Electricity
February 14, 2012
Solarcity which is the largest US Solar Installer has got sued by Sunpower for stealing trade secrets. Note Sunpower which was recently bought by French Oil Giant Total is facing tough times. Sunpower which makes the most efficient solar panels in the world is facing tough competition from super cheap Chinese solar panels. In fact according to Total CEO the company would have been already bankrupt with Total support. Beside making solar panels, Sunpower is also one of the biggest solar integrators and developers. The company has been in the business of installing solar panels after it acquired solar system installer Powerlight.
February 14, 2012
The US Import Sanctions on Chinese Solar Panel imports will become a non-event soon as Chinese solar panel producers are easily short circuting the sanctions. They are using a number of strategies to protect themselves from the upcoming duties and anti-dumping measures. This shows that globalization makes the use of specific duties on a nation quite useless and only benefits the lawyers . The reason is that private companies are much more faster and nimble compared to the slow moving bureaucrats .
February 14, 2012
Solar Prices have now reached grid parity in various places in the world without a lot of people realizing it. In countries like Brazil and Italy, Solar Energy Electricity price is already lower than the Retail Price of Electricity. So it is on most islands in the world like i,Caribbean and elsewhere. These islands which are mostly powered by dirty diesel generators are seeing rapid deployments of solar power. In fact Hawaii is already getting saturated with solar . However the Achilles heed of Solar Energy that is the lack of continuous power is starting to bite.
February 13, 2012
However it has now thankfully put its plan on hold of spending another 520 million euros on solar energy. The company has already wrote down $1 billion in solar after the valuations of Ersol and Aleo have crashed from the time it bought it. Note most Western solar companies are going bankrupt as they can't compete with the 80c/watt solar panel prices. Stalwarts Q-Cells are defaulting on the debt payments while according to Total CEO, Sunpower would have been bankrupt if they had not bought it. Even the biggest US Solar Panel Company First Solar has been ravaged by the price war. Bosch has bravely said that it would continue to remain in the solar panel market while it makes more sense for them now to make an exit and concentrate on their core competencies. It can realistically never hope to get into the top 20 solar panel suppliers and stop spending good money after the bad.
February 10, 2012
However Solar Thermal Technology is finding a niche in Hybrid Fossil Fuel Power Plants . The reason that Solar Thermal is gaining traction in Solar Hybrid Plants is
1) They can use the existing Electricity and Transmission Infrastructure of the new Fossil Fuel Plant or the Existing One
2) Solar Thermal Technology in most cases generate Steam which can be used by the Turbines of the Fossil Fuel Plant saving additional costs
February 9, 2012
US Coal Companies are being forced to close coal mines and reduce production because of a massive glut of cheap natural gas and emission standards . Note Coal Disadvantages are much more than that of other fossil fuels making it the dirtiest form of energy. While India and China face massive coal shortages , USA on the other hand faces a glut . Coal has been coming under increasing attact in the West with few new thermal plants being opened and many closed due to tougher pollution standards. Note Clean Coal Technolgies and CCS is being promoted to prolong the use of Coal but they are not getting much traction.
February 8, 2012
California which has the largest number of solar installations in the USA and is the capital of solar energy in North America is seeing a rapid exit of solar panel manufacturers. First it was Solarworld which closed a solar module manufacturing facility. Now Sanyo Solar Panels will stopped being made in the state as well as Panasonic consolidates manufacturing in Asia. Note cheap Chinese solar panels have made western manufacturers exit the solar industry and their have been a number of media grabbing bankruptcies as well. Western solar companies as well as Japanese solar panel makers have been shutting down in droves now .
February 7, 2012
USA has the largest amount of spent nuclear waste in the world and it does not have a single permanent nuclear waste storage site. It is quite shocking that thousands of tons of dangerous nuclear waste is put in temporary locations waiting to start a new disaster in the Fukushima pattern. Note the greatest danger and fallout from the recent nuclear disaster was due to spent nuclear rods . The first site that was being prepared in Yucata mountains is mired in controversy despite millions of dollars being spent.
February 7, 2012
It is not widely known that ,Honda is a manufacturers of CIGs thin film solar panels alongwith the likes of TMSC, Solar Frontier and others. Honda has been in the solar panel manufacturing business of the last 3-4 years though its capacity remains small and its panels not very efficient. Like many conglomerates , Honda too entered the solar industry during the boom times and now would be finding the going hard . Note a number of Japanese solar companies have existed the business like Sumco and others. However Honda which remains a very marginal player in the global solar business is not going away . Instead it is using its solar panels to power its own dealerships and auto plants.
February 7, 2012
Chinese Legal System is mostly a joke with the communist party running the world's most populated country with an iron hand. The courts are mostly for show as dissidence against the Party is not tolerated and human rights are non-existent.Also most of the major companies are run under crony capital rules rather than free markets. Most of the rulings are done which favor the ruling party mandarins with little respect to whatever Communist Party laws are. IP Theft has been a big problem for overseas companies operating in China with Google existing the country sometime ago after it was hacked. With the world's largest Internet companies having to run because of IP theft, smaller companies have no chance.Sinovel is the biggest wind company in the world right now because of Chinese government support and policies. It commands huge influence in the corridors of power as it is unlikely to have become this big without major government and bank support.
February 6, 2012
China which is home to the biggest solar industry in the world and most of the top solar panel manufacturers has decided to lower subsidy in 2012. Note China did not pass a Feed in Tariff Law for a long time as prices of solar energy remained high. But after a massive crash in solar prices and energy in 2011 it passed a FIT law in late 2011 to take advantage. This resulted in a big jump resulting in China becoming one of the top 5 markets in 2011 . Now China is set to become one of the top 3 markets in 2012 if not the biggest . This is due to the fact that other European solar panel markets are rapidly reducing subsidies and China needs to support its solar companies many of which are effectively insolvent like LDK.
February 4, 2012
We would like to incorporate BIPV solar tiles or roofing when we build - so we are trying to find out a this point what products are now available in Australia and what our choices would be and the range of prices each would be in ...just to give us a starting point as we begin to pull all the ideas together ?
We'd really appreciate any information you can send our way that would help us achieving this - the brand/type of BIVP we can use, the best inverter and battery you'd recommend - obviously it will depend on where we are and how much sun our roof will get - but we plan to make it as much as is possible as we'd like to be able create 100% of our power needs or if not at least 80 % . At present as a guide my household uses approx 10.7 khw of power a day - so that will give you an idea of how many solar tiles we'd need perhaps ...if the sun was at its optimum ? We hope to be building on a reasonably sunny block between Ferntree Gully and Belgrave on the high side near bushland ...beginning in a couple of months or so
February 3, 2012
China India Trade has been rising at very high growth rates over the last few years driven by the booming GDP growth in the fastest growing economies of the world. However India like other countries faces the mounting problem of a huge trade deficit with China which is growing all the time. Like Brazil ,USA this has become a major problem . Beside the official reported figures , there is a large clandestine trade takes place outside the normal channels. Massive imports from China go unreported to avoid excise duties and custom taxes. Both countries have corrupt officials and businessmen which facilitate trade without paying of taxes and duties. Unofficial Trade Deficit with China may be double the $27 billion reported in 2011.
January 31, 2012
I receive a lot of inquiries regarding how to enter the solar industry . Note the Solar Business is one of the fastest growing industries in […]
January 30, 2012
Finding accurate Solar insolation data is a difficult problem faced in most countries except Europe and USA. The reason is that there is no history of solar radiation data in most countries as solar power is a relatively new technology. Most of the solar developers rely on data from NASA, DOE and European agencies which focus mostly on their domestic geography. This leads to faulty and inaccurate solar radiation data for other places which are seeing massive solar boom due to falling solar panel prices. India which installed 400 MW of solar power plants in 2011 and should see another 1000 MW in 2012 faces this problems also. There are no devices to record solar insolation in India with data coming from outside.
January 30, 2012
The Solar Products Business is booming not only from the Solar Power Plants but also in consumer products business. Sol not are big conglomerates like Mahindra, GMR , Reliance getting into the lucrative booming solar power in India, but now water purifier companies in India are too getting into the act. India's biggest water purifying company Eureka Forbes which is found in almost every Indian home is going to start selling solar lighting products like torches and lanterns.
January 27, 2012
The Chinese Dominance of the Solar Industry in the last 2 years have seen numerous Western companies go bust . This has accelerated sharply in 2011 with companies like Evergreen Solar,Spectrawatt, Solar Millenium, Solon, Photowatt etc. either gone for good or in various stages of bankruptcy. Other US Solar Panel Manufacturers like First Solar, Sunpower have fired thousands and some are continuing with large losses. European Solar Companies are the worst off given their high cost structure and lack of differentiation. Solland Solar recently killed its solar module line while some like Schott have killed their solar wafer lines.
January 27, 2012
So what are the criterea for staying alive in 2012
a) Government Support in Some Form - Most of the Tier 1 Chinese Solar Companies will fall into this bracket. However given that there are so many you would have to look at the biggest like Suntech, LDK, Yingli for survival in any case. LDK is a BANKRUPT COMPANY ,the only reason it continue to produce a solar panel is because of the Chinese government support
b) Low Cost - Though seems like an obvious idea, there are still companies existing which have high costs like Q-Cells, REC. You just can't invest in them given that even low cost is a necessary though not sufficient condition to survive
c) Branding - Very necessary to get financing for solar projects as without a brand you are not bankable and will have to sell at a 10% discount in a market which is already selling at below cost
January 26, 2012
Quick quiz. What is common to Suzlon, Moser Baer, Indo Solar, Websol Energy systems and Orient Green Power? All these stocks had successful runs on the stock market and hyped as the next game changers in wind energy, semi conductors, solar power and hydel/geo thermal power. Valuations were more on growth stories than through an hard nosed DCF spreadsheet. But now, they trade at record lows(like other stocks but what is different is the pressing fundamental concerns in each case). Is this a bubble finally bursting, or are investors panicking?
January 19, 2012
Solar Jobs have been cut in the tens of thousands this year by a number of European Solar Companies including marquee names such as REC, Q-Cells, Solarworld ,SMA Solar besides many of the smaller names. Some of the solar companies like Solon have completely shut down. 5000 solar companies have downed shutters in 2011 according to German association BSW. This is despite global solar demand in 2011 increasing by around 30-40% compared to 2010. The reason is that massive overcapacity has been created in China and other parts of Asia. Backed by cheap loans and massive subsidies, around 50 GW of solar panel capacity has been created . This has led to a crashing of solar panel prices by 60% which has decimated the higher cost companies in Europe.
January 19, 2012
There is urgent need to reduce the solar capacity addition in Germany because
a) It is requiring almost half of the $21 billion renewable energy subsidies in 2011 while generating 3% of the total power
b) Too much solar power while put pressure on the power grid as at the peak afternoon hours solar can generate almost 10% of Germany's power requirement which means shutting down other sources
c) German Solar Panel producers have stopped benefiting from German domestic growth. Most solar companies in Germany have been decimated by Chinese competition and around 20000 solar jobs and 5000 companies have shut down.
January 18, 2012
Solar Insolvency Protection is a new financial product that is going to be introduced by Munich Re the giant German reinsurer. Note Munich Re has been at the forefront of introducing insurance products for solar energy. It was one of the first companies to provide an insurance against the 25 year solar warranty which is generally given by solar companies for their solar modules.It has introduced it for LDK Solar Panels before moving onto other companies as well.
January 18, 2012
First Solar the Big Daddy of Thin FIlm Solar Panels too is under pressure and if not for the DOE funded solar farms in California would have been facing a huge global marketshare loss. There are only a few thin film companies that can hope to compete . Those that can have big parents with massive balance sheets like Solar Frontier backed by Showa and Shell, Sharp ,TSMC and others . VC and PE backed startups have a snowball chance in hell of surviving because they need to get their costs to 50c/watt an impossibility even for First Solar leave alone poor startups.
January 16, 2012
Germany has seen the biggest increase in solar installations in the history of solar energy with 3 GW in the month of December 2011 alone. For perspective this is almost equal to the installed capacity of the Chinese solar energy which has almost 6-7 times as much electricity generating capacity . The returns are still high in 2012 with existing FIT , so the German government may have to plan additional cuts with plans of
a) cut of 2% FIT every month in 2012 to slow down the installations and bring down the solar system IRR
b) a cap on feed in tariffs to solar systems of 3 kilowatts only .This will prevent larger solar installations and building of large solar farms
January 16, 2012
China add the most electricity capacity annually in the world at around 100 GW and its total electricity generation capacity is second only to the USA which it will surpass in the next few years. China is highly dependent on thermal power for its energy needs which is becoming scarce and expensive by the day. Not to speak of the big disadvantages of coal as a fuel which causes thousands of deaths each year. Solar Energy has now reached grid parity in many parts of the world thanks to the low cost cheap solar panels being made by Chinese solar panel producers. With many countries now thinking of putting an anti dumping duty on Chiense solar modules, the government is looking to boost domestic demand . Chinese solar panel Tier 1 players like LDK, Suntech, Trina and Yingli besides some others are the biggest beneficiaries of this new solar policy from China.
January 16, 2012
SMA Solar ,the biggest German Solar Energy company is now losing marketshare to the new solar inverter manufacturers in USA and China. Note SMA Solar held a dominating 40% solar inverter global marketshare in 2010 compared to the solar panel manufacturers none of which has managed more than a 10% marketshare . SMA Solar however is now feeling the heat of the competition as solar energy prices continue to go down steadily. The pressure on the solar inverter companies has been increasing as solar inverter prices as a percentage of the total solar system cost has risen from 5% to almost 10% now as solar panel prices have come down much more rapidly.
January 14, 2012
How Chinese Module Makers will use the Taiwanese Cell Producers to Circumvent US Anti-Dumping Policy
The USA and China are locked in a bitter tiff over solar panel imports from China. Note Solarworld filed a petition with the ITC which in all probability will put an anti-dumping duty on Chinese solar modules. Other countries whose solar panel producers have been swamped by the super cheap Solar Panel imports too are thinking of special custom duties. However the big Tier 1 Chinese solar panel makers are not sitting idle . They have already come out with strategies to circumvent the US Solar Panel Duties if they are imposed .
January 12, 2012
The Indian government is going to set targets for large power users so that their energy usage is capped. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) is going to supervise this program in which Energy Saving Certificates will be awarded . This certificates can be traded on the energy exchanges providing an incentive for large energy users to improve energy efficiency . Note Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) are already trading successfully on IEX since the last year . REC have promoted the usage of Renewable Energy by providing a market linked mechanism to find prices for green energy in India.