Competition
May 31, 2011
India and China are largely dependent on Coal for fueling a majority of their energy needs despite the evident disadvantages of coal.China derives almost 80% of its electricity from coal while India uses Coal for 50% of its Energy Needs.Most of the new power plants being built in India have plans to use thermal power which means that the coal demand is going to skyrocket even as these 2 Asian giants are already suffering from coal shortages.India's Coal Production is falling short as the Environment Ministry makes it tough for the coal miners to dig up virgin forest areas even as private Indian power companies keep on building gargantuan thermal power plants of more than 4,000 MW capacity.Most Indian companies are now racing to acquire coal mines abroad joining the Chinese companies.Seeing the massive potential in coal,international resource giants such as Rio Tinto and others are trying to access coal assets as well.
May 31, 2011
Japanese Nuclear Giant Toshiba which is the second largest seller of complex nuclear equipment globally is looking to shift its focus towards Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency.The company is already facing delays in shipping nuclear reactors to customers as the Fukushima Disaster makes governments around the world rethink their nuclear power ambitions.The Nuclear Energy Disadvantages are winning over the Advantages currently in public sentiment.Toshiba which acquired US Westinghouse has a target of selling 39 nuclear reactors which is getting delayed.With advanced nuclear power countries like Germany,Switzerland and Japan killing nuclear energy,the going looks tough for Toshiba.The company was already facing tough competition from the GE-Hitachi and Areva as well as new players from South Korea and China in the nuclear equipment market.
May 31, 2011
Indian equity investing through offshore funds might not be the best idea as these funds have underperformed the benchmarks by putting too much weight on infrastructure and capital goods sector.Note lured by the $500 billion investment target for Indian infrastructure,an Indian infra ETF INXX was also launched at a ludicrous valuation.However the endemic corruption in India with scams related to major infrastructure sectors like Real Estate,Telecom popping up everyday,its not a surprise that the stocks have tanked.Note investing in the Indian stocks markets is hazardous with issues like insider trading,pump and dump schemes quite rampant.The risks of corruption are huge and even top asset managers like Goldman,GMO have become victims of fly by night operators just like a simple retail investor.
May 31, 2011
According to the Financial Express, a top US Thin Film Based module manufacturer is exploring the possibility of setting up a facility in Tamil Nadu with an investment of $500 million (approximately R2,255 crore) in the coming months.Note the sources have not revealed the name of the company but it is evident from the investment amount,solar technology that the company is First Solar.A a top level team from the company is expected to visit sometime early next week to initiate discussions with the state government officials.Note First Solar has been emphasizing the importance of India for its growth aiming to supply 100 MW of solar panels in 2011 itself which would make it a leader in the Indian solar industry.Other top solar panel companies like Suntech and Trina too have been investing heavily in selling their solar panels in India through partnerships with local companies.
May 31, 2011
DuPont Apollo is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DuPont started a 50 MW thin-film photovoltaic module manufacturing facility at Shenzen in 2010. DuPont Apollo is focused on the China domestic market but seems like that they are not getting too much traction in the hyper competitive Chinese market and now trying its hand in the Indian market where solar manufacturing industry is not too competitive.
Indian Solar Energy Market has seen the entry of many foreign companies eager to tap this huge opportunity.This list of foreign solar companies in India keeps growing on a daily basis with both startups like Abound and large companies like First Solar,Suntech making India as an integral part of their global growth strategy.DuPont the global chemicals giant too has entered the solar energy industry in partnership with Wipro EcoEnergy.DuPont Apollo will supply Wipro with its Thin Film Amorphous Silicon Solar Panels which will be used in the grid projects.Note a number of Joint Ventures in Indian solar industry have been recently formed.
May 30, 2011
Coal has become the hottest energy topic in the world’s fastest growing economies India and China which depend on Coal for a majority of their Energy […]
May 29, 2011
India's new anti monopoly watchdog Competition Commission of India (CCI) has belatedly started operations and its first few orders hardly inspire much confidence.Note most of the developed countries like USA and European Union have highly developed and advanced competition regulators which impose hundreds of millions in fines against domestic and international companies who indulge in anti-market practises.The huge fines serve as a great deterrence where powerful corporates try to undermine the market forces through their sheer size.The landmark anti monopoly legal cases against Microsoft,LCD companies have proved to be very effective in punishing super powerful businesses who have shafted consumers through illegal practises.
May 28, 2011
Solar Power in India is going to be one of the biggest opportunities in the 21st century with a number of favorable supply and demand factors converging.The Indian government too has supported Solar Energy in India through the ambitious JNNSM which aims for around 20 GW of Solar Capacity by 2020 (which is too low in my view).A Number of Green Companies both domestic and foreign have already made huge plans to capitalize on this oppurtunity.Here are some of the major happenings in India's solar sector in the last month or so.Juwi which is one of the biggest solar energy developers in Germany ( a market which has become saturated) has joined hands with Lanco Solar ( a subsidiary of one of India's biggest private power companies) to set up a 75 MW Solar Plant in Maharashtra winning a contract from the state power generation company Mahagenco.The contract value is Rs 884 crore which works out to be just under Rs 12 crores/MW or $2.6/watt which is extremely low even with the price of solar panels crashing in the international market.At this price the electricity generated won't be too expensive and Mahagenco has a good deal.On the other hand Juwi and Lanco get bragging rights to being the development team for one of India's biggest solar plants.
May 12, 2011
Offshore Wind Energy is supposed to increase from around 3 GW today to 75 GW by 2020 as countries in Europe,Asia and North America heavily support this industry.Onshore wind energy growth on the other hand is expected to slow down as 38 GW of Wind Capacity were installed in 2010 with Western Markets showing a sharp slowdown.Note every industry sees costs declining with large capacity except the mature industries.For example Wind Energy has seen a 10% decline in costs for every 100% increase in installed capacity.Note offshore wind projects offer even more Wind Energy Advantages than normal Land Based Wind Farms.The only problem facing offshore wind power is high costs as the industry still is on the learning curve.PWC has come up with a survey where most of the participants say that it will take 10-15 years for offshore wind energy to reach grid parity.What this means is that Offshore Wind Energy Companies will continue to depend on government subsidies like higher electricity prices,tax breaks,low interest loans to survive.
May 12, 2011
The Chinese Wind Industry has around 80 wind turbine companies many of which are quite small and don't' have the money and expertise to compete in the international markets.Though the Chinese dominate the top global wind turbine companies list with 7 of the top 15 WTG companies Chinese,many are not competitive.Sinovel which has become the largest wind turbine company has recently canceled order for Electrical Control Systems from American Superconductor citing high inventory.Other Wind Turbine companies are in even more trouble as the industry suffers from huge overcapacity.The Chinese Wind Capacity has grown at 100% CAGR to reach 18 GW in 2010.However this strong growth has led to saturation of the wind market and price wars are being seen in China.Exports to other countries have been difficult as the cost of transportation of Wind Turbines is high.Besides Chinese Wind Companies don't possess strong technology and quality unlike established ones like Vestas,Gamesa,GE and Siemens.Though Dongfang and Shanghai Electric have managed to win some Turbine Orders in India,the export percentage is negligible.Wind Power in India too has reached a stable growth level and a number of wind companes in India are fighting for marketshare as well.
May 10, 2011
JSW Energy has set up JSW Green Energy a 100% subsidiary to enter the renewable energy in India.Not while Wind Power in India is already a huge industry with more than $3 billion in annual investment,Solar Power in India is set to eclipse this soon.JSW Green Energy is looking to set up solar power plants and solar rooftops in the country.For this it has ordered 500 KW of CIGs solar panels from embattled American Thin Film company Energy Conversion Devices.Note ENER is already under huge pressure as it fails to compete with low cost Chinese players.ENER which markets its BIPV Solar Panels under the United Solar brand sells mostly in France and Italy which have higher subsidies for BIPV Panels.Like other American companies ECD has significantly ramped down and moved Green Jobs to Mexico in order to suriveNote CIGs Panels are of lower efficiency than the normal mainstream crystalline solar panels.ENER Solar Panels are mostly used in BIPV and BAPV applications since they are not as cost effective and efficient as normal solar panels.Thin Film in India is rapidly increasing penetration with the Thin Film Leader First Solar targeting 100 MW of Solar Panels in 2010 itself which would make it the biggest solar panel supplier in India.
May 10, 2011
Power Finance Corporation (PFC) will raise ~$1 billion through a follow-on-public offer (FPO) which is the first divestment by the Government for FY12.Note the government of India has set a target to raise $9 billion through divestment of public sector (PSU) companies stocks.PTC India Financial Services another company operating in the same segment offering finance to power generation companies came out with an IPO.Despite advantages of growth,a good business model in India’s booming Energy Sector,the valuation of the company had been kept too high leading to 20-30% losses from the IPO price.However PFC does not have a high valuation trading for around 9-10x P/E which is comparable to the competitors like REC.However the valuation is not very low also keeping in mind the rising interest rate environment which is making life tough for the Indian Banks and financial intermediaries.Power Finance Corporation has substantial advantages of growth,a good business model in India’s booming Electricity Sector where the List of Power Companies are growing exponentially.The valuation of the company also has been kept at a reasonable level at a discount of around 5% from the prevailing stock market price.The growth of the company has been impressive but a rising interest rate environment,competition from other power finance government providers like IFCI,IDFC,REC makes the issue neutral.It is always possible to buy the stock later or buy competitors in the same space like REC.The stock is a good buy for the long term given the fundamentals,good business sector,however current short term macro problems does not make it a great buy currently.
May 10, 2011
Solar Power in India is set to be one of the biggest energy industries in the 21st century due to a unique set of favorable converging factors with declining cost the biggest one.The Indian government has recognized this fact and set a 20 GW of solar energy capacity target by 2022 and Indian states are boosting solar energy too through their own set of subsidies and solar supportive policies as well.However a number of problems have cropped up in the initial phases as solar electricity price is still high at Rs 14-16 unit compared to the retail electricity price of around Rs 4-5/unit.Though solar subsidies by the government should provide support till the prices come down.Major Indian solar companies like Moser Baer,Lanco are predicting that the solar electricity costs will fall by 40% or more in the next 3-5 years as technology improves,scale increases and more of the components like glass,solar inverters are manufactured domestically substituting expensive imports from countries like China and Taiwan.
May 10, 2011
The Smart Meter Industry like the rest of the Smart Grid Industry is seeing an astounding pace of consolidation as big industrial conglomerates like Siemens,ABB,Schneider Electric and others gobble up smaller companies at a rapid pace.Smart Meter Manufacturers which were already not many are growing even smaller as the smaller independent companies are acquired by the larger more established giant MNCs.The Energy Efficiency and the Smart Grid industries will see a rapid growth as the demand grows for reducing global greenhouse emissions,increasing amounts of renewable energy integration into the grid and rising prices of fossil fuels.Unlike solar and wind industry,independent companies in the Smart Grid are not as large as they require relationships with utilities,a bigger portfolio of products and longer history to survive.Bigger companies like Cisco,Honeywell,GE have mentioned the importance of Energy Efficiency and are going all out to achieve dominance.Smart Meter Manufacturers which traditionally had a presence in the water and gas metering area have found a huge growth area in the Electricity Smart Metering industry.With the power grid almost a 100 years old,newer smarter meters are needed as essential pieces of infrastructure to implement a smart grid.Here is a list of the major smart meter manufacturers.
May 10, 2011
Ontario Canada has a comprehensive solar subsidy policy which mandate that a large percentage of solar components be manufactured in Ontario in order to receive the Feed in Tariffs.This has led to a mini manufacturing boom in the province with a number of companies like Conergy,MEMC,Enphase,Canadian Solar putting up factories to take advantage of the FIT.Japan which is also a large manufacturer of solar panels with major Japanese solar companies like Sharp,Kyocera has taken Canada to the WTO citing improper competitive practises.India which has one of the largest potential in solar energy installation too has promulgated a law that requires domestic content requirements.Solar Modules must be produced in India to gain FIT under the JNNSM.This law is expected to become stricter with solar cells also to be produced in the country in the future.This has drawn howls of protest from American officials who too tried domestic content in their subsidies under the Stimulus Act.
May 8, 2011
India has a massive potential in Solar Energy with at least 20 GW of Solar Power to be installed by 2022 according to the JNNSM Plan.This […]
May 8, 2011
Gujarat has been leading Indian states in the Solar Energy sector signing PPAs to build more than 900 MW of power capacity in the next couple of years even as the federal subsidy JNNSM flounders.Gujarat is one of the leading industrialized states in the country and has been looking to boost renewable energy sources like Tidal Energy,Offshore Wind Energy,Geothermal Energy as well.Wind Energy has also been in the radar of the state government which is looking to realize the 10 GW potential of Wind Energy in the state.After a strong 2009 when 295 MW of Wind Power was installed that slowed down to 100 MW.The main reason was the unavailability of the power grid to connect wind power plants.Note Gujarat possesses one of the best wind sites in the country in the western part of Saurahstra.
May 7, 2011
HAREDA which is the state renewable energy development agency akin to MNRE at the centre will put these solar farms under a fast track approval process.Note Red Tape in India is quite notorious especially for small project developers who lack the connections and resources to get things done.Note Haryana gives seperate incentives on its own for solar energy,solar water heaters and solar lighting as well.Haryana is desperately deficient in renewable energy despite being one of the most industrialized and fastest growing states in the country.Haryana cities like Gurgaon and Faridabad have benefited hugely from being part of India’s National Capital Region (NCR).However Haryana only generates 0.5% of its 4000 MW of Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources.The state has negligible Wind or Biomass Energy.Despite a Department of Renewable Energy being setup to specifically promote the use of Alternative Energy Sources,the state has not had much success.Haryana is richly endowed with Solar Energy Resources with 320 days sunny days.The State has managed to win some allocation from the centre’s JNNSM scheme.It is also promoting the use of solar energy through disseminating solar kits amongst 2000 schools and providing solar lighting in around 500 villages.
May 7, 2011
India's Shipping Industry has constantly declined despite the Indian economy growing by almost 8-10% in the past 5 years .Indian Flag Vessel marketshare has reduced to under 10% in 2010 from 37%.It is because the Shipping Industry suffers from a lack of good companies . The largest company is the state owned SCI which has been tardy in expanding capacity to take advantage.Recently SCI has given orders to increase fleet capacity by more than 50%.Government policies have also been not too favorable despite shipping being a very strategic industry from the point of view of defense.Note in times of war the country's merchant fleet forms one of the most important weapons in the arsenal needed for logistics and transporation of war materials and personnel.
Note Shipping is a cyclical industry and currently the industry is facing rough weather as the global shipping industry is facing a supply glut.However that's no reason for Indian shipping industry to face a trough as its marketshare remains quite low.Unlike other sectors like autos,steel,oil and gas,the shipping industry has failed to compete and as a result has become a minnow in its own backyard.
May 6, 2011
China has been rewriting its renewable energy plan in the wake of the Fukushima Nuclear Energy Disaster in Japan.Note there has been a strong global backlash against nuclear energy around the world and 7 nuclear plants in Germany have been closed all but in name.Other countries like South Korea,Italy,Switzerland are rethinking of what do about their nuclear reactors giving the massive tail risks with nuclear generation.China had a target of only 20 GW of solar by 2020 has decided to raise the target by 150% to 50 GW according to the country's leading energy planning authority NRDC.Note China installed more than 15 GW of Wind Energy in 2010 alone becoming the world’s largest Wind Energy Market by far.Solar Energy strongly lags Wind in China despite China having the biggest solar panel manufacturing industry in the world.Its Golden Sun and other Solar Subsidy programs have been small in absolute terms compared to its huge electricity capacity.
May 3, 2011
Grantham has made a famous call that the rise in commodities is not a cyclical phenomenon but a secular long term one.He says that the rise in commodity prices is different from the past.Note Grantham has done an extensive study of bubbles and is one of the leading minds in the investment community.While every time in the past,the statement "this time is different" has led to a crash,Grantham's call cannot be taken lightly.He says that the rise in population,shortage of resources,the growing consumption power of massive chunks of prosperous citizens in India and China will lead to a continued surge.Note commodity prices have declined secularly in the last century and since 2000 have managed to erase all their losses to form new peaks.Grantham also says there is a possibility of a massive short term decline which will give a historic opportunity to load on commodities.Jim Rogers is the most famous commodity bull and now Grantham has joined him.Note famous hedge fund managers have already made huge bets on gold and are winning currently.Note CIA and German Military are already on the record for calling Peak Oil which would lead to a drastic fall in living conditions worldwide as the global growth fueled by cheap fossil fuels sees an end
May 3, 2011
The Cons of Geothermal Power are winning over the Pros in the last few years due to a number of factors.The main reasons are the long gestation time in building the geothermal energy plants,small developers,financing and regulation problems.Despite geothermal having huge potential these drawbacks have resulted in only 10 GW of geothermal energy being installed worldwide despite almost 30 years of commercial development.Most of the geothermal companies which are small developers have been devastated by the above problems.Canadian companies which are the leaders in consolidating the fragmented industry like Ram Power and Magma Power are facing huge problems.While Ram Power saw its CEO go,Magma is now looking at other renewable energy opportunities.Magma Power has decided to merge with Plutonic Power which is a small hydro and wind company as geothermal energy looks more or less a dead end.
May 3, 2011
Coal M&A is picking up at a feverish pace as the demand and price of coal shoot through the roof.Note Coal is the cheapest fossil fuel and powers most of the world's power plants despite its disadvantages.The abundance and cheapness of coal has managed to hide its deleterious effects.Indian and Chinese companies are gobbling up coal mines and companies globally as they rush to secure raw material for the growing thermal power plant capacity.The Adani Group is one of the leading Indian private power companies setting up gigawatts of new thermal power plant capacity.Mundhra Port the Adani Flagship has been buying up coal plants,ports and building power plants to vertically integrate itself in the whole coal supply chain.It recently bought the Australian Linnc Energy's Gaililee coal project for USD 2.7 billion.It has followed it up by buying Abbot Point Coal Terminal from the Queensland state of Australia for 1.8 billion Australian dollars.
May 3, 2011
India's Central Bank has been steadily raising interest rates in 25 bps increments as inflation has raged at more the double digits for more than a year.However it has not stopped the inflation from coming down as high commodity prices keep the inflation at 9% which is much more than the target of 3-5% inflation rates.With Bernake money printing fueling oil and food prices globally,it looked unlikely that RBI's timid measure would bring the inflation down anytime soon.So this time the Central Bank has thrown the kitchen sink at the problem raising the interest rates by 50 bps to 7.25% which is much more than what the market was expecting.The Central Bank also raised the interest rate on savings rate from 3.25% to 4% which was not expected by anyone.Note the low interest rate on savings bank had been a huge money spinner to top Indian banks which have large deposits of this low interest rate savings deposits.
May 2, 2011
Arch Coal is the 3rd largest Coal Company in the USA. During the year ended December 31, 2009, the Company sold approximately 126.1 million tons of coal and operated 19 active mines at 11 mining complexes located in the United States. On October 1, 2009, the Company acquired Rio Tinto’s Jacobs Ranch mine with 345 million tons of coal reserves and integrated it into the Black Thunder mine.International Coal on the other hand is a small producer with a market cap of $2.2 billion previously which has managed a nearly 50% premium.Market Cap of $2.2 Billion is a producer of coal in Northern and Central Appalachia .As of December 31, 2009, the Company operated a total of 11 surface and 11 underground coal mines located in Kentucky, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia and Illinois.The Company’s mines in Central Appalachia produced 10.1 million tons of coal in 2009, and the mines in Northern Appalachia produced 3.9 million tons of coal in 2009.
May 2, 2011
Solar Panels have grown exponentially in the last few years driven by declining costs and growing energy prices.The advent of the low cost manufacturers of silicon solar panels from China,falling raw material polysilicon costs,subsidies from governements fighting climate change have all contributed to the more than 150% increase in world solar demand in 2010.Solar Panels are not only being used on roofs and giant rooftop ground plants,but also are being integrated in buildings known as BIPV applications.Solar Panels are also available in flexible forms which can be used in backpacks and other innovative ways.Now there is another niche for solar panels that is growing.Note most of these companies are using the Concentrated Photovoltaic Technology (CPV).The traditional CPV suffers from heating problems as high concentration of sun power leads to high temperature.Building the CPV systems on water will help them solve their problems according to these companies.
May 2, 2011
SBI and HDFC Bank which are the 2 of the largest banks in the country have protested against the RBI proposal to free up the interest rate given on savings account in India.Note RBI fixes the rate at which money deposited in saings account earns interest currently for all banks in India.The current rate is 3.5% which is way below the near double digit inflation rate being experienced in India.Most Indians deposit their savings in bank saving and fixed deposit accounts as there is no widespread equity or debt investment culture in the country.This allows banks with a large retail depositer base to earn supernormal profits by paying pathetic interest rates on savings account and lending that money at 12-13%.While the public sector banks have to serve a lot of priority sectors private banks have no such concerns.This leads to high NIM for private banks leading to huge profit growth each year.This has made investing in top banks in India such an attractive proposition.
May 1, 2011
Note Big Oil and Gas has been slowly been retrenching form the solar energy industry despite initial leadership.Shell which was one of the biggest solar players has become almost non-existent while BP has shut down a number of solar factories outsourcing production to China.Other Oil and Gas companies like Exxon,Valero,Chevron and others have concentrated their energies on related green sectors like algae based biofuels rather than on solar and wind energy.So the move by Total comes as a surprise as it acquires one of the top 15 solar panel companies in the world.Sunpower is being acquired at a cheap price considering its world beating solar cell technology and its massive systems business which has gigawatts of solar projects under development.Note Sunpower makes the highest efficiency solar panels on a commercial scale and recently tied up with AUO.It is the 2nd biggest solar plant installer in the US and has a massive presence in the commercial and government sector.Total said it looked at over 200 companies before buying Sunpower.Note M&A has been strong in the Solar Thermal Industry and has now started picking up in the Solar PV Industry as well.With solar company valuations at a historic low,it makes sense for the larger chemical and energy companies to pick up good companies on the cheap.
April 25, 2011
China has recently put increased scrutiny and control over the mining,smelting and export of important minerals like tungsten and rare earth oxides.Note mining in China often takes place illegaly without any regard to environment in quest for a quick buck.Japan which is the largest importer of rare earth oxides from China gets most of its demand met through illegal mining.However China has cracked down on this practise as it regards these minerals like tungsten,iron,rare earth,antimony and molybdenum as important for national goals.China has severely curtailed the exports of rare earth exports leading to a sharp rise in rare earth prices and stocks of rare earth companies.This has sparked concern in developed countries and blocks like EU,Japan and USA which has taken the case to the WTO.
April 25, 2011
Wind Power in India is the 5th biggest wind energy market in the world with more than 2 Gw of wind capacity being installed in the country.However Wind Energy Companies in India are seeing increasing competition from the entry of low cost Chinese Wind Turbine manufacturers Shanghai Electric and Dongfang.Chinese Wind Companies have seen astronomical growth in the last 5 years to occupy 7 of the top 15 global positions in the top wind companies in the world from zero.On the other hand India has only Suzlon in that list. Wind Turbines in India which are not as sophisticated and advanced in the western market with most turbines being of lower than 1 MW capacity.However with increasing focus on improving the LCOE and development of low wind locations,India Turbine producers are concentrating on introducing higher capacity 2.5 MW turbines and advanced technology like "direct drive" wind turbines.