Management
May 10, 2011
Power Finance Corporation (PFC) will raise ~$1 billion through a follow-on-public offer (FPO) which is the first divestment by the Government for FY12.Note the government of India has set a target to raise $9 billion through divestment of public sector (PSU) companies stocks.PTC India Financial Services another company operating in the same segment offering finance to power generation companies came out with an IPO.Despite advantages of growth,a good business model in India’s booming Energy Sector,the valuation of the company had been kept too high leading to 20-30% losses from the IPO price.However PFC does not have a high valuation trading for around 9-10x P/E which is comparable to the competitors like REC.However the valuation is not very low also keeping in mind the rising interest rate environment which is making life tough for the Indian Banks and financial intermediaries.Power Finance Corporation has substantial advantages of growth,a good business model in India’s booming Electricity Sector where the List of Power Companies are growing exponentially.The valuation of the company also has been kept at a reasonable level at a discount of around 5% from the prevailing stock market price.The growth of the company has been impressive but a rising interest rate environment,competition from other power finance government providers like IFCI,IDFC,REC makes the issue neutral.It is always possible to buy the stock later or buy competitors in the same space like REC.The stock is a good buy for the long term given the fundamentals,good business sector,however current short term macro problems does not make it a great buy currently.
April 22, 2011
Future Ventures is a VC/Private Equity Company that has invested in a number of small Indian companies and startups mainly focused on the consumption industry in India.With India growing at around 8-9% in the last few years and expectations of strong future growth driven by consumption,Future Ventures seems a good investment considering the portfolio of companies that it owns (analyzed below).Future Ventures is a part of the Future Group run by Kishore Biyani who started India's most famous retail company Pantaloons.The Company has set a price band of 10-11 rupees a share with a target of raising around Rs. 750crore though the IPO.This would represent around 40% of the equity which would give it a post IPO market capitalization of around $375 million.Note the company had tried to come with an IPO 2 years ago but it was deemed to expensive at that time.
April 11, 2011
South Africa the most economically developed country in the African continent is also is one of the most dependent countries on Coal Energy.Almost 90% of the country's requirements of Electrcity comes from GHG emitting dirty Thermal Power Plants.Sasol which is a leading energy provider in South Africa is the global leader in Coal to Liquid and Coal to Gas Technologies.In fact most of the Fuel Production in South Africa comes from Sasol plants built long time ago to take advantage of the country's mineral rices and avoid the oil embargo placed on the country during apartheid.The country's electricity situation is massively mismanaged with Eskom a monopoly producer and supplier of electricity hardly adding any capacity.This is due to low prices of electricity which now is being added suddenly at 25% each year.This comes after huge shortages slowing down the economy. South Africa has also come up with new Energy Plan which will largely replace Coal Energy by Nuclear and Renewable Sources of Energy.Note South Africa had been in talks to establish a massive solar plants with funding from China which would have used Suntech Solar Panels.There were also rumors of Yingli suppling solar equipment to the country.
April 7, 2011
Solar Industry is a fast growing exciting industry with its inevitable growth pangs as well.The first phase of India's Federal Policy has seen many hurdles and its success is in doubt,on the other hand Gujarat has managed to attract investment and power plants through a forward looking subsidy.States like Uttar Pradesh,Delhi,Maharashtra are also tentatively coming up with their own incentive policies.The Industry will see many ups and downs before it becomes a major billion dollar industry.Note Solar Power Industry has become the fastest growing in USA where it doubled last year and looks set to double this year again.The Nuclear Accident in Japan has given fresh energy to Solar Power with China set to double its target to 10 GW by 2015.
April 6, 2011
Solar Energy in India represents one of the best Energy opportunities in the 21st Century.However the growth at least in the initial stages will be geographically unequal.This is due to the fact that Solar Power requires strong government support and subsidies currently.The Indian Federal Government has already given it a strong push targeting 1000 MW by 2013 and 20 GW by 2022 under the JNSSM.While the Subsidy Program is facing some initial hurdles due to debt financing and aggressive project bidding,individual States are forging ahead to push Solar Energy on their own.Gujarat has been a trailblazer in this regard with The State has already recieved proposals for setting up around 365 MW of Solar Power.Gujarat through its own RPS and Feed in Tariff incentives is targeting 1000 MW by 2013.Rajasthan too is trying to exploit is massive solar insolation potential but its state policies have little clarity or direction yet.The state has signed around 1524 MW of Solar Project with 49 Developers.The Solar Policy Draft Proposal is mostly vague with a target of 10-12 GW in 10-12 years with around 500 MW in the next 2-3 years.Rajasthan is set to see massive solar installation despite its government's vagueness from the Federal JNNSM subsidy.Other states in India like UP,Delhiand Maharashtra have recently started making some moves but remains to be seen how good they are at implementing.While the UP solar subsidy is clearly quite ridiculous,Delhi seems to be on the way to implementing a smart policy of promoting small roof top solar residential installations.
April 1, 2011
Solar Panels Efficiency – Range,Technology Dependence,Companies with Highest Efficient Solar Modules
The Companies that make the Solar Panels with the highest efficiences are Sunpower and Panasonic/Sanyo.Sunpower has the highest efficient solar modules in the market using a properietary process and has solar cells with efficiency reaching a top limit of 24%.Sanyo also has very efficient solar panels under the HIT brand name.These solar panels also approach the 18% range (solar modules not cells).Normal crystalline plain vanilla solar panels come in the range of 13-14%.Note solar modules have lower efficiency than solar cells as some area is left for the frame etc.There are other companies that are fast catching up to Sunpower and Sanyo in the high efficiency solar panels as well.Note higher efficiency solar panels sell at higher prices per watt as the require lesser area.AUO which has a JV with Sunpower has recently claimed to have produced the higher efficiency solar panel .
March 28, 2011
Free Solar Panels don't exist just as Free iPads don't exist.Some websites and companies advertize free solar power or free solar panels based on government subsidies.Note even these free solar power offers are not completely free as they have a payback periods depending on how much government subsidies are given.Nobody is going to give you a free solar panel or a free iPad without a catch.
March 28, 2011
British Petroleum (BP) the multi billion dollar Oil and Gas Conglomerate is a strange player in the Renewable Energy Sector of Solar Energy.BP was a dominant company amongst the top 10 global manufacturers of solar panels till a few years ago.However the lack of interest on the part of management,low investment,lack of R&D has made it a bit player in the fast growing solar panel market.Companies which did not exist till a few years ago have outpaced BP to become top solar panel producers.However BP Solar Panels continue to sell in a number of market because of existing sales relationships and brand name.However it is only uneducated and uninformed consumers who are buying BP Solar Panels in my opinion.BP Solar Panels should be avoided both from an economic point of view and from the environment perspective.
March 19, 2011
While Chinese pure play solar panels companies have already captured a majority of the global solar module market,the entry of newer Chinese players into the solar energy market refused to stop.China's 5 largest state owned utilities have already made their presence felt in the Chinese domestic solar installation market by bidding extremely low to win projects under the Chinese Solar Subsidy program.Automotive companies like BYD have also announced a big investment into solar panel manufacturing while Hanlong and Bluestar Groups have decided to invest in the CPV and Polysilicon sectors respectively.
March 19, 2011
German's Solar Energy Market is the biggest in the world by a fair margin.Germany installed almost 6 gigawatts of solar panels in 2010 taking the total installed capacity to almost 16 GW which is 40% of the world's total installed solar capacity.Note Germany's Photovoltaic Solar Electricity now forms almost 10-15% of the total electricity production in the country at peak time.Note Germany's solar industry got a renewed boost when 7 old nuclear plants were shutdown following Japan's Fukushima Nuclear Disaster recently.Previously Germany had decided to extend the operating life of its Nuclear Plants despite stiff opposition.Germany Solar Subsidy which is framed under the Renewable Energy EEG law has made Germany one of the world's leaders in Wind,Solar and Biomass Energy.Germany's Manufacturing Industry has benefited from the strong domestic market with many of the world's top solar panel companies located there.Solar equipment,inverters and cell companies are also present in large numbers.Recently Germany amended its Feed in Tariff Law to slowdown the exponential growth in solar panel installations.This is over and above the regular reduction in solar subsidies done each year.
March 16, 2011
PTC India Financial Services has substantial advantages of growth,a good business model in India's booming Energy Sector.However the valuation of the company has been kept too high for essentially what is a financial intermediary.The growth of the company has been compensated by the high valuation making it not such a good buy especially in the context of the current stock market and economic conditions.It might be better to look at cheaper alternatives in the Indian Infra Sector.
March 10, 2011
India had set up around 500 MW of Biomass Capacity by 2007 and has increased it by almost 150 MW since then to reach around 1 GW capacity today.Most of Indias' Biomass Electricity is being generated in Andhra Pradesh,Maharashtra,Tamil Nadu,Karnataka and Rajasthan.A lot of new capacity is being built in Punjab and Chattisgarh as well.India with a total biomass capacity of around 1 GW is planning to increase it by 10 times to 10 GW by 2020 by setting up a number of 1-2 MW biomass plants around the country.Around 400-600 acres of land are required to support 1 Mw of Biomass Capacity and 200-300 acres using energy intensive crops.This is much more than what is required for even thin film solar energy which is around 10 acres.The large land requirements make Biomass Energy Scalding a difficult proposition,however it has a great use in niche applications where there is a large amount of crop and animal residue/waste
Biomass Energy is clearly seeing a massive investment of private capital by a number of Green Energy companies.A number of these companies are backed by Private Equity Players.Almost all Sugar Companies in the country co-generate biomass power at their sugar plants.The size of the segment is quite large and has not been listed here.In India 3 types of companies are focused on biomass electricity - Sugar Companies,Rice Companies and Green Energy Utilities.The first 2 categories will be successful as their cost of feedstock is essentially zero while the the success of the third kind will depend on the management and execution.
March 7, 2011
Lovable Lingerie is an innerwear textile company that is coming out with a $20 million IPO.Unlike other totally junk issues which are totally hands of market operators,this one seems to have decent fundamentals and the valuation is not too expensive either.The company has managed to sell 6% pre-IPO to Sequioa Capital which is one of the blue blood PE firms in the country.However this should not be an endorsement given that a number of their investments have bombed in the recent mid cap and small cap carnage.Corporate governance and management issues in small companies in India is totally out of control so investing just based on pure fundamentals does not help.Also a number of other companies in the same sector in textiles remain at attractive valuations.That said the company does have good differentiation as it leverages on the fast growing Indian consumer growth story.The company sells Lingerie though top retail outlets like Lifestyle,Shopper's Stop in top Indian metros and has good brand recall.Here are the positives and negatives of the company based on its DRHP.
February 14, 2011
Fineotex Chemicals (FCL) is a Maharashtra based small chemicals company which is coming out with an IPO for 4.2 million shares at Rs 60-72 to raise Rs 25-30 crores with a total market cap of around Rs 42-50 crores.The company has a 5000 tons plant and is expanding by 13000 tons.The company has little resources by way of cash and it seems strange that a Rs 15 crore company would raise money from the capital markets rather than raising more debt which seems low at around Rs 80 lakhs.Can't find much to say anything positive except that there are no lawsuits pending against the promoters.Here are the negatives.
Omkar Specialty Chemicals was a major disaster for all the investors who decided to gamble on small cap IPO junk.Gambling on FCL in this environment does not make any sense,would make more sense to gamble your money in a casino.In this market you would have a much better chance of returns.
December 6, 2010
Here Honda which is a Joint Venture between Japanese Automajor Honda and the Hero Group of India is restructuring such that Honda will exit the JV.Note Hero Honda has been immensely successful over the last 2 years riding a vehicle boom in India.While other autos stocks like Mahindra,Tata Motors have risen a lot,Hero Honda has been the star with its leading marketshare in the motorcycle market of India.The terms of the deal in which Honda will sell its 26% stake in the company to the Hero Group is very damaging to minority investors in the JV.According to the deal proposed by the Hero Group and accepted in principle by Honda,the Hero Group will get the 26% at a sharp discount from its market price and in return Honda will get much higher royalties for the next 3 years.This is an open and blatant looting of the minority investors.Note the beneficiaries of this deal will be the promoters at the expense of minority investors since they will have to bear the burden of much higher royalties in the future.
December 4, 2010
Ravi Kumar Distilleries (RKDL) is another low quality company coming out with an IPO to take advantage of the current bullish conditions of the Indian Stock Market.It is not the first junk IPO nor is going to be the last ,it is an addition to the list of low quality companies which have given huge losses to investor unfortunate enough to subscrible.Note more than 50% of the companies coming out with an IPO over the last year are trading well below issue price.Recent Stock Market Scandals show the complicity of market operators,shady promoters and compromised financial institutions.Note the other recent IPOs by the investment banker for RKDL IPO have resulted in massive losses for investors.It would take a miracle for this one to prove a success.Ravi Kumar Distilleries (RKDL), plans to raise Rs 74 crore through its Initial Public Offer (IPO) and has fixed the price-band at between Rs 56-64 per share for the issue.Here are some of the main features of the IPO