2010
October 20, 2010
Rare Earth Metals which are sold as oxides have seen an exponential price rise in recent months with the corresponding rise in stock prices of rare earth stocks like Lynas,Molycorp,Avalon,Jiangxi Copper,Chinalco,Inner Mongolia Bao-Tao etc.While China has now said that it will increase production and exports of rare earth minerals next year,the confusing signals are sure to keep the prices of the rare earth minerals high.Note the reserves and production of rare earth minerals are finite and their uses growing ,the prices of rare earth minerals are bound to increase.While the last 2 months increase has been due to a combination of geopolitical factors,quantitative easing and speculation,it looks in the years ahead rare earth price should keep increasing.Note other supply sources are being developed in Russia,Vietnam,Kazakhstan,Australia,Africa and Canada.So there will be a lots of ups and downs,however the secular growth story of rare earth prices is intact.
October 20, 2010
The Commonwealth Games (CWG) hosted in New Delhi,India recently gave rise to a monumental scam.It is an open secret that huge amounts of cash were siphoned off by officials,politicians and contractors involved in infrastructure building.The cheating and fraud committed on public money has been exposed already.Some of the officials have been fired without a single one being jailed or convicted.The CWG Committee was led by a leader of India's ruling party Suresh Kalmadi while the provincial government of Delhi is also ruled over the the Congress Party.The probes and investigation which were held in abeyance until the completion of the Games has started now.However like always expect a lot of media fanfare without any convictions or jailtime for the offenders.India's Ruling Party Members are already blaming each other openly for being corrupt without fear of retribution.India's Political and Business Elite has made the mockery of Indian Justice System a Child's Game.The Chief Opposition Party also can't come all guns blazing as one of its leader Sudhanshu Mittal has also been a kingpin in the Corruption Racket.
October 20, 2010
According to a report from Maplecroft,India and Bangladesh are the countries most at risk from the deleterious effects of Climate Change.The other countries in South Asia like Nepal,Myanmar,Pakistan are not far behind.Maldives the smallest country in South Asia is the heaviest in danger with its very existence at stake.Next in the list are African countries like Mozambique,Madagascar and others from Global Warming Changes like Droughts,Floods,Submersion etc.Note Climate Change has faced massive setbacks in recent time with the failure of the Copenhagen meet and not much chance of success with the next Cancun meet.USA and China the two biggest emitters of GHGs have been reluctant to move forward in the the Climate Change issue.Note the poorest countries are the most vulnerable to climate change and they have the least voice in climate change talks.Rich countries like Saudi Arabia have even blocked studies on climate change by poor island nations.
October 18, 2010
India is one of the largest consumers of Gold in the world with a strong cultural and religious affinity for this "barbaric relic".Giving of gold jewellery during marriage is sort of compulsory and is even bought as an investment.The high prices of gold has failed to dampen the enthusiasm for gold amongst India's increasingly wealthy classes.While Silver is also bought during some auspicious days such as "Dhanteras",Gold rules the roost as far as precious metals are concerned.Traditionally Gold has been bought from jewellers in the form of jewellery by Indians,however sophistication of the Indian Financial Industry has increased the gold buying options for Indian investors.Here is examining some of the pros and cons of different investment options .
Summary
The best way to buy gold in India is through Gold BeEs ETF for low expenses and liquidity.However if you want to buy physical gold then your trusted family jeweler may the best choice as Banks and Reputed Retailers of Gold charge an exorbitant 8-10% transaction cost one way on gold.Can't understand why the Banks have to fleece the customers in case of selling Gold.But knowing Indian Banks who love Regulation in fear of competition amongst each other it does not come as a big surprise.
October 18, 2010
India's Massively Growing Industry is clashing head-on with the Environment leading to huge fissures.There have been numerous clashes already with many of the mega industrial projects being cancelled or shifted.Tata Motor's Nano Project in Singur,West Bengal was probably the most famous project to be scrapped after a huge people's uprising due to loss of land and livelihood.Unlike China,where industry manages to always win over people's protests,it is not that easy in India's Democracy.Orissa recently saw Vedanta Resources Bauxite Mining Project cancelled over loss of tribal sacred land loss concerns.This was a huge victory for India's environmentalists as officials and companies were found breaking forest and environment laws.Now POSCO which has been trying to build a $12 Billion Steel Plant in the Mineral Rich State of Eastern India finds that Green Approvals given might be cancelled by a panel of government experts.Note the POSCO project was stopped recently pending an environmental assessment whose report will be published on Oct 25.Despite hectic lobbying by POSCO and the provincial Orissa government,the project looks set for more delays.Note the Steel Plant which was started in 2005 is already way behind schedule.
October 18, 2010
Hitachi has been running large losses at its Lithium Batter Division due the the severe global competition in the international Lithium Battery Market.With huge growth expected in the Green Automobile Industry in the future,everyone is trying to establish a strong foothold in this emerging segment.Hitachi is one of the lesser known names in the Battery Industry and the company does not expect profits in the next 3 years.However the company's fortunes in the Green Industry might change as it has teamed up with Automobile Parts Giant Johnson Controls.JCI is a multi billion US company with leadership position in the Energy Efficiency,Lead Batteries and Automobile Parts.The company has shown increasing profits and revenues in all of its division in the last quarter.It would suit both companies to design,develop and market batteries for the Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Segments.
October 18, 2010
Wind Energy in India is the biggest Green Industry currently with around 1 GW of Wind Power Capacity being installed in a year on average.The Growth in Wind Industry has been driven by states like Tamil Nadu who have heavily subsidized and promted Wind Energy.India at around 10 GW of Wind Capacity is the world's 5th largest Wind Energy Producer.However India remains far behind China in terms of Wind Energy Growth .Last Year China installed nearly 13 GW of Wind Energy which is more than India's total installed capacity of Wind Energy.With a target of around 230 GW by 2020,China is on track to install 20 GW of WInd Capacity a Year in the next 10 years which would make India a Pygmy.Also two of the largest Wind Turbine Producers Sinovel and Goldwind are from China.India despite producing a world class company Suzlon in the early states of Wind Industry Development is struggling.Suzlon has fallen on very hard times running big losses while other Wind Companies are of hardly any decent size.
October 17, 2010
US Steelworkers Union filed a Trade Complaint against China over its predatory practices in Green Sectors recently listing numerous infringements.While it was not thought of as a serious complaint because all Green Sectors have an element of Subsidy from Governments.This was seen as more of a tactical maneuver to gain more concessions from Chinese Green Investors in the USA like the A-Power deal with USW to buy USA made Steel for its Wind Turbine Plant in the USA.However what has been surprising is the alacrity with which the USA administration has accepted the 301 Filing.Now the USA Government Apparatus will investigate the claims and file punitive duties and penalties on Chinese made Green Products imported into the US.This has already resulted in a major stock sell-off in Chinese Solar Stocks which were enjoying a great rally.Note this Green War is part of a general Trade Cold War between the USA and China.This threatens to derail the feeble global economic recovery that we have seen so far.Without compromise and agreement between the major global powers on reducing the huge global imbalances,this could easily result in a Depression which was averted in 2008.
October 14, 2010
Coal India IPO the biggest primary market-raising company in the history of the markets has raised a huge amount of investor interest.The investor is barraged with […]
October 14, 2010
1) Tax on Solar Subsidies - The Czech Government which used to give a tax holiday to solar energy revenues will be withdrawn and a new tax rate will be introduced.
2) No more Free Carbon Credits - The administration will generate revenue through selling the carbon credits rather than giving it free to Renewable Energy Producers.This will remove another source of return for solar investors.
3) Rent for Power Plants on Agricultural Lands - The Government also plans to impose a Fee on Solar Power Plants that are built on Agricultural Lands.
Czech is facing a massive economic problem due to the increase in electricity prices at a time of Fiscal Compression.This has been mainly an outcome of huge subsidies being given to the solar energy producers.With almost 1.6 GW of Solar Energy being installed by 2010,the government had no other option than to clamp down and clawback some of the super-normal profits being given to solar investors.
October 14, 2010
Solar Panels despite being mostly a commodity comes in a wide variety of types,technology,prices,size and colors.You can read an introduction about the lowest cost panels here.With there being no global index of Solar Panel Prices and with Prices of Solar Panels forming very quickly,its a difficult problem in acquiring the cheapest solar panels.The problem is compounded for solar panel buyers because these panels are typically sold by wholesalers and distributors who charge fat margins without providing any additional value.Also due to the lack of knowledge about the quality and the properties of solar panels,buyers generally get fleeced.Also panels are seldom sold separately as it is generally part of the overall package of the complete installation of panels,inverters,wiring,connection and integration.Here is a quick overview of which are the companies which make the lowest cost solar panels on the planet at a good quality and the most recent prices which they are selling at.Notice that the European and Japanese solar panels are of much higher price despite there being very little to differentiate themselves from Asian solar panels.
October 13, 2010
The Transmission Line will give a huge boost to Offshore WInd Energy in the United States.The Government has estimated a 4000 GW Offshore Wind Potential which is almost 4 times bigger than the current 1000 GW Electricity Generating Capacity . However note the load factors for wind is usually 1/4th to 1/3rd that of normal Fossil Fuel Energy so it would be incorrect to say that Offshore Wind could generate 4 times the current US Electricity like some websites are doing.However this is not to takeaway from the fact that this will help wind energy and green jobs considerably.US is seriously lagging behind countries like China and South Korea in the upcoming Green Industry.Lack of US Climate Legislation and indifferent individuals and companies are creating massive roadblocks in Climate Mitigation.Tranmission Costs are a big hurdle for Offshore as well as Onshore Wind Energy.Note the bigger the consumer area for Renewable Energy the less the adverse affects of intermittency.The Tres Amigas Transmission SuperHub is another example of Private Initiative in the Electricity Transmission Area.While the dollar benefits to the investing companies might be uncertain,the Green Benefits of this move are immense.The US Electricity Regulator has already given a thumbs up and the US Administration also seems very supportive recently approving the Cape Wind Offshore Wind Farm in Federal Waters in Nanutech Sound.
October 13, 2010
42% of World's Hungry Children Live in India
In contrast to the exponential growth of wealth of India's upper classes,the poor continue to eke out a miserable existence mired in hunger and constantly facing starvation.Globalization of Agriculture has further increased Food Price Inflation making their positive even more precarious.According to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI),India slipped 2 places to be ranked in the 67th place amongst 88 nations in the Hunger Index.Despite a stellar economic performance over the last 20 years or so and sharp rise in per capita GDP,India remains one of the poorest nations on earth.It ranks below even Nepal,Pakistan,Sudan with 48% of India's children stunted due to lack of food.The report is a strong indictment of growth policies which has made its children mostly hungry and stunted.Other strongly growing economies like Brazil and China have performed much better than India.Time for India's government to radically change the structure of India's economic growth.Despite promotion of policies like NREGA and midday meals for poor,rank corruption and leakage has led to India being the hungriest nation on earth.
October 13, 2010
Note Solar Panels prices differ widely depending on the technology,power,brand and quality.Thin Film Panels in general cost lower than crystalline silicon panels.Higher Power Panels have a higher price as they generate more electricity.Good Brands also have a higher price tag while cheap imported Chinese panels cost less.Solar Panel prices have decreased by almost 50% in the last 2-3 years and now sell for around Rs 1800-2500 per panel internationally and should fall to around Rs 1000 in the next 3-4 years . However for small installations on house of 1-5 KiloWatts,panels sold by distributors is more expensive and can cost you almost 50% more.Also Solar Panels form only a part of the total Solar System Cost.The total cost of installation,equipment and wiring can cost upto Rs 30,000/Kilowatt.
October 12, 2010
GE is now looking to dethrone the No.1 Solar Energy Producer First Solar using its all round strengths.GE had invested in a Cadmium Tellurium Startup Prime Solar which is ramping up production.Note Cd-Te is the same technology which is used by First Solar.GE has said that it has managed to attain 15% efficiency on commercial glass.Don't know how much of it is true since First Solar only manages around 12% efficiency despite around 10 years of dedicated R&D.However if GE can even manage to get near to that level then it would surely give First Solar a run for its money.GE has also tied up with Japanese Solar Frontier to market its CIGs based modules.Note Solar Frontier or Showa Shell is building a massive 900 MW plant in Japan.This would make Frontier Solar one of the biggest Solar Players in the world.GE is offering an integrated solution comprising of modules,inverters,services and other BOS equipment to get a leg up on competition.
October 12, 2010
With most of the low hanging fruit of polysilicon costs already gone,the industry has to focus on efficiency to cut down on costs.Selective emitters,microinverters,DC-DC optimization and other technologies are already finding takers.A Number of microinverter companies like Tigo,Enphase Energy etc are tying up with global heavyweights like Suntech and Sunpower to increase their penetration and cut costs.National Semiconductor has also tied up with Suntech to integrate its products with Suntech Modules to improve efficiency and reliability.The Balance of Systems costs for Solar Panels and their Performance are not usually paid a lot of attention.But with every cent now making a big difference,these technology could make or break a company in this commoditizing industry.While the value addition and costs of these new products are still subject to market acceptance,its a major change for the industry.This is the next phase in the evolution of the solar energy industry as it looks to additional ways to cut costs and bring solar energy to grid parity.Look for M&A in this space as well since the industry is fragmented with a host of VC backed startups.
October 12, 2010
Rosatom has strong competencies despite the Chernobyl disaster as a black mark in its history.The Company has already constructed reactors in China,India and Iran during the Soviet Union Days and is constructing 5 reactors in foreign markets.With strong technology expertise and with laxer safety standards at home,it is trying to outflank Areva in its home turf.Note Areva is already facing losses from the Finland Nuclear Project which has proved to be a huge disaster.It additionally faces competition from Toshiba-Westinghouse which is ramping up its efforts to compete with Areva.GE-Hitachi suffers from a technological handicap compared with Toshiba and Areva,however GE cannot be underestimated because of its Global Reach and Industrial Strengths.Rosatom is that last thing that Areva needs in its shrinking home turf of Europe.Germany is facing huge opposition just for extending the life of its nuclear reactors while France has pretty much saturated its Electricity Market with Nuclear Energy.
October 12, 2010
Saint Gobain like Semiconductor Giant TSMC is betting on Copper Indium Gallium Selenium (CIGs) Technology rather than the mainstream crystalline silicon technology.CIGs is getting the most significant investments these days compared to other thin film technology.Yesterday Ascent Solar (ASTI) got an IEC certification for its flexible modules which would enable it to target the mainstream rooftop market from niche applications earlier.Miasole has improved the efficiency and costs of it CIGs greatly while Nanosolar can't be counted out because of its strong backers.Solyndra however remains mostly in the shadows despite around $1 billion in private investment.Stion is another strong contender partnering with TSMC and also thinking of opening a plant in Taiwan on its own as well.Saint Gobain is already a big player in the solar market as it suppliers glass to a lot of solar companies for their modules.Getting into panel manufacturing will further allow it to get a foothold of this new potentially giant industry.Du Pont,Dow Chemicals,Corning all have considerable presence in the solar equipment market as well.
October 12, 2010
Indian IPO Rules allows the Merchant Bankers of the Issue to give favored institutional clients a part of the IPO even before the issue starts.This has the advantage for both parties as funds get a guaranteed portion of the IPO and Bankers can tout the quality of the company.However you would have to question these "Anchor Investors' on how they invest in such IPOs.Prestige Estates a Realty Company coming out with an IPO is another low quality company to come out with a high valuation.So finding 21 Anchor Investors is a surprise.Despite the Real Estate Market being avoided by Fund Mangers due to questionable practice,23 Funds have found it worthwhile to add Prestige Estates to their portfolio.Makes you wonder if Institutional Investors are Plain Incompetent ,Compromised or Both
October 12, 2010
The US Federal Reserve is hell bent on preventing deflation through whatever means possible.It has raised the prospect of 2008 when Commodities all over the world raced to new highs due to cuts in Interest Rates.2010 has already seen its first food riots in Africa and 2011 should more of the same.Every Commodity be it Gold,Silver,Coffee,Sugar,Rice,Wheat is jumping higher as the common denominator Dollar gets Debased by US Policies.While the stupidness of the Monetary Easing is a big exhaustive issue in itself,the prospect of higher commodity prices is a huge danger.It is already fueling dangerous equity bubbles in the emerging markets of Asia.Currency Wars are already starting to happen on a small scale as Crazy Monetary Policies take hold in the US.Food Prices are a very major problem in poor countries unlike developed countries where food forms only a small part of the daily expenditure.With Food forming 50-80% of the expenditure of poor citizens,a 50% increase in Prices immediately leads to hunger and starvation.However don't think the US Fed concerns itself with such trivial issues.
October 12, 2010
Prestige Estates is an Indian Real Estate Company with its operations focused in the southern part of India mainly in the techie city of Bangalore.The company is one on the long list of Realty Companies which have been waiting impatiently to raise money from the Stock Markets trying to pay off their debts.It is raising around Rs 1200 crores or $250mm .Oberoi Realty was a decent Realty Stock as far as the Sector goes which managed good subscription numbers in the last week.With "animal spirits" returning fueled by Bernanke's Helicopter Policy expect more such shoddy Realty issues to hit the market.Note the Sector is an investor minefield with even well connected Fund Managers not trusting the financial statements published by these companies.With the Indian Stock Market already featuring a wide variety in terms of quality and quantity of Realty Stocks,Prestige Estates brings no difference and on analysis seems easy to avoid.Here are some features to this company
Summary
Prestige Estates is another low quality shady highly indebted Realty Company which should be strictly be avoided.It defies any simple analysis because of its convoluted structure and cross holdings.The Company Sales have been stagnant and Margins Low and it has high concentration risk as well.The Management inspires no confidence at all and is a typical example of the badly managed Real Estate Sector in India.Should be avoided at all costs by investors.Note 5 of the last 9 IPOs in India in the last month are giving losses to investors.This promises to be no different given the fundamentals.
October 11, 2010
Abu Dhabi has got the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world with asset of over $600 Billion.The small emirate which is a part of the larger United Arab Emirates is one of the richest countries in the world due to its Oil Riches.The country had made ambitious Renewable Energy Plans setting up a Fund/Company dedicated to its Green Ambitions called Masdar.The Company has faced a number of reverses as it tried a number of things all at once in a new industry.Its "Jack of All Trades" Strategy has proven to be a failure as it lost/fired a number of top executives.Its Solar Plans have also come up a cropper as Thin Film Technology has faced a lot of reverses in recent times.The Company has tried to change tactics by concentrating now on Solar Thermal Technology partnering with Abengoa and Total in building a CSP plant near Abu Dhabi.With its Renewable Energy Arm facing a number of reverses,its plan for a futuristic,zero carbon Green Masdar City has also been scaled down.
October 11, 2010
Constellation Energy has become the latest USA Utility to cancel its proposed new nuclear energy plant to be built in Maryland.Despite a Loan Guarantee from Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the US Green Stimulus,Constellation has found the economics of the Nuclear Reactors as unworkable.In fact this is keeping with the trend of other utilities in the Developed World who have found New Nuclear to be too expensive.While a number of cyclical factors are at play (Wind Energy has also been affected) in hindering the development of these plants,it seems a secular shift has occured.Finland has become the poster boy of a Nuclear Project Disaster with the main developer Areva bleeding from losses as time and cost overruns have almost doubled.The increaseing costs of environment and safety regulations has increase manifold since the last spurt of nuclear energy construction in the 1980s.The Nuclear Renaissance has proven to be a complete failure in the Western Countries.While China continues with its aggressive Nuclear Expansion plans,construction in the US has come to a virtual halt.Exelon which is the largest Nuclear Energy Operator in the USA has also halted developed of 2 new reactors in Texas.These Utilities have said that they need much higher energy prices and a carbon tax before going ahead with reaction construction.Note Exelon recently bought a Wind Energy Operator as Solar/Wind become the favored Green Energy choices.
October 11, 2010
A US expert has said that India was the target of the Stuxnet Attack rather than Iran.India's Insat 4B Communications Satellite suffered from a malfunction recently and it used the same Siemens software which was the target of this Worm Attack.India has been subject to Chinese cyberwarfare attacks in the past .This has led to a general wariness in the Indian Establishment over Chinese origin companies like Huawei operating in India.Tensions between Indian and China have been rising over a range of issues such as territory,supply of arms and nuclear reactors to Pakistan and construction of military bases around India.The failure of an Indian Communications Satellite without any explicit attack done surreptitiously by Chinese hackers does not seem far fetched.Nothing would be clearly known to the general public given the clandestine nature of these cyberwarfare between nation states.However India's decision to bolster its cyberwarfare capabilities and the recent decision by Google to abandon China,all point to China using cyberattacks as an instrument of statecraft.
October 11, 2010
Coal India is coming out with India's biggest IPO offering in the Stock Market History.The company seems fundamentally strong on almost all aspects and is also pricing itself at a significant discount to its global peers.Both superficially and deep down,the analysis points CIL to be a very safe investment at a cheap valuation.Other analysts are also coming to the same conclusion,as Rating Agency has given CIL a 5/5 Rating which is probably the first in the history of IPO Grading .In order to give a more balanced perspective and avoid herd tendencies,I am listing out what the risks and negatives are with this company.Note this does not make me negative on the stock on which I am very positively biased.It is just to give investors the other side of the debate which I think general analysis will lack.
Despite the above Risks , I think that Coal India is one of the best quality stocks to come out in India's Primary Markets.However investors should be wary of the risks which will be glossed over by the mainstream media and brokerages . As with every investment however safe it might look,there are risks.This does not mean that investors should be fearful of every investment.It is by being aware of the risks,that prudent risk management can be done which is essential to successful investing.
October 10, 2010
In the last 4-5 years, the real estate investment community seems to have been a victim of optimism bias. This is most exemplified in the severe under estimation of time/duration required for construction/operation of project investments. For fund managers who have made investments in major parts of Asia (China, Vietnam, India, Indonesia) in the last 4-5 years, under estimation of timelines is the one area in which they all concede to have erred. The experience has shown how easy it is to fall into the optimism bias trap and start believing that once the finance is secured and the contracts awarded, things just roll on in an automode. Following are some of interesting reasons (these are all true) by which projects have gone significantly delayed
It is believed that the only section of the population that isn't susceptible to the optimism bias are people with major depressive disorder. Probably funds should consider hiring some of them.
October 7, 2010
Mazda the Japanese Automobile Producer has decided to double the R&D spending on EcoFriendly Vehicles over the next 5 years.The Company has decided to up the percentage spend on Green Automobile Technology to 40% by 2015 from 20% at present.This implies almost $450 million in annual R&D spend on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles.Mazda has been a latecomer to the new generation Green Automobiles.Like Honda,Mazda trails Toyota and Nissan in the EV and Hybrid Car Technology.
Mazda has already tied up with Toyota to fast track the development of Hybrid Vehicles,the first one which it plans to introduce by 2013.Note Honda and Toyota have already introduced Hybrid Cars and Mazda will face tough competition as it is a latecomer to the Hybrid Party.Other AutoMakers around the world like Hyundai,GM,Ford,Geely,BYD are already well on the way to introducing Green Cars.
October 7, 2010
The Crap continues to hit the Indian Primary Market with another Junk Microcap trying to raise $11 mm from the market.The company will dilute around 48% […]
October 7, 2010
Eastern Europe has seen a massive Green Energy Boom driven by EU 20% Renewable Energy by 2020 Target.Romania has been no exception to their Region Wide Green Growth.In fact Romania is said to have the best Wind Energy Sites in the whole of Europe with a 14 GW potential.The Government has attracted big Wind Developers like CEZ,E.ON and others through a generous Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Scheme.Note the REC Subsidy Mechanism is a popular way of promoting Green Energy by making it mandatory for Utilities to procure a certain portion of their Energy Needs from Green Sources.They have to buy RECs from Trading Exchanges if they are unable to meet their targets.