Investment
January 6, 2012
LDK Solar is one of the most insolvent companies in the world right now with billions of dollars in debt,a battered balance sheet,continuing losses and dodgy accounting.However LDK has acquired a German company Sunways and continues to build new solar power plants as the Chinese state owned banks continue to fund it with cheap money without any consideration about losing their investments.LDK has become the poster boy of the Solarworld complaint against Chinese solar panel producers as it continues to run and thrive despite being insolvent.The Chinese government is hurting itself and its other solar companies like Trina,Yingle which are more competitive by continuing to support and increase the global glut of cheap solar panels.These solar panels are being clearly sold at below cost as most of the companies would be bankrupt without these absurd loans which make no free market sense
January 6, 2012
While the larger stock brokers have seen reduced profits,the smaller ones have had to shut down or sell.This trend has been exacerbated last year with the rise of computer controlled algorithmic trading.Most of these small brokers which used arbitraging strategy to generate profits have seen their main business evaporate.Retail investors in India have also avoided the stock market which has become a corruption landmine.With even top institutions like GMO,Goldman becoming victims of frauds,individual investors have no chance.Also market operators have made the Indian stock market a pump and dump heaven even as SEBI takes a long time to crack down on the abuses.
January 5, 2012
Chinese Wind Turbine Companies have unleashed a global price war in which Western producers are unable to compete.While Solar Panel producers in the West are dying like flies,Western WTG Makers too face survival questions.Vestas which is the world's biggest turbine company in terms of installations announced another revenue shortfall for the nth time in the last couple of years.The company has already restructed ,reduce workforce etc etc.However the price competition from the Asian companies is too severe and too sustained for Vestas to surive too long.Like First Solar,Vestas seems a likely candidate for takeover by one of the big industrial conglomerates.It has become too tough for a renewable energy company in the West to survive on their own.
January 5, 2012
Biomass Plants in India are shutting down as feedstock costs have increased rapidly while government regulated electricity tariffs have yet to increase.60% of India's Biomass Plants have closed down as they are longer profitable.Note India has a massive growth target for biomass electricity capacity up from 1 GW at present (2 GW if you count cogeneration).A number of agricultural companies have set up a number of plants besides dedicated green utilities.However inflation in India has affected the operation of plants specially those who don't have inhouse feedstock supply.
January 5, 2012
Pakistan is a energy deficit country like most other South Asian countries with inadequate investment in the electricity sector and the distribution infrastructure.The cause of the energy crisis in the country is due to massive corruption and misgovernance , a theme which will be familiar to citizens of India as well.Pakistan has been looking at investments from the Chinese power companies in the hydro and wind sectors to boost electricity generation.However these investments take time and some may never come to fruition.However Pakistanis are now turning towards cheap Chinese solar panels to beat the high electricity tariffs and dependence on expensive diesel generators and UPS systems.
January 4, 2012
South Korean Conglomerates LG,Samsung,Hyundai and Hanwha have made massive investments in solar energy production in the last couple of years.Encoraged by the Korean government to become a force in the Green Energy area in the future,Korean giant chaebols have invested in almost all areas of cleantech like Electric Vehicles,Wind Energy,Solar Energy,Energy Storage etc.While Western companies fall like flies in the face of the Chinese onslaught of super low pricing,Koreans are holding their own and want to take fight into the Chinese camp.
January 4, 2012
Adani Power,which is a leading Indian electricity company and part of the Adani Group is set to invest big money in the solar power in India.The company plans to set up 140 MW of energy capacity according to news reports with an investment of $600 million.Given the current costs of solar equipment and solar panels ,the price tag looks high at almost $3.5 million/MW when the current prices are more like $2 million/MW for large power plants in low cost locations like India.
January 4, 2012
JNNSM Phase 2 recieved almsot 8 times the bids with 2500 MW worth of bids out of which around 350 MW was selected for providing Feed in Tarifffs with the average tariff of Rs 8.77 or 17.5c/Kwh .Note India's execution record has not been great with only 400 MW solar capacity reached in 2011 against a target of more than 1000 MW.However weaker and unknown players have gone out of this business and the winners this time look more likely to construct these solar power plants.No doubt a massive glut of solar panels in the world with prices as low as 80-90c/watt helping .Compare that to prices of solar panels which were more than $2/watt last time.
January 4, 2012
This new plan has following features
1) Reduce the Power Purchasing Agreement Tenure to 5 years from 25 years.This would make it easy to change the prices of power purchased to reflect the changed realities
2) Some sort of fuel cost indexation for electricity tariffs .The reason is that prices of imported coal has risen dramatically which has made the large UMPP get stuck because the revenues don't meet the costs.
This plan will take 6 months to be implemented as the government talks with stakeholders like states which are reluctant to change the power prices decided in the PPA with the earlier UMPP being built by Tata Power and Reliance Power in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh.
January 4, 2012
Smaller Polysilicon producers with small sizes and higher costs are going bust almost everyday.With poly prices falling below $30/kg even bigger producers with inefficient plants like MEMC have been forced to curtain capacity.The smaller poly producers with 2000-3000 tons capacity have virtually no future.With poly expansion still taking place by big producers even in an oversupplied market the small fish are having the capitulate.
January 3, 2012
India faces a Long and Dark Summer in 2012 with its Electricity Industry in Shambles.The list of woes is almost non-ending and the government is the biggest culprit.Locked in a policy paralysis due to its corruption taint,the authorities have failed to move.Indian Electricity Companies too are facing losses and may even default on some project debt.The state distribution companies already have racked up billion of dollar in losses due to total mismanagement of tariffs and power theft.So the whole supply chain is in trouble with the Indian Banks also in trouble as they have lent billions to the power producers.
January 3, 2012
Chinese Solar Panel Producers have become a famous target of an anti dumping petition brought on by Solarworld and other companies.Though US Solar Installers have opposed the move as it will increase the solar panel prices in US,ITC has gone ahead with the investigation.Though the charges of subsidies and efficiency can be debated,the fact remains that US Solar Panel Producers can't compete with Chinese Solar Panles.Massive industrial overcapacity in China has made the prices of products very cheap and made it difficult for Western producers to compete in most areas such as Chemical,Renewable Energy,Textiles etc.The Chinese win because of their low interest rates,cheap labor,free land,massive government support.
January 2, 2012
Note Chinese companies too would have shut down but the state owned Chinese banks are keeping them alive with loans at ridiculous interest rates.LDK which is buying Sunways is almost insolvent as well with its convertibles trading at less than 50c on the dollar in Singapore.It has more than n$3 billion in debt compared to its market cap of around $600 million.It faces massive losses in the coming qtrs and can't serve the interest payments much less expand.The strong support of the Chinese government for its green companies is keeping them alive.Chinese solar panels have become super cheap due to companies selling at below cost and massive scale.Note all the cheap solar panel brands in the world are Chinese with the exception of First Solar and some Asians.
LDK has managed to spend 22 million Euros despite burning hundred of millions of dollars in cash because it has got the Chinese government trillions backing it.So while Western companies burn and crash,the big crony Chinese companies can expand and acquire.
Most of the German solar manufacturing industry is finished and it is unlikely that except a couple of them like SM Solar or Wacker will live to see 2013.Q-Cells too should go bankrupt or get consolidated .Note despite European companies shifting factories to Asia ,they just can't compete.Some of the smaller module makers with 20 MW plants have seen huge losses with the equipment not selling for 10 cents on the dollar
January 2, 2012
Gujarat solar energy has been massively promoted by the state government led by Modi which has announced numerous incentives and subsidies.The state has an ambition of becoming the Germany of solar energy in India with more than 1 GW of capacity in the next 2-3 years,but the solar energy developers has missed the deadline.29 solar companies in India now want an extension which add up to 450 MW of capacity.The 300 MW of capacity target has not even been half covered with only 140 MW installed.However the problem is that on Jan 29 2012 new feed in tariffs will be announced which will be lower.This will benefit the older developers if they get the older higher tariffs with much lower equipment prices.The State has already implemented a clear and forward looking Renewable Energy Policy with emphasis on Solar Energy.It has signed PPAs with a number of solar project developers under its State Solar Subsidy Scheme.While other states are looking mainly towards the federal subsidy scheme JNNSM to push Solar Energy Generation,Gujarat is looking to push Solar Energy on its own.Gujarat now has reportedly acquired 3000 acres at Charnaka village in Patan District which it will give to solar project developers to install solar panels.
January 2, 2012
Ladakh,one of the most beautiful hilly regions lying near the Chinese border has one of the highest potentials in generating solar power in India.Note under JNNSM,India is targeting more than 20 GW in the next 10 years and already large solar farms are coming in the desert areas of Rajasthan and Gujarat.However,Indian policy has mostly neglected the less inhabited region of Ladakh.Most of the policy initiatives have been low key in nature and mostly to provide the region with off grid solar power,solar cookers and solar lights.What has been missed is to build massive solar panel farms and connecting them with a transmission line to the power hungry states of the North.Just like Himachal Pradesh has become a masssive hydro power exporting state,Ladakh can do the same trick with solar power.
Solar Panel prices have fallen by 50% in 2011 and now solar energy can be profitably be generate at Rs 7/kwh.While this is more expensive than coal at Rs 4/kwh,the thing to be remembered is that this power value is constant for 25 years and it has no coal disadvantages which kills thousands each year.Also it increases Indias 'energy security and reduce imports of expensive coal.It also will provide more employment and generate economic value internally beside supporting the Indian construction and EPC companies.
December 7, 2011
Investing Money in India right now is a very confusing matter given the large number of choices and the lack of attractiveness of different assets due to different reasons.There are hundreds of voices seemingly intelligent but who are selling their own books.If you turn on the finance new channels they will keep saying buy stocks for the long term as if a normal investor can make money by buying stocks for the short term.Gold proponents will say that it has been a great investment over the last several years and with the US,European systemic shocks it will remain so.However the rapid uptrend in gold prices has made it a somewhat risky investment.Investing in Gold is also not easy given the wide array of choices like Gold ETFs,physical or futures.So lets see each asset class with its pros and cons
November 4, 2011
The Bees lineup of ETFs was started by Benchmark Asset Management Company which was a unique Indian AMC in the sense that it focused on ETFs at a time when the major Indian AMCs did not care a hoot.However ETFs in India are starting to catch on rapidly as Indian mutual funds under perform despite their very high expense ratios.Recognizing this trend of growing AUM of ETFs,Goldman Sachs acquired the still small Benchmark.With effect from 14th July 2011, both Benchmark Asset Management Company Private Limited and Benchmark Trustee Company Private Limited became a part of the Goldman Sachs group. Goldman Sachs is a leading global investment banking, securities and investment management firm that provides a wide range of services worldwide to a substantial and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and high-net-worth individuals. It was founded in 1869 & is one of the oldest and largest investment banking firms.
November 1, 2011
The Axis Gold ETF started in 2010 under the NSE Symbol AXISGOLD.The Scheme endeavors to generate returns that are in line with the performance of gold, subject to Tracking Errors. The corpus of the Scheme isinvested in Gold Bullion of fineness - 995 parts per 1,000 (99.5%) or higher. Further, the Scheme may also invest in gold related instruments (including derivatives related to gold) as per SEBI guidelines.
November 1, 2011
HDFC Gold ETF along with Kotak and Gold Bees are one of the best gold etfs to invest in India and provide a sharp contrast to the worst ETFs like SBI and Axis Bank.HDFC Gold ETF has the added advantage of being one of the largest Fund Houses and is a subsidiary of one of the largest private banks with a great distribution strenght and reputation.It is also one of the few mutual fund ocmpanies which is offering a SIP on the Gold ETF unlike many others.Expense Ratio is also one of the lowest in the industry at 1% . All in all HDFC Gold ETF is a good buy if you are thinking of putting money in gold through ETF.
October 27, 2011
SBI GETS is an open ended Gold Exchange Traded Scheme. Even though this is an open-ended scheme, investors need to buy & sell units of the scheme on the stock exchanges where these units are listed for liquidity at the market price, subject to the rules and regulations of the exchange. The Scheme opened on March 30, 2009.The investment objective of the fund is to seek to provide returns that closely correspond to returns provided by price of gold. However, the performance of the scheme may differ from that of the underlying asset due to tracking error. The benchmark is the price of the Gold. Special Products SIP, SWP, STP are not available. No dividend would be declared under the Scheme unlike Reliance Gold ETFThe SBI GETS Expense ratio is 2.5%.This is one of the highest expense ratios in the industry much higher compared to other Gold ETF Fund products like Kotak or Goldman.The reason of this expense ratio is not apparent since passive investment in gold does not require such high expenses.This is a deal killer from SBI Asset Management and I would strongly recommend never to buy SBIGETS unless SBI reduces this expense ratio
October 25, 2011
Kotak Mahindra which is one of the biggest private banks with operations in almost all aspects of Finance like Investing Banking,Wealth Management has launched a good Gold ETF products as well.It is an open-ended gold Exchange Traded Fund, which invests in physical gold and tracks the domestic spot price of gold as closely as possible. Units of the scheme listed on stock exchanges and can be easily traded in demat form. Each unit of the scheme is approximately equal to 1 gram of gold. Units of the schemes are backed by physical gold held by the Custodian - Scotia Macotta. All physical gold held with Scotia Macotta conforms to the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) rules for Good Delivery.
The investment objective of Kotak Gold ETF is to generate returns that are in line with the returns on investment in physical gold, subject to tracking error.
October 23, 2011
I had written about the best way to invest in gold in India looking at the different ways of buying physical gold and gold etfs.There was also the option of investing in gold mutual fund which invest in gold mining companies as well as looking at whether to buy gold from banks or you were better off buying gold from your neighbourhood jeweller.Alll the options of buying gold have their advantages and disadvantages.Gold ETFs have become the fastest growing segment of buying gold in India with most people prefering teh convenience and ease of buying gold the demat way.Note only does it have the security and storage advantages,it is also easily saleable without a huge transaction costs.Its no wonder that most asset management companies in India have launched gold etf products to take advantage of the growing trend of buying gold Etfs in India.SBI and UTI,two of the oldest government owned mutual fund houses in the country too have started gold etfs besides the private companies.Benchmark Gold Bees remains the oldest gold etf in the country and is looking to gain marketshare after Goldman Sachs bougth the company.IDBI has joined the gold etf party becoming the latest AMC to start a gold ETF.There is little to distinguish these Gold ETFs from each other since they don't have any active management and are mostly linked to the price of gold.The best gold etf is the one which has the least tracking error and the lowest expense ratio.I don't have a favorable opinion of the mutual fund etfs in India since they charge very highly and there is lack of variety and liqudity in the Indian ETF market.
October 7, 2011
In the past ten years, cement consumption in India grew by approximately 7.5% per year. The building industry developed very dynamically, driven by the strong growth of population and the quick expansion of infrastructure. In 2005, India was after China the second largest cement consumer with around 135 million tonnes.
August 16, 2011
Sharp is the largest solar company in the world by revenues and has been so for the last few years despite massively increasing competition from Chinese Solar Panel Producers.While other Japanese conglomerates like Sanyo,Mitsubishi and Kyocera have substantially lost solar panel marketshare ,Sharp has managed to retain its leadership position.Though companies like First Solar and Suntech have shipped more solar modules than Sharp,in terms of total dollar sales Sharp is still on top.Sharp which used to make polycrystalline and monocrystalline silicon solar panels has diversified into producing thin film amorphous silicon solar panels.The company has also entered the solar IPP and solar development business in collaboration with Enel Green Power and by acquiring a US Solar Developer Recurrent Energy.However in core solar panel production,Sharp has much higher costs and has lost money consistently.Sharp sells Solar Systems and Solar Inverters as well as Solar Modules.However the challenges in the solar market are considerable with well funded low cost competitors from China and South Korea.Sharp faces the toughest years of its solar history as it fights to survive in this cut throat Solar Market
August 14, 2011
Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) is integrating of photovoltaic modules into the building envelope such as roofs or windows.These solid-state devices are used to replace conventional building materials to generate electricity out of sunlight with no maintenance and help in fighting global warming as the produce no pollution.BIPV products are most useful in construction of new buildings as an ancillary source of electrical power, although existing you can retrofit old buildings with BIPV proudcts as well. The advantage of BIPV over normal standard PV panels is that they integrate into the buildings instead of sticking out leading some people to call it ugly.ALso they help in saving the amount of money spent on building materials and labor that would normally be used to construct the part of the building . These advantages make BIPV one of the fastest growing segments of the photovoltaic industry with some people estimating that the use of BIPV will increase at more than 50% annually over the next few years with more than 1 GW of BIPV modules installed in the last year.
August 1, 2011
BIPV is the acronym for Building Integrated Photovoltaics which means the integration of photovoltaic materials into building structures such as roofs,windows and facades.It not only replaces the building supplies but also generate electricity creating a killer green product.This is one of the fastest growing segment in the solar industry and it has been estimated that almost 6-7% of the solar industry is made of BIPV products.A wide variety of technologies and products are being used in creating BIPV products.Though a large number of big solar panel manufactures like Suntech,Yingli,Canadian Solar have come out with BIPV Panels and Products,the segment has not become as big mainly because of higher costs vis a vis the standard crystalline solar systems.There are also specialized BIPV suppliers such as Ascent Solar and Konarka whose products are more suited to the BIPV Industry than the normal module industry.Some of these suppliers have no option as their technology is no longer competitive with the Chinese solar panel producers.Solyndra had a niche product which could be used in rooftops with ease of installation and low weight.However the high costs drove it to bankruptcy.The next leg up to the BIPV industry should come up with more BIPV products from the Major Solar Companies and as cost of solar silicon decline further with scale and innovation
July 22, 2011
CEEG or China Electric Equipment Group Corporation is based in Nanjing, China and is a China state owned company.Chinese Solar Panels have captured more than 50% of the global market for crystalline solar panels and the biggest solar panel producers are from China.CEEG is one of the top 15 Chinese solar module manfacturers and sells solar panels under the CEEG Brand.Like its name implies the CEEG Group has a major presnse in the electrical equipment market and 3 of its 4 divisions operate in this segment.The company is also listed on the NASDAQ under the CSUN symbol alongwith a host of other Chinese panel producers like Trina,Yingli,Suntech,Canadian Solar and others.CEEG’s power transformers and PV products have been qualified for CCC, UL and EU certifications.It recently lanuched the Quasar range of high efficiency solar panels.In 2004, CEEG got engaged in the PV industry and established China Sunergy (formerly CEEG Nanjing PV-Tech Co., Ltd).CEEG has 4 solar panel production factories and 600 MW of production capacity.CEEG was originally a solar cell producer and seller before getting into the manufacture of solar panels in 2009 though acquistions of 2 small solar module producers.
July 15, 2011
Phono Solar is a JV between Phono Technologies Switzerland and Sumec Group of China.Phono’s parent company SUMEC Group has been in the PV industry from early 2004. Sumec and Sinomach family of companies claim to have $15 billion in revenues each year.SUMEC Group Corporation (SUMEC), founded in 1978, is a key member of China National Machinery Industry Corporation (SINOMACH).SUMEC’s core business consists of shipbuilding and project contracting of complete equipment and engineering; the R&D, manufacturing and export of machinery and electric products including power tools, garden tools, power machinery
Phono Solar’s three production facilities will produce more than 500MW of PV Modules in 2011.The products are widely used in many fields such as power station, telecom, transportation, lightening, broadcasting, civil defense, marine etc.The company's products are made in China and marketed by the Swiss company under the Phono Solar Brand.The Company also sells micro wind turbines which are used in small residential installations.
July 10, 2011
Goldman Sachs Liquid Exchange Traded Scheme (GS Liquid BeES) is an open ended liquid scheme & was previously known as Liquid Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Liquid BeES). GS Liquid BeES is the first Liquid ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) in the world. It is a unique liquid fund that is listed and traded on the stock exchange just like a share.
The investment objective of GS Liquid BeES is to enhance returns and minimize price risk by investing in a basket of call money, short-term government securities and money market instruments of short maturities while maintaining safety and liquidity. It seeks to provide current income, commensurate with relatively low risk while providing a high level of liquidity, primarily through a portfolio of treasury bills, Government Securities, Call Money, Collateralised Lending & Borrowing Obligation (“CBLO”) /similar instruments, Repos and Reverse Repos, and other Money Market Instruments.
July 10, 2011
Nuclear Power has come under assault in the aftermath of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident with Nuclear becoming a four letter word.However Nuclear Energy cannot be ignored because its nuclear energy uses are unique in some applications and cannot be substituted by any other means.Nuclear Energy is responsible for generating almost 1/6th of the global production of electricity with Developed Countries like Japan,Europe and USA having 20% or more of their electricity being generated by Nuclear Fission.Currently 31 countries in the world have nuclear reactors producing electricity.The total installed nuclear generating capacity in the world is around 375 GW (WNA) with another 170 GW in planning g state and another 170 GW being proposed.Despite the massive opposition that nuclear power has run into,nuclear companies and nuclear power stocks are not going away soon.This is because of the massive installed base and the nuclear plans of emerging countries.For example Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia,UAE are going ahead with their nuclear power plans as are countries like India and Vietnam.