Power
July 4, 2011
At the time of independence in 1947, India's capital market was relatively under-developed. Although there was significant demand for new capital, there was a dearth of providers. Merchant bankers and underwriting firms were almost non-existent. And commercial banks were not equipped to provide long-term industrial finance in any significant manner. By the early 1990s, it was recognized that there was need for greater flexibility to respond to the changing financial system. There was a need for these financial institutions to directly access the capital markets for their funds needs.So a number of infrastructure finance companies were set up.Some of them have become fully private like ICICI while others have been partly privatized. like REC and PFC.Besides a number of private companies have recently become big players in the infrastructure financing space like SREI,L&T Finance etc.Note with almost $1 trillion expected to be spent on infrastructure in India over the next 5 years,the scope for these companies is immense if they manage their assets-liabilities in a decent manner
July 3, 2011
Solar Products in India are set to grow at a tremendous rate in the future driven by the declining costs of solar power and the increasing price of fossil fuel energy products.Already we are seeing massive power cuts across the country due to shortage of coal.Beside this,the prices of electricity has increased tremendously as well and is approaching seriously high levels due the increasing price of coal and gas.This has made it inevitable that people will turn towards solar products which are not only becoming cheaper but are also greener.Solar Products comes in a wide variety and range from almost all electrical home appliances.You can solar air conditioners,solar fans,solar toys etc.The main uses of solar products however are those in generating electric power .These are known as solar panels and poised to become ubiquitous in the days to come.The day is not far off when almost every house in India will have solar panels on their roofs to generate cheap electric power.Beside this solar lanterns are already replacing expensive and polluting kerosene lamps in poor households.Solar Lighting is also increasing particularly in those areas where the electricity power grid cannot reach.Solar Heaters have become extremely popular in southern India as solar water heaters are much cheaper than normal electricity powered water heaters.Though Solar Cookers have not caught on in a big way,there are also very cost effective and clean.Below is listed out the main solar products sold in India along-with their suppliers
July 3, 2011
Natural Gas in USA is seeing massive investments and interest due to very large shale gas discoveries enabled by improvements in Gas Drilling and Extraction Technology.Billions of Dollars have been invested by domestic and international oil and gas companies.Plans are being made to Export Natural Gas from America as the price of Natural Gas in USA has now become considerably lower than other parts of the world.While prices of other Fossil Fuels like Oil and Coal are rising at steep rate,Natural Gas Prices have fallen even below the 2008 crisis levels and are now at around $3.5/mmbtu.With production increasing Natural Gas is increasingly looking to garner marketshare gains in the energy sector in the US.Countries around the world like India and China are also looking to tap shale gas deposits as Energy Scarcity increases around the globe.
July 2, 2011
Vestas has been getting bigger orders and has been streamlining operations,however its stock price has continued to go down as investors see bleak future prospects wit hthe entry of Korean shipbuilders into the industry.Other heavyweights like Gamesa and Suzlon too have faced massive losses as margins have evaporated in the face of declining topline and prices.But now Vestas has got a lifeline from the renewable energy subsidiary of the French giant utility EDF.The order from is for 2000 MW of Wind Turbines over the next few years.While pricing was not disclosed,it would be certainly be at a discount to the normally premium prices charged by Vestas.This given order visibility to Vestas and provides price safety for EDF.The next frontier for Wind Energy Companies is going to be Offshore Wind and Siemens has stolen a march.Vestas is not going down without a fight recently introducing a 7 MW wind turbine for this segment
July 1, 2011
Cheap Financing by massive state owned Chinese Banks like Chiina Development Bank (CDB),China Construction Bank etc is being used as a strategic weapon to push Chinese renewable energy exports.Note cheap financing has always been used by big nations like Japan and USA to push exports by their domestic companies.United States EXIM Bank has been financing solar projects in India at very cheap interest rates to help First Solar sells its Solar Panels.Similarly China too has started using the huge balance sheet of its state owned banks to push its large green companies.Note CDB has extended almost $35 billion in credit lines to big Chinese solar companies like Suntech,Trina,Yingli,LDK and others.These credit lines can be used by renewable energy companies to finance the projects of their customers.Note Chinese Banks had bankrolled massive power equipment purchases in India being made by Dongfang and Shanghar Electric Groups.
June 30, 2011
Note the cost of Hydropower at $1-3/watt are quite large and if not planned and implemented correctly can lead to huge time and cost escalation.The Inga 3 Dam being proposed to be built on the Congo River in the DRC faces tough choices.The Hydro Dam on the Congo which will become the biggest hydro power project in Africa is wresting over design issues.The major choice is between tunneling through rock structures or keeping open channels.Note the total cost of the 7 GW Power Plant will be around $14 billion making it the biggest investment in Congo and the 5th largest Hydro Power Plant in the world.Note Africa suffers from chronic power shortages which will become more acute with rising cots of fossil fuels and increasing per capita electricity demands.Making correct decisions on energy is vitally important for the development of the African continent.China is the country with the largest hydro power capacity at 200 GW which it wants to further increase to a massive 400 GW by 2020.
June 30, 2011
Huge Solar Panel Projects are being planned in the USA by solar developers and utilities as solar panel prices have fallen by 20-30% in the second quarter of 2011 as solar panel manufacturers are faced with oversupply and inventory issues.Note building both coal and nuclear power plants in the US has become increasingly difficult with pollution and climate change issues coming to the fore.While natural gas is getting a boost due to cheap shale gas discoveries,solar energy is picking up pace due to the government support in the form of DOE Loan guarantees and Treasury Grant programs like 1705.Recently two very large solar panel projects have been announced or are in the process over the next 3-4 years.
June 30, 2011
NGO Krishi Bikash Shilpa Kendra (KBSK) members have been involved in the past in job heist schemes where they have fleeced money from unsuspecting villages using jobs as incentives.5 members of the organization had been arrested in West Bengal .The organization had also used the names of central officials and the national emblem to embezzle money from poor villages.It does not have an inspiring track record with a former secretary in jail as well.There is little details about how this NGO will go about this program or how it would get funds to do it as well.
June 30, 2011
Wind Power in India has been growing at a rapid pace making India the 5th largest global market for wind energy despite limited resources of wind energy.India Wind Power Plants are all set to grow with the entry of new wind power developers like Metal Traders MMTC and Ushudeve International.Note MMTC is the state owned metal trading giant while Ushudev is the 3rd largest private sector trader in metals after Adani and Surana Groups.New Wind Farm Developers like Caparo,Greenko,Genting,Techno Electric have already put agressive wind expansion plans in place.Now MMTC and Ushudev have joined the wind party as the economics of wind energy look enticing given the massive shortage of energy and the incentives given the government like GBI,Tax Breaks etc.
June 28, 2011
Orb Energy a non-profit supplier of off grid solar systems in Southern India has got a million dollars in additional funding from Acumen Fund.Orb Energy supplies solar systems to both residential and commercial customers in 4 states in India Kerala,Maharashtra,Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.It is headquartered in Bangalore and received initial funding from Zouk Ventures.Acumen Fund invests in socially relevant enterprises and has also invested in D.Light which is one of the major producers of LED Solar Lanterns in India.Note Orb Energy in its websites says that it sells around 1000 systems a month and plans to double the size of its operations by increasing the number of branches,employees.Solar System is a massive opportunity as Solar Power in India is set to grow exponentially in the coming years.Note Orb Energy is a system installer and does not manufacture solar panels in India.
June 28, 2011
REC is looking to invest more than $600 million to set up 300-400 MW capacity in India and is already talking to the Himachal Pradesh government to set up plants there.REC has said that it is looking for power plants with a PLF of more than 50% which automatically rules out wind and solar energy.Its interesting that REC is concentrating on small hydro and biomass power capacity unlike other PSUs which are mainly concentrating on solar energy.India needs massive amounts of investment in renewable energy in order to meet its 15% Renewable Energy Obligation by 2020 from 5% at present.Its instrumental for the large government companies to invest heavily into clean sources of energy.Power Finance Corporation Green Energy has been set up by PFC to become one of the biggest lenders in Green Energy and now REC has also decided to directly invest in Green.More such initiatives will have to be taken to increase the cleantech energy capacity.
June 23, 2011
China installed almost 50% of the world's wind power energy capacity in 2010 as its market exploded from almost nothing to around 18 GW.China's massive energy needs and its growing emissions and pollution problems have led to strong tailwinds for the wind industry.This has also led to the growth of a massive domestic industry which has led to 8 Chinese Wind Turbine Producers among the top 15 global WTG suppliers.Now China is looking to make major inroads into offshore wind energy which is dominated by Europe.China has the only offshore wind farm in Asia off Shanghai and is looking to rapidly ramp up as its energy needs keep growing.With more than 70% of China's electricity coming from dirty coal and the country already consuming 3 billion tons of coal a year,energy sources have to be diversified urgently.
June 23, 2011
Solar Industry Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) have picked up pace in recent times with a number of companies in distress with supply exceeding demand as Italy suddenly changed its solar subsidy policy in April 2011.With high inventory levels and prices crashing only the biggest and best solar panel manufacturers are managing to thrive.Note the Solar PV Industry has not seen too much M&A unlike the Solar Thermal Industry which has always been a hot area for M&A activity as giant industrial groups like Siemens,Areva,Alstom and GE have bought startups to improve their technology offerings.With the Solar PV industry having crossed more than $50 billion mark in 2010,more and more MNC conglomerates have now starting buying solar companies at cheap valuations.Here is a list of the recent buyouts,stake buys and mergers in the Solar PV Industry that have taken place recently.
June 21, 2011
Bangladesh like India is a massive power deficient country with peak power shortage of aroudn 25% and more than 60% of the people in the country lacking access to the power grid.As prices of coal,oil and gas increase it has become harder to provide electricity to some of the poorest people in the world.Solar Energy is an ideal solution as it can provide gridless power,is totally clean in terms of pollution,health hazards and is economical as well since it saves money for building the electricity transmission.The Bangladesh government has itself realized this as the Prime Minister has put up a 21.6 Kw solar power system to power her office.The World Bank had put up $130 million in funding in 2003 which has resulted in more than 1 million homes being powered by solar energy.Note the requirements of power are very small almost 1/10th that of a Western home.Government owned Infrastructure Development Company (IDCOL) has been providing the financing for these small solar panel projects in the country.
June 1, 2011
Wind Power in India has shown sharp growth in 2010 and looks to have a bright future with a number of wind farm developers investing aggressively to expand capacity.Wind Turbine Companies have also been putting up factories in India to catch a slice of the world's fifth largest wind energy market.Even Chinese companies like Dongfang and Shanghai Electric have managed to win contracts from power companies like KSK Energy.Greenko one of the first Green Utilities in India is raising funds to put even more wind turbines in India while Caparo has the biggest expansion plans in place.CLP which is the largest wind energy capacity owner in India too is plowing ahead with plans to add to the wind capacity.The most surprising entry is by Malaysian casino developer Genting which has raised debt from HSBC to put up a 92 MW Wind Farm in India.
June 1, 2011
Top European Wind Companies Vestas,Gamesa and Enercon have gained marketshare in 2010 in the Indian Wind Power Market.Note Indian Wind Energy Companies have been competing with each other as the Indian Wind Power Market starts slowing down.India installed more than 2 GW in Wind Capacity and is the world's fifth largest market.Suzlon the biggest Indian Wind Turbine Company has seen its marketshare go below 50% for the first time to 41% as aggressive initiatives by foreign wind manufacturers pay off.Note GE,Siemens and others have been setting up blade and turbine factories in India to lower costs and improve their position.Gamesa has been the biggest winner by gaining a 10 percent marketshare taking the No.3 position from the world's largest wind turbine company Vestas.Enercon maintaines its 2nd position with 500 MW of installations despite severe legal problems between the domestic unit and the German parent.
June 1, 2011
Indian Telecom Companies are using more than $500 million in fuel subsidies meant for the poor and generating more than 6 million tons of carbon dioxide every year by using diesel gensets at telecom towers not connected to the grid.Note the Telecom Industry in India has not exactly covered itself with glory on other matters with the 2G Telecom Scam already putting top executives in jail and implicating top telecom companies as well.The issues of massive fuel wastage in telecom towers has been raised in the past in greenworldinvestor as telecom tower companies viom,gtl,airtel and others have tried to put lipstick on the pig by making a mockery of green initiatives by committing to convert only a minuscule number of total towers to renewable energy.
May 31, 2011
India and China are largely dependent on Coal for fueling a majority of their energy needs despite the evident disadvantages of coal.China derives almost 80% of its electricity from coal while India uses Coal for 50% of its Energy Needs.Most of the new power plants being built in India have plans to use thermal power which means that the coal demand is going to skyrocket even as these 2 Asian giants are already suffering from coal shortages.India's Coal Production is falling short as the Environment Ministry makes it tough for the coal miners to dig up virgin forest areas even as private Indian power companies keep on building gargantuan thermal power plants of more than 4,000 MW capacity.Most Indian companies are now racing to acquire coal mines abroad joining the Chinese companies.Seeing the massive potential in coal,international resource giants such as Rio Tinto and others are trying to access coal assets as well.
May 31, 2011
Malaysia is one of the biggest hubs of solar manufacturing in the world through aggressive government support programs and tax holidays.It is home to the biggest manufacturing site for the world's most valued solar company First Solar and has been the preferred choice for solar investment from leading global solar companies .The Reasons behind Malaysia’s Success is government support in the forms of tax breaks,loans,simple regulation and low labor costs.While many of these subsidies have been given by other countries like Singapore,Malaysia has done it with a finesse and dedication that has made it a winner.Many world class companies have started solar manufacturing operations in Malaysia like Flextronics,Q-Cells,Sunpower and First Solar.The country has been planning to implement an ambitious Feed in Tariff program to subsidize Renewable Energy generation.The country has been inspired by Germany whose FIT policy has led it to become the largest solar generating country in the world despite its low solar radiation.
May 31, 2011
Solar Lamps in India are one of the most successful solar products in India as they provide economical value without requiring huge subsidies.Note India’s Solar Mission […]
May 30, 2011
Coal has become the hottest energy topic in the world’s fastest growing economies India and China which depend on Coal for a majority of their Energy […]
May 30, 2011
German utilities have protested against the move as recently they were buoyed by the decision of the Merkel led government to extend the life of the nuclear reactors by more than 10 years.However the weight of public opinion has made the German government go into the damage control phase ( though too late in my opinion.German power companies too know that going against popular opposition will be quite fruitless.Note Germany faces problems as the replacement of the 7 shutdown nuclear reactors will be difficult to replace.Solar Power has been playing an important role but in winter this problem may become acute.According to some analysts,Germany will have to import power (nuclear as well) from other European countries.This will lead to increase in electricity prices.However its a great win for all forms of Green Energy as Germany has no alternative but to go with Green Energy as Germany does not have abundant reserves of Cheap Gas (like USA).Also Coal has its disadvantages which make it very difficult in an environmentally conscious country like Germany.
May 12, 2011
Poland is one of the largest countries in Europe to have such a high dependence on Coal Energy to meet its Electricity Needs.Note European Union has a target to meet 20% of its Energy by 2020 from Renewable Energy sources which has mad the fossil fuel dependent Eastern European countries looks towards Wind,Solar and Biomass Energy.Note Eastern European countries like Romania have seen a boom in wind energy driven by incorrect Green Energy subsidy policies while the Solar Boom in Czech led to a drastic increase in electricity prices forcing the government to Bust it with a combination of FIT cuts,tax increases and strict regulation.Poland which is the largest Eastern European country in the EU has traditionally depended on Coal to meet most of its Energy Needs.Despite the major disadvantages of Coal,Poland has resisted reducing the support given to the Thermal Power Industry.The cheapness and abudance of Coal has made it hard for Poland to shift its Energy Policy like other Coal dependent nations like South Africa,China and India.
May 12, 2011
Offshore Wind Energy is supposed to increase from around 3 GW today to 75 GW by 2020 as countries in Europe,Asia and North America heavily support this industry.Onshore wind energy growth on the other hand is expected to slow down as 38 GW of Wind Capacity were installed in 2010 with Western Markets showing a sharp slowdown.Note every industry sees costs declining with large capacity except the mature industries.For example Wind Energy has seen a 10% decline in costs for every 100% increase in installed capacity.Note offshore wind projects offer even more Wind Energy Advantages than normal Land Based Wind Farms.The only problem facing offshore wind power is high costs as the industry still is on the learning curve.PWC has come up with a survey where most of the participants say that it will take 10-15 years for offshore wind energy to reach grid parity.What this means is that Offshore Wind Energy Companies will continue to depend on government subsidies like higher electricity prices,tax breaks,low interest loans to survive.
May 12, 2011
The Chinese Wind Industry has around 80 wind turbine companies many of which are quite small and don't' have the money and expertise to compete in the international markets.Though the Chinese dominate the top global wind turbine companies list with 7 of the top 15 WTG companies Chinese,many are not competitive.Sinovel which has become the largest wind turbine company has recently canceled order for Electrical Control Systems from American Superconductor citing high inventory.Other Wind Turbine companies are in even more trouble as the industry suffers from huge overcapacity.The Chinese Wind Capacity has grown at 100% CAGR to reach 18 GW in 2010.However this strong growth has led to saturation of the wind market and price wars are being seen in China.Exports to other countries have been difficult as the cost of transportation of Wind Turbines is high.Besides Chinese Wind Companies don't possess strong technology and quality unlike established ones like Vestas,Gamesa,GE and Siemens.Though Dongfang and Shanghai Electric have managed to win some Turbine Orders in India,the export percentage is negligible.Wind Power in India too has reached a stable growth level and a number of wind companes in India are fighting for marketshare as well.
May 10, 2011
Power Finance Corporation (PFC) will raise ~$1 billion through a follow-on-public offer (FPO) which is the first divestment by the Government for FY12.Note the government of India has set a target to raise $9 billion through divestment of public sector (PSU) companies stocks.PTC India Financial Services another company operating in the same segment offering finance to power generation companies came out with an IPO.Despite advantages of growth,a good business model in India’s booming Energy Sector,the valuation of the company had been kept too high leading to 20-30% losses from the IPO price.However PFC does not have a high valuation trading for around 9-10x P/E which is comparable to the competitors like REC.However the valuation is not very low also keeping in mind the rising interest rate environment which is making life tough for the Indian Banks and financial intermediaries.Power Finance Corporation has substantial advantages of growth,a good business model in India’s booming Electricity Sector where the List of Power Companies are growing exponentially.The valuation of the company also has been kept at a reasonable level at a discount of around 5% from the prevailing stock market price.The growth of the company has been impressive but a rising interest rate environment,competition from other power finance government providers like IFCI,IDFC,REC makes the issue neutral.It is always possible to buy the stock later or buy competitors in the same space like REC.The stock is a good buy for the long term given the fundamentals,good business sector,however current short term macro problems does not make it a great buy currently.
May 7, 2011
India's Power Sector is seeing massive investments with innumerable business groups setting up thermal power plants in the country spurred by the electricity deficit of more than 15% and the GDP growth of more than 8% expected in the next decade.India's private power companies are competing with each other in setting up massive ultra mega thermal power plants of 4 GW capacity.However India's pathetic state of electricity distribution may lead to huge losses for the investors in the power sector.The reason is that the electricity distribution is controlled by the state utilities which have cumulative losses of $13 billion which is expected to double to $26 billion in another 5 years.These "discoms' don't have money to pay the private producers of power even with an electricity deficit.With India's electricity market a tangle of red tape,losses and government control the situation looks bleak for all the business groups deciding to enter the power sector.
May 6, 2011
China has been rewriting its renewable energy plan in the wake of the Fukushima Nuclear Energy Disaster in Japan.Note there has been a strong global backlash against nuclear energy around the world and 7 nuclear plants in Germany have been closed all but in name.Other countries like South Korea,Italy,Switzerland are rethinking of what do about their nuclear reactors giving the massive tail risks with nuclear generation.China had a target of only 20 GW of solar by 2020 has decided to raise the target by 150% to 50 GW according to the country's leading energy planning authority NRDC.Note China installed more than 15 GW of Wind Energy in 2010 alone becoming the world’s largest Wind Energy Market by far.Solar Energy strongly lags Wind in China despite China having the biggest solar panel manufacturing industry in the world.Its Golden Sun and other Solar Subsidy programs have been small in absolute terms compared to its huge electricity capacity.
May 3, 2011
Coal M&A is picking up at a feverish pace as the demand and price of coal shoot through the roof.Note Coal is the cheapest fossil fuel and powers most of the world's power plants despite its disadvantages.The abundance and cheapness of coal has managed to hide its deleterious effects.Indian and Chinese companies are gobbling up coal mines and companies globally as they rush to secure raw material for the growing thermal power plant capacity.The Adani Group is one of the leading Indian private power companies setting up gigawatts of new thermal power plant capacity.Mundhra Port the Adani Flagship has been buying up coal plants,ports and building power plants to vertically integrate itself in the whole coal supply chain.It recently bought the Australian Linnc Energy's Gaililee coal project for USD 2.7 billion.It has followed it up by buying Abbot Point Coal Terminal from the Queensland state of Australia for 1.8 billion Australian dollars.
May 2, 2011
Arch Coal is the 3rd largest Coal Company in the USA. During the year ended December 31, 2009, the Company sold approximately 126.1 million tons of coal and operated 19 active mines at 11 mining complexes located in the United States. On October 1, 2009, the Company acquired Rio Tinto’s Jacobs Ranch mine with 345 million tons of coal reserves and integrated it into the Black Thunder mine.International Coal on the other hand is a small producer with a market cap of $2.2 billion previously which has managed a nearly 50% premium.Market Cap of $2.2 Billion is a producer of coal in Northern and Central Appalachia .As of December 31, 2009, the Company operated a total of 11 surface and 11 underground coal mines located in Kentucky, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia and Illinois.The Company’s mines in Central Appalachia produced 10.1 million tons of coal in 2009, and the mines in Northern Appalachia produced 3.9 million tons of coal in 2009.