Green
February 7, 2012
Chinese Legal System is mostly a joke with the communist party running the world's most populated country with an iron hand. The courts are mostly for show as dissidence against the Party is not tolerated and human rights are non-existent.Also most of the major companies are run under crony capital rules rather than free markets. Most of the rulings are done which favor the ruling party mandarins with little respect to whatever Communist Party laws are. IP Theft has been a big problem for overseas companies operating in China with Google existing the country sometime ago after it was hacked. With the world's largest Internet companies having to run because of IP theft, smaller companies have no chance.Sinovel is the biggest wind company in the world right now because of Chinese government support and policies. It commands huge influence in the corridors of power as it is unlikely to have become this big without major government and bank support.
February 6, 2012
China which is home to the biggest solar industry in the world and most of the top solar panel manufacturers has decided to lower subsidy in 2012. Note China did not pass a Feed in Tariff Law for a long time as prices of solar energy remained high. But after a massive crash in solar prices and energy in 2011 it passed a FIT law in late 2011 to take advantage. This resulted in a big jump resulting in China becoming one of the top 5 markets in 2011 . Now China is set to become one of the top 3 markets in 2012 if not the biggest . This is due to the fact that other European solar panel markets are rapidly reducing subsidies and China needs to support its solar companies many of which are effectively insolvent like LDK.
February 5, 2012
Japanese Companies which were the leading solar companies in 2006 have steadily lost the top global rankings to Chinese companies. Now many of the top Japanese Solar Energy Companies are retreating from markets and manufacturing. Sharp which was the largest solar company in 2009 and 2010 has radically restructured its strategy but is still losing marketshare. Panasonic the second biggest solar company has closed down its Japanese factory. Other Japanese solar companies like Mitsubishi, Kyocera are also being forced to rethink solar panel manufacturing.
Note most of the higher cost producers in the solar industry are effectively bankrupt and are only being supported by government or big parents. Many Western companies have already closed or are on the verge of closing. Some of the bankrupt companies are not finding buyers of their equipment even at 10c/dollar. Massive overcapacity remains in the solar industry particularly in China which is not being taken out fast enough which will probably lead to another bad year for solar stocks in 2012.
February 4, 2012
We would like to incorporate BIPV solar tiles or roofing when we build - so we are trying to find out a this point what products are now available in Australia and what our choices would be and the range of prices each would be in ...just to give us a starting point as we begin to pull all the ideas together ?
We'd really appreciate any information you can send our way that would help us achieving this - the brand/type of BIVP we can use, the best inverter and battery you'd recommend - obviously it will depend on where we are and how much sun our roof will get - but we plan to make it as much as is possible as we'd like to be able create 100% of our power needs or if not at least 80 % . At present as a guide my household uses approx 10.7 khw of power a day - so that will give you an idea of how many solar tiles we'd need perhaps ...if the sun was at its optimum ? We hope to be building on a reasonably sunny block between Ferntree Gully and Belgrave on the high side near bushland ...beginning in a couple of months or so
February 1, 2012
I continue to be surprised by the bad and shallow analysis of renewable energy subsidies done by media. Most of it is due to bad research and lack of investigative and unbiased journalism. Writers with little or no background in energy or cleantech sensationalize an issue taking a report from some biased thinktank. Here is one example from a website called ironically Reason.com which you can read here http://reason.com/blog/2012/01/31/black-hole-sun-germany-spends-100-billio
January 31, 2012
I receive a lot of inquiries regarding how to enter the solar industry . Note the Solar Business is one of the fastest growing industries in […]
January 31, 2012
Solar Power in India has taken off under the ambitious JNNSM government subsidy scheme with almost 400 MW of Solar Capacity installed in 2011 . With various states like Gujarat, Karnataka coming up with aggressive solar subsidy schemes on their own as well, solar power capacity in India should surge by around 1 GW in 2012. This has made India one of the fastest growing solar markets in the globe right now.
January 30, 2012
Finding accurate Solar insolation data is a difficult problem faced in most countries except Europe and USA. The reason is that there is no history of solar radiation data in most countries as solar power is a relatively new technology. Most of the solar developers rely on data from NASA, DOE and European agencies which focus mostly on their domestic geography. This leads to faulty and inaccurate solar radiation data for other places which are seeing massive solar boom due to falling solar panel prices. India which installed 400 MW of solar power plants in 2011 and should see another 1000 MW in 2012 faces this problems also. There are no devices to record solar insolation in India with data coming from outside.
January 30, 2012
The Solar Products Business is booming not only from the Solar Power Plants but also in consumer products business. Sol not are big conglomerates like Mahindra, GMR , Reliance getting into the lucrative booming solar power in India, but now water purifier companies in India are too getting into the act. India's biggest water purifying company Eureka Forbes which is found in almost every Indian home is going to start selling solar lighting products like torches and lanterns.
January 27, 2012
The Chinese Dominance of the Solar Industry in the last 2 years have seen numerous Western companies go bust . This has accelerated sharply in 2011 with companies like Evergreen Solar,Spectrawatt, Solar Millenium, Solon, Photowatt etc. either gone for good or in various stages of bankruptcy. Other US Solar Panel Manufacturers like First Solar, Sunpower have fired thousands and some are continuing with large losses. European Solar Companies are the worst off given their high cost structure and lack of differentiation. Solland Solar recently killed its solar module line while some like Schott have killed their solar wafer lines.
January 27, 2012
So what are the criterea for staying alive in 2012
a) Government Support in Some Form - Most of the Tier 1 Chinese Solar Companies will fall into this bracket. However given that there are so many you would have to look at the biggest like Suntech, LDK, Yingli for survival in any case. LDK is a BANKRUPT COMPANY ,the only reason it continue to produce a solar panel is because of the Chinese government support
b) Low Cost - Though seems like an obvious idea, there are still companies existing which have high costs like Q-Cells, REC. You just can't invest in them given that even low cost is a necessary though not sufficient condition to survive
c) Branding - Very necessary to get financing for solar projects as without a brand you are not bankable and will have to sell at a 10% discount in a market which is already selling at below cost
January 26, 2012
Quick quiz. What is common to Suzlon, Moser Baer, Indo Solar, Websol Energy systems and Orient Green Power? All these stocks had successful runs on the stock market and hyped as the next game changers in wind energy, semi conductors, solar power and hydel/geo thermal power. Valuations were more on growth stories than through an hard nosed DCF spreadsheet. But now, they trade at record lows(like other stocks but what is different is the pressing fundamental concerns in each case). Is this a bubble finally bursting, or are investors panicking?
January 19, 2012
Solar Jobs have been cut in the tens of thousands this year by a number of European Solar Companies including marquee names such as REC, Q-Cells, Solarworld ,SMA Solar besides many of the smaller names. Some of the solar companies like Solon have completely shut down. 5000 solar companies have downed shutters in 2011 according to German association BSW. This is despite global solar demand in 2011 increasing by around 30-40% compared to 2010. The reason is that massive overcapacity has been created in China and other parts of Asia. Backed by cheap loans and massive subsidies, around 50 GW of solar panel capacity has been created . This has led to a crashing of solar panel prices by 60% which has decimated the higher cost companies in Europe.
January 19, 2012
The Indian government is not going to impose any new duties on imports of Chinese solar cells. This is despite the petition by the Indian solar panel manufacturers to give a level playing field. Note Chinese solar panels have virtually destroyed the solar manufacturing industry in the West with big companies falling under the relentless price pressure where solar panel prices have gone down by 60% in one year. Only the Koreans seem to be standing up to the Chinese government backed top tier solar companies from China. The rest have mostly folded up and are facing survival questions including those from Taiwan. Indian solar companies were never that big and cost competitive anyway given the headstart and support of the Chinese backed companies. The price crash in 2011 has seen most of them close their factories as they can't even cover their costs at the Gross Margin Level.
January 19, 2012
There is urgent need to reduce the solar capacity addition in Germany because
a) It is requiring almost half of the $21 billion renewable energy subsidies in 2011 while generating 3% of the total power
b) Too much solar power while put pressure on the power grid as at the peak afternoon hours solar can generate almost 10% of Germany's power requirement which means shutting down other sources
c) German Solar Panel producers have stopped benefiting from German domestic growth. Most solar companies in Germany have been decimated by Chinese competition and around 20000 solar jobs and 5000 companies have shut down.
January 18, 2012
Solar Insolvency Protection is a new financial product that is going to be introduced by Munich Re the giant German reinsurer. Note Munich Re has been at the forefront of introducing insurance products for solar energy. It was one of the first companies to provide an insurance against the 25 year solar warranty which is generally given by solar companies for their solar modules.It has introduced it for LDK Solar Panels before moving onto other companies as well.
January 18, 2012
First Solar the Big Daddy of Thin FIlm Solar Panels too is under pressure and if not for the DOE funded solar farms in California would have been facing a huge global marketshare loss. There are only a few thin film companies that can hope to compete . Those that can have big parents with massive balance sheets like Solar Frontier backed by Showa and Shell, Sharp ,TSMC and others . VC and PE backed startups have a snowball chance in hell of surviving because they need to get their costs to 50c/watt an impossibility even for First Solar leave alone poor startups.
January 18, 2012
Wind Power in India has been wildly successful and is the 5th biggest in the world because of substantial incentives from the government. One of them has been accelerated depreciation which has made hundreds of companies and rich individuals buy small wind farms. This helps them offset their tax liabilities providing a substantial 2 digit returns. However the big drawback in this from of green subsidy is that it does not incentivize the production of wind energy. Once the wind farm is set up, the incentive to produce lots of electricity is not there unlike the case of Feed in Tariff where your returns are solely based on the electricity generation.
January 16, 2012
Germany has seen the biggest increase in solar installations in the history of solar energy with 3 GW in the month of December 2011 alone. For perspective this is almost equal to the installed capacity of the Chinese solar energy which has almost 6-7 times as much electricity generating capacity . The returns are still high in 2012 with existing FIT , so the German government may have to plan additional cuts with plans of
a) cut of 2% FIT every month in 2012 to slow down the installations and bring down the solar system IRR
b) a cap on feed in tariffs to solar systems of 3 kilowatts only .This will prevent larger solar installations and building of large solar farms
January 16, 2012
China add the most electricity capacity annually in the world at around 100 GW and its total electricity generation capacity is second only to the USA which it will surpass in the next few years. China is highly dependent on thermal power for its energy needs which is becoming scarce and expensive by the day. Not to speak of the big disadvantages of coal as a fuel which causes thousands of deaths each year. Solar Energy has now reached grid parity in many parts of the world thanks to the low cost cheap solar panels being made by Chinese solar panel producers. With many countries now thinking of putting an anti dumping duty on Chiense solar modules, the government is looking to boost domestic demand . Chinese solar panel Tier 1 players like LDK, Suntech, Trina and Yingli besides some others are the biggest beneficiaries of this new solar policy from China.
January 16, 2012
SMA Solar ,the biggest German Solar Energy company is now losing marketshare to the new solar inverter manufacturers in USA and China. Note SMA Solar held a dominating 40% solar inverter global marketshare in 2010 compared to the solar panel manufacturers none of which has managed more than a 10% marketshare . SMA Solar however is now feeling the heat of the competition as solar energy prices continue to go down steadily. The pressure on the solar inverter companies has been increasing as solar inverter prices as a percentage of the total solar system cost has risen from 5% to almost 10% now as solar panel prices have come down much more rapidly.
January 14, 2012
How Chinese Module Makers will use the Taiwanese Cell Producers to Circumvent US Anti-Dumping Policy
The USA and China are locked in a bitter tiff over solar panel imports from China. Note Solarworld filed a petition with the ITC which in all probability will put an anti-dumping duty on Chinese solar modules. Other countries whose solar panel producers have been swamped by the super cheap Solar Panel imports too are thinking of special custom duties. However the big Tier 1 Chinese solar panel makers are not sitting idle . They have already come out with strategies to circumvent the US Solar Panel Duties if they are imposed .
January 12, 2012
The Indian government is going to set targets for large power users so that their energy usage is capped. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) is going to supervise this program in which Energy Saving Certificates will be awarded . This certificates can be traded on the energy exchanges providing an incentive for large energy users to improve energy efficiency . Note Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) are already trading successfully on IEX since the last year . REC have promoted the usage of Renewable Energy by providing a market linked mechanism to find prices for green energy in India.
January 12, 2012
The number of solar factories closing in Europe has increased tremendously in the 2nd half of 2012 despite a record surge in Germany which would have raised 2011 solar growth to 25%. However the relentless price pressure from Chinese solar panel companies has decimated the solar companies in the West. While there have been a number of famous cases of bankruptcy like Solyndra and Solon, there have been bigger solar factory closedowns. REC has closed down more than 1 GW of wafer capacity while a pure play Spanish solar wafer factory also closed down recently . British solar wafer maker PV Crystalox is also near the verge of failure. Solar Wafer prices have fallen by almost 60% in the last 1 year with the prices much below the cost of production in Europe. It seems unlikely that any solar wafer maker will remain alive in Europe by 2013.
January 11, 2012
China's solar market growth has hit the rocket phase in late 2011 with the announcement of the long awaited national Feed in Tariff . Many of the Chinese utilties have set up large solar farms utilizing the cheap solar panels produced by Chinese solar panel companies. Note Chinese solar companies are the dominant players in the world having almost killed the western solar industry in the last couple of years. With cheap costs and massive government support, China is almost ruling the solar industry globally . In the domestic Chinese market they have even a bigger advantage given the local home conditions and preference of domestic companies . Note China become home to the biggest wind turbine companies when China enacted the domestic content requirements in 2006. With the solar industry , the Chinese government does not need this law as its companies already possess massive advantages over the foreign competition.
January 11, 2012
Green Jobs in India is going to grow at a high double digit rate driven by the Real Estate and Construction Industry. The hiring will be done by Real Estate Companies in India looking for Energy Efficiency and Green Building professionals. Note the Green Industry globally has had a torrid 2011 with most of the major sectors like wind, solar, biofuels and lighting facing oversupply amidst slowing demand due to global macro problems. However the Green Industry has a great fturue driven by secular drivers like
January 11, 2012
Green Industry in US continues to flourish despite the general apathy towards global warming from a significant section of the population and parties. USA is the hotbed of green innovation despite stiff challenge by China which is spending billions of dollars to become the No.1 in Green Industry and Technology. US has the lead in Fuel Cell Technology with a number of top companies like Fuel Cell Energy, Bloom Energy. Now a start up ClearEdge Power has got one of the biggest fuel cell orders in the world worth $85 million from Austria's Gussing Renewable Energy. The deal calls for supplying of 50 megawatts of power by the year 2020.
January 11, 2012
Europe which has been one of the greenest regions on earth in terms of promoting green energy and reducing carbon emissions is set to face a severe test. Europe is going to impose a Carbon Tax on Airlines flying into the region from 2012 . This has got the other major countries seeing red, with most of them planning retaliation. This Green Tax will add around $3 billion per year in terms of extra fees from airlines or around $6 per extra passenger. While airlines from USA and Canada approached the court, airlines from India and China are refusing to pay the tax outright. Indian airlines won't supply their carbon data while China won't pay the taxes . Note European Union is isolated in this fight against climate change . Though Carbon Trading is not a perfect system and open to abuses, at least it makes a pretense to fight global warming. On the other hand,these other countries have no plan or intention to fight climate change.