subsidy
September 22, 2010
Not only Europe,even US is rapidly losing Green Jobs to Asia.Earlier Evergreen Solar had decided to shut down its US plant to set up a factory in China and Energy Conversion Devices is laying off workers to hire more in Mexico.The high costs of labor and capital have made it unfeasible for Western companies to manufacture in the Developed Nations.High Subsidies in the form of Low Interest Long Term Loans,Tax Holidays,Free Land have made the Asian countries irresistible to US companies.First Solar which is the largest manufacturer of panels in the world has most of its production in Malaysia where it enjoys a 15 year tax holiday.Chinese Company's get massive subsidies from the government.This combined with extremely low worker and managerial salaries make western factories totally uncompetitive in a globalized world.REC which is one of the world's biggest solar polysilicon and wafer producers has decided to shut down its module plant in Sweden.While the reason given is isolation from other factories,I suspect the costs are too high in expensive Sweden.Another European Solar Factory closes as Green Industry moves to Low Cost,Subsidy Rich Asia
September 20, 2010
Orient Green Power Ltd (OGPL) is Indias Largest Green Utility and is one of the areas that is a good way to invest in India's Green Energy Sector.The company is owned by the Shriram Group and a couple of PE Players will issue around Rs 900 crores (~$180mm) which will result in a market cap of $450mm.OGPL is a relatively new company setting up and acquiring most of its 200 MW capacity in the last year which comprised of 152 MW of Wind Energy and the rest is Biomass Energy.The company plans to increase this capacity 4 fold to around 1000 MW in the next couple of years with Power Plants in India,Europe and Sri Lanka.The centrepiece of this expansion will be a 300 MW Wind Energy Plant in Tamil Nadu for which $10 million has been already been spent.The company's past profits and cash flow have been negative which is not exactly a concern given that most of the capacity was set up in the last year or so.I like the company's growth plans and the sector in which it operates.India suffers from a huge power deficit and Renewable Energy is being heavily promoted through Government Subsides and Renewable Energy Madates by the CERC.Trading of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) should start in a year or so giving additional revenue streams to Green Energy Producers.Here are the pros and cons of the issue
September 19, 2010
Renewable Energy SMA Solar raises revenue guidance a second time: expects PV market to top 17GW in 2010 – PV-Tech Gigawatt scale: CEC approves Solar Millennium’s […]
September 17, 2010
Finland is a Fossil Fuel Deficient country getting 30% of its power from Nuclear Energy and 28% from mostly Biomass and Hydro Energy.It is constructing more Nuclear Power to meet it future needs but a Recent Nuclear Plant has caused massive headache.Finland's Power Sector has been in the news recently for all the wrong reasons.A Nuclear Plant being built on a Baltic Sea Island of Olkiluoto has entered the annals of Project Finance as one of the biggest Disasters.The main contractor Areva which is the worlds' leading nuclear equipment supplier has surprisingly totally messed up.The original plan of builing the 1600 MW nuclear reactor for 4 billion Euros has doubled to 8 billion Euros.There are reports of faulty concrete bases and steel containers.There is already a blame game between the constructing companies Areva,EDF,Siemens and the government.The time and cost delay has truly been of epic proportions.Areva which is a giant conglomerate has suffered losses on account of just this one project.
September 17, 2010
BYD has fallen almost 35% this year heavily underperforming the market as sales growth has slowed substantially.After a 140% growth in Auto Sales last year,this year the sales growth will go down to 30% as the company has reduced sales target to 600,000 from 800,000 earlier.Chinese auto sales have fallen and BYD has been specially affected with its workhorse F3 Model declining in popularity.The company delivered a good first half with $100 million in 2Q profits.However the company is still quite expensive at $15 Billion Market Cap which would give it a P/E of around 38x.Also the company's strategy to enter solar energy does not make sense.However BYD is a good story for the future.China has made a new Green Policy to create National Champions in the EV and Battery Industry.BYD is a perfect candidate with its strengths in both areas.While its execution in the EV sector is yet to give results,it is already planning into the future getting into the Grid Storage Sectors.I would not put money presently but would wait for a better entry point in the future.
September 16, 2010
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on its 50th Anniversary has called the Developed Nations Subsidies as "Unfair" and has referred Alternative Energy as the biggest challenge facing the Rich Oil Exporting Nation Cartel.OPEC is being a huge hypocrite as Fossil Fuels Subsides totalled $550 Billion last year which is almost 12x the Subsidies given to Green Energy.However no mention of this fact was said as these Green Subsidies were "not acceptable" OPEC.The OPEC Chief Abdalla el-Badri wanted a level playing field with this nascent Green Energy.OPEC is a 12 Nation Club formed mostly of Middle Eastern Nations who control 80% of the Global Oil Reserves and 33% of the Production.Saudi Arabia is the non-official leader of this Cartel and has been known for its opposition to Climate Change efforts.The other nations too support Saudi Arabia recently blocking a group of Poor Island Nations from accessing climate change data.These Nations have shockingly asked for Aid as Global Warming Concerns reduce the Fossil Fuel Demand.Most of the Middle East Exporters are filthy rich generating huge amounts of cash from the Export of Fossil Fuels.
September 15, 2010
Note this Hydro Plant will cost around $31 Billion which is quite costly at $15/watt if the the $31 Billion is used for the 1800 MW capacity.This is is almost 15x the cost of a typical Hydro Capacity and would need massive subsidies.Papua New Guinea is a poor country and might receive aid from Australia but the $31 Billion would make even the richest country balk at this price.Australia is not exactly energy deficient with massive resources of coal,wind and solar energy.In Renewable Energy the country has been quite slow with provinces like NSW and South Australia promoting renewable energy through regional subsidies.Hydro Power is the main source of Clean Power accounting for 90% of the Clean Energy Mix.The Project will take 10 years to build and their remains an outside chance that Oil Prices become so high that 24 hr Hydro Power at that time might make sense at $15/watt.
September 15, 2010
India has started a Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Scheme recently to boost the share of Clean Energy Sources in India’s Electricity Mix.India’s Electricity Regulator (CERC) has […]
September 15, 2010
While Solar Energy is a new kid on the block,Wind Energy has been growing very strongly in the past Decade.Italy was rethinking its Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Scheme to remove price guarantees but at the last minute it changed its mind.Wind is being installed at a rate of 1 GW per year in the last few years.The Italian Mafia has latched onto this lucrative business muscling their way in.The Sicilian Mafia is said to own a large portion of the country Wind Farm Assets and the $1.9 Billion Seizure of assets from a high flying businessman is proof of this.43 Companies mainly operating in the Solar and Wind Segments were seized by the state in one of the biggest swoops against Organized Crime.Wind Turbines involve acquisition of land,local permits and subsidy grants which require a lot of organization and local clout.The Sicilian Mafia is uniquely place to control and organize the setting up of Wind Farms.With a government guaranteed return of Euro 18c/KwH,the Wind Subsidy in Italy is one of the highest in the world.Compare this to the Rest of the World where Wind Subsidies get around $0.10/KwH.Note Criminals have not only been involved in Italy,but there are also reports of nefarious activity in Renewable Energy in Bulgaria,Spain,Canary Islands etc.
September 14, 2010
Czech is a Poster Boy of how not to implement a Feed in Tariff Scheme.While other countries like Spain,Greece have also faced Solar Booms,the Czech Bubble compared to the size of its Economy has been spectacular.The removal of Tax Benefits will further lower the returns for Green Investors which should probably eliminate the make the Czech Renewable Market next year.
September 14, 2010
Greece has a totally confused Green Policy just likes it General Economic Policy.The Parliament had taken a go at simplifying the bureaucratic mess by eliminating permits and approvals for small plants below 500 KW.However 6 months have passed without much progress.Greece needs to do a comprehensive overhaul of the Green Subsidies.The Solar and Wind Costs have fallen greatly in the interim so it needs to reduce the FITs to normalize the returns.Otherwise it might repeat a Spanish/Czech Renewable Energy Boom and Bust.
September 14, 2010
While Japan is a big player in the Solar Energy Manufacturing Market,there are other significant players like USA,China,Germany which have not protested against this discrimination.So why is Japan so miffed as to approach the WTO over this issue.One reason that i can readily think of is the Huge Contract given to Samsung by the Ontario government.The agreement with Samsung gives it the subsidies to set up a huge solar and wind energy capacity in the province.The government will support the company through preferential grid access,subsidies and land.This has given a huge boost to the Green Ambitions of Samsung which wants to become a big player in the Renewable Energy Area.
September 13, 2010
India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has been criticized by a parliamentary committee for missing out several targets on renewable energy installations and cost […]
September 11, 2010
The Desertec Initiative is the Biggest Green Energy Project ever conceived with a vast scale and an ambitious vision.However Desertec falls short on many parameters which are described above for it to ever reach fruition.While small scale versions of this Concept can be implemented like that by Solar Millennium in Egypt,the massive energy framework conceived by Desertec is not feasible.The Huge Subsidies and High Costs make it uneconomical despite its Clean Energy Promise.
September 10, 2010
Inflation continues to rule in the double digits as price of essential food commodities touches new highs.The Federal Government has stopped doing anything promising lower inflation figures in the next months thanks to lower base effect.However absolute prices as compared to 2 years are up almost 30-50%.The High Inflation has not affected the elite Indian classes as Stock Market make new highs and Industry maintains high growth rates.Naxalism is the direct outcome of this huge income inequality which is increasing every day.With no corrective measures being taken except some photo-ops by India's oppurtunistic politicians except internal strife to Increase in India.
September 9, 2010
The South Korean Government has been one of the most proactive ones in promoting Green Industry.During the Global Financial Crisis,the Stimulus Program of South Korea had the highest percentage devoted to Clean Technology Initiatives.Driven by the Government,South Korean Conglomerates have been investing into Green Sectors.Samsung the biggest South Korean has already committed huge investments into CleanTech Sectors like Solar,Wind,LEDs.Korean Shipbuilders like Hyundai,Daewoo and Samsung are getting into manufacturing of Wind Turbines while Chemicals Giant Hanwha
September 9, 2010
China has overtaken the US and EU in Green Industry Leadership.US Utilities like Duke Energy have openly acknowledged Chinese primacy in this regard .Investment in the Renewable Energy Sector in China at $38 billion in 2009 was more than double that in the USA.Companies in the US are outsourcing Green Jobs to Mexico and China due to high costs and lack of Government support.2010 should see this gap widen further with Chinese plans to spend almost $760 Billion in Green Investments in the next decade.The Ernst&Young Ranking of the Most Preferred Green Investment Countries has further bolstered the case of Chinese Leadership.
September 8, 2010
Finland is proposing to build a Billion Dollar Highway from its Capital Helsinki to a City near the Russian Border.This Highway will be the first Zero […]
September 7, 2010
Germany is planning to extend the life of the nuclear reactors that are supposed to close in 2022 by an average of 12 years.Note extension will […]
September 6, 2010
India’s Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) had suddenly come up with an order mandating 6% Renewable Energy Generation for Utilities under National Action Plan on Climate […]
September 6, 2010
Estonia is facing increasing burden of renewable energy subsidies with electricity tariffs rising for the general population.With prices expected to be up almost 10% due to […]
September 5, 2010
.Cisco has said that the Smart Grid Opportunity will be 100-1000 times bigger than the Internet as the Electricity Infrastructure of the world is modernized.Pike Research estimates expenditure on Smart Grid to become $200 Billion by 2015 from $20 Billion at Present.Already large sums of money from the ARRA Stimulus are going to be spend by US Utilities on Smart Grid Projects.There are a host of Software and Hardware Companies in the Race for the Smart Grid Pie.IBM,Google,Microsoft,Honeywell,GE,SAP,Oracle every big company wants a piece of this Multi Billion Dollar Pie.However Cisco is the one putting serious money and effort into its Smart Grid Initiative.
September 1, 2010
Coal India Limited (CIL) would be a safe stock to invest in if it priced in the indicated manner that is a $33 Billion Market Capitalization.This stock won't be a multi bagger but would offer decent price appreciation with almost no downside risks.At trailing P/E of 15x and 3 year average trailing P/E of 20x,the company is not expensive given its competitive strengths.Its dividend yield would be around 1.5% with growth of around ~10-12%.However if you exclude $8.5 Billion in Cash,then the stock seems cheap at around trailing P/E of 11x.It has a P/B of 6x and P/S of around 3x.With its ASP being at a 65% Discount to the International Price,the Company has a huge moat around its business model and I would recommend it as a Buy.
September 1, 2010
This Program will try to avoid the disadvantages of Feed in Tariff Schemes as it will introduce a Market Based Element into the Tariffs.However this project is still at a preliminary stage and will need a lot of fine tuning.Note similar scheme have been implemented in China and India as well.The Chinese 280 MW of Projects have seen cuthroat competition with loss making bids by State Owned Utilities.It remains to be seen whether California can make a success of this RAM Program where China has failed.Even India has reported a huge response for the JNNSM First Phase of PV Projects.The Success of this California program will be crucial as it might serve as a template for future programs by other states and the Federal Government.
August 31, 2010
Don't know how these projects will further the cause of Solar Energy in China as they don't help in formulating realistic Feed in Tariff Rates for the Government's New Energy Administration (NEA).China has long been delaying the introduction of a Feed in Tariff (FIT) for Solar Energy.Note many major countries in the world except for China and the USA have Feed in Tariff Programs to promote Solar Energy.In fact 75% of the world's solar energy installations are dependent on the FIT subsidies.
August 31, 2010
.Most of the State Electricity Distributors are in poor financial shape and have been known to frequently default on their financial obligations.With almost 70-75% of the estimated $2.2 Billion in the first phase of the PV projects to be financed by debt,this represents a big hurdle for the success of Solar Energy.The government needs to come out with some sort of arrangement of guarantees for the smooth functioning of the Solar Mission and instill confidence amongst investors and Banks.
August 31, 2010
Japan is the latest country to raise concerns over the Chinese Monopoly over Rare Earth Minerals.These 17 Minerals are essential for High Technology and Green Industries of the Future and China has a control over 97% of the global deposits of these minerals.The EU had recently warned over the adverse effect over the shortage of these rare minerals while USA is contemplating taking China to the WTO over the same matter.China has defended its action saying that mining of these minerals leads to environmental degradation has reduced the export quota drastically by 72% in the 2nd half of 2010 compared to the First Half.Japanese automakers like Honda,Toyota and Nissan have big plans in the Green Vehicle Sector which uses big amounts of these minerals imported from the mainland.However China's cracking down over illegal exports and tightening control over these rare minerals has sent down tremors in Japan.
August 27, 2010
Czech Republic came out with a Renewable Energy Framework which will finish off the Solar Sector in the country if passed in the current form.Czech despite […]
August 25, 2010
Countries around the world have always managed to shoot themselves on the foot while designing and implementing Feed in Tariff Schemes.Spain did it in 2008 resulting in a Boom and Bust Cycle,Czech is going through the Boom Phase currently while UK seems to be in the starting stage of the Boom.A Bust inevitably follows the Boom,as Bureaucrats never manage to prepare a good incentive scheme to promote Green Energy.It always surprises me how a developed nation government regularly manages to botch up these schemes.
August 25, 2010
Although the global financial crisis has pushed governments to sharply cut aid to the renewable sector, it has had little effect on costs in the solar mirror power sector compared with the photovoltaic (PV) sector, which uses solar panels to generate power.
"We've see some reduction in prices, but nothing like in the PV sector. Costs per megawatt are between 4 and 5 million but they can reach up to six depending on the kind of power storage system you use," Seage said.
Sector analysts put the average cost of CSP per megawatt at about 5 million euros before the global financial crisis, about six times more than for conventional gas-fired power generation.
The high cost of CSP makes it unlikely to be competitive with conventional energy until the next decade, and that also depends on reasonable charges for carbon dioxide emissions.
"We see CSP power becoming competitive between 2020 and 2030, depending on a country's levels of radiation," Seage said.