Power
March 19, 2011
Coal Mines in Indonesia,Australia,Africa and North America are selling like hot cakes as Indian,Chinese companies as well as mining conglomerates like Rio Tinto,Vale,BHP Billiton fight to secure raw materials.Note India and China are consuming huge amounts of coal to power their thermal plants.While China consumes a monstrous 3 billion tons,Indian demand is rising at more than 10% a year though on a smaller base.Coal is the cheapest form of power despite its polluting and health hazardous affect.Though Coal Plants in Developed countries are becoming much more expensive to build due to taxes and opposition by environmental groups,there is no stopping their furious growth in countries like China and India.Though India too faces some environmental opposition,massive ultra mega power plants with capacity of 4000 MW are getting built by new Indian private utilities
March 19, 2011
India's Economy is being hampered in its growth trajectory by lack of infrastructure which is leading to supply side problems.India suffers woefully from a lack of roads,electricity,ports etc. and almost a trillion dollars is going to be spent in the next few years as demand outstrips supply.India's Machinery and Capital Goods Industry is set to capitalize on this strong growth and is already seeing massive orders which are 2-3 years worth of their annual revenue.While the stock valuations of the capital goods equipment manufacturers has come down a bit from the heavy days of 2008,they are still quite high reflecting the strong growth potential.India's Engineering Industry is also composed of a number of smaller manufacturers that export light engineering equipment worth several billion dollars mostly to developing countries.India's Machinery Sector is composed of a mix of government owned and private companies as well as the giant capital goods MCN conglomerates like Areva and others.Here is a list of the major Indian equipment manufacturers.
March 14, 2011
Biomass Energy accounted for most of Human Energy Consumption before the 20th century before fossil fuels took over.Biomass Energy still accounts for 1/3rd of Energy requirements in a lot of countries and is the primary energy source for heating and cooking in rural communities.Biomass Electricity accounts for around 1% of the world's electricity capacity of around 5000 GW.With advancement in Biomass Technology a number of Large Scale Biomass Energy Plants are being built in Europe.Even in developing countries like India,the government is strongly supportive of biomass energy and is giving various subsidies to support this alternative energy.Biomass Energy can play an essential role in off grid markets where there is a decent availability of feedstock.Each year millions of tons of crop residue and animal waste is converted into carbon emissions without being used up.Biomass Energy can convert this feedstock into useful electricity without adding carbon to the atmosphere.Waste to Energy is the most unexploited forms of energy and there exists enormous potential here also.Here is a list of the Biomass Energy and Wood Pellet Companies in the World.Note most of the companies are small in nature compared to the wind and solar companies.Most of the biomass electricity companies still have their biomass plants in the drawing or construction stage.Wood Pellet Companies are mostly private companies and not traded on the Stock Exchange.
March 14, 2011
India's Biomass Electricity Capacity at 2 GW (including cogeneration) is around 4% of the world's total Biomass Power Capacity of around 50 GW.US is the leader in Biomass Capacity with around 20% of the world's biomass potential.India has set ambitious plans for expanding the biomass power capacity in the next 10 years.India's Ministry of Renewable Energy has set a very high target of multiplying the power capacity by 10 times in the next 10 years.India's Total Biomass Potential with existing Technology is around 25 GW of which around 8% has been realized till date.India produce s 500 million tonnes of biomass per year, 120-150 million tonnes is surplus
March 13, 2011
Wind Power has come under attack in the USA focused around the Cape Wind Project off the eastern shore.The project which was conceived over 10 years ago has not managed to still build the Wind Farm due to countless number of lawsuits filed for myriad reasons most of which are quite groundless.However some of the reasons have some solid facts behind the opposition to Wind Energy.Note Wind Energy unlike other forms of fossil fuel energy should have much less opposition however it is not so.Unlike Coal,Gas and Oil Energy it does not lead to increase in Greenhouse Gas Emissions and contribute to pollution.It does not lead to deaths of hundreds of miners each year nor has the danger of a catastrophic nuclear meltdown leading to death and disability of thousands.It also does not have the drawback of massive ocean pollution leading to an ecological disaster.However there are still protests against building of Wind Power Capacity and this article examines them in details.At the outset let me mention that advantages of Wind Power far outweighs the Disadvantages.
March 10, 2011
India had set up around 500 MW of Biomass Capacity by 2007 and has increased it by almost 150 MW since then to reach around 1 GW capacity today.Most of Indias' Biomass Electricity is being generated in Andhra Pradesh,Maharashtra,Tamil Nadu,Karnataka and Rajasthan.A lot of new capacity is being built in Punjab and Chattisgarh as well.India with a total biomass capacity of around 1 GW is planning to increase it by 10 times to 10 GW by 2020 by setting up a number of 1-2 MW biomass plants around the country.Around 400-600 acres of land are required to support 1 Mw of Biomass Capacity and 200-300 acres using energy intensive crops.This is much more than what is required for even thin film solar energy which is around 10 acres.The large land requirements make Biomass Energy Scalding a difficult proposition,however it has a great use in niche applications where there is a large amount of crop and animal residue/waste
Biomass Energy is clearly seeing a massive investment of private capital by a number of Green Energy companies.A number of these companies are backed by Private Equity Players.Almost all Sugar Companies in the country co-generate biomass power at their sugar plants.The size of the segment is quite large and has not been listed here.In India 3 types of companies are focused on biomass electricity - Sugar Companies,Rice Companies and Green Energy Utilities.The first 2 categories will be successful as their cost of feedstock is essentially zero while the the success of the third kind will depend on the management and execution.
March 8, 2011
India is set to see a massive infrastructure capex cycle over the next decade as the existing infrastructure fails to support India's massive population.$500 Billion is expected to be spent in India's next 5 year plan with expenditure concentrated on roads,railways,ports,water,power,transportation etc.Capital Goods,Construction and Real Estate Companies will benefit hugely from this capex cycle.A Number of Companies have been raising capital from the Indian Stock Markets as India requires massive amounts of capital to fund its ambitious growth plans. Here is the list of top construction companies in India on the basis of their tie-ups with their international counterparts, technological advancements, generating money from the market to trigger their expansion plans and for establishing an entire township in the wastelands and making it the hottest commercial destination.Note Infrastructure companies in recent days have taken a massive beating falling to their 2008 Lehman lows.This is due the the numerous scams hitting the country,delays due to land acquisition,high interest rates and slow execution.However the long term potential of these construction/EPC companies in India remains excellent due to the massive investments.
March 8, 2011
The US is the world's largest electricity producer and consumer with a total electricity capacity of around 1 Terawatt.The share of Solar Energy in the US Electricity Production is negligible compared to around 19% for Nuclear Energy and around 2-3% for Wind Energy.However Solar Energy in the US is set to grow at high double digits over the next 2 decades as the Costs of Solar Energy Decline with prices of other Energy Forms set to rise.In some states like Hawaii and California,solar energy prices are already at grid parity with retail electricity prices.Some states like New Jersey,Colorado,Arizona have seen sharp increases in solar energy adoption over the last 2-3 years boosted by state specific government policies and subsidies.With the US Federal 30% Cash Grant on System Costs and falling systems prices for solar systems,the growth in inevitable.The US Solar Market has seen the rise of a number of innovative and fast growing system integration and installers.Some companies have come up with innovative financial solutions to solve the high initial investment hurdles in solar systems through leasing and financing plans.Here are a list of Top US Installers/System Integrators.Note the list will keep expanding in the coming years as the size of the US Solar Energy Market Grows.
March 7, 2011
CLP India which is a subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed Power Company CLP is one of the largest private power generation companies in India The company is the biggest wind farm operator in India with around 450 MW of capacity which it plans to raise by another 50% to around 640 MW.Two New Wind Farms will be built in Jaisalmer in Rajasthan and Andhra Pradhesh.The company will use i WTG supplier Enercon with whom it has long relationship.Note India has seen a sharp jump in Wind Energy growth in 2010 due to state and federal subsidies.With Wind Power forming almost 70% of India's current Renewable Energy Capacity,around 1.5-2 GW of new Wind Capacity will be built each year.CLP plans to add around 200-300 MW every year to keep up its pole position.
March 7, 2011
Coal Demand in India is surging as the power companies set up thermal power plants at an astounding rate to triple the power capacity over the next decade.Soaring Coal Prices have already made the Global Electricity Prices shoot up and its probably going to increase more in the coming decade.China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal accounting almost for the 50% of the world's output at 3 Billion Tons.India is far behind at 400 million tons but will fast catch up given the prodigious rate of power plant building that is happening.The Environment is probably going for a toss as India has allowed "No-Go" Forested Areas to be mined.This plus China and India are importing more and more coal from Australia,South Africa and the USA.The recent looking in Australia saw coal prices shoot up alarmingly.Coal India the world's largest coal producing company recently increased the coal price from its shockingly low price leading cement makers and utilities to raise prices more than 5-10%.While its strange for a green blog to recommend coal stocks,the opportunity does exist over the next 10 years till renewable energy comes to grid parity and policymakers don't come to their senses.Here is a list of coal stocks/companies in India .Note there are not many major private coal companies as in the early 1970s, all privately owned coal producing companies were nationalized under the Coal Mines (Nationalisation) Act.
March 6, 2011
India has around 300,000 Telecom Towers around the country , a large portion of which is not connected to the electricity grid.Another large portion does not have access to reliable electricity implying they have to install backup power systems in order to run without interruptions.Diesel Generators have been the choice of telecom operators despite their high carbon imprint.This is because of the ease of buying and installing diesel generators as well as the lower fuel costs as the government in India heavily subsidizes diesel.Note India's Fossil Fuel Subsidies have led to hundreds of distortions in the economy.Corruption,Pilfering,Adulteration is carried out on a large scale due to government subsidies.In fact a senior government official was burnt alive by the Kerosene Mafia a direct outcome of this subsidy policy.But that is a separate issue.
March 5, 2011
Indian Privately Owned Power Utilities are furiously expanding their capacities as India looks to treble its Power Generation Capacity in the next decade.The major power companies like Adani Power and Reliance Power are giving Tata Power a tough fight for the position of the biggest private Indian Utility.While these companies cannot hope to overtake state owned giant NTPC in this decade,they may do so in the next one.Note some of these companies are expected to grow almost 20 times in the next 10 years.Here are the main contenders
Note most of the power plants being built in India are coal ones with the power providers aggressively buying up coal mines in Indonesia,Australia and South Africa to increase fuel security.However in case of any global disruptions,India remains very vulnerable.However India's policymakers are sleeping on this issue.It makes more sense to concentrate on those sources whose fuel security is high such as solar and wind power.Coal also faces the prospect of high carbon taxation as global warming becomes acute.Environmental issues related to power plants has already resulted in some being halted as local citizens agitate against the thermal plant's negative effects on livelihoods and health.
March 3, 2011
India may uses the planned $500 million to $1 Billion in Coal Taxes it expects to generate every year to build transmission lines for renewable energy.Note one of the main impediments for renewable energy is the lack of transmission capability on part of utilities to move clean energy from remote areas to urban demand centres.USA faces an acute problem in this regard and faces a massive debate on how to fund the power grid from windy areas to cities.India too faces a problem in this regard as renewable energy plants mainly wind and solar are to built in remote locations.Note India's Power Grid is very inadequate as large parts of the country lack electricity due to lack of distribution networks.
March 3, 2011
Alternative Energy in India saw significant growth in 2010 with the last 9 months of the year seeing capacity additions of 1800 MW which is almost 10% of the total installed capacity of 18500 MW.The growth in renewable energy was led by Wind Energy which forms almost 70% of the total renewable energy capacity in the country at around 13500 MW.The strong incentives given by both state and central government has led to the sharp growth of wind energy.Note Wind Energy is quite close to Gas based electricity price.India Needs at least 68 GW of Renewable Energy Capacity by 2020 to meet its RPS target of 15% set by CERC (note this is capacity only not hours of electricity).
March 2, 2011
India's Electricity is set to see a huge boom as the 8-9% economic growth rates require massive amounts of energy.India is planning to nearly treble its electricity capacity to almost 450 GW by 2020 from around 160 GW now which means a yearly addition of nearly 23 GW in the next decade.Currently India’s Electricity comes mostly from Coal and Hydro Based Energy.Almost 50% of Energy Requirements and 53% of the Electricity is generated from Coal.Despite Coal being the the Dirtiest Form of Energy,India has got little choice in the matter.Most of India’s upcoming Electricity Plants are based on Coal.Hydro Energy is generated mostly from India’s Northern Himalayan States.Renewable Energy forms only 7.7% of the Capacity with around 11 GW of the 16 GW from Wind Energy.Nuclear Energy is around 3% of the total capacity at around 4.5 GW.Here are the list of the major power utilities in the country which is currently dominated by the state run PSUs.However the next decade should see the rise of private electricity companies.
February 28, 2011
Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) are one of the most important tools for promoting alternative energy in India.The Central Regulatory Commission (CERC) alongwith energy exchanges has been working on making trading in RECs happen since the last one year.Trading in RECs started last week with small amounts of REC trading at the Delhi based Indian Energy Exchange.Note most of the volumes are expected to be traded in the July-Sept Wind Season and October Bagasse planting season.While only small amounts were traded as physical trade is only allowed for 2 hours on last Wednesday of every month,volumes trading should start in 2012.The IEX is targeting around $8 billion in REC trade by 2017 as Renewable Energy in India grows at a faster rate.
February 15, 2011
India's Environment Ministry Jairam Ramesh has been portrayed as the devil incarnate by the industrial lobbies as he has struck down various billion dollar realty, mining and power projects.First it was Vedanta's mining project in Orissa,then the Lavasa township in Pune and then power projects in Andhra Pradesh.While some of these infrastructure projects should go ahead with modifications,it has brought some regard for the environment.While some of the projects like the Jaitapur Nuclear Plant in Maharashtra were given the environmental go-ahead despite serious concerns raised by TISS and local citizens,the trampling of ecology by the corporate lobbies seems to have been curtailed.However India's growing economy and its massive energy needs cannot be kept at bay for long.
November 30, 2010
The increasing amounts of Wind Energy and Solar Energy will require elements of a Smart Grid.China's electricty capacity is going to double in the next 5 years to around 1500 GW from 850-900 GW at present.This will require a huge increase in transmission capacity creating a huge market for electricity equipment giants like Siemens,ABB,Areva and Alstom.China also has the opputunity of creating a a Smart Grid as it builds Transmission Capacity form Scratch.Almost $100 Billion is going to be spent over the next 5 years attracting even IT firms like IBM and Cisco.IBM has already tied up with Chinese cities to roll out a pilot program.Note Smart Grid Technologies are still in their infancy.Chinese investment in Smart Grid will allow development of these technologies giving a huge boost to companies winning Smart Grid Projects in China.The Chinese Market despite its size is a highly competitive market with local companies competing mainly on price.Local companies that are benefiting from the Grid Investment are
October 18, 2010
Wind Energy in India is the biggest Green Industry currently with around 1 GW of Wind Power Capacity being installed in a year on average.The Growth in Wind Industry has been driven by states like Tamil Nadu who have heavily subsidized and promted Wind Energy.India at around 10 GW of Wind Capacity is the world's 5th largest Wind Energy Producer.However India remains far behind China in terms of Wind Energy Growth .Last Year China installed nearly 13 GW of Wind Energy which is more than India's total installed capacity of Wind Energy.With a target of around 230 GW by 2020,China is on track to install 20 GW of WInd Capacity a Year in the next 10 years which would make India a Pygmy.Also two of the largest Wind Turbine Producers Sinovel and Goldwind are from China.India despite producing a world class company Suzlon in the early states of Wind Industry Development is struggling.Suzlon has fallen on very hard times running big losses while other Wind Companies are of hardly any decent size.
September 23, 2010
However Tecpro Systems differs from the other 2 IPOs in the sense that it is primarily focused on the Power Sector Space.It is a leader in the ash handling and material handling systems and is currently diversifying into becoming a turnkey provider in this segment.Like other infrastructure players it has seen amazing growth in the last 3 years at around 70%+.Its margins have come down and stabilized at around 7%.Cash Flow have been negative due the breakneck growth and the high WC requirements of the Construction Sector.The valuation does not seem expensive with the promoters diluting around 15% of the company.
Summary
This EPC company seems a good investment to me though not as good as VA Tech Wabag.The valuation at around 17x P/E is not very expensive though the sector concentration increase the risk for the company.However given the management quality,this company seems a better investment that other construction companies.The growth prospects of the Power Sector in India is huge and Tecpro seems well positioned in this space with partnerships with other major companies like Va Tech Wabag.Though there is some concentration risk,I think Tecpro seems a subscribe.
August 23, 2010
The Green Indices have sharply underperformed the broad market due to a combination of several factors.These are High Competition in Solar Energy,Declining Demand in Wind Energy,Lack of Global Agreement on Climate Change and Slow Growth of Smart Grid Technologies.With developed governments facing pressure to cut fiscal deficits,green investments are also expected to get hit from government stimulus plans.However India and China are the two bright spots in an otherwise bleak Green Investing Landscape.Both countries have a Prodigious Energy Demand which is still growing at a rapid clip.Despite their reliance on Coal and other Fossil Fuel forms,both countries realize the need to promote Renewable Energy.
June 7, 2010
Pumped Hydro Storage Introduction Pumped Hydro Storage along with Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) are the less glamorous cousins of Energy Storage Approaches like Lithium Batteries,Flywheels […]
May 30, 2010
The Indian Government’s launch of the ambitious Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission(JNNSM) promises to catapult India into becoming the Largest Market for Solar Energy in the […]