a vertical integration strategy.
August 3, 2010
a-Si technology has much lower efficiency in the range of 7-9% compared to the mainstream crystalline solar technology.a-Si cost advantages over the c-Si technology has also disappeared with falling polysilicon costs.This makes a-Si only feasible for utility sized plants as a-Si's larger area requirements makes unsuitable for residental and commercial segments.The IPP JV is a good move as it will provide captive demand for Sharp's a-Si modules.
August 2, 2010
The FMCG industry in India is currently trading mostly in the 25-35x range so the company is pricing itself at 25x which makes sense considering that it is a small company with just 1 product.The success of its new products is still open to question and most of the money will be spent of promoting these products.At 25x,the company is not leaving much on the table for investors considering that its new product ventures are risky considering the strong competition in the Indian FMCG market.Though the stock is much better than the junk being offering in the Indian market,I would still give this IPO a miss as their are better options available in the Indian FMCG sector
July 29, 2010
Suzuki which is a global Tier 2 automaker is the biggest automobile company in India through its Indian subsidiary Maruti.The company which was formed in the […]
July 21, 2010
Applied Materials has finally shut down its SunFab Thin Film division after continuous losses in the last couple of years.The Solar Thin Film Technology has seen […]
July 19, 2010
India’s Telecom market is one of the biggest and fastest growing in the world.With almost 20 million handsets sold in a month,it is one of the […]
July 19, 2010
China has recently come under strong criticism for unfairly treatment foreign companies.While MNCs are looking towards China as a source of growth ,Chinese are only interested in Technology that these companies offer.Rules and regulations are such that foreign companies are forced to tie up and share technology with local partners.This inevitably leads to local partners going on their own and competing with the same companies they got their technology from.China's Wind Energy Industry is a testament of this fact
July 17, 2010
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries , the massive Japanese Conglomerate is looking to overseas market for growing its Wind Energy Division.Mitsubishi like other Japanese companies are looking towards […]
July 17, 2010
The Global Financial Crisis is truly global in its character of inflicting misery and impoverishment amongst workers.Bangladesh and US which are two highly disparate countries in […]
July 14, 2010
Nokia is a company under siege from multiple forces.On the global stage,it is fasting losing brand value,marketshare and profits under competition from Technology Giants Google and […]
July 5, 2010
China increasingly difficult for Foreign Companies to Operate in China is becoming an increasingly difficult place for foreign companies to operate in.GE CEO Jeffrey Immelt voiced […]
July 3, 2010
Toshiba,the leading Japanese Electronics Producer is diversifying into the Green Industry like its counterparts in the rest of the world.Samsung,NEC,Panasonic,LG,GE and Siemens have all been strongly […]
July 2, 2010
Sharp,the Japanese Zaibatsu known more for its Electronics Products is also the world’s No 1 Company in terms Solar Module Revenues.Sharp has been the solar world […]