Double Dip

China has reported the first decrease in its forex reserves in a qtr since the 1998 crisis. The Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves which are humongous at over $4 trillion has shown a $100 billion decrease in Nov and Dec 2012 .While the sharp decrease in the Euro may account for some change , there is also anecdotal evidence that the hot money is flowing out of China . Note earlier Hot Money was pouring into China given the potential of yuan appreciation but with the potential of a Chinese Hard Landing ,the opposite may be happening . China has a distorted economy heavily dependent on exports and investment for growth . However changed macro economic conditions make this model unsustainable . How China manages to transition out of this investment export fueled condition is an open question . That they must is in no doubt nor the fact that China's 10% GDP growth days are definitely over.

China faces multiple challenges 1) Slowdown in Europe and USA means that their exports are sputtering and manufacturing has already started contracting 2) Protests in cities and villages grows against rampant corruption and land grabbing by Communist officies.Lack of democracy means violent protests at times. 3) Debt is becoming a huge problem with local government vehicles facing trouble as they can no longer raise money from real estate sales which has fallen by 20-25% 4) Massive industrial overcapacity is being exported outside.This has made the other trading nations put duties and curbs.A big trade war with USA cannot be ruled out.Chinese solar and wind products faced countervailing duties and dumping charges.China has already imposed high duties on US car imports.

China has been called the “savior” of the world’s economy as its massive $586 billion  Government Stimulus and Easy Money policies sustained over 10% GDP growth […]