China and Taiwan to account for 90% of Global Supply

The Chinese solar industry has been making global media headlines as USA imposed a duty on Chinese solar panel imports. A trade war was averted with Europe after both sides reached a last minute deal. Under the deal China is restricted to sell only 7 GW of panels to Europe in one year at a minimum price. China is also facing potential duties in India as well. Despite these issues, China is all set to produce 23 GW of solar panels in 2013, which will account for almost 70% of the global demand of ~35 GW in 2013. The country is too far down the cost curve for other countries to effectively compete with China. Taiwan will account for another 20% of the global supply, which means that these 2 countries will account for almost 90% of the global supply.

China is also making strides in the polysilicon manufacturing and will probably meet half of its domestic demand through internal sources. Polysilicon is the only part of the supply chain where China has failed to dominate. Poly requires high chemical making expertise and small Chinese companies have failed in building economic plants. Most of the plants were too small and too costly and have been shut down. Only a few big poly makers are left in China with half of the requiremenst being imported.