Solar Stocks To Keep Yo-Yoing Till China Allows Free Market Capitalism In The Industry

20 Dec, 2012 by
China,Solar Energy

Introduction

The whole solar industry has been facing a massive overcapacity problem since the beginning of 2011. Thousands of solar companies have gone bankrupt, but the solar glut has yet to resolve itself. The biggest solar companies continue to reduce capacity and fire thousands in order to adjust to the “new normal”. China is particularly vulnerable as the country has a huge solar manufacturing base with an estimated 400,000 people being directly employed by the industry. The prospects of sanctions by the EU has sent chills down the spines of the biggest solar panel companies – Yingli Solar (NYSE: YGE), Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) and Suntech (NYSE: STP). The reason is that China exported almost 20 billion euros worth of solar panels to Europe in 2011.

Why Global Solar Panel Wars are occurring

The rapid decline in costs achieved by the major China companies has thrown the business models of other solar companies in a complete disarray. Chinese solar majors not only managed to drastically decrease the cost of making solar panels, but also expanded capacity at an exponential rate. This has led to a situation that despite the rapid growth in global demand, the industry is facing a massive oversupply of solar modules. Western Countries annoyed by the decimation of their solar industry and jobs have retaliated by either imposing or planning to impose duties on Chinese solar panels imports. Many countries and regions have also tried to protect their nascent solar manufacturers through domestic content rules. These have become contentious issues with Japan and China complaining to the WTO. Read more about the how global solar panel wars have panned out till date.

Past actions on the Diplomatic Front by China

China has been proactively trying to help its solar industry due to the fear of what would happen if the 400,000 jobs in the solar industry disappeared all of a sudden. The industry had become bloated mainly due to the heavy subsidies given by the local Chinese government and banks. Now with capacity almost double that of global demand, the whole industry is sick. The glut of Chinese solar panels has made the other governments angry as thousands of western solar manufacturers have shut down with many of them making media headlines such as Solyndra, Q-Cells, Abound Solar, Evergreen Solar etc. The Chinese Government instead of reducing its support has been fighting through measures like:

a) Protesting about the subsidies given by the US government to the cleantech industry.

b) Filing a case against Europe in WTO about the local domestic content requirements for solar panels by Italy and Greece.

c) Starting an anti dumping case against polysilicon imports as it tries to leverage all its cards. However the problems have kept on growing with India planning to impose duties on imports of cheap solar panelsto protect its dying domestic makers like Tata Power, Indosolar, Websol and others.

New Chinese Moves being Planned

1) Increase Chinese Solar Capacity Target from 21 to 40 GW target by 2015 - China is proposing to drastically increase the domestic installations from around 21 GW by 2014 to 40 GW. This would mean that almost 7-8 GW of solar panel capacity would be installed each year till 2015 giving a lifeline to the beleaguered domestic firms reeling from huge overcapacity and underutilization. It would benefit the biggest solar module companies like Yingli , JA Solar (JASO), LDK and Suntech who have a substantial presence in the domestic market.

2) Polysilicon duties of 30-50% on imports of polysilicon - The Chinese government may impose the AD duties before imposition on European duties. This will help its polysilicon producers 90% of which have already closed down. Only a few companies like GCL, Daqo (NYSE: DQ), Renesola (NYSE: SOL) are producing poly at this point, that too at 50% utilization even as poly imports have surged. This won’t have a big impact on consumers of poly as prices are expected to go to $18-20/kg from $15/kg now which would add at most 3c/watt cost for the overall modules. Note LDK has completely stopped production despite having a 17000 ton capacity.

3) Doubled outlay for Golden Sun Program - Recent reports indicate that China has added almost $1 billion in support under the Golden Sun Program with subsidies going to 100 solar panel makers and developers to urgently boost the cash strapped companies.

4) Bank Support - Chinese banks are an extension of the government and give credit based on government diktat rather than profitability. They continue to support bankrupt companies and are giving even bigger loans to solar companies despite western criticism. Jinko Solar, the 7th biggest module supplier got a $1 billion credit line from CDB.

Which Stocks are the Worst Affected

Chinese solar stocks for the most part trade together as a group and its very hard to pick winners and losers on a sustained basis. However during the last year , the extended downturn has led to a sharp decline in the worst performers such as

1) LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) - The company with a debt of more than $3 billion and book value of less than $50 million is in the worst shape of all the Chinese solar stocks. I have already reviewed their problems in an earlier post of how they have stopped polysilicon production completely and is firing thousands each quarter. The company is trying to raise more debt to restart operations but outlook looks bleak.

2) Suntech (NYSE: STP) - Suntech Power is the second worst stock in the group and has been spending time in pennydom for the last few months as news of a fraud has made the company lose millions of dollars at a time when it can barely afford to lose even a penny.

The other Chinese solar stocks have also declined as well but they are not in the dire straits as the two discussed above. The best performers have been companies with low debt ratio, low costs and with good operations management eg. Renesola and Jinko. The better solar stocks have also outperformed as the market has started pricing in bankruptcy for the worst companies.

Summary

There is no free market capitalism in the solar industry which has resulted in such a deep and prolonged downturn in the industry. The excesses are not going away and the weaker players (LDK, Suntech) continue to survive due to government largesse. The Chinese government continues to prolong the pain by giving billions of dollars in subsidies preventing the industry from returning to a healthy demand supply balance. The recent Chinese moves have led to a temporary rally in stocks. But a sustained up move is difficult unless the noncompetitive capacity and players are removed from the market. That will only happen if the Chinese government stops giving handouts and bailouts. Till then the Chinese solar stocks will keep moving like a yo-yo.

Read about Cheap Solar Panels.

Mage Solar Panel Review of Warranty, Price for Sale

3 Dec, 2012 by
Solar Panels

US Solar Panel Manufacturers have been under siege from cheap Chinese solar panel imports leading to a closure of a number of solar module factories. Small and big solar companies have been facing difficulties and some like Solyndra, Abound Solar have sought protection in Chapter 11. Even established companies like Evergreen Solar have been forced into closing their factories as they were simply unable to compete with the cutthroat module prices from China, Taiwan and other Asian countries. The US Government recently imposed duties on imports of Chinese made solar panels to even out the field for US Solar module maker. However it remains to be seen whether this helps the small US solar panel makers like Mage Solar given that Chinese companies have a massive cost advantage over Western solar companies.

Mage Solar USA

MAGE SOLAR USA is a  Georgia based solar panel manufacturer which was founded in 2007 in Germany and started operations in USA in 2009. Mage Solar AG is a 100 per cent subsidiary of Mage Industries Holding AG of Germany. The company sells solar panels for  residential, commercial, agricultural and utility scale applications. Mage Solar is a subsidiary of the MAGE GROUP which has a presence in  20 countries across four major business sectors worldwide. Mage Solar is active in the USA, Italy, France, Czech Republic, Turkey, China, Benelux countries, Spain, Slovakia, Great Britain, Greece, North Africa, Australia and Middle East. In March 2011 the company began to manufacture modules at its US location.

Mage Powertec Plus Solar Panels

The company sells solar panels under the MAGE  POWERTEC PLUS brandname. The company assembles the solar panels in the US and can take advantage of the “Buy American” provisions Mage Solar sells 6 different solar panels which are listed below

The company sells both polycrystalline and monocrystalline silicon solar panels in the 235 to 250 watt range. The Mage 250 watt solar panels are made of monocrystalline silicon cells which have higher efficiency than the normal multicrystalline silicon cells which are used in the lower watt solar panels. The company has also introduced an AC module which comes with an inbuilt microinverter.

The company also sells solar inverters and solar mounting systems under the Mage SystemTec brandname.

Mage Solar Warranty

Mage Solar gives a 10-year product warranty and a 30-year 80% performance guarantee. The company gives a 90% performance warranty for the first 12 years which decreases to 80% for the next 10 years. The company  has a Underwrites Lab certification and is also ARRA-compliant.

Mage SystemTec Mounting Systems

Mage Solar sells  mouthing systems under the MAGE SYSTEMTEC brandname which can be used  wide array of pitched roofing applications, including asphalt shingles, roof tile or metal roofs.

Mage Solar Inverters

The company does not manufacture solar inverters on its own but sources them from solar inverter producers such as Fronius, SMA and SolarBridge. SolarBridge makes microinverters which are used in its AC modules.

Mage Solar Panel Prices

The prices of Mage Solar Panels are higher than that of Chinese solar panels because the modules are assembled in the US which leads to higher costs and higher prices. There is no one pricing given the dynamic nature of solar panel pricing and depends on volumes as well. However with duties on imports of Chinese made solar modules, Mage Solar Panels are more competitive though they are still priced higher. Note currently top rated solar panels from the biggest companies like Trina Solar Panels are sold in Chinese factories for as low as 70c/watt which means just $175 for a 250 watt solar panel.

Mage Solar Academy

Mage Solar has started a solar training academy which makes it quite unique amongst solar panel makers. The company offers lectures and practical training on the following topics

  • Solar PV 101 – Entry Level (40 hours)
  • Advanced Solar Business & Technical Sales (40 hours)
  • NABCEP Installer Exam Prep 801 (16 hours)
  • Fundamentals of Solar Business & Technical Sales (8 hours)
  • PV Field Inspectors 302 (8 hours)
  • Real Estate & Insurance 301 (8 hours)
  • Electrical Grounding & Bonding 401 (8 hours)
  • Solar Civics 701 (3 hours)
  • OSHA 10 (10 hours)
  • OSHA 30 (30 hours)

Source : http://www.magesolar.com/us/mage_solar/mage_solar_academy.html

 

 

Top 12 Solar Companies in USA still surviving the brutal downturn

19 Nov, 2012 by
Solar Energy,USA

USA Solar Companies surviving the Downturn

The Solar Industry has seen a massive shakedown with hundreds of bankruptcies and thousands of jobs lost. There has been no solar energy company which has been left unaffected by this brutal consolidation. Even the biggest solar panel manufacturers have seen huge losses and restructuring. The biggest solar companies are now trading in pennies and some like Q-Cells have become footnotes. USA too has seen its share of tragic shutdowns like Solyndra, Abound Solar, Evergreen Solar etc. Some others like Sunpower, Ascent Solar, Miasole have been bought by foreign companies. The companies which have thrived under the Chinese panel oversupply condition are the solar installers and integrators who have benefited from falling PV system prices. Solar City has been the fastest growing big solar company in the US thanks to aggressive expansion and good management. Here we list out the top.

Solar Installers

1. Sungevity - Sungevity is a California company targeting the residential market through a solar leasing plan. It extensively uses the Internet to design the system and has a JV with US Bank to provide financing to its customers.

2. SolarCity - SolarCity is a full-service solar provider for commercial and residential customers and does solar power system design, financing, installation and monitoring services from a single source. SolarCity is introduced  a new solar lease option, called SolarLease. It also has other options like PPA. The company’s footprint extends to Arizona, California, Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas and Washington D.C.

3. SunRun – SunRun is one of the newer solar installation and solar financing companies that target the residential market mainly. The company is present mainly in the Western  part of USA operating in 7 states Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. The company uses a PPA model to sell solar systems and has partnered with a number of pure play solar installers.

4. Verengo Solar - The company also provides solar financing solutions and is present in the California market.

5. Borrego Solar - The company is similar to Verengo Solar but mainly concentrates on the commercial market. The company signed a deal with Chinese solar panel producer Yingli for procuring solar panels. The company is headquartered in California like most others.

Solar Raw Material Companies

1. MEMC/ Sunedison- The only big American solar wafer producer left is also one of the biggest manufacturers of semi wafers. The company has sharply reduced its wafer production despite a new factory in Malaysia as prices are below costs. The company’s majority sales now come from the solar installation/ development division of Sunedison now. The company has also closed down most of its polysilicon production due to low prices. MEMC is strongly expanding the system installation business not only in the US but other parts of the world like India, Europe, Korea, Canada and other places. The company recently installed one of the biggest solar plants in the world in Rovigo, Italy.

2. Hemlock Semiconductor (HSG) - This a a privately held company which is a JV between Shin-Etsu Handotai, Dow  Corning and Mitsubishi. Hemlock has the largest poly production capacity in the world and has been trying to rapidly raise capacity to meet growing solar demands. However it has not grown fast enough.

Solar Panel Manufacturers

1. First Solar – First Solar is the only Solar Thin Film Manufacturer in the world and a benchmark for other thin film companies thinking of making it big. The company was promoted by Wal-Mart promoters and has seen remarkable growth in the last few. This US based company uses Cadmium Tellurium (Cd-Te) Technology and  is the lowest cost panel producer in the world today if you don’t include any penalty for low efficiency. Even if you penalize the Cd-Te Technology for its lower efficiency vis-a-vis the higher efficiency crystalline technology, First Solar is clearly the leader with a core cost of 74c/watt. The company has a roadmap of reducing the cost to 52c/watt by 2014 and given its track record it seems quite achievable. There is little doubt about First Solar’s ability to survive and flourish due to its massive first mover advantage.

2. Sunpower – Sunpower is a vertically integrated solar energy company known more for its highest efficiency solar panels. The company bought Powerlight a few years ago to enter the solar systems market and has bolstered the business constantly to become a major global installer. Sunpower is present in all 3 segments of the solar systems business namely a) residential b) commercial and c) utility. It is one of the largest US installers and has recently won a number of large utility contracts for building solar farms.

Solar Thermal / CSP Company

1. Brightsource Energy - Solar Thermal Startup Brightsource Energy has managed to raise $500 million in multiple rounds of financing from top PE firms as well as Alstom.The company is building its first plant at Ivanpah which has got the backing of the US government. The  Ivanpah plant got a further boost when NRG Energy,USA’s largest renewable energy utility invested $300 million of its money into the plant.Brightsource Energy  seems to have a brighter future with its unique CSP technology. Also with backers like Alstom and Bechtel,it has the heavy engineering support to construct the massive 392 MW plant.

2. eSolar – eSolar is one of the most exciting startups in the US Solar Technology.The company uses a unique Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Technology which utilizes small, flat mirrors which track the sun with high precision and reflect the sun’s heat to a tower-mounted receiver, which boils water to create steam. This steam powers a traditional turbine and generator to produce solar electricity.The comany has won contracts to build its CSP plants in USA,Greece and China.

Solar Inverter Companies

Power-One - The US power management company has shown the fastest growth in 2012 and has increased its marketshare to around 13% to become the No.2 global player. Power-One is mainly concentrated in Europe and is now expanding to Asia and its home market of USA.The company despite job losses looks a survivor despite strong completion from China. One of the few big inverter players left after Satcon bankruptcy.

Solyndra rises from the Dead to Sue the Chinese Government, Banks and Solar Companies for its Death

26 Oct, 2012 by
Solar Energy

Solyndra

Solyndra which is one of the worst solar bankruptcies in recent time; and caused a major media backlash against Green Energy and the Obama Administration, is back. The thin film solar company which raised more than a billion dollars from private investors and the Government, met an ignominious end some time back. It also lost upwards of $500 million in taxpayer money which it had borrowed to build a CIGs solar panel factory. The company’s founder and DOE came under Congressional investigation on possible wrong doing. Now Solyndra’s lawyers are suing the who’s who of the Chinese Government and solar industry for causing the company’s demise. Solyndra’s lawyers say that the solar panel companies, polysilicon players and the Government colluded with each other so that panel prices crashed by more than 80% in the last 4 years. The company accuses major Chinese solar companies like Suntech, Trina Solar of raising money from American stock markets to kill US based solar companies.

The accusations which have come soon after the DOC announced AD and CVD duties on Chinese made solar cells is frivolous. There was no cartelization as members of a cartel do not drive the prices of a product below cost, in fact they drive it higher. While Chinese solar companies did receive generous bank loans, land and other utilities from the Government, Solyndra also received a massive $535 million loan from the US Government. Solyndra was a business failure mostly due to its own deeds, blaming and suing the world will not help.

Solyndra Shutdown Story (from our archives)

In my previous missive I had opined that the US Solar Energy Policies were misguided as President Obama visited a Solyndra Factory and the US Department of Energy gave a huge $535 million loan guarantee to Solyndra without any substantial due diligence or competition. Note that established solar companies like Evergreen Solar are literally crying for government support without getting any. Now Evergreen Solar has planned to shutter US factories to open a solar plant in Wuhan, China with Chinese Government support. Same thing is happening with other solar companies like Energy Conversion Devices, Sunpower and others. US Loan Guarantees to Abound Solar and Abengoa also seem to be a waste while massive US Treasury Grants and Aid are creating Solar Thermal White Elephants in California. Note the billions of  dollars in discretionary aid would be spent much better on R&D and subsidies to existing US solar companies which are losing out to Asian competition.

Solyndra has never got its cost economics right as was evident from its failure to do an IPO. The company has raised almost a billion dollars now without much to show for it. With a billion dollars, company  like First Solar could double its capacity to 1 GW. Instead Solyndra has decided to reduce its foretasted capacity to 300 MW by 2013 from 600 MW. This would make it an extremely small player in an hugely crowded and competitive solar market in 2013. Giving guarantees to small startups without transparent bidding and competition is costing millions of dollars to US taxpayers. There has been no accounting and no responsibility for the huge potential losses that DOE is going to incur because of supporting the wrong horse.

Businessweek

Solyndra, which sought bankruptcy protection in August 2011, is seeking compensation “for the loss of the $1.5 billion value of its business and more which defendants destroyed,” lawyers for the company said in a complaint filed today in federal court in San Francisco. The defendants schemed with each other, raw material suppliers and certain lenders to flood the U.S. solar market with solar panels at below-cost prices, the Fremont, California- based company said in the complaint. An energy trade association, China’s energy administration, Chinese banks and Chinese polysilicon manufacturers are named as co-conspirators in the lawsuit.

Also Read about Cheap Solar Panels – Five Most Affordable Solar Panel Brands on GWI.

Sharp to Bail out of Solar as it gets Bailed out by Japanese Banks

11 Oct, 2012 by
Japan,Sharp,Solar Panels

Greenworldinestor has been pointing out the rapidly deteriorating competitive position of Sharp in the solar panel market for the last couple of years. We have even pointed out that it was not worth buying a Sharp solar panel given the alternative. Now as predicted Sharp has bailed out of the solar market almost completely selling 3 of its 4 factories in Japan and closing its marketing operations in USA and Europe which account for nearly 80% of the global solar PV market. Sharp will concentrate its efforts on the domestic market and Asia while ceding the developed markets of the West to stronger players from China and Korea.

Biggest Solar Failure nobody is talking about

There have been hundreds of solar bankruptcies in the last couple of years as solar panel prices have gone down by almost 65% and ASPs have approached the COGs of the lowest cost solar panel manufacturers. However the big Japanese solar panel manufacturers have remained insulated from this wave of failures as they are in general big conglomerates with diversified business lines. While some of the South Korean conglomerates like Samsung, Hyundai have curtailed their solar panel expansion plans, there is no fear of bankruptcy.

However Sharp which is Japan’s largest solar panel manufacturer is facing a real fear of failure as its stock price has crashed to a 37 year low as its cash flow position become precarious. Japanese electronic conglomerates like Sony, Sharp, Panasonic have continuously lost marketshare to South Korean and American companies like Samsung and Apple. They have been plodding along with wafer thin margins for a long time however the last couple of years have been brutal. A strong Yen and competition have forced them into huge losses. In fact Sharp is facing a major equity draw-down because of the huge loss it is making. Sharp has been losing money in its major bread and butter business lines like flat panel displays and solar panels. The company which invested a massive amount of money into building a state of art technology plant in Sakai is having difficulty in funding itself. The company is looking at Foxconn (an OEM supplier) for funds as it continues to lose money. While the other major business groups like Sony too are losing money, Sharp has reached pretty much the end of the tether.

Why Sharp is being forced to abandon domestic factories

Sharp which was the biggest solar company in 2010 in terms of revenues is being finally forced to move its production away from Japan to low cost countries in Asia. Note the relentless cut in prices of solar panels by Chinese solar panel companies has made life impossible for high cost panel companies in Europe and Japan. While US Companies like Sunpower and First Solar always had the majority of their production in low cost locales like Malaysia and Philippines, European solar firms had also started shifting their production overseas with Q-Cells moving to Malaysia and REC to Singapore. The current glut in solar panels has led to massive bloodletting in the solar industry with some established companies like Evergreen, ENER on the verge of bankruptcy. The sharp cost improvements and increased supply of crystalline silicon solar panels is set about to bring radical changes in the solar industry after a massive boom in 2010. Most of the production bases in Europe should be shuttered as well as costs have become higher than the selling prices. PV Crystalox and REC are already in a lot of trouble, cutting production and forecasting losses in the second half of 2011.

Sharp which has managed till now to survive with its high costs in Japan factories too is now facing the pressure. Japanese market is highly protectionist with majority of the demand going to  Japanese zaibatsus. The Japanese Government is helping Solar Companies with subsidies/diplomacy to sell Japanese solar panels in Asia and Africa. Sharp now is being forced to move off the islands of Japan as the high cost of labor and currency makes it uncompetitive in the fiercely cutthroat solar panel global market. Sharp has a giant thin film silicon factory in Sakai and cell/module operations spread out in Japan. It will now manufacture more of its cells/modules overseas to cut down on the cost which are much higher than the Chinese. Note while Sharp is still a long way in suffering the fate of the likes of Evergreen Solar, there is no doubt that it is under huge pressure.

DigiTimes

Japan-based Sharp plans to cut solar panel production in Europe and the US. The firm plans to gather resources and focus on Japan and other Asia markets. Sharp hopes to increase its domestic solar market share from 30% in 2012 to 40% in 2013 and has been focusing on highly profitable rooftop solar PV system projects. Sharp plans to sell three of its four solar cell plants in Japan. Also, the firm plans to sell solar equipment before end of its 2012 fiscal year. Solar cell production will be integrated into Sharp’s plant in Sakai city in Osaka and the extra workforce will be shifted to other departments to avoid lay-offs.

WSJ

Sharp Corp. said Friday it has reached a deal to receive a ¥360 billion yen ($4.64 billion) syndicated loan, helping keep the struggling electronics maker’s operations afloat amid an apparent standstill in talks with Taiwan’s Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. over a previously agreed capital injection.

US Taxpayers could Buy world’s largest Solar Panel Company for $184 million instead of Loaning $197 million to a Startup

2 Oct, 2012 by
Solar Panels,USA

USA’s loan grant schemes to green companies have proven to be a massive disaster as proved by the failure of a numerous companies that have been recipients of these loans. While Solyndra has been the media poster boy, there have been others like Abound Solar, A123 Systems and Beacon Power. Now there is a proposal to give $197 million to Thin Film Startup SoloPower for building a $350 million solar factory. Note thin film solar panels have been decimated by the advances in technology made by crystalline silicon panel technology. Most of the thin panel companies have already gone bankrupt and even the biggest company First Solar is finding it unprofitable to sell its thin film solar panels at current prices. General Electric which is one of the world’s biggest industrial conglomerates has also put on hold its thin film solar manufacturing plans.

Solyndra Fiasco

In my previous missive I had opined that the US Solar Energy Policies were misguided as President Obama visited a Solyndra Factory and the US Department of Energy gave a huge $535 million loan guarantee to Solyndra without any substantial due diligence or competition. Note that established solar companies like Evergreen Solar are literally crying for government support without getting any. Now Evergreen Solar has planned to shutter US factories to open a solar plant in Wuhan, China with Chinese government support. Same thing is happening with other solar companies like Energy Conversion Devices, Sunpower and others. US Loan Guarantees to Abound Solar and Abengoa also seem to be a waste while massive US Treasury Grants and Aid are creating Solar Thermal White Elephants in California. Note the billions of  dollars in discretionary aid would be spent much better on R&D and subsidies to existing US solar companies which are losing out to Asian competition.

US Taxpayers could buy world’s largest solar panel company for $184 million instead of loaning $197 million to a startup

In the face of these developments, it boggles the mind how Solopower will succeed despite its claims of differentiation. Note Ascent Solar which makes the same kind of flexible CIGs solar panels was sold for a pittance to TFG Radiant as it could not compete in the current environment. Solar panel companies have been brutalized in the last couple of years and the world’s biggest solar panel supplier Suntech has a market capitalization of just $184 million. This is smaller than the $197 million that the US Government intends to give as a loan to Solopower. Like the Solyndra predication that proved to be true, I think that Solopower loan will also end up as a waste of taxpayer’s money.

Solar Thin Film Companies Dying like Flies

While the solar bankruptcies that are going on for the last year or so are nothing new, the pace has accelerated in recent times. With even the biggest thin film manufacturers, First Solar finding its products noncompetitive in the face of cheap Chinese c-Si solar modules, the smaller start ups are facing extinction. Even the older established companies are now declaring bankruptcy as they see no prospects even in the future. Odersun and Konarka are the two thin film companies who have gone down in recent times. In an earlier post, prediction of a second wave of thin film bankruptcies had been given with Suntech exiting the thin film game. That prediction is coming true with thin film companies giving up with no prospects of their ever being able to match the Chinese crystalline solar panel costs which are going down by a dramatic 15-20% each year. Coupled with low efficiency and low scale, these smaller companies despite their innovative technologies have no hope. Even consumers of Oerlikon’s a-Si technology have started closing their factories even as Oerlikon has sold its thin film division to Japanese semiconductor equipment heavyweight Tokyo Electron. Note Applied Materials has closed it’s a-Si division during the first wave of thin film bankruptcies in 2009 and 2010.

GigaOm

Getting that first line up and running will be important for giving SoloPower access to a $197 million federal loan guarantee to help build the remaining 300 MW at the same site. The goal is to complete the entire 400 MW factory in 2014. The total cost of building the entire 400MW factory will be about $350 million. SoloPower appears to have signed more stringent terms for securing the loan guarantee than Solyndra. Harris said his company likely underwent a lot more scrutiny because it cinched the loan guarantee much later than Solyndra did.

Solyndra obtained the loan guarantee agreement in September 2009 while SoloPower finalized its deal in August 2011. If SoloPower is able to complete the factory project and hit its sales and profit goals, then it will  become a role model and will have achieved something that Solyndra couldn’t pull off.

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