Marketshare
November 25, 2010
Wind Energy Companies are increasingly facing competition from a host of new entrants into the industry.The dominants firms Vestas,Gamesa and Suzlon have seen their stock prices fall steeply due to declining revenues and margins.A number of Giant Industrial Firms have entered the Wind Energy Industry to diversify from the slow growth in their own sectors.Korean Shipbuilders have invested heavily in the Wind Turbine Manufacturing en masse to take advantage of the secular growth of Wind Energy.Chinese companies have risen from virtually nothing 5 years ago to become Top 5 Global Wind Energy Players.Companies like Sinovel,Goldwind,Mingyang Power are now trying to spread their wings outside of China.India's Wind Energy Industry is comparatively small but it has also seen a number of wind power companies setting up facilities with technology licensed from the West.The slowdown in the Western Markets has led to huge problems for dominant Western firms like Gamesa and Vestas.It has led to painful restructuring for Vestas which has fired thousands of workers from its domestic manufacturing base in Denmark.Gamesa has also seen management and ownership turmoil as WTG Orders have evaporated and its competitive position has eroded.GE,Suzlon,Gamesa and Vestas are all investing in the Chinese market which has grown exponentially in recent times and which is expected to form 50% of the Wind Energy Demand till the next few years.
November 23, 2010
India has followed the example of Korea,China,Japan,USA and others in providing a capital subsidy to promote the use of Green Transport in India.Note China and Korea have been very aggressive in providing support and subsidy to the Green Industry.USA has also been providing soft loans and capital grants for manufacturing to Electric Vehicles and Lithium Batteries besides spending millions of dollar in R&D.Obama wants the US to become a leader in Battery Manufacturing with a 40% Global Marketshare while China recently unveiled a plan to create national champions in the Green Car Industry.Japan has also been supportive of Hybrid and Electric Car Technology with Honda and Toyota looking to dominate this emerging Auto Category.
November 23, 2010
Shipping Corporation of India (SCI),the government owned carrier is coming out with a Follow on Public Offering (FPO) of 84,690,730 Equity Shares to divest 18% of its equity which will be equally shared by the company and the government.At the current price the company will raise around Rs 600 crores for the company with another Rs 600 crore going to the government. SCI is India's largest shipping line by tonnage deriving most of its revenues from oil/gas transport.SCI like other shipping companies has faced a very bad 2009 due to the sharp contraction in world trade and dropping in shipping rates.However results have started to improve with the improvement in the world economy and it is returning to its normalized sales and profits.The valuation of the company is not expensive according to normalized profits however note that shipping sector in general does not enjoy high p/e due to the cyclical and capex intensive nature of the business.The pricing of SCI has not been decided as of now,in the secondary market it trades at Rs 156 which is near its 52 week low in anticipation of the share dilution due to the FPO.Here is a list of the pros and cons.
November 18, 2010
Toyota is a Leader in Hybrid Vehicles with its iconic Prius the biggest selling Hybrid Car by Far.Toyota has been cautious about the growing rush into the Electric Vehicle Category.It has tied up with the much hyped up US Startup Tesla to introduce an EV RAV4,however its concentrating its energies on the Hybrid Car Market.Note another Japanese Automajor Honda is putting its bet on the Hybrid Segment of the Green Vehicle Market.The Economics of the Electric Vehicle Market as well as its Carbon Footprint is suspect despite all the media hoopla being created around it.While the Competition has increased substantially around both the EV market and its allied Battery Sector,the profits are far off.Hitachi has forecast losses for the next 2-3 years as China and USA compete to create national champions in the EV sector with Obama aiming for a 40% global marketshare .
November 15, 2010
White-box vendors now sell through market stalls and mom- and-pop retailers in India, Russia, the Middle East and Africa and Latin America, where the operators don’t own the channel, Milanesi said.
November 13, 2010
However Solar Capacity in the Industry has increased rapidly particularly in Taiwan and China.Besides Semiconductor and LCD Heavyweights like AUO and TSMC have made huge investments into Solar Production.Korean Companies are too making a strong entry into the already crowded segment.Despite some capacity build in the wafer and module parts of the supply chain,Taiwan remains largely a cell producer.Compared to the integrated Chinese producers like Trina,Yingli,LDK and others,Taiwanese Solar Makers are vulnerable to sharp price cuts.They depend on European customers who are largely uncompetitive and would face huge pressures with the decline in the German market.Chinese producers have much lower costs due to their vertical integration which currenly most Taiwanese lack except Motech.Taiwanese Cell Capacity is set to increase manifold next year from the current 5 GW.Most of the Tier 2 Cell Producers would be running empty while even Tier 1 players will see a sharp decrease from this year.
November 4, 2010
AUO is investing massively in Solar Energy to build a multi Gigawatt capacity in partnership with US Solar Efficiency Leader Sunpower.Not only is AUO building a huge factory in JV with Sunpower in Malaysia,it has also made plans to set up a 2 GW Solar Crystalline Solar Cell Fab in Taiwan.This will be a 50:50 mix of multi and monocrystalline technology.Note the solar market despite seeing a massive 100% jump in solar demand in 2010 faces a huge supply overhang from a number of new large players.TSMC,Samsung,Hyundai,Saint Gobain,BYD are just some of the heavyweights ramping up their solar expansion plans.AUO faces a tough time in this crowded market which already has Chinese incumbents establishing gigawatt capacities.A new player needs to differentiate himself in the increasingly commodity market that solar modules have become.
October 29, 2010
3G Technology made a lot of waves in India after the government managed to make a huge sum in auctioning off the airwaves required for using the 3G Technology.India's big telecom providers like Airtel,Reliance,Tata Docomo,Vodafone and others fought tooth and nail for this precious resource.In the end it remains questionable whether the government really gained from the Rs 100,000 crores it got.Critics say that to recuperate this massive expenditure,companies will provide 3G services at very expensive rates making communication in India an overall loser.However it remains to be seen as leading providers Tata Docomo and Airtel start providing 3G services in 2010 itself.Note Docomo is one of the 3-4 Japanese telecom giants which has implemented 3G Technology a few years ago which proved to be a big success.While Japan has had a good 3G experience,other countries did not have it so good.In UK it pretty much turned out to be a cropper.It remains to be seen whether in India it can be a success or not.
October 26, 2010
Vestas employs over 8000 people in Denmark which is its home base out of the 22000 employees worldwide.The comppany now plans to fire 3000 workers mostly from Denmark even as it hires workers in places like India and UK.Vestas has to cut a lot of flab as Chinese companies destroy higher priced competition in the Wind Energy Industry.Like the Solar Industry,where European companies like Q-Cells and Solarworld are facing an existential crisis from low cost Chinese competition ,Wind Energy now faces similar dynamics.Like Q-Cells and REC which relocated their manufacturing to Asia,Vestas has to do a similar act.Despite a record order book of 6.5 GW in Q310,Vestas has to fire Danish workers who are more than 10x more expensive than similar Asian workers.In a globalized world,companies don't have the luxury of employing expensive workers in developed countries if similar wokers can be employed elsewhere.Note competition is increasing in Wind Energy with big players like Hyundai,Samsung,Northrop and smaller players entering the industry.
October 24, 2010
Solar Power in India is growing at a rapid clip with the strong government support through the ambitious Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM).Rapidly Falling Costs,Massive Power Deficits,Huge Growing Energy Demand and Peak Oil all make Solar Energy in India one of the biggest energy opportunities in the 21st Century.People are slowly recognizing this large Green Money Making Opportunity with companies like Suntech,Siemens and Trina Solar entering into partnership with local players.Suntech has tied up with independent power producer IPP while Siemens has tied up for solar thermal energy with the Adani Conglomerate.This is just the initial trickle with large foreign companies waiting to flood the Indian market.There have been some initial hiccups in Debt Financing of Solar Energy in India but I expect the long term secular growth story to be unaffected. Solar Power Companies in India can be divided into various categories based on solar equipment manufacturing,independent power producer,renewable arms of large power companies etc.I have already covered the Top 10 Solar Module Production Companies in my Solar Panels in India article.Here is the list once again.
October 22, 2010
Solar Frontier is a subsidiary of Showa Shell Sekiyu and is listed on the Japanese Stock Exchange.The Company has big plans for the Solar Energy Market planning to increase its capacity by more than 10 times in 2011 to around 1 Gw in total.All its 3 plants are located in Miyazaki in Japan and uses previous plasma plant of Hitachi.Solar Frontier claims 11.5% efficiency for its CIS modules which are expected to go upto 14% by 2014.The Company is spending around $1 Billion in Capex for building the 1 GW capacity implying roughly $1 capex/watt which is not exactly cheap though not very expensive either.Note Thin Film Competition is hotting up with Saint Gobain-Hyundai,TSMC,Miasole,Oerlikon Solar,Sharp,Nanosolar all making plans for huge capacity expansion in the next couple of years.Solar Frontier has signed some small deals for supplying 1-3 MW in Thailand,Japan and Australia Recently.However the cost structure of the company is not known till now just like Sharp.While Solar Frontier looks good on the capacity and partnerships front,it has still to prove itself on costs to really push the Chinese Solar Companies which are dominating the Solar Scene right now with their low cost polysilicon panel production.Note 60% of the Solar Panel Production in Q210 was estimated to be done by Chinese based manufacturers.
October 18, 2010
Hitachi has been running large losses at its Lithium Batter Division due the the severe global competition in the international Lithium Battery Market.With huge growth expected in the Green Automobile Industry in the future,everyone is trying to establish a strong foothold in this emerging segment.Hitachi is one of the lesser known names in the Battery Industry and the company does not expect profits in the next 3 years.However the company's fortunes in the Green Industry might change as it has teamed up with Automobile Parts Giant Johnson Controls.JCI is a multi billion US company with leadership position in the Energy Efficiency,Lead Batteries and Automobile Parts.The company has shown increasing profits and revenues in all of its division in the last quarter.It would suit both companies to design,develop and market batteries for the Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Segments.
October 18, 2010
Wind Energy in India is the biggest Green Industry currently with around 1 GW of Wind Power Capacity being installed in a year on average.The Growth in Wind Industry has been driven by states like Tamil Nadu who have heavily subsidized and promted Wind Energy.India at around 10 GW of Wind Capacity is the world's 5th largest Wind Energy Producer.However India remains far behind China in terms of Wind Energy Growth .Last Year China installed nearly 13 GW of Wind Energy which is more than India's total installed capacity of Wind Energy.With a target of around 230 GW by 2020,China is on track to install 20 GW of WInd Capacity a Year in the next 10 years which would make India a Pygmy.Also two of the largest Wind Turbine Producers Sinovel and Goldwind are from China.India despite producing a world class company Suzlon in the early states of Wind Industry Development is struggling.Suzlon has fallen on very hard times running big losses while other Wind Companies are of hardly any decent size.
October 12, 2010
GE is now looking to dethrone the No.1 Solar Energy Producer First Solar using its all round strengths.GE had invested in a Cadmium Tellurium Startup Prime Solar which is ramping up production.Note Cd-Te is the same technology which is used by First Solar.GE has said that it has managed to attain 15% efficiency on commercial glass.Don't know how much of it is true since First Solar only manages around 12% efficiency despite around 10 years of dedicated R&D.However if GE can even manage to get near to that level then it would surely give First Solar a run for its money.GE has also tied up with Japanese Solar Frontier to market its CIGs based modules.Note Solar Frontier or Showa Shell is building a massive 900 MW plant in Japan.This would make Frontier Solar one of the biggest Solar Players in the world.GE is offering an integrated solution comprising of modules,inverters,services and other BOS equipment to get a leg up on competition.
October 12, 2010
With most of the low hanging fruit of polysilicon costs already gone,the industry has to focus on efficiency to cut down on costs.Selective emitters,microinverters,DC-DC optimization and other technologies are already finding takers.A Number of microinverter companies like Tigo,Enphase Energy etc are tying up with global heavyweights like Suntech and Sunpower to increase their penetration and cut costs.National Semiconductor has also tied up with Suntech to integrate its products with Suntech Modules to improve efficiency and reliability.The Balance of Systems costs for Solar Panels and their Performance are not usually paid a lot of attention.But with every cent now making a big difference,these technology could make or break a company in this commoditizing industry.While the value addition and costs of these new products are still subject to market acceptance,its a major change for the industry.This is the next phase in the evolution of the solar energy industry as it looks to additional ways to cut costs and bring solar energy to grid parity.Look for M&A in this space as well since the industry is fragmented with a host of VC backed startups.
October 12, 2010
Rosatom has strong competencies despite the Chernobyl disaster as a black mark in its history.The Company has already constructed reactors in China,India and Iran during the Soviet Union Days and is constructing 5 reactors in foreign markets.With strong technology expertise and with laxer safety standards at home,it is trying to outflank Areva in its home turf.Note Areva is already facing losses from the Finland Nuclear Project which has proved to be a huge disaster.It additionally faces competition from Toshiba-Westinghouse which is ramping up its efforts to compete with Areva.GE-Hitachi suffers from a technological handicap compared with Toshiba and Areva,however GE cannot be underestimated because of its Global Reach and Industrial Strengths.Rosatom is that last thing that Areva needs in its shrinking home turf of Europe.Germany is facing huge opposition just for extending the life of its nuclear reactors while France has pretty much saturated its Electricity Market with Nuclear Energy.
October 5, 2010
Organized retail industry in India is largely an oligopsonic market. (An oligopsony is a market form in which the number of buyers is small while the number of sellers in theory could be large. It contrasts with an oligopoly, where there are many buyers but just a few sellers. An oligopsony is a form of imperfect competition. One example of an oligopsony in the world economy is cocoa, where three firms (Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland, and Callebaut) buy the vast majority of world cocoa bean production, mostly from small farmers in third-world countries.)
Shopping centres in India have well defined product categories. These including the multiplex, the food court, the hypermarkets, the departmental stores (loosely referred to as anchors) and then the vanilla stores. In each of the anchor product categories, there are virtually 4-5 established players that all the retailers have to go to. This gives rise to an oligopsonic market with the retailers having the relationship power balance tilted in their favour. Also, with shopping centres being capital intensive (with large amount of debts) and the retailers working on negative working capital, the cash flow pressures are that much more on the shopping centre owners than the retailers. It gives retailers much more time to play hardball in their negotiations with the shopping centre owners.
September 30, 2010
Nokia had lost a big chunk of marketshare in 2009 to local competitors like Micromax,Lava,Spice and MNCs like Samsung,LG and others.In 2010,this trend has accelerated with Nokia losing an astounding 18% marketshare in the first 6 months of 2010.The company's markshare has been whittled down to just 36% from 54% earlier with local Indian mobile makers gobbling up a 33% marketshare.In the $6.5 bb annual revenue market for mobiles in India,this implies a loss of $1 billion in 2010 revenues.For Nokia,this is another resounding defeat as its Indian Fortress crumbles.Nokia is getting squeezed both on the high end as well as the low end.Local Indian companies are coming up with better features at lower price points and beating Nokia black and blue.Despite huge R&D,manufacturing strengths and an enviable distribution network,Nokia has lost the pulse of the Indian customer.The smaller Indian companies like Micromax are receiving Private Equity money to expand faster given their huge success.Nokia clearly needs more than a change of CEO,it needs to change the whole culture and DNA of the company like IBM in the 1990s.
September 29, 2010
General Electric being Smart in its Chinese Expansion
General Electric is looking to Invest Heavily in the new Age Green Industry like other Industrial Giants like Siemens,ABB etc.Having a Local Partner is a Huge Advantage since almost the whole of the Chinese Wind Industry is controlled by Chinese SOEs who favor local companies over foreign ones.EU and Japan have protested against discrimination over their domestic firms but not to much avail.GE is trying to circumvent the Discrimination Problem by giving a majority stake of 51% to Harbin Electric Machinery (HEC).However the Going will not be Easy for GE which is a Global Wind Market Leader because Competition is intensifying in the Chinese Market.Ming Yang Wind Power is looking to expand six fold to take advantage of the Growth in Chinese Wind Energy.Other Companies are doing the same.
September 28, 2010
MingYang is the first Chinese Wind Energy Company to list its shares in the American Stock Exchange.There are a number of Chinese Solar Companies like Renesola,Trina Solar,Suntech etc which are traded in the USA but no Wind Energy Plays.In fact the number of Wind Companies trading on US Exchanges is almost non-existent.Clipper and Broadwind are hardly big players in the global market and provide little direct exposure to Wind Energy for US investors.MingYang is issuing 25 million ADS at a range of $14-16 share diluting around 20% of the company and giving it a market cap of roughly around $1750 million.The proceeds will be used in capacity expansion and R&D mostly.MingYang is the only significant non-state owned Chinese Wind Energy Company with a 2009 marketshare of around 4%.The Company has a very short history installing its first Wind Turbine just 2 years ago and has seen an exponential growth riding on the incredible Wind Industry Growth in China.Here are the advantages and disadvantages of the Company.
September 24, 2010
India's Central Bank RBI had proposed to deregulate the savings rate on Bank Deposits as part of the Financial Reforms.Note Savings Rate is the only regulated interest rate in the Banking Sector.This has led to a huge windfall for Indian Banks.With a savings rate of around 3.5% and lending rates of 12%,Banks manage to reap profits from this huge spread in the rates which is commonly known as the "Net Interest Margin" or NIM.Indian NIMs are very high compared to that of other countries because of this discrepancy.Indian consumers are known to deposit most of their savings in Banks as Stocks and other Assets are considered untrustworthy.Banks with high proportion of their deposits in the form of these savings deposits have much higher profitability.Note RBI has increased the returns on the savings deposits recently by shortening the length of the cumulative returns.
Indian Banks don't want competition in this space as they will lose the supernormal profits that they make because of this regulation.Private Banks are at the forefront of this opposition which is ironical as they should are the first in welcoming deregulation and competition
September 22, 2010
TSMC Cost Targets Would be Incredulous coming from any other Company
TSMC has said that it would look to become amongst the top 5 suppliers in the world in the next 5 years and looks at a Cost per Watt of only 19c/watt in the next 3 years which would be further reduced to 14c/watt.This is much lower than the current costs for the Solar Leader First Solar which is at around 75c/watt.This target if achieved would make solar energy the cheapest form of energy and would definitely make TSMC No.1.Note First Solar is planning a cost target of 52c/watt in the next few years.TSMC is planning to start production in Q211 with 200 MW of production planned for 2012.
September 18, 2010
Nokia's Stock Price has fallen by more than 50% in the last 2 years and have stayed at the same level despite a huge 40% Global Mobile Marketshare.Despite a Tech Resurgence,Nokia's stock has wallowed in its all time lows.Repeated Restructuring,Losing out to competition in India,Failure to keep up with Apple has made this a "pity stock".However its recent deal with Intel to launch Meego,a new CEO and N8 had given hopes to Nokia Faithful.However teething problems like the exit of the Smartphone Chief and delays in N8 has made those hopes recede.Also Nokia has unresolved Software issues as it tries to balance between 2 competing platforms of Symbian and Meego.It has decide on 1 platform and put all its effort there.Customers are cagey about buying phones with Operating Systems without a large Developer Support and Apps.The Ovi Store with just 13k apps is no match to iPhone's 250k apps.Its time for Nokia to put renewed efforts in order to resurrect its declining fortunes.
September 16, 2010
The Competition in the Battery Segment of Energy Storage keeps on increasing with entry of new players.While established players like LG Chemicals,Panasonic are increasing capacity,there has been a raft of new startups and biggies entering this segment.Toshbia,NEC,SK Energy,Sumitomo,Samsung SDI everyone wants a piece of one of the fastest growing segments of the Electric Vehicle Sector.This has already led to a supply glut leading to a decrease in ASPs.A123 Systems has recently opening a huge factory manufacturing Lithium Cells in Michigan with the help of US government grants.With Obama aiming to capture 40% of the EV Market by US companies,more such factories are expected to come online resulting in a further supply demand mismatch.China also wants to create national champions in the Clean Transport Sector and has line up huge subsidies as well.
September 14, 2010
20 GW of Capacity is expected to be built by 2010 end in China up from around 10 GW in 2009.Fierce Competition in the Wind Turbine Market has led to increasing distress for smaller players.Sinovel the biggest Wind Turbine maker which sold 3.5 GW in 2009 has been using price as a weapon to drive away competitors.These Companies are now trying to expand internationally.Korean Companies like Samsung,Hyundai are investing heavily in the Wind Sector and are on track to become formidable competitors in a few years.Suzlon's Chinese Dreams looks difficult to implement in reality.
September 11, 2010
Siemens is one of the largest conglomerates in the world with a huge Green Division.This German Giant is present in almost all sectors of the upcoming […]
September 10, 2010
Vestas is trading at historical lows with these repeated bad news taking huge chunks from the stock.However like Suzlon,Vestas is more like a Falling Knife than a Fallen Angel.Despite a major new order of 400 MW,Vestas stock has fallen even more.Like Nokia in Mobiles and Sunpower in Solar Energy,the industry has totally changed for these industry leaders.The structural issues with the major incumbent Wind Turbine Makers are too dire for short term order wins to help them