Feed in Tariff
March 4, 2011
The Indian Government’s launch of the ambitious Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission(JNNSM) was done with much fanfare with a target of reaching 20 GW of Solar Capacity by 2022 under 3 phases from the 81 MW currently.While the government had the best intentions and had laid down a well defined 10 year plan with subsidy support for both Solar Thermal and Solar PV Technology,it has already run into problems.Due to high interest the government went in for bidding of projects which led to irrationally low bidding from unknown firms.This has put the entire exercise in question with the the biggest private utility saying JNNSM is a failure.Without extensions of deadlines it looks highly unlikely whether the 37 winners will actually put up the plants.
February 7, 2011
Italian Electricity Regulator really shook the global solar market saying that approximately 6 GW of Solar Installations were done in the country in 2010 up almost 500% from 2010.While 2 GW were installed and connected in 2010,4 GW worth of application were submitted by 50,000 installations which were installed but not connected.This means that that Italy's target of 8 GW in 2020 was almost fully met in 2010 itself.I had written that Italian Solar Feed in Tariff Subsidy Cuts for 2011 will fail to stop the Boom in Solar Demand and the 2020 target would be met much earlier.But 2010 was not in my wildest projection.The combination of high sunlight,high electricity rates,falling solar module prices and attractive feed in tariff by the government has made investing in solar in Italy a hugely profitable venture.So 6 GW is not totally impossible given the massive supply growth seen in solar panels.Every solar company in the world had been shipping to capacity making it a mystery as to what was the source of such demand.Italy might prove to be the answer.
January 25, 2011
The Spanish Government faces multiple lawsuits over its Royal Decrees which cut the Feed in Tariff for Solar PV Installations Retroactively.These laws were passed in Dec 2010 as part of the comprehensive review of the Renewable Energy Subsidies by the government.While Wind Energy and Solar Thermal Subsidies were changed earlier,the controversy over the Solar PV subsidies had forced the government to delay the change to the last minute.These changes were strongly opposed by the Solar PV Industry Association ASIF which has earlier called the measure as "industry killing".These cuts over the next 3 years would be done through a "backdoor approach" in which the subsidies would be restricted for a only a few hours for the Solar PV plants.
January 13, 2011
The Indian Solar Energy Policy JNNSM has been beset with more than its fair share of problems even before completing its first phase.Despite amibtious plans to set up 20 GW of Solar Energy Capacity by 2022,the Policy Support and Subsidy has come under fire from all directions.The First Phase of JNNSM has auctioned 150 MW of Solar PV Capacity to 30 Developers in blocs of 5 MW each.This led to irrational bidding by mostly unknown and bit players which has led many to question to the ultimate viability of these projects.Note the Solar Thermal Bidding has been equally as disastrous with bidding leading to very low tariffs for the winning developers.
December 21, 2010
France recently halted its solar subsidy program for 3 months for solar installations under 3 kw as it was deluged with a large number of applications.Solar Feed in Tariffs are quite generous for certain type of solar panel installations like BIPV and greenhouses.This combined with rapidly falling solar panel prices primarly due to low cost Chinese manufacturing has made the business extremely lucrative.Note France is not the first country to see a massive flood of solar applications.Spain,Czech,Germany,Australia have faced problems with solar feed in tariff programs mainly because of poor design by slow moving bureaucrats.However most of these countries have never blamed cheap Chinese panel imports for their badly designed programs.Germany which is the undisputed solar market leader did for a while raise the Chinese bogey but it was for a short while.Anyone with a little understanding of the solar industry would know that almost 50% of the value is created in installation which is all done locally.Also most of the polysilicon raw material is made in the West as also most of the equipment used in producing panels in China.
December 15, 2010
Germany is almost certain to cut the solar feed in tariff in 2011 on top of the regular 13% decrease.Note Germany is the largest solar market in the world by far and installed an astounding 8 GW of solar panels in 2010.With almost 18 GW of total solar installations,the German solar energy capacity is almost half of the world's capacity despite bad conditions for solar energy.Germany had set a target of around 4-5 GW of solar energy this year in the upper case and this has been vastly exceeded as solar module price cuts have made it attractive to install solar panels.
December 14, 2010
Taiwan which had set a cap restricted solar feed in tariff program in 2009 is set to change the subsidies to reflect the decreasing costs of solar energy.Note Taiwan is one of the biggest solar cell producers in the world,next only to China.A number of its world class companies like TSMC and AUO have made major investments into solar energy recently.It already has big pureplay solar cells companies with Gintech and Motech amongst the top 10 world solar cell producing companies.A big domestic market is a good testing ground for new companies and technologies.Taiwan is now set to change renewable energy subsidies for wind and solar energy.Solar Energy subsidy for 2011 will be lowered while for wind energy it will be increased.Renewable Energy in Taiwan - Feed in Tariffs Wind to be strangely Increased while for Solar Sensibly Decreased
December 13, 2010
Note both the Solar Thermal and Solar PV Project bidding have led to grave doubts about how these solar plants will be implemented.Not only are the firms small,unknown with little project experience but they have also bid for feed in tariffs which would definitely lead to losses.According to MNRE,the government also plans to make the local domestic content requirements more stringent.The requirements will be extended to solar inverters as well and the provisions may not stop at 2013 but will go beyond as well.Note the JNNSM mandates that modules for solar energy be made in India in the first year and both cells and panels be made in the 2nd year.This is important for the growth of solar energy equipment manufacturing in India.This has been successfully used by both China and Canada to foster the growth of the green industry in their domestic market.However it has the side effect of raising prices and increasing inefficiency as they would lead to higher costs.They could also lead to the gaming of the system particularly as India is highly corruption prone country.
December 8, 2010
The biggest problem is that the winners of the Solar PV Projects are mostly unknown small firms who have bid so low that make the returns negative for investors according to the renewable energy ministry officials (MNRE).Bidding has gone as low as 23c/Kwh which is crazily low considering the debt costs in India are as high as 13% annually.Compare that to China where debt is priced as low as 3-4% and the winners are huge utilities.With even India's Tata Power saying that the projects are not bankable as their is confusion how the electricity tariffs will go to developers,its difficult how these unknown firms could manage the financing .While the companies will lose their bid deposits if they don't finish the projects,Indian Solar Energy will be the biggest loser as the failure of the Phase 1 of JNNSM of 1000 MW by 2013 will lead to even further delays.Already JNNSM has been criticized by a parliamentary panel for the tardy progress.Note some states have taken the lead in pushing solar energy on their own,namely Gujarat which aims to put up more than 500 MW in the next year or two.
December 8, 2010
NextEra Energy Resources which was previously known as FPL Energy has bought a number of Solar Energy Generating Assets in the past few months.NextEra is the largest Renewable Energy utility in the USA with around 18 GW of Capacity out of which around 6.5 GW is Gas and 7.5 GW of Wind Powered Capacity plus 2.5 GW of Nuclear Energy.NextEra Energy with its long experience in Green Energy Generation has now decided to expand its Solar Asset Portfolio buying equity stakes in Solar Thermal as well as Solar PV Farms in USA and Canada.NextEra Energy is already the biggest Wind Energy Producer in the United States and on the way to become the biggest Solar Energy Producer as well.While Wind Energy is facing uncertain times in the USA,Solar Energy is growing at a rapid clip driven by the sharp fall in Solar Panel Costs which have more than halved in the last 2 years.
December 4, 2010
France has halted its solar feed in tariff bubble putting a moratorium on new applications for installing solar panels above for 3 kw installations.This has been done after applications for solar panels exceeded the 500 MW per year target set up by the French ministry.The Prime Minister called the solar feed in tariff subsidies reaching a “veritable speculative bubble”.France has already changed its solar feed in tariffs 2-3 times in 2010 as it tries to fine tune the subsidies so that renewable energy investors earn a decent return.However the fast decrease in solar panel prices has caught the bureaucrats off-guard which is not surprising.Feed in Tariffs in general have been badly designed by most public authorities around the world leading to huge bubbles.Czech has suffered from the biggest solar subsidy bubble on which it recently cracked down through taxes,50% cut in tariffs and other measures as electricity rates increased sharply as subsidies ballooned.Spain and Italy have found their Feed in Tariffs leading to runaway subsidies while Germany which has the most successful FIT program too had to cut FIT by a single ad hoc measure in order to prevent a bubble.
December 4, 2010
Note China has not passed a solar feed in tariff despite expectations amongst solar companies for a long time.China is a solar equipment leader with 60% of Solar Panel Production taking place in China.However 98% of the panels are exported making trading partners angry.High cost Europeans and Japanese companies have been almost driven away from the global solar market unable to compete with the Chinese solar majors.Solar Energy Demand in China is still minuscule compared to the world.Soaring Coal Prices,insufficient energy supply and carbon emissions have made China think of investing a trillion dollars into green industry.Solar however has not found sufficient love despite 280 MW national auction for solar projects.Wind Energy has grown exponentially in China and now accounts for 50% of the world demand.If the same thing were to happen to Solar Energy,the China's Solar Demand would grow by 20 times.
November 29, 2010
India's JNNSM Phase 1 which is targeting 1000 MW of Solar Power Capacity by 2013 is in jeopardy due to irrational bidding,financing and small size.The 150 MW Solar PV and ~500 MW of Solar Thermal Capacity which has been put to bidding is going to see massive discounts.This will eventually lead to project winners abandoning these projects or delaying it inordinately,leading to a failure of the first phase.India Solar Thermal Bidding has already seen Massive Discounts from the base prices of Rs 15.31 set by CERC and the Solar PV project bidding for 150 MW is going to see equally ferocious discounts.Tata Power,which is India's largest private utility is staying away from these auctions due to the above problems.Renewable Energy in India has a huge growth potential with Solar Energy the brightest Green Energy Sector.This has attracted companies in droves leading to hyper competition for the first phase of India's Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission.However huge competition in this subsidy driven sector is not necessarily good for the growth of Renewable Energy as irrational bidding by small players would lead to project failures.
November 26, 2010
India has set up ambitious targets of meeting 15% of its Energy Needs from Renewable Sources up from around 5.5-6% in 2010.WIth India's Electricity Capacity expected to rise to 450 GW from around 165 GW,this would imply that around 67.5 GW of Electricity Capacity would be needed up from around 16 GW.This would mean around 5 GW of Capacity addition every year in the next decade which is a very tall order.20 GW could be met by Solar Energy according to the Jawaharlal Nehru Solar Mission (JNNSM).Most of the rest would have to met by Wind Energy.Biomass Energy has high costs and reliability problems which mini hydro potential is only 1 GW.Note this is just the capacity I am talking about,for meeting the electricity generation,capacity additions would have to be greater as Solar Energy and Wind Energy have only 20-30% Load Factor compared to 60-80% for Fossil Fuel Energy Sources.Nuclear Energy can contribute another 20 GW.
Renewable Energy in India is growing at a rapid pace increasing its share of the total capacity from 2% in 2003 to around 10% in 2010.However the share of electricity generation is still quite low at 3% due to the lower capacity load factors of Green Energy Sources compared to Fossil Fuel Sources.The Total Installed Capacity of Renewable Energy in India is around 16 GW with Wind Energy taking the Lion's share at almost 70% followed by Small Hydro at 15% and Biomass Energy at 12%.Solar Energy in India till now has a capacity of just 6 MW which is estimated to grow to 22 GW by 2022 making Solar Energy one of the Biggest Growth Opportunities in the Field of Indian Energy.
November 22, 2010
India's ambitious JNNSM Plan to build 20 GW of Solar Capacity by 2022 has seen projects being awarded for 479 MW of Solar Thermal Projects under Phase-1.The Solar Project Bidding was expected to be extremely competitive and it turned out to be exactly that with dis conts of more than 30% being offered to the base price of RS 15.31 for Solar Thermal generated Electricty.Note Rs 15.31 was determined to be a decent price on which a Solar Thermal Plant Developer could get decent returns just a year ago.This means that a 30% Discount would lead to zero or very low returns for the Solar Thermal Winners.According to news reports there are 7 winners for these Solar Thermal Plants 6 of which will come up in Rajasthan which seems to be the biggest winner of these Solar Subsidy Scheme.Andhra Pradesh is the only other state to win a Solar Thermal Project.There were about 60 applicants for the Solar Thermal Part of the Phase 1 JNNSM Bidding from which these 7 have been selected.
November 15, 2010
Solar Energy in India represents one of the best Energy opportunities in the 21st Century.However the growth at least in the initial stages will be geographically unequal.This is due to the fact that Solar Power requires strong government support and subsidy currently.Without a proactive administration which smooths out the process of setting up a solar plant,growth of solar energy is almost impossible.The Indian Federal Government has already given it a strong push targeting 1000 MW by 2013 and 20 GW by 2022 under the JNSSM.While the Subsidy Program is facing some initial hurdles due to debt financing and aggressive project bidding,the long term secular growth story remains good.Some states have also been aggressive in supporting solar energy namely the western states of Gujarat and Rajasthan.
November 15, 2010
India's 150 MW Solar Allocation to PV Technology has seen overbidding upto 10 times and the winners will be decided based upon the discounting on the Rs 17.91/Kwh (40c/KwH).The discounting promises to be clearly be irrational and loss making as Large Conglomerates and Integrated Solar Companies fight with each other to win projects at any cost.Feed in Tariffs across the world has only worked out well where there is no discounting or bidding mechanism.In case of bidding,especially in immature nascent markets,the winners of the projects end up as the losers.Renewable Energy also ends up on the losing side as many of these projects are not completed or have to be restructured defeating the entire purpose of the Subsidy Scheme.India's Solar Energy Sector promises to be one of the biggest energy opportunities in the 21st Century.However this will require a very smart subsidy strategy by the government
November 13, 2010
Australia has shortlisted 8 projects with 4 Solar PV and 4 Solar Thermal Projects for its Solar Flagship Program which will be decided in 2011.BP Solar with 150 MW and Suntech/Infigen with 195 MW are on the shortlist.The other 2 companies are energy utilities which are proposing to use Cd-Te Panels ( I think from First Solar).Note both of these energy utilities are small and might face problems in fund raising and execution.The firms shortlisted for the Solar Thermal Projects don't inspire much confidence either.The selection procedure and how the subsidy will be disbursed has ran into controversy with accusations of bias and partiality.WA has not gotten any projects while Queensland province has gotten most of the projects.The firms shortlisted have also come under fire as they don't have much experience.Not much information on how the firms were shortlisted but these companies are definitely not the best or cheapest by a big margin.Australia has generally made a mess of promoting renewable energy with New South Wales cutting feed in tariffs sharply after giving an overly generous subsidy.The Solar Flagship Program looks like an expensive mistake in the making if it comes to fruition.
October 30, 2010
Planned Czech Solar FIT cuts will heavily favor subsidies to Small Distributed Rooftop Installations
Czech has seen the biggest Solar Growth Explosion compared to its size powered by extremely generous feed in tariffs.This has made Czech one of the top solar installers in the world and led to a huge public backlash.The Czech government has responded by proposing to bust the Solar Energy Bubble by drastically cutting down the Feed in Tariffs.The administration is also trying to reign in the ballooning subsidies from existing solar plants by imposing taxes on solar plants and carbon credits.This is being done as the Czech consumers face a 15-25% increase in electricity prices next year.The country had little option as its very badly designed tariffs had led to a situation where Czech Industry faced the prospect of becoming uncompetitive.
October 27, 2010
EGP is the 4th company of its kind to supply paper to European investors so the demand is not high.Despite EGP having 44% Hydro Assets and 13% Geothermal Assets which is more than its European competitors dependent on Wind Energy,investors are not convinced.Even the lower band of pricing has seen only 60% demand which means that EGP may have to lower it further.Spain and Italy the home countries of Enel are reducing Feed in Tariffs for Green Energy Sources due to Budgetary Problems.Despite removing the most draconian cuts on Renewable Subsidies,the sword of uncertainty continues to hang over the Green Producers.Investors are also looking for a discount on existing companies in order to make commitments to a new issue.EGP has been trying to do an IPO sine last year and the current bullish market environment in Europe might be the best time for it to clinch the deal.
October 26, 2010
Malaysia is set to become one of the largest solar panel producing nations overtaking much larger rivals USA and Japan as world class companies start/expand capacities in Malaysia.Every country is trying to promoter Green Industry in the fight for leadership of this new age industry and to create high paying green jobs.Billions of Dollars in Green Stimulus has been doled out by governments but with varying degrees of success.USA has managed to squander most of its Green Subsidies despite possessing a very strong technological base as US Companies shutter US factories to outsource production to Asia and Mexico.European Countries have seen a similar phenomenon as their high costs force domestic companies to shift to Asia for their survival.China and Taiwan are the largest solar cell producers in Asia due to their low costs,good infrastructure and massive government support.Taiwan has also been able to leverage its semiconductor strengths with companies like TSMC and AUO expanding into solar energy.However Malaysia has been a surprise winner as well.It is important to understand the reasons behind Malaysia's success as it has beat countries with much larger solar energy markets like USA and Japan.It also has no massive semiconductor industry like Taiwan which can redeploy its skills.It has only recently introduced a Feed in Tariff Policy to promote Renewable Energy
October 21, 2010
The HPUC has given a FIT rate which is quite low for solar energy and has failed to implement a policy for installations between 500-5000 KW.Also the FIT rates for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) does not make sense at all for under 500 KW installations.Don't think there exists a single decent producer of such small CSP plants.The FIT Policy was passed despite stiff opposition from the island's utilities who questioned the Feed in Tariff as a good Green Incentive.The huge success enjoyed in Europe by FIT did not make a big impression.Note 80% of the world's solar installations depend on Feed in Tariffs.While there have been bad implementation cases of FIT in Spain and Czech,there have been huge successes in other countries like Germany and UK.HPUC rightly decided to go ahead as trial and errors would be needed . It won't lead to a huge boom in solar in Hawai due to poor returns however it should lead to some boost to existing solar producers or those who were going to install solar anyway.
October 14, 2010
1) Tax on Solar Subsidies - The Czech Government which used to give a tax holiday to solar energy revenues will be withdrawn and a new tax rate will be introduced.
2) No more Free Carbon Credits - The administration will generate revenue through selling the carbon credits rather than giving it free to Renewable Energy Producers.This will remove another source of return for solar investors.
3) Rent for Power Plants on Agricultural Lands - The Government also plans to impose a Fee on Solar Power Plants that are built on Agricultural Lands.
Czech is facing a massive economic problem due to the increase in electricity prices at a time of Fiscal Compression.This has been mainly an outcome of huge subsidies being given to the solar energy producers.With almost 1.6 GW of Solar Energy being installed by 2010,the government had no other option than to clamp down and clawback some of the super-normal profits being given to solar investors.
October 7, 2010
Renewable Energy is Easter Europe has boomed driven by government incentives and subsidies.Many of these countries like Estonia,Bulgaria and Czech are cutting or already have cut generous feed in tariffs paid to Green Energy Investors.While Czech has seen an unprecedented Solar Boom leading to a massive public backlash,Estonia and Bulgaria have seen huge wind energy projects.The Green Energy has boomed in the last 2 years mainly as governments in these countries try to meet the Renewable Energy Target of 20% by 2020 set by the European Union.These East European countries have been hit hard by these EU directives as the costs have spiralled
September 29, 2010
United Kingdom a Laggard on Renewable Energy
UK has been the biggest laggard in Renewable Energy amongst the European Union.Despite being a leader in Offshore Wind,it severely lacks in other forms of Green Energy like Solar,Biomass etc.It has been very late in introducing a Feed in Tariff Scheme which has been a huge success in Germany and other countries.While there have been booms and busts caused by poorly designed FIT schemes in Czech and Spain,UK does not suffer from this problem.The Subsidy Scheme adopted by UK favors small distributed installations which is currently the aim of the other EU countries.This review has led to uncertainty in the minds of Green Investors as Government Subsidy is essential for reasonable returns.
Why UK is Reviewing the FIT
The Labour Government which implement this Green Policy has changed and the new PM David Cameron is trying to radically change the Government Policy.He has sharply curtailed the UK Budget and may want to change the Opposition Party set Green Policy as well.This seems to be the only justification behind this move which can only be described as erratic.
September 25, 2010
Bulgaria has also now decided to cap Renewable Energy Growth with around 12.5 GW of Green Energy applications lying in the backlog.Poorly designed and implemented subsidies are the root cause for such booms and busts.Poor Governance mechanisms are behind these Green Disasters.Bulgaria is the poorest European Union Country and can ill afford higher electricity prices.The government is targeting a 16% RE target by 2020 for which it wants to fix targets for different Green Energy Sources.The power grid operator has already warned of blackouts in case even half of the 12 GW Renewable Energy applications are actually constructed.Solar and Wind Energy have been incentivized with high FITs with global heavyweights like Siemens and Suzlon rushing in to build wind farms.
September 17, 2010
Finland is a Fossil Fuel Deficient country getting 30% of its power from Nuclear Energy and 28% from mostly Biomass and Hydro Energy.It is constructing more Nuclear Power to meet it future needs but a Recent Nuclear Plant has caused massive headache.Finland's Power Sector has been in the news recently for all the wrong reasons.A Nuclear Plant being built on a Baltic Sea Island of Olkiluoto has entered the annals of Project Finance as one of the biggest Disasters.The main contractor Areva which is the worlds' leading nuclear equipment supplier has surprisingly totally messed up.The original plan of builing the 1600 MW nuclear reactor for 4 billion Euros has doubled to 8 billion Euros.There are reports of faulty concrete bases and steel containers.There is already a blame game between the constructing companies Areva,EDF,Siemens and the government.The time and cost delay has truly been of epic proportions.Areva which is a giant conglomerate has suffered losses on account of just this one project.
September 15, 2010
While Solar Energy is a new kid on the block,Wind Energy has been growing very strongly in the past Decade.Italy was rethinking its Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Scheme to remove price guarantees but at the last minute it changed its mind.Wind is being installed at a rate of 1 GW per year in the last few years.The Italian Mafia has latched onto this lucrative business muscling their way in.The Sicilian Mafia is said to own a large portion of the country Wind Farm Assets and the $1.9 Billion Seizure of assets from a high flying businessman is proof of this.43 Companies mainly operating in the Solar and Wind Segments were seized by the state in one of the biggest swoops against Organized Crime.Wind Turbines involve acquisition of land,local permits and subsidy grants which require a lot of organization and local clout.The Sicilian Mafia is uniquely place to control and organize the setting up of Wind Farms.With a government guaranteed return of Euro 18c/KwH,the Wind Subsidy in Italy is one of the highest in the world.Compare this to the Rest of the World where Wind Subsidies get around $0.10/KwH.Note Criminals have not only been involved in Italy,but there are also reports of nefarious activity in Renewable Energy in Bulgaria,Spain,Canary Islands etc.
September 14, 2010
Czech is a Poster Boy of how not to implement a Feed in Tariff Scheme.While other countries like Spain,Greece have also faced Solar Booms,the Czech Bubble compared to the size of its Economy has been spectacular.The removal of Tax Benefits will further lower the returns for Green Investors which should probably eliminate the make the Czech Renewable Market next year.
September 14, 2010
Greece has a totally confused Green Policy just likes it General Economic Policy.The Parliament had taken a go at simplifying the bureaucratic mess by eliminating permits and approvals for small plants below 500 KW.However 6 months have passed without much progress.Greece needs to do a comprehensive overhaul of the Green Subsidies.The Solar and Wind Costs have fallen greatly in the interim so it needs to reduce the FITs to normalize the returns.Otherwise it might repeat a Spanish/Czech Renewable Energy Boom and Bust.