Manufacturing
January 18, 2012
First Solar the Big Daddy of Thin FIlm Solar Panels too is under pressure and if not for the DOE funded solar farms in California would have been facing a huge global marketshare loss. There are only a few thin film companies that can hope to compete . Those that can have big parents with massive balance sheets like Solar Frontier backed by Showa and Shell, Sharp ,TSMC and others . VC and PE backed startups have a snowball chance in hell of surviving because they need to get their costs to 50c/watt an impossibility even for First Solar leave alone poor startups.
January 16, 2012
Germany has seen the biggest increase in solar installations in the history of solar energy with 3 GW in the month of December 2011 alone. For perspective this is almost equal to the installed capacity of the Chinese solar energy which has almost 6-7 times as much electricity generating capacity . The returns are still high in 2012 with existing FIT , so the German government may have to plan additional cuts with plans of
a) cut of 2% FIT every month in 2012 to slow down the installations and bring down the solar system IRR
b) a cap on feed in tariffs to solar systems of 3 kilowatts only .This will prevent larger solar installations and building of large solar farms
January 14, 2012
How Chinese Module Makers will use the Taiwanese Cell Producers to Circumvent US Anti-Dumping Policy
The USA and China are locked in a bitter tiff over solar panel imports from China. Note Solarworld filed a petition with the ITC which in all probability will put an anti-dumping duty on Chinese solar modules. Other countries whose solar panel producers have been swamped by the super cheap Solar Panel imports too are thinking of special custom duties. However the big Tier 1 Chinese solar panel makers are not sitting idle . They have already come out with strategies to circumvent the US Solar Panel Duties if they are imposed .
January 11, 2012
China's solar market growth has hit the rocket phase in late 2011 with the announcement of the long awaited national Feed in Tariff . Many of the Chinese utilties have set up large solar farms utilizing the cheap solar panels produced by Chinese solar panel companies. Note Chinese solar companies are the dominant players in the world having almost killed the western solar industry in the last couple of years. With cheap costs and massive government support, China is almost ruling the solar industry globally . In the domestic Chinese market they have even a bigger advantage given the local home conditions and preference of domestic companies . Note China become home to the biggest wind turbine companies when China enacted the domestic content requirements in 2006. With the solar industry , the Chinese government does not need this law as its companies already possess massive advantages over the foreign competition.
January 11, 2012
Green Jobs in India is going to grow at a high double digit rate driven by the Real Estate and Construction Industry. The hiring will be done by Real Estate Companies in India looking for Energy Efficiency and Green Building professionals. Note the Green Industry globally has had a torrid 2011 with most of the major sectors like wind, solar, biofuels and lighting facing oversupply amidst slowing demand due to global macro problems. However the Green Industry has a great fturue driven by secular drivers like
January 10, 2012
The Indian Desert State of Rajasthan in the West which borders Pakistan is planning to set up four gigawatt scale solar parks in 4 districts of Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Bikaner and Barmer. Note under the first 2 phase of JNNSM , Rajasthan has got the lion's share of the solar farms being constructed. The reasons why Rajasthan has managed to corner 80% of the JNSSM solar projects is because
a) Solar Radiation is the highest in the country
b) Land is cheap and plentiful in the state with the government literally given them for free to solar developers. A huge plus in a country where land acquisition is a big industrial problem
c) Support from the government
January 10, 2012
The massive solar panel glut has not only caused Western solar companies to go bankrupt but has also caused mayhem in the Chinese solar panel industry.Many of the smaller companies have seen their utilization go down to 35% or lower with many of the others shutting down their production entirely.There are hundreds of small solar companies in China which started during the 2010 boom when global solar demand increased by more than 150% . However their small scale of operatoins and lack of brand power means that they are bearing the brunt. While the large Chinese solar panel producers have seen their utilization go down , most will survive given the support from Chinese Banks. For example LDK despite its more than $3 billion in debt and losses is still getting loans from Chinese Development Bank. But the smaller Chines OEM panel makers don't have the government sugar daddy behind them.
January 9, 2012
Solar Trade Wars are becoming the norm in the globe these days with the major one between USA and China.The instigator is the German solar company Solarworld which helped started the ITC Case in the USA.India too is thinking of putting some kind of import duty to protect its domestic solar panel producers which are dropping like flies.Chinese solar panel producers have swamped the world with super cheap solar modules.Though a part of their low prices can be explained by competitive advantage, another part is due to the labor,capital subsidy given by the Chinese government.It would not take a rocket scientist to say that some of the biggest Chinese solar companies are insolvent and would be dead within a month without Chinese state loans.
January 9, 2012
Solar Power in India is growing by leaps and bounds with the federal and state governments heavily promoting solar energy production.India is set to become a gigawatt market in 2012 with around 400 MW already installed by 2011.The ancillary industries around the main solar power market are set to grow at a rapid clip as well.One of the unlikely sectors in solar products in India is the growth of solar cables.Note solar power plants require a lot of wire and cabling to connect thousands of solar panels to each other and to solar inverters.Besides solar power plants also require interconnection with the power grid.While today most of the solar cable is imported from outside,there is potential for a solar cable manufacturer to build a domestic capacity as well given the rapid growth expected in solar power.
January 7, 2012
The German Solar Energy Market is biggest in the world and has installed the largest number of solar panels for the last few years.2012 promises to be no different with Germany again set to the biggest solar market for solar panel manufacturers though Italy would give good competition.The German Solar Subsidy program has been the best in the world unlike the start and stop feed in tariff programs of Spain,Czech,UK,Australia and other places.A stable step in cut of feed in tariffs has helped solar energy prices coming down by more than 50% in the last few years though demand has only increased.
January 6, 2012
LDK Solar is one of the most insolvent companies in the world right now with billions of dollars in debt,a battered balance sheet,continuing losses and dodgy accounting.However LDK has acquired a German company Sunways and continues to build new solar power plants as the Chinese state owned banks continue to fund it with cheap money without any consideration about losing their investments.LDK has become the poster boy of the Solarworld complaint against Chinese solar panel producers as it continues to run and thrive despite being insolvent.The Chinese government is hurting itself and its other solar companies like Trina,Yingle which are more competitive by continuing to support and increase the global glut of cheap solar panels.These solar panels are being clearly sold at below cost as most of the companies would be bankrupt without these absurd loans which make no free market sense
January 5, 2012
China has announced a new solar subsidy for BIPV systems of 9 Yuan per Watt ($1.4/watt) and CNY 7/watt for PV systems for home.Note China has already become a top 5 market in the world in 2011 after announcing a $1.15/kwh Feed in Tariff for utility scale solar power instalations.This new subsidy by the Chinese ministry of finance should boost the home and commercial segment.Note China had recently raised the target of solar energy to 15 GW by 2015 from 10 GW as solar energy has grown amazingly fast in the recent past.
January 5, 2012
Pakistan is a energy deficit country like most other South Asian countries with inadequate investment in the electricity sector and the distribution infrastructure.The cause of the energy crisis in the country is due to massive corruption and misgovernance , a theme which will be familiar to citizens of India as well.Pakistan has been looking at investments from the Chinese power companies in the hydro and wind sectors to boost electricity generation.However these investments take time and some may never come to fruition.However Pakistanis are now turning towards cheap Chinese solar panels to beat the high electricity tariffs and dependence on expensive diesel generators and UPS systems.
January 4, 2012
JNNSM Phase 2 recieved almsot 8 times the bids with 2500 MW worth of bids out of which around 350 MW was selected for providing Feed in Tarifffs with the average tariff of Rs 8.77 or 17.5c/Kwh .Note India's execution record has not been great with only 400 MW solar capacity reached in 2011 against a target of more than 1000 MW.However weaker and unknown players have gone out of this business and the winners this time look more likely to construct these solar power plants.No doubt a massive glut of solar panels in the world with prices as low as 80-90c/watt helping .Compare that to prices of solar panels which were more than $2/watt last time.
January 4, 2012
Smaller Polysilicon producers with small sizes and higher costs are going bust almost everyday.With poly prices falling below $30/kg even bigger producers with inefficient plants like MEMC have been forced to curtain capacity.The smaller poly producers with 2000-3000 tons capacity have virtually no future.With poly expansion still taking place by big producers even in an oversupplied market the small fish are having the capitulate.
January 3, 2012
Solar Power in India has been growing at a rapid clip due to a number of favorable factors
1) Big Energy Deficit
2) Lots of Sulight
3) Falling prices of Solar Panels
4) Favorable government subsidies.
Indian Solar Power Capacity in 2012
Many of the small firms have been weeded out and the developers and banks have got some experience in this new solar industry.Expect 2012 to be much better and expect at leas a doubling of the solar power capacity as both phase 1 and phase 2 winners in JNNSM complete projects.Rajasthan,Gujarat and Karnataka state subsidies should also see some projects being complted
Solar Power Capacity in India in 2012 should be around 1 GW which is not bad and will make it one of the top 10 Solar Markets in the world.
January 2, 2012
Note Chinese companies too would have shut down but the state owned Chinese banks are keeping them alive with loans at ridiculous interest rates.LDK which is buying Sunways is almost insolvent as well with its convertibles trading at less than 50c on the dollar in Singapore.It has more than n$3 billion in debt compared to its market cap of around $600 million.It faces massive losses in the coming qtrs and can't serve the interest payments much less expand.The strong support of the Chinese government for its green companies is keeping them alive.Chinese solar panels have become super cheap due to companies selling at below cost and massive scale.Note all the cheap solar panel brands in the world are Chinese with the exception of First Solar and some Asians.
LDK has managed to spend 22 million Euros despite burning hundred of millions of dollars in cash because it has got the Chinese government trillions backing it.So while Western companies burn and crash,the big crony Chinese companies can expand and acquire.
Most of the German solar manufacturing industry is finished and it is unlikely that except a couple of them like SM Solar or Wacker will live to see 2013.Q-Cells too should go bankrupt or get consolidated .Note despite European companies shifting factories to Asia ,they just can't compete.Some of the smaller module makers with 20 MW plants have seen huge losses with the equipment not selling for 10 cents on the dollar
January 2, 2012
Ladakh,one of the most beautiful hilly regions lying near the Chinese border has one of the highest potentials in generating solar power in India.Note under JNNSM,India is targeting more than 20 GW in the next 10 years and already large solar farms are coming in the desert areas of Rajasthan and Gujarat.However,Indian policy has mostly neglected the less inhabited region of Ladakh.Most of the policy initiatives have been low key in nature and mostly to provide the region with off grid solar power,solar cookers and solar lights.What has been missed is to build massive solar panel farms and connecting them with a transmission line to the power hungry states of the North.Just like Himachal Pradesh has become a masssive hydro power exporting state,Ladakh can do the same trick with solar power.
Solar Panel prices have fallen by 50% in 2011 and now solar energy can be profitably be generate at Rs 7/kwh.While this is more expensive than coal at Rs 4/kwh,the thing to be remembered is that this power value is constant for 25 years and it has no coal disadvantages which kills thousands each year.Also it increases Indias 'energy security and reduce imports of expensive coal.It also will provide more employment and generate economic value internally beside supporting the Indian construction and EPC companies.
August 16, 2011
Sharp is the largest solar company in the world by revenues and has been so for the last few years despite massively increasing competition from Chinese Solar Panel Producers.While other Japanese conglomerates like Sanyo,Mitsubishi and Kyocera have substantially lost solar panel marketshare ,Sharp has managed to retain its leadership position.Though companies like First Solar and Suntech have shipped more solar modules than Sharp,in terms of total dollar sales Sharp is still on top.Sharp which used to make polycrystalline and monocrystalline silicon solar panels has diversified into producing thin film amorphous silicon solar panels.The company has also entered the solar IPP and solar development business in collaboration with Enel Green Power and by acquiring a US Solar Developer Recurrent Energy.However in core solar panel production,Sharp has much higher costs and has lost money consistently.Sharp sells Solar Systems and Solar Inverters as well as Solar Modules.However the challenges in the solar market are considerable with well funded low cost competitors from China and South Korea.Sharp faces the toughest years of its solar history as it fights to survive in this cut throat Solar Market
August 14, 2011
Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) is integrating of photovoltaic modules into the building envelope such as roofs or windows.These solid-state devices are used to replace conventional building materials to generate electricity out of sunlight with no maintenance and help in fighting global warming as the produce no pollution.BIPV products are most useful in construction of new buildings as an ancillary source of electrical power, although existing you can retrofit old buildings with BIPV proudcts as well. The advantage of BIPV over normal standard PV panels is that they integrate into the buildings instead of sticking out leading some people to call it ugly.ALso they help in saving the amount of money spent on building materials and labor that would normally be used to construct the part of the building . These advantages make BIPV one of the fastest growing segments of the photovoltaic industry with some people estimating that the use of BIPV will increase at more than 50% annually over the next few years with more than 1 GW of BIPV modules installed in the last year.
August 1, 2011
BIPV is the acronym for Building Integrated Photovoltaics which means the integration of photovoltaic materials into building structures such as roofs,windows and facades.It not only replaces the building supplies but also generate electricity creating a killer green product.This is one of the fastest growing segment in the solar industry and it has been estimated that almost 6-7% of the solar industry is made of BIPV products.A wide variety of technologies and products are being used in creating BIPV products.Though a large number of big solar panel manufactures like Suntech,Yingli,Canadian Solar have come out with BIPV Panels and Products,the segment has not become as big mainly because of higher costs vis a vis the standard crystalline solar systems.There are also specialized BIPV suppliers such as Ascent Solar and Konarka whose products are more suited to the BIPV Industry than the normal module industry.Some of these suppliers have no option as their technology is no longer competitive with the Chinese solar panel producers.Solyndra had a niche product which could be used in rooftops with ease of installation and low weight.However the high costs drove it to bankruptcy.The next leg up to the BIPV industry should come up with more BIPV products from the Major Solar Companies and as cost of solar silicon decline further with scale and innovation
July 22, 2011
CEEG or China Electric Equipment Group Corporation is based in Nanjing, China and is a China state owned company.Chinese Solar Panels have captured more than 50% of the global market for crystalline solar panels and the biggest solar panel producers are from China.CEEG is one of the top 15 Chinese solar module manfacturers and sells solar panels under the CEEG Brand.Like its name implies the CEEG Group has a major presnse in the electrical equipment market and 3 of its 4 divisions operate in this segment.The company is also listed on the NASDAQ under the CSUN symbol alongwith a host of other Chinese panel producers like Trina,Yingli,Suntech,Canadian Solar and others.CEEG’s power transformers and PV products have been qualified for CCC, UL and EU certifications.It recently lanuched the Quasar range of high efficiency solar panels.In 2004, CEEG got engaged in the PV industry and established China Sunergy (formerly CEEG Nanjing PV-Tech Co., Ltd).CEEG has 4 solar panel production factories and 600 MW of production capacity.CEEG was originally a solar cell producer and seller before getting into the manufacture of solar panels in 2009 though acquistions of 2 small solar module producers.
July 15, 2011
Phono Solar is a JV between Phono Technologies Switzerland and Sumec Group of China.Phono’s parent company SUMEC Group has been in the PV industry from early 2004. Sumec and Sinomach family of companies claim to have $15 billion in revenues each year.SUMEC Group Corporation (SUMEC), founded in 1978, is a key member of China National Machinery Industry Corporation (SINOMACH).SUMEC’s core business consists of shipbuilding and project contracting of complete equipment and engineering; the R&D, manufacturing and export of machinery and electric products including power tools, garden tools, power machinery
Phono Solar’s three production facilities will produce more than 500MW of PV Modules in 2011.The products are widely used in many fields such as power station, telecom, transportation, lightening, broadcasting, civil defense, marine etc.The company's products are made in China and marketed by the Swiss company under the Phono Solar Brand.The Company also sells micro wind turbines which are used in small residential installations.
July 8, 2011
Solar Panels are fast becoming one of the fastest growing products for homes in the western world driven by the 75-80% reduction in the costs of solar panels in the last 3 years.The sharp reduction in the costs of solar panels has been driven by the improvement in efficiency of solar panels,increase in scale by Chinese solar panel manufacturers,solar equipment sophistication and advancements in the learning curveAlso the importance of Solar Energy keeps growing with the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster,Coal Mine Deaths,BP Oil Spill constantly reminding us the dangers of Coal,Oil and Nuclear Energy.On the other hand Solar Panels lead to no deaths directly or indirectly and are incapable of causing large scale disasters..Solar Panels these days are being made by a wide variety of manufacturers in different shapes and sizes.Different types of solar panels are also being made from different materials like silicon,CIGs,CdTe etc.Solar Panels are also finding uses in outdoor camping,boats,swimming pools,solar carports etc.Besides solar panels are also being used to power off grid systems in far off areas plus mobile phones and laptops.The advantages and uses of solar panels are growing by the day.Solar Power's greatest advantage is the declining cost which had made solar electricity from panels on par with grid retail electricity prices in places like Italy and Germany.With costs continuing to go down,its easy to see that solar panel generated power will reach the electricity prices in most places in the world in 2-3 years.
July 8, 2011
GE is one of the biggest companies in the world and has one of the biggest Green businesses as well.GE is the most profitable wind turbine manufacturer and is one of the largest renewable energy developers in the globe as well.GE like other electrical and power conglomerates like Siemens has decided to invest billions of dollars into Green Energy.Till recently Solar Energy had gotten scant attention from GE just like Siemens too has not invested a lot.However the 50% CAGR rates of Solar Energy,the fast declining costs have made it imperative for GE to have a presence in this market.GE had bought a thin film solar company Prime Solar a few years ago to acquire the Cadmium Tellerium Technology which First Solar uses in its Solar Panels.
July 8, 2011
Sunlink Solar Panels are manufactured by a small company Jiangsu Sunlink PV Technology Co,.Ltd based out of China with module production capacity of 200MW.Note there are many Chinese companies of this size and a major shakeout is occuring in the industry with a number of smaller companies shutting down their production solar panel lines as prices have gone down by 40% amidst a solar module inventory glut.Some US based solar panel producers like Evergreen and Solyndra have gone out of business and many others are on the verge like Arisa Technologies.SunLink PVwas founded in 2004 and they sell 5W to 300W both monocrystalline and polycrystalline panels.They have IEC61215 Ed.2, IEC61730, UL1703 certificates.
July 8, 2011
Renewable Energy Corporation (REC ) is one of the biggest European solar companies and is completely vertically integrated.What that means is that REC makes all the components in the crystalline silicon supply chain from polysilicon to wafers to cells and modules.REC was earlier primarily a polysilicon and wafer producer but it is not becoming more active in the solar panels area.REC Silicon and REC Wafer are among the world's largest producers of polysilicon and wafers, respectively, for solar applications.This is the reason that REC solar panels are in general cheaper than other European and Japanese solar panels like Solarworld,Sharp,Kyocera and others.Due to the high cost of production,REC has shut down its factories in Norway and is mainly producing solar cells and solar modules at its new solar complex in Singapore.REC Solar has production facilities around the globe but it is concentrating its production in Asian factories.Despite stiff competition from Chinese solar panels which has led to bankruptcy of numerous solar companies in the West,REC is well capitalized and should be one of the survivors of the current solar price wars.As such the warranty on the solar panels from REC should hold good for the 25 years.
July 8, 2011
JA Solar is the biggest solar cell producer in the world with more than 2000 MW of silicon cell capacity.The company has one of the lowest costs in processing of solar cells from solar wafers.The company is primarily a supplier of solar cells to most solar panel producers in Europe and Asia.However the sharp fall in solar panel prices in 2011 has resulted in most of the European companies shutting shop which has meant that JA Solar has faced a large loss in customer orders for its solar cells.Unlike its peer Trina and Yingli Solar,JA Solar does not have a good brand name or distribution of solar panels.It is more of a upstream supplier of solar products to solar comapnies rather than a end distributor of solar panels.JA Solar has diversified into making solar panels of its own and in partnership with other companies.Having a strong presence in the end market has become essential to survive in the cutthroad solar market.
July 7, 2011
NB Solar Sun Earth or SunEarth Solar Panels is the Brand of Solar Panels sold by Chinese Ningbo based manufacturer of monocrystalline and polycrystalline solar modules Sun-Earth.It has 4 facilities for silicon (3000 tons polysilicon plant), wafers (40 MW ), solar components and solar system production.The company has been in the solar industry for 45 years which would make it one of the oldest solar companies in the world.However it seems to have been left far behind in terms of capacity with only 350 MW in 2009.Sun-Earth is a major supplier of solar systems to telecom towers in China and portable solar systems to Africa.It claims to have supplied to utility grade systems in Spain as well.However it does not have much of a brand name compared to listed Chinese solar companies like Trina Solar,Yingli or Suntech.It is a Tier 2 Supplier of Solar Panels like CEEG Solar and BYD Solar Panels.Therefore its solar panel prices would be much lower than that of the Tier 1 solar panel suppliers.In these times of oversupply of solar panels when even the bigger producers like Canadian Solar are operating at razon thin margins,companies like Sun-Earth would be facing survivability questions.So you have to do your due diligence before buying solar panels from small solar panel companies as they might not exist to serve the 25 year performance warranty on their solar panels.
July 7, 2011
Solar Panels have recently become a point of trade friction between USA and China as a massive oversupply of solar panels has resulted in the prices of solar panels dropping by almost 50% in one year.This has caused great distress amongst solar panel manufacturers in the USA particularly the high cost ones which have been forced to close.Falling prices of solar panels are great news for customers but bad news for the producers of these solar panels.Now US and European companies are selling their solar panels advertising their "made in USA" credentials.This is to help them sell the solar panels which cost more but according to them have better quality and appeal to the patriotism of the Americans.Note the 2009 Economic Stimulus which promoted renewable energy had in fact "Buy American" provisions as well as the defense law passed in 2011.This means that a small part of the solar market is reserved for US Solar Panel Manufacturers who are being besieged by the low cost Chinese solar panel producers around the world.In fact Photovoltaic Module player Solarworld (which is German) is spearheading an effort to pass anti-dumping duties against the import of Chinese based panels.So which companies have "Made in USA" label.The surprising thing is that many of the solar companies are in fact foreign mostly European and Japanese though there are a native US companies as well.Note the most successful US Solar Companies First Solar and Sunpower (now Total) have always had the majority of their production outside the US in Asia.