PE

March 10, 2013

Does Dabur Ltd. address the needs of the entire FMCG Spectrum

Dabur At a Glance 1.Turnover of Rs. 5,283 Crore (FY12) 2. 2 major strategic business units (SBU) 3. Consumer Care Business 4. International Business Division (IBD) […]
February 17, 2013

Will Pantaloons be the future of the Indian Retail Market

Pantaloons Pantaloon Retail (India) Limited is a large Indian retailer firm. It is a part of the Future Group and operates in multiple retail formats in both […]
December 27, 2012

Safe Technology Mega Cap Stock For The Patient Value Investor

“Safe” and “Technology” Stock do not go together. Again “Value” and “Technology” do not go together though this category is showing a growing number of companies. […]
December 24, 2012

Why And How To Buy Tata Motors

Introduction Tata Motors (TTM) is the biggest company of India’s biggest business conglomerate – the Tata Group. Tata Motors is also India’s largest automobile company, with […]
November 26, 2012

Why Global PE firms are bullish on Corporate Lending in India

Corporate Lending in India KKR &Co. needs no introduction of its own. Its known to all as the leading private-equity (PE) giant and is famous worldwide […]
August 24, 2012

9 Reasons Why I think that Apple is a Short at Current All Time High of $655

Apple being the most valued company in the world with a current market capitalization of more than $600 billion has tons and tons of research being […]
June 21, 2012

Contrarian Investing in Solar Stocks as Sell Side sees Solar Industry Gloom and Doom, Jeffries sees degrowth in 2013

However I think that with the prices going down by such a lot , demand elasticity is rapidly picking up leading First Solar to unexpectedly start its closed German plants. With most sell side analysts giving up the industry for dead, volumes dying down and a sense of doom existing ,its time to build positions here as the major solar companies like Trina,Yingli continue to grow volumes by 30-50% .
May 31, 2012

6 Reasons why the Time for Buying Solar Stocks has arrived

Solar Stocks have made their investors suicidal with drops of of 80-90% from the top common even amongst the biggest solar companies. A number of solar […]
July 5, 2011

Paint Companies/Manufacturers(Asian,Nerolac,Berger) in India List – Double Digit Secular Growth makes for High Valuation

In early days, painting your home would mean buying paint and putting it on the walls without worrying about anything else but in today's world, Painting would just not mean simply coloring your house. It comes with a long list of added functionality, which makes it even more better. The modern day paints have additional functions like - Being Very durable, Glow finish, Covering hairline cracks, Fighting fungus, Giving a rich sheen, Dirt Resistance, keeps your home u cool, repelling water, water proof, extra tough, glossy finish for metals & many more.
June 30, 2011

Metal Recycling Importance increasing with Green credentials, Peak Everything and Rising Prices (Metallum,CMA)

This has started to make smart money increasingly interested in metal recycles.KKR the leading PE firm has made a $95 million dollar bet acquiring a leading metal recycler CMA. First Reserve followed suit soon afterwards with a 10 time bigger bet buying Metallum.Note e-waste recycling has become a highly profitable business as well both due to increasing government regulation and rising realizations from the useful products like gold,silver,copper extracted after recycling.Recycling is a Green alternative to extracting metal from mining as it uses less money,effort,energy reducing GHG emissions.
May 10, 2011

Power Finance Corporation (PFC) Analysis – Follow-on Public Offering Buy/Sell Recommendation Not Bad but Not Great Either

Power Finance Corporation (PFC) will raise ~$1 billion through a follow-on-public offer (FPO) which is the first divestment by the Government for FY12.Note the government of India has set a target to raise $9 billion through divestment of public sector (PSU) companies stocks.PTC India Financial Services another company operating in the same segment offering finance to power generation companies came out with an IPO.Despite advantages of growth,a good business model in India’s booming Energy Sector,the valuation of the company had been kept too high leading to 20-30% losses from the IPO price.However PFC does not have a high valuation trading for around 9-10x P/E which is comparable to the competitors like REC.However the valuation is not very low also keeping in mind the rising interest rate environment which is making life tough for the Indian Banks and financial intermediaries.Power Finance Corporation has substantial advantages of growth,a good business model in India’s booming Electricity Sector where the List of Power Companies are growing exponentially.The valuation of the company also has been kept at a reasonable level at a discount of around 5% from the prevailing stock market price.The growth of the company has been impressive but a rising interest rate environment,competition from other power finance government providers like IFCI,IDFC,REC makes the issue neutral.It is always possible to buy the stock later or buy competitors in the same space like REC.The stock is a good buy for the long term given the fundamentals,good business sector,however current short term macro problems does not make it a great buy currently.
April 22, 2011

Future Ventures IPO Review and Analysis – Unique Indian Consumption Private Equity/Venture Capital Company with Cheap Valuation is a Good Buy

Future Ventures is a VC/Private Equity Company that has invested in a number of small Indian companies and startups mainly focused on the consumption industry in India.With India growing at around 8-9% in the last few years and expectations of strong future growth driven by consumption,Future Ventures seems a good investment considering the portfolio of companies that it owns (analyzed below).Future Ventures is a part of the Future Group run by Kishore Biyani who started India's most famous retail company Pantaloons.The Company has set a price band of 10-11 rupees a share with a target of raising around Rs. 750crore though the IPO.This would represent around 40% of the equity which would give it a post IPO market capitalization of around $375 million.Note the company had tried to come with an IPO 2 years ago but it was deemed to expensive at that time.
April 14, 2011

Solar Micro Inverter Market – Small Size but Huge Growth Ahead,Solar Microinverter Companies

Solar Microinverters typciall sell for 75-90c/watt which means that if all the solar installations in the world at around 18 GW were done using microinverters,then the size of the addressable market would be $12.5-16 billion,however a lot of the installations are larger than 1 MW in which micro inverters are not used.Also micro inverters are mainly sold in the US and Canada so the total size of the addressable market becomes more like 500 MW which is around $$375-450 million dollars.Enphase Energy the biggest microinverter manufacturer has sold around 500,000 prouducts which implies total lifetime revenues of around $40 million.According to IMS Research around 1 GW of microinverters would be installed in 2013 and the market size would be around $700 million.I think the market size will be greater given that other geographies have not been penetrated,the residential solar market is growing faster and more companies will lead to a bigger market
April 4, 2011

India Consumer Durables Stocks – Consumer Discretionary Companies a Good Play on Rising Indian Middle Class

India's Economy is expected to grow by around 8% in the next decade making it one of the fastest growing major economies in the world.India's per capita has been rising constantly since the last 2 decades and is expected to continue this rising trend as well.Despite growing inequality in incomes,India's massive population ensures that even by 15% of India's poor enter the middle class it adds a Brazil to the addressable market for Indian consumer companies.Indian Consumer Companies especially the well managed ones with good corporate governance has given spectacular growth to investors.Companies like Titan Industries have become a multibagger stock in the last few years driven by excellent growth and decent margins.Note many of the bigger consumer durable companies in India are not listed here but have a major presence.In Electronics particuarly companies like Samsung,LG,Sony,Philips have a big marketshare but are not listed on the markets.However a number of Indian Consumer Discretionary Stocks are listed and have given huge returns to investors.
April 4, 2011

Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Manufacturers in India – "Defensive with Growth" Characterizes India's Non Discretionary Consumer Stocks (FMCG Companies,Brands,Industry)

India's GDP unlike that of other emerging developing countries has a bigger consumer percentage than investment.This is because India's economic growth model has not followed the tradiotional export growth model of the other countries in Asia like China.This makes India more resilient to external shocks like the Lehman crisis and provides a more domestic orientation to growth.India has one of the fastest growing economics in the world and as the per capita income increase,consumer companies in India are reaping outsized rewards.India has a competitive consumer goods market with a number of domestic and international companies competing in multiple markets and segments.Some of the companies like HLL which is a subsidiary of the global consumer giant Unilever has become an Indian company all but in ownership.Note Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) companies are different from Consumer Durables companies.FMGC companies are what is known as Consumer Non-Discretionary Group of Companies.These Companies sell products of everyday use and are recession proof in the sense that the products sold by FMCG Manufacturers can't be ignored even in times of economic recessions.
March 16, 2011

PTC India Financial Services (PFS) Review and Analysis – Too Expensive to Buy the Financial cum Energy IPO despite Quality and Growth

PTC India Financial Services has substantial advantages of growth,a good business model in India's booming Energy Sector.However the valuation of the company has been kept too high for essentially what is a financial intermediary.The growth of the company has been compensated by the high valuation making it not such a good buy especially in the context of the current stock market and economic conditions.It might be better to look at cheaper alternatives in the Indian Infra Sector.
March 7, 2011

Lovable Lingerie IPO Review and Analysis – Should you buy the Stock for some love?

Lovable Lingerie is an innerwear textile company that is coming out with a $20 million IPO.Unlike other totally junk issues which are totally hands of market operators,this one seems to have decent fundamentals and the valuation is not too expensive either.The company has managed to sell 6% pre-IPO to Sequioa Capital which is one of the blue blood PE firms in the country.However this should not be an endorsement given that a number of their investments have bombed in the recent mid cap and small cap carnage.Corporate governance and management issues in small companies in India is totally out of control so investing just based on pure fundamentals does not help.Also a number of other companies in the same sector in textiles remain at attractive valuations.That said the company does have good differentiation as it leverages on the fast growing Indian consumer growth story.The company sells Lingerie though top retail outlets like Lifestyle,Shopper's Stop in top Indian metros and has good brand recall.Here are the positives and negatives of the company based on its DRHP.
December 14, 2010

Punjab & Sind Bank set for Huge Oversubscription like MOIL IPO

Note the issue size of the IPO is quite small at around $100 million which means the retail portion is only $30 million.Coal India IPO with a $3 billion issue and $1 billion retail portion got subscribed by almost 2-2.5x.This mean that Punjab and Sind Bank can get subscribed by almost 60x since MOIL IPO got 55-60 times overall subscription with almost 31x retail portion even when the issue size was almost triple that of Punjab and Sind Bank.Note though MOIL IPO in my opinion was more undervalued than PNSB,still I think oversubscription in case of this PSU Bank would be higher than that and could easily cross the 31x retail that MOIL IPO got
November 25, 2010

One97 Communication IPO Review and Analysis – Indian Mobile VAS Player Sees Slowing Growth due to Competition

One97 a Private Equity Backed Mobile Value Added Service (VAS) Company is raising Rs 120 crore ( $25 million) from the Stock Market in an IPO.The Company operates in India's Telecom Sector which is the fastest growing in terms of subscribers and represents a good growth opportunity as 3G services starts to roll out. The Company has not indicated the pricing of shares as of now ,only that it wants to raise Rs 120 crore.Note the VAS Category is seeing increasing competition with a number of new entrants.One97 has diversified into a combined VAS player cum Technology Investor makings its valuation difficult.Note the VAS sector is no longer a unique or fancied one as OnMobile has already listed sometime ago and its valuation has decreased dramatically since then despite improved profits.I would sit out on this one due to the complicated nature of the business,slowing growth and valuation difficulties.A higher risk investor probably might want to buy this one.
August 4, 2010

Guest Post : Guide to successful VC investments

Paul Kedrosky’s research had pointed out, it takes a VC to invest $50 million and be in the industry for seven years to make a good […]