Trade
March 19, 2011
Chinese companies have risen from virtually nothing 5 years ago to become Top 5 Global Wind Energy Players.The Chinese companies have seen massive growth on the back of a strongly growing domestic market.China which now accounts of 50% of the world Wind Turbine market in 2010 is expected to see continued strong growth with the Chinese government setting a target of more than 100 GW by 2015.The growth of the Chinese Turbine Producers has been mainly due to the domestic content requirement set by the Chinese government earlier.The government owned utilities also favor the domestic companies leading to their astounding growth.
March 16, 2011
Japan's Nuclear Crisis has taken a turn for the worse as US Energy Sectratary CHU saying that a Partial Meltdown has occured.Even IAEA has said that the situation has turned very serious with 4 of the reactors suffering from core damage and 3 of the reactors have their spent fuel rods exposed to the atmosphere as cooling systems have failed.While Japan has almost imposed a news blackout,the damaging news comes from the US administration which has said that the crisis exceeds that of the Three Mile Island already.Japan has doubled the number of workers as the crisis continues to escalate.Authorities battling the nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant have doubled the number of workers on the site to 100.Helicopters have failed to cool the plant using water due to radioactive plumes and now the desperate Japanese are planning to use water cannons to spray the pools.
March 16, 2011
The situation at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant continued to be desperate as new fires and explosions rocked the nuclear plant.The utility which owns and operates the Nuclear Reactors Tepco said that the containment structure may have been damaged as smoke was seen from top of one of the reactors.70% of the Fuel Rods at Nuclear Reactor 1 and 33% at Reactor 2 have been exposed.This means that these fuel rods are not being cooled and may be melting leading to increased radiation poisoning hazards.New Fire broke out on the morning of 16th March at Reactor No.4 and containment chamber at Reactor 2 is damaged from Reactor 2.The problems at the Nuclear Plant seems to be increasing with no solution in sight.What is worse is that the 2 reactors No.5 and 6 which have been dormant all this time have all seen their temperature .increasing.Temperatures in the spent fuel rod cooling pools of the shuttered No. 5 and No. 6 reactors were rising as of 7 a.m. today to about 60 degrees Celsius (140 degrees Fahrenheit)
March 15, 2011
The backlash against the new and existing Nuclear Power Plants has started in different places around the world despite defiant expressions by Nuclear Plant Owners and Operators.While China and Italian utility Enel have said that they will go ahead with their billion dollar investment plans,Switzerland and Germany have put nuclear plant extensions on hold.Note Germany had extended the life of Nuclear Plants in the country by 10 years after extensive lobbying by the Nuclear Industry.This had led to huge protests from the Opposition Greens but the government had gone ahead in order to reduce Power Costs.However Merkel has been forced to eat humble pie and has said that a 3 month review will be done to check the safety of the Nuclear Reactors.Switzerland has also come out and put the plans for new Nuclear Reactors on Freeze.
March 15, 2011
The explosion and fire at the Japanese Nuclear Plant in NorthEast of Japan has led to the release of a small nuclear plume above the reactors.The southern winds have caused this radiation to spread in many of the prefectures in Japan and cesium and other radioactivity has been detected in the capital of Tokyo.Note Radiation does not affect the human body in small doses as radiation is present in our everyday lives at well.However the increase in radiation concentration can lead to severe health hazards and in extreme cases even death.It is almost impossible to escape radiation effects unless one has special nuclear,biological warfare protective equipment.Note Radiation in Japan is still at quite mild levels and seems unlikely to cause any major health hazard.Radiation will need to increase about 1000 times from the current level for the situation to become serious as of now
March 15, 2011
Japan's Nuclear Disaster took a turn for the worse as another Fire and Blast in the Nuclear Reactor led to Severe Radiation Leak.Japan's PM warned people within 20 miles of the Plant to evacuate and within 30 miles to remain indoors.There is a high probability of the Nuclear Containment Vessel may get Damaged as Temperatures kept rising with the failure of the Cooling Systems.Radiation Levels at the reactor reached 965.5 micro sievert per hour, later jumping to 8,217 micro sievert at 8:31 p.m. The level would be more than eight times the 1,000 micro sievert limit to which people can be exposed in one year without effect, according to the report.The Wind was blowing south which implies that one of the highest population density cities in the world - Tokyo might feel the affects of Radiation.Prime Minister Naoto Kan urged calm in a national address Tuesday.
February 28, 2011
The Reserve Bank of India has clarified that Indian individuals cannot trade in the forex markets under FEMA rules.Note a number of Indian brokers and forex companies were advertising heavily promising big returns to retail investors.Note forex markets are extremely tough to trade even for professional traders for institutions.For retail investors they are a sure shot way to lose money in large amounts.Note forex markets offer much higher leverage than normal Futures Equity markets.Being an effectively zero sum game and requiring high amounts of knowledge ,forex markets are just too sophisticated for retail investors in my view.But they are quite lucrative for forex trading portals and companies whose main target semgent are retail investors.
February 18, 2011
China has come under a lot of fire for its proectionist trade policies from mulitnational corporations like Siemens,GE,Google as well as its major trading partners.One of the bones of contention is its export restrictions on crucial minerals like zinc,lead,cadmium, gold, indium, iron ore, lime, lead, manganese, mercury, molybdenum, phosphate, salt, tin, tungsten, vanadium and zinc.China is surprisingly the biggest producer of these minerals and has been hoarding these minerals.Note China is the biggest importer of minerals like copper,coal,iron ore etc. so its hoarding is surprising.This action by China came under the scanner when it restricted the export of rare earth minerals over a small dispute with Japan.This resulted in alarm bells ringing in Europe,USA and Japan.These countries scurried for alternative sources of these crucial REE in other places as China controlled more than 95% of the world's supply.
January 13, 2011
USA recently signed a Military Law which obliges the US Defense Forces to buy Solar Panels which are made in the USA.This "Buy American" proposal directly contradicts US actions and policy which advocates free trade in Green Energy.The US Steelworkers Trade Union recently filed a petition with the US Administration against subsidies being given to the Green Industry by China.US government officials also spoke against the "domestic content" requirements of the Indian Solar Subsidy Policy JNNSM.However when it comes to their own solar panel procurement,the US government has foolishly forced its military forces to buy USA made panels.Not that this will help in boosting the US industry too much,as a number of foreign solar panel producers like Solarworld,Suntech already have module making factories in the United States.Also it remains doubtful about how many solar panels the US Military will buy in the coming years.It will remain a fraction of the global solar demand.Instead of supporting US Solar companies like Evergreen Solar,Energy Conversion Devices which are fighting to survive,the administration has given billion dollar loans to a Spanish Solar Thermal Producer.
January 12, 2011
About 800 jobs in the Solar Industry will be lost directly to China as the USA administration has failed to support its established solar companies.Massachusetts had supported Evergreen with $58 million in subsidies but it was not enough for Evergreen to compete against the ongoing subsidies received by the strong Chinese players who have captured almost 70% of the global market in a few short years.The other US solar companies like Sunpower and First Solar are surviving by manufacturing most of their solar panels in Malaysia and other places.The recent "Buy American" Pentagon Law may not help all that much as module making is a low value add activity already being done by European and Chinese players in the USA.In the complicated supply chain of global manufacturing its difficult to understand who ultimately benefits and loses from such provisions.Note most of the polysilicon going inside the wafers and cells made in Asia are imported from USA and Europe.
December 21, 2010
France recently halted its solar subsidy program for 3 months for solar installations under 3 kw as it was deluged with a large number of applications.Solar Feed in Tariffs are quite generous for certain type of solar panel installations like BIPV and greenhouses.This combined with rapidly falling solar panel prices primarly due to low cost Chinese manufacturing has made the business extremely lucrative.Note France is not the first country to see a massive flood of solar applications.Spain,Czech,Germany,Australia have faced problems with solar feed in tariff programs mainly because of poor design by slow moving bureaucrats.However most of these countries have never blamed cheap Chinese panel imports for their badly designed programs.Germany which is the undisputed solar market leader did for a while raise the Chinese bogey but it was for a short while.Anyone with a little understanding of the solar industry would know that almost 50% of the value is created in installation which is all done locally.Also most of the polysilicon raw material is made in the West as also most of the equipment used in producing panels in China.
December 21, 2010
Dongfang Electric Corporation,China's largest power equipment producer has bagged major contracts in India.Dongfang Electric is the 3rd biggest Wind Turbine Producer in China as well and has managed to bag a 276 MW $203 billion WTG supply contract with Abhijeet Group .This is the first major contract wind in the Wind Equipment Sector for a Chinese company and could be start of a major trend.Dongfang has also won a small a massive $2.5 billion contract to supply 6. GW of super critical coal equipment to KSK Energy. Note Chinese companies have become the low cost leaders in the Wind Equipment Industry and sell much below Western competitors.At almost $700,000/MW,the Turbine order is a steal for the Abhijeet Group and cannot be matched by Indian or Western players.Leading WTG companies from the West like Vestas and Gamesa are reeling from Chinese competition and slowdown in Western markets.Suzlon too has been affected as Korean shipbuilders and Chinese wind producers have become major players.Using domestic content requirements and technology transfer,Chinese companies have become top global producers from zero presence just 5 years ago.
December 15, 2010
Rare Earth Metals promise to be a continuing geopolitical drama for the coming few years as Chinese monopoly over these crucial raw materials continues.Japan has already been at the receiving end of a Chinese exports embargo once and has its companies scattering to secure rare earth mineral resources in varied places like India,Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Vietnam.Hitachi is looking to increase recycling of rare earth minerals while other companies too are looking to optimize and reuse these metals.USA is currently less susceptible to rare earth disruptions as its requirements are quite low and anyway it imports most of the products using rare earth in finished form.
December 15, 2010
USA has opposed India’s Local Content Requirements for the Federal Solar Energy JNNSM program.Note according to the JNNSM rules,solar panels will have to be produced in […]
December 13, 2010
Japan and China has suffered from perhaps the most tense relationships with the Japanese occupation of Chinese territory during World War 2.China recently embargoed the export of crucial rare earth minerals in which it has a virtual monopoly causing great distress amongst Japanese administrators.China's military has started to become more and more sophisticated with China even now becoming an arms exporter of low tech weapons.With growth in Chinese economy,the technology sophistication of Chinese weapons systems has also grown.Close relations between China and Russia have also led to sale of front-line weapons systems such as the Sukhoi 35 fighters to China.It is no wonder that Japan is started to reorient its Defence towards China from Russia.Greater emphasis is being placed on the Air Force and Navy rather than on the Army.Note Japan is protected by the US Nuclear Umbrella and has US Forces stationed on its soil.However,declining USA military power (bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan) has made Japan beef up its own defences.Note India too has strengthened its border forces with China stationing new fighter squadrons in the Himalayan region.
December 13, 2010
Note both the Solar Thermal and Solar PV Project bidding have led to grave doubts about how these solar plants will be implemented.Not only are the firms small,unknown with little project experience but they have also bid for feed in tariffs which would definitely lead to losses.According to MNRE,the government also plans to make the local domestic content requirements more stringent.The requirements will be extended to solar inverters as well and the provisions may not stop at 2013 but will go beyond as well.Note the JNNSM mandates that modules for solar energy be made in India in the first year and both cells and panels be made in the 2nd year.This is important for the growth of solar energy equipment manufacturing in India.This has been successfully used by both China and Canada to foster the growth of the green industry in their domestic market.However it has the side effect of raising prices and increasing inefficiency as they would lead to higher costs.They could also lead to the gaming of the system particularly as India is highly corruption prone country.
December 9, 2010
Carbon Emissions Trading has always had profiteering built into it as private companies try to game a government regulated system for reducing GHG emissions.Carbon Trading which came into being after the birth of the Kyoto Protocol has got a lot of consultants and investment banks involved.While many of the schemes to earn carbon credits seem unethical they are not illegal.However a number of frauds have been unearthed in Europe which is the ground zero for Emissions Trading.The number of frauds have only increased since then with Italy suspending trading and 1.6 million carbon credits stolen from a Romanian carbon registry.The complexity and information asymmetry has always put the insiders in an advantageous position.The red tape and bureaucracy associated with the Carbon Trading Scheme ensures that common people and small business cannot take advantage of the carbon reduction scheme.
December 9, 2010
Japan has been desperately looking for Rare Earth Resources after China used its monopolistic position to embargo the supply of REE to Japan.Sojitz has signed a supply deal with new Australian REE developer Lynas while Toshiba is looking to set up a plant in India to mine Rare Metals from the monazite sands of the defunct REE extraction plant in Orissa.Sumitomo the Japanese trading giant too is rumored to be picking up a stake in US REE company Molycorp which expects to soon start its California mine which was shuttered a decade ago after China's low prices bankrupted the REE producers all over the world
November 29, 2010
The Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) which is being jointly developed by India and Japan will also see the development of 24 Green Cities.The ambitious infrastructure project being built with $50-90 Billion will see a freight/railway/road transport corridor between India's 2 most important cities of Delhi and Mumbai.The resulting development along this transport corridor which will be passing through 6 states will make use of Green Technologies.Japanese Conglomerates like Hitachi,Toshiba,Mitsubishi will be involved in the building of this massive projects and will use their advanced energy efficient technologies to develop these Green Cities.
November 29, 2010
Toshiba,the Japanese Conglomerate with diversified interests in Electronics,Nuclear Energy Equipment,NAND Memory is leading the Japanese Search for Rare Earth Minerals.Fears of Chinese monopoly over production of REE came true,when Exports to Japan were blocked over a shipping incident.EU and USA have long been concerned with the Chinese control of 95% of the global REE production with USA even thinking of taking China to the WTO.Japan has recently drastically increased its investment into finding new sources of Rare Earth with recent deals with Vietnam,India,Kazakhstan and others.Sojitz, a Trading Zaibatsu recently signed a long term supply deal with Lynas.Toshiba is the other Japanese firm actively scouting for Rare Earth Minerals looking for newer processes and geographies.
October 27, 2010
USA is the 2nd largest importer of REE and it has thought of taking the issue to WTO.But the WTO has proved to be quite toothless delaying the hearing of issue till 2011.Obama has decided to rake up the REE shortage in the G-20 meeting even as US Senate thinks of passing legislation to boost domestic sources of REE.Molycorp was up more than 11% forming yet another lifetime high on the news.Note the US Congress has already passed a REE law and the Senate needs to endorse the draft in order for it to become law.Rare Earth Elements have a Defense Angle to them as well as many of the REE such as samarium are used in Defense Products.Radars,Pathfinders,Smart Bombs and a number of hitech weaponry require Rare Elements for their production.Without a domestic source,USA might be put at a serious disadvantage in the coming decades.
October 24, 2010
WTO Defers Chinese Case to 2011
European Union,Mexico and USA had filed a case with WTO in 2009 over the Chinese monopoly and trade resticitions of rare earth minerals.However WTO has failed to resolve the issue despite a time limit of 6 months.The WTO Panel has defered the WTO case to April 2011 without assigning a reason.WTO is more of a negotiatino forum rather than a body which can punish violators .To expect WTO to make China increase it export quota of rare earth minerals is like living in a fool's paradise.Trade Tensions between China and other world trade powers is already very high.Currency and Global Imbalances are already major issues which threaten to derail the world economic recovery (however faint it maybe).Rare Earth Minerals are proving to be another big thorn in trade relations between China and the West.
October 22, 2010
While Section 301 was a powerful, unilateral U.S. trade policy weapon prior to the establishment of the WTO dispute settlement process, since 1995 it has rarely been invoked and has not produced any sanctions or WTO cases. In a post-WTO world, therefore, the USW petition could be said to be unprecedented. It is the first to be accepted by USTR that, if proven, would, invalidate for WTO purposes what amounts to a national industrial policy. It would seriously undermine the validity of China’s efforts to create “national champions” in certain sectors, to focus on building domestic capacity to address its environmental and energy challenges, and to be a significant, and possibly the dominant, global player in green technologies. Beyond the impact on China, a successful U.S. challenge in the WTO would inevitably chill similar efforts in other countries to use the Chinese industrial development template in other sectors. All of these effects are above and beyond the question of the immediate fall-out that could result if China declines to implement an adverse WTO finding and the U.S. compensation and retaliation is authorized.
October 5, 2010
Japan is now looking to develop mines in Vietnam and Kazakhstan to secure these minerals which are essential to the green and defence industries.The desperation seems high amongst the Japanese as they are also looking to prospect for these minerals in the seas surrounding Japan.Besides these efforts to secure these minerals from newer sources,METI is also looking to recycling and efficiency measures.The Government will set up reprocessing plants in Japan in order to reduce dependence as well as invest in newer methods and processes to increase the efficiency of the usage of these Rare Earth Minerals.While the embargo seems to have eased with reports that the Chinese have allowed one ship with Rare Earth Minerals to proceed to Japan,the future seems uncertain.Lynas Corp ,the Australian Rare Earth Miner which is going to start production in 2011 has said that it has got a Japanese customer for its products.
September 23, 2010
Recently Rare Earth Minerals Companies have seen sharply rising exports.Molycorp which came out with an IPO in the US markets has seen its stock price shooting up despite not producing commercial quantities.Other Australian and Canadian Companies have also seen steep increase in stock price.The Chinese Embargo should lead to further price appreciation as other countries focus on expanding supply and production of these minerals.The recent spat between Japan and China over a fishing boat incident has escalated in recent times with the top leadership in China taking issues.China's relations with other countries have deteriorated in recent times with increasing trade friction with USA,Currency and Territorial Issues with Japan and growing Tension with India over border and land issues.
September 17, 2010
Rise of American Protectionism – Two cases against China in WTO and "Buy American" Bills by Congress
USA is increasing its protectionist actions recently filing 2 cases in World Trade Organisation against China over Electrical Steel and Credit Card payment providers.Only last week a US Union had filed a complaint with the US government about the Predatory Practices of Chinese Green Companies.USA thinks that China has unfairly put duties on US made Steel and it is locking out Mastercard and Visa from the credit card processing market in China.There is little doubt that China indulges in favoritism and implicit and explicit support of domestic companies.However it the scale that is the only difference .Like all other things China also implements its policies king size.MNCs in recent times like GE,Google,Siemens have all criticized Chinse discrimination against foreign companies.However WTO remains an ineffective body to resolve complex Trades Disputes.The US Congress is also getting into the China-Bashing Act by passing 2 bills that mandate "Buy American" clauses.The US has already antagonized the Indian IT Industry by specifically targeting the Indian companies like Infosys and Wipro.These new bills target China making it mandatory for government departments to buy American made goods.With November Elections fast approaching,politicians are outdoing each other in protectionist rhetoric.
September 14, 2010
Global Imbalances back to pre-Lehman Days Global Imbalances are growing deeper by the day as the world returns to its unsustainable pre-Lehman days of Unbalanced Trade.Trade […]
September 9, 2010
China has overtaken the US and EU in Green Industry Leadership.US Utilities like Duke Energy have openly acknowledged Chinese primacy in this regard .Investment in the Renewable Energy Sector in China at $38 billion in 2009 was more than double that in the USA.Companies in the US are outsourcing Green Jobs to Mexico and China due to high costs and lack of Government support.2010 should see this gap widen further with Chinese plans to spend almost $760 Billion in Green Investments in the next decade.The Ernst&Young Ranking of the Most Preferred Green Investment Countries has further bolstered the case of Chinese Leadership.
September 5, 2010
Now Japan has warned China that it will lose FDI if it continues to use such policies against foreign companies.Recent labor unrest in Honda and Toyota factories have become a sticking point for the Japanese.Opaque and confusing rules,export controls over rare earth minerals and heavily biased judiciary have made life quite difficult for the foreign companies.The European Union on the other hand has complained of the lack of access to the Chinese market.Rules meant to deter foreign investment has made EU companies look elsewhere.