Real Estate
November 26, 2010
India's new Corruption Scandal involving a Housing Loan Scam involving Bribes paid to India's top public bank officials has ensnared top notch financial institutions in the West as well.The whos-who of Wall Street got dazed by spectacular growth and profits of a 3 year old financial outfit in India which had been built on a foundation of lies and bribers.This Corruption Scam was started by a Financial Outfit called Money Matter Financial Services which started as a 2 person outfit.However through arranging of debt to big corporate houses by paying bribes to top officials of India's large government owned institutions such as Bank of Indian,PNB and others,the outfit saw its share price increase by 7 times.
November 25, 2010
I have been repeatedly pointing out the dangers of investing in Real Estate Companies as more and more skeletons tumble from the closet.Its an open secret that Real Estate Companies in India fudge their Financial Statements through Creative Accounting and other means such that even Fund Managers don't invest in the Realty Sector.Major Real Estate Companies like IREO and Emaar MGF have played prominent role in some of the major corruption scams rocking the country.Now more big Real Estate Firms have been implicated for their role in other corruption scandals.DB Realty a Mumbai based Realty Company has been found to be a prime suspect in the LIC Housing Finance Scam where the CBI has arrested.Some construction companies like Man Infrastructure,HCC have also become a target of investigation.
November 18, 2010
India's Fast Growing Economy based on Consumption rather than Exports has made it a Darling for International Fund Managers.When the whole world is suffering from some structural crisis or the other,India seems an like an oasis in the desert.However like a Mirage,the Governance and Regulatory Shortcomings make India look much better than what it is.$90 Billion of Record Foreign Inflows have been invested into India mostly into the booming Stock Market even as Indian Retail investors have fled.The dichotomy is perhaps explained by the problems faced by people on the ground who have a better sense than Fund Managers sitting in their Glass Towers in Singapore,New York and London.Insitutional Investors in India are mostly Compromised or Incompetent in my view herding into the Indian Markets dazed by the positive aspects of the Indian Economy while glossing over the Risks.Crushing Income Disparity where a $2 Billion Home is constructed while 80% of Indians live on less than $2 day,Pervasive Corruption with Billions being Swindled in Telecom and Land Scams,Massive Red Tape and Policy Bankruptcy has been ignored.However these Risks remain as can be seen by the SKS Microfinance Debacle.
November 16, 2010
Corruption in India has taken a widely virulent and blatant form with scams popping up almost everyday.Greed is Good has become the motto for India's Role Models in Sport and Military as well.India's Politicians are Leading the protagonists with Realty being the Main Theme.Note Real Estate companies in India are notorious for corruption with the sector being avoided by Fund Managers.India's Southern State of Karnataka is known for its IT Industry with capital Bangalore famous as a Knowledge Hub.However the Politicians of that State have made it the Corruption Capital with Bangalore equally famous for Land Grabbing and Real Estate Scams by Bureaucrats and Politicians.While Districts in the State have been made famous by Robber Mining Barons,the capital is famous for Realty Shenanigans.
November 14, 2010
IREO,a new Real Estate Company which is making waves in India's National Capital Region (NCR) with glitzy projects has now come under the tax scanner for illegal fund inflows from tax havens of Mauritius and Cyprus.It is alleged that black money from India has been roundtripped through these tax havens in the guise of Private Equity Money.It is an open secret that Black Money from India finds its way back to India through tax havens in the form of foreign investment when it just a roughtripping of domestic money.The figure quoted is around $1.5 billion of illegal money pouring into 26 companies associated with IREO.The company came into focus during the Commonwealth Scam and is linked to an Opposition Party leader.As usual their are denials,media circus and the whole thing will end as it does all the time with Nothing Happening.
November 4, 2010
India's Cricketing Icons are considered as role models by majority of the youth.India's cricketers like Sunil Gavaskar,Kapil Dev are revered in the country due to the huge popularity of the game.However India's recent cricketing league IPL has been found to another massive corruption scam.No jail terms as usual but a lot of political turmoil and media jumping around.India's top ministers have been indirectly implicated but nothing has happened as usual.Now it has been found that India's top former cricketers are also a part of this Greed Fest.Sunil Gavaskar,arguably India's best known batsman has got caught in a controversy.He has demeaned himself by asking for a huge payment that he was promised to be a member of the governing council of the corruption tainted IPL.Any upright person would have totally disassociated himself with the whole corruption game.By asking for a huge sum for his services,even this cricketing icon has fallen.India has very few role models left.
October 29, 2010
India's Political and Business Elite is known to break Indian Laws with Impunity as Corruption becomes more Blatant by the Day.India recently hosted the Commonwealth Games which was known more for its Corruption and Large Scale Looting than any Sporting Feats.The Politician Bureaucrat Nexus along with their Business Associates made a massive amount of money without any fear of the law.Despite some tax raids and some feeble investigation,it is known that no one would serve jails terms.At least not the fat cats at the top,maybe some minor official will do a year or two so that the government can be seen as doing something.India's top vigilance official recently said that 30% of Indians were utterly corrupt and the seems to be an understimate.
October 22, 2010
Surprise Surprise : Indian Real Estate Company Emaar MGF implicated in the Massive Commonwealth Scam
Indian Real Estate Companies have the worst reputation amongst the different sectors in India.Corruption,Irregularities,Creative Accounting,Defrauding Consumers,Tax Raids are common to these companies.In fact the financial statements of the Realty Sector are considered so untrustworthy that some Fund Mangers are loath to invest in the whole sector.Despite a Stock Market Bull Run,a line of Realty Companies have not still managed to raise money from the primary markets because of the distrust with which the general public regards them.A Truly Dubious Achievement for the Real Estate Sector in India.Note both small developers and big developers have been involved in scams and shenanigans.2 Real Estate Companies in the National Capital Region Oreo and Emaar MGF,two of the better known Realty Companies have come under the focus of Indian Investigative agencies.Emaar MGF has been trying to do an IPO for a long time without success.Now it has come under the scanner for irregularities for construction of the Commonwealth Games Village.
October 12, 2010
Indian IPO Rules allows the Merchant Bankers of the Issue to give favored institutional clients a part of the IPO even before the issue starts.This has the advantage for both parties as funds get a guaranteed portion of the IPO and Bankers can tout the quality of the company.However you would have to question these "Anchor Investors' on how they invest in such IPOs.Prestige Estates a Realty Company coming out with an IPO is another low quality company to come out with a high valuation.So finding 21 Anchor Investors is a surprise.Despite the Real Estate Market being avoided by Fund Mangers due to questionable practice,23 Funds have found it worthwhile to add Prestige Estates to their portfolio.Makes you wonder if Institutional Investors are Plain Incompetent ,Compromised or Both
October 12, 2010
Prestige Estates is an Indian Real Estate Company with its operations focused in the southern part of India mainly in the techie city of Bangalore.The company is one on the long list of Realty Companies which have been waiting impatiently to raise money from the Stock Markets trying to pay off their debts.It is raising around Rs 1200 crores or $250mm .Oberoi Realty was a decent Realty Stock as far as the Sector goes which managed good subscription numbers in the last week.With "animal spirits" returning fueled by Bernanke's Helicopter Policy expect more such shoddy Realty issues to hit the market.Note the Sector is an investor minefield with even well connected Fund Managers not trusting the financial statements published by these companies.With the Indian Stock Market already featuring a wide variety in terms of quality and quantity of Realty Stocks,Prestige Estates brings no difference and on analysis seems easy to avoid.Here are some features to this company
Summary
Prestige Estates is another low quality shady highly indebted Realty Company which should be strictly be avoided.It defies any simple analysis because of its convoluted structure and cross holdings.The Company Sales have been stagnant and Margins Low and it has high concentration risk as well.The Management inspires no confidence at all and is a typical example of the badly managed Real Estate Sector in India.Should be avoided at all costs by investors.Note 5 of the last 9 IPOs in India in the last month are giving losses to investors.This promises to be no different given the fundamentals.
October 10, 2010
In the last 4-5 years, the real estate investment community seems to have been a victim of optimism bias. This is most exemplified in the severe under estimation of time/duration required for construction/operation of project investments. For fund managers who have made investments in major parts of Asia (China, Vietnam, India, Indonesia) in the last 4-5 years, under estimation of timelines is the one area in which they all concede to have erred. The experience has shown how easy it is to fall into the optimism bias trap and start believing that once the finance is secured and the contracts awarded, things just roll on in an automode. Following are some of interesting reasons (these are all true) by which projects have gone significantly delayed
It is believed that the only section of the population that isn't susceptible to the optimism bias are people with major depressive disorder. Probably funds should consider hiring some of them.
October 5, 2010
Organized retail industry in India is largely an oligopsonic market. (An oligopsony is a market form in which the number of buyers is small while the number of sellers in theory could be large. It contrasts with an oligopoly, where there are many buyers but just a few sellers. An oligopsony is a form of imperfect competition. One example of an oligopsony in the world economy is cocoa, where three firms (Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland, and Callebaut) buy the vast majority of world cocoa bean production, mostly from small farmers in third-world countries.)
Shopping centres in India have well defined product categories. These including the multiplex, the food court, the hypermarkets, the departmental stores (loosely referred to as anchors) and then the vanilla stores. In each of the anchor product categories, there are virtually 4-5 established players that all the retailers have to go to. This gives rise to an oligopsonic market with the retailers having the relationship power balance tilted in their favour. Also, with shopping centres being capital intensive (with large amount of debts) and the retailers working on negative working capital, the cash flow pressures are that much more on the shopping centre owners than the retailers. It gives retailers much more time to play hardball in their negotiations with the shopping centre owners.
October 5, 2010
Real Estate Companies have been trying to raise money from the primary markets for a long time.The depressed markets and the negative sentiment about the real estate sector had prevented that from happening.Realty companies are known for their "creative accouting" shenanigans and their financial statements are not even trusted by Fund Managers.However the Current Bull Run has sparked renewed interest in all sectors even depressed ones like Realty.This has presented a golden oppurtunity for Real Estate Companies to do IPOs.While the last 2 Real Estates issues Jaypee Infratech and Nitesh Estates were disasters,this ones looks better than the last 2 lemons.Oberio Realty has good profits,cash flows and zero debt.This makes their issue much better,however the Realty Sector is a dangerous one to play because of the corruption that pervades the entire industry.So you make an investment here not really knowing what you are getting into.Not a Warren Buffet Investment by a long shot.The upside is limited with huge amount of downsides in the form of unknowns.Here are some of the features of Oberio Realty
September 21, 2010
Cons
1) Valuation - The Valuation of the company is not cheap at around 3x P/B and around 28-30x P/E .But with companies of the same quality going in for around the same if not higher valuations,why would the company sell the shares at a discount.This however does not make it better for investors who get very little for investing in a newly listed company.This stock is an unlikely candidate to be multibagger
2) Negative Cash Flows - The High WC Requirements of the Sector and Fast Growth has meant that the Operating Cash flows of the company have been negative in the last 3 years.
Summary
The Company and the Sector in which it operates is a good one,however the Valuation has discounted most of the good things about the company.The company has very little to be negative about except the high working capital ,negative cash flows and the like.But that is a feature of the Construction Sector rather than anything negative about the company.The high valuation given to the issue makes it avoidable given better opportunities in the Indian market.
September 10, 2010
The Developers as usual are being brazen about it denying any wrongdoing despite tons of cash and incriminating documents being found.These Raids never result in convictions or prison terms and in India are generally politically motivated.Most of the Government officials are a part of the gravy train and would not touch connected Real Estate Developers without a push from their political masters.Expect these Developers to start their business as usual in a couple of months as India's Political and Business Elite toys with the country's laws with impunity.
August 27, 2010
The Indian Government Cabinet today gave approval to a new Direct Tax Code which is supposed to fundamentally change the Tax Structure in the country.This Code […]
August 23, 2010
India’s Real Estate Sector is one of the most unloved sectors in the Stock Market.Even Fund Managers shun this Sector because of the complete lack of […]
July 19, 2010
The recent recovery in Euro from 1.2 to 1.3 USD and the strength of the stock markets would make you think that the Greek Contagion is […]
July 17, 2010
Indian Real Estate Sector yet to Recover from the Lehman Crisis The Indian Real Estate Sector is one of the most interesting sectors in India with […]
July 15, 2010
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a cesspool of Corruption and Waste Fannie and Freddie Mae which would long have gone bankrupt after the Lehman crisis had […]
July 5, 2010
China’s powerful Economic Growth Engine is showing definite signs of a major Moderation.Earlier reports indicated a sharp slowdown in Industrial PMI levels even as a US […]
June 11, 2010
Caja Madrid which was looking for a Bailout from the Spanish Central Bank is merging with another large Caja Bancaja.The Central Bank is pressurizing the Cajas(Socially […]
June 8, 2010
The Spanish government which moved quickly to cut its Fiscal Deficit following the Greek crisis is now facing a major challenge from the Spanish Unions.The government […]
June 2, 2010
Spanish Cajas have been in the news recently acting as the equivalent of the “subprime sector” during the US financial crisis.CajaSur was seized by the Spanish […]
May 27, 2010
Emaar MGF has been trying to do an IPO for the last 3 years without success.Recent news suggest that is has reduced its planned offering by […]
May 26, 2010
Europe has been recently been rocked by problems in Spain’s Banking sector as Spain’s central bank was forced to seize a Priest led Bank “CajaSur” which […]
May 24, 2010
The State of Management of some of the European banks would seem funny if it was not such a serious matter.According to Bloomberg ,Bank CajaSur which […]
May 24, 2010
Investing in Real Estate stocks is fraught with high risk because its almost impossible to value these stocks in this sector given the total lack of […]
May 22, 2010
Jaypee Infratech which is one of the low quality offerings (IPOs) to list in the Indian market fell 10% on the very day of the listing.This […]
May 21, 2010
Most of the low quality IPOs that have listed in the Indian market recently, have fallen on the day of the listing itself.Jaypee Infratech which is […]