Stock Market
February 28, 2011
The Reserve Bank of India has clarified that Indian individuals cannot trade in the forex markets under FEMA rules.Note a number of Indian brokers and forex companies were advertising heavily promising big returns to retail investors.Note forex markets are extremely tough to trade even for professional traders for institutions.For retail investors they are a sure shot way to lose money in large amounts.Note forex markets offer much higher leverage than normal Futures Equity markets.Being an effectively zero sum game and requiring high amounts of knowledge ,forex markets are just too sophisticated for retail investors in my view.But they are quite lucrative for forex trading portals and companies whose main target semgent are retail investors.
February 28, 2011
The Indian Stock Market Regulator SEBI has been seen doing nothing against blatant market manipulation and stock rigging scams.Mid cap and Small Cap Stocks are havens for rigging by promoters and stock brokers as SEBI seemingly does nothing.Even in the primary market,junk IPOs rule the roost with even the recent correction failing to see crap stocks making a debut (Sudar Garmets,Fineotex,Omkar etc.).To anyone with a modicum of common sense it is apparent that such low quality companies could not raise money without manipulating the markets.However SEBI in its infinite wisdom remains blind to this.Stock brokers like Ashika,Dangi continue to operate unimpeded despite being indicted for scamming.Even reputed stock brokers are involved in underhand and shady dealings.However SEBI does nothing indirectly encouraging fleecing of small and retail investors.Not that big investors like Goldman,GMO are immune to fly by night operators as well.
February 28, 2011
Corruption in India has taken massive proportions with a new scam being unearthed almost every day .However this has not metered the architects of corruption in India from continuing their looting spree.While the 2G Telecom Scam throws up new looting revelations,newer corruption scams are also competing for newspaper inches.Investing in the Indian stock markets is at best a hazardous activity with most of the promoters trying to fleece shareholders.Mid cap and small cap scams have already resulted in massive losses.Now investing in India's largest companies belonging to the main Nifty Index has also become dangerous.While the scam related to the ADAG Group has already resulted in 80-90% fall from the peaks of the companies of this group,others are joining in.Nalco which is a government owned integrated aluminum producer was thought to be one of the safest companies to invest in.However even this company has fallen.The CEO of the company was found taking bribes in the form of gold bricks in return for favors.
February 19, 2011
The CleanTech and Green Theme is being increasingly used by fraudsters and fly by night operators in the stock market.CO2 Tech Ltd.,a Pink Sheets Company has […]
February 18, 2011
Note it would not be surprising if the allegations were true as the Indian stock market is a pump and dump heaven of IPOs with blatant manipulation by market operators.Price Rigging Rings are also present with mid cap and small cap scams happening with an alarming regularity.With Corruption touching a new high,the Supreme Court has taken over the investigation of the Telecom Scam Probe from the Government.This has led the CBI which is mostly a ruling party puppet to question some top billionaires and politicians.However it remains to be seen if some of the top fish are caught or just some small scapegoats are imprisoned.
February 16, 2011
Acropetal Technologies is a bit different from the run of the mill junk IPOs coming out in Feb 2011.After a deluge of crap IPOs in 2010,2011 has not seen many of them as the markets have corrected by around 15%.However a recent rally has bought out the junk companies in association with their associated shady bankers and market operators.Omkar,Sudar,FCL are some of the totally crap IPOs which have happened or in the process of happening.Acropetal Technologies is an IT/ITES company plans to raise Rs 170-crore through its IPO on February 21. The company has fixed the price-band of its IPO at between Rs 88 and Rs 90 per equity share.The company will use Rs 55 crore for acquisitions and Rs 26 crores for a software office.The company seems better quality than the junk and may merit a look from investors though there are much better companies on offer at better prices in the secondary markets.Here are the positives and negatives of the IPO
February 16, 2011
In the season of scams and scandals when the erstwhile high flying mid cap and small cap names are getting battered for management issues,Sudar Garments has surprisingly come out with an IPO despite spotty corporate governance issues.Like so many of the junk IPOs coming out in 2010,this one too should managed to raise money through market operators.The modus operandi of these IPOs is mostly pump and dump where a few unscrupulous and shady brokers are responsible for managing the issue.With the stock market regulator SEBI refusing to crack down on these blatant manipulation,the pipeline of crappy small cap junk IPOs in the Indian stock market keeps growing.Thought that the current market crash would have removed them,but apparently not so as the junk IPO industry keeps growing stronger.This despite the more than 50% crash on issue day of Omkar Chemicals ( a junk IPO).Here are some of the notable negatives of the issue which has been given a 1 out of a 5 rating by rating agency CRISIL (not that the rating help the retail investors).
February 15, 2011
Insider Trading is quite rampant in India particularly in mid cap and small cap companies where promoters frequently collude with market operators in rigging up stock […]
February 14, 2011
This time India's Space Research Agency ISRO has come under the scanner for giving a sweetheart deal to a private company without bidding and tenders.This has resulted in another huge loss for the public treasury just like the Telecom Scam.The Space Agency comes under the direct authority of the Prime Minister and has further muddied the waters for the ruling coalition.With scam per day performance,the government is under tremendous pressure and losing its way in reforming the economy.Corruption in India is literally taking on Galactic Proportions and showing no signs of stopping.The Devas-Antrix Deal has also foreign investors which makes scrapping the contract for giving spectrum to Devas difficult.With India's Supreme Court breathing down its neck over prosecuting the guilty in the Telecom Scam,the government finds itself besieged.It can hardly afford opening another corruption frontier when it already finds its hands full with the existing scams.
February 14, 2011
Fineotex Chemicals (FCL) is a Maharashtra based small chemicals company which is coming out with an IPO for 4.2 million shares at Rs 60-72 to raise Rs 25-30 crores with a total market cap of around Rs 42-50 crores.The company has a 5000 tons plant and is expanding by 13000 tons.The company has little resources by way of cash and it seems strange that a Rs 15 crore company would raise money from the capital markets rather than raising more debt which seems low at around Rs 80 lakhs.Can't find much to say anything positive except that there are no lawsuits pending against the promoters.Here are the negatives.
Omkar Specialty Chemicals was a major disaster for all the investors who decided to gamble on small cap IPO junk.Gambling on FCL in this environment does not make any sense,would make more sense to gamble your money in a casino.In this market you would have a much better chance of returns.
February 10, 2011
India’s Stock Market has been amongst the worst performing market in the world in 2011 due to a number of converging issues.While Inflation and Interest Rate […]
February 10, 2011
In 2010,the Indian Stock Market boomed for junk IPOs with a number of low quality issues raising money.Most of these stocks made no sense from the valuation point of view and were clearly being manipulated by stock market operators in nexus with their promoters.However,it was possible for retail investors to gamble and make money in IPOs by applying and selling on the day the issue listed.If you held on then massive losses were in store as most of the IPOs are trading at less than half of their initial price.Now it seems that even this tactic has gone out of fashion with another low quality IPO Omkar Speciality Chemicals going 50% below its issue price.Note the Indian stock market has falled by more than 15% in the last month or so,with many of the operator driven stocks taking a big hit.This means that these manipulated stocks have little support and would fall to their true value which is a small percentage of their issue price.Hopefully we won't be seeing any more these crappy junk issues for a long time.
February 7, 2011
Indian Stocks Market are a very difficult place to invest despite claims to the contrary which will be made by institutional investors.The all pervasive corruption present amongst most of the company managements makes bottom up stock picking a tough call.Even institutional "smart" investors like Goldman,GMO frequently get tripped by fly by night operators.Market operators blatantly manipulate stocks while the primary market is a "pump and dump" heaven.However the Indian growth story has fooled fund managers from outside to keep investing into the story.I have written in the blog numerous pitfalls present in investing in India.Some of these are coming home to roost as the Indian stock markets have fallen by more than 10% in 2011 despite other markets making new highs.Here are the top 5 Headwinds facing the Indian markets in 2011.
January 25, 2011
Inflation in India is raging at double digit levels as it is in most of the other countries in Asia.While Food Inflation has been hogging the headlines as Onion Prices become costlier than the daily earnings of the majority of Indians,other commodities are becoming expensive as well.Tyre Companies in India have seen their margins and profits collapse on the back of higher natural rubber prices.This is despite the explosive growth being seen in the automobile sector in India.JK Tyres and Ceat reported their quarter results and both were equally bad with stock prices taking a major hit.Consumer giant HLL which is a subsidiary of the Unilever Group and the largest consumer company in India also saw its stock price tumble.HLL too has been hurt by higher input commodity costs.While volume growth was excellent,the margins got compressed as input prices increased faster than output prices.Note the Indian stock market has fallen more than 10% of its peak even as developed markets are seeing higher peaks.Other Asian markets like Indonesia,Thailand and others too have fallen as high inflation hurts the prospects of companies here.The Central Bank in India RBI raised the intrest rates by 25 bps which some consider as too low.Like other central banks in Asia,India too seems helpless to fight the inflationary pressures brought upon by the higher commodity prices fueled by Bernake money printing.
December 21, 2010
Dongfang Electric Corporation,China's largest power equipment producer has bagged major contracts in India.Dongfang Electric is the 3rd biggest Wind Turbine Producer in China as well and has managed to bag a 276 MW $203 billion WTG supply contract with Abhijeet Group .This is the first major contract wind in the Wind Equipment Sector for a Chinese company and could be start of a major trend.Dongfang has also won a small a massive $2.5 billion contract to supply 6. GW of super critical coal equipment to KSK Energy. Note Chinese companies have become the low cost leaders in the Wind Equipment Industry and sell much below Western competitors.At almost $700,000/MW,the Turbine order is a steal for the Abhijeet Group and cannot be matched by Indian or Western players.Leading WTG companies from the West like Vestas and Gamesa are reeling from Chinese competition and slowdown in Western markets.Suzlon too has been affected as Korean shipbuilders and Chinese wind producers have become major players.Using domestic content requirements and technology transfer,Chinese companies have become top global producers from zero presence just 5 years ago.
December 13, 2010
Utilities trying to spinoff their Renewable Energy Subsidiaries have faced a very tough 2011 with many of the plans being scrapped.The Utilities which have managed to list have done so at much reduced valuations and have seen their stock prices erode after listing.Enel Green Power which was the biggest Green Utility to IPO in 2010 managed to to so after massive delays and lowering its stock price 2 times.Orient Green Power in Indian and First Wind Holdings of USA which were pureplay Green Utilities also saw very tough times with First Wind being forced to scrap its capital raising plans.China's Datang and Huaneng Group which were planning to list their Green Subsidiaries in Hong Kong for a long time faced a big question as well.Both these large state owned utilities have huge wind power assets which are forecast to grow at a tremendous rate over the next decade.The prospects are good for both these green utilities as wind turbine prices have been falling as a result of sharp competition amongst WTG companies in China such as Ming Yang Power.
December 9, 2010
Indian Small Cap and Mid Cap Stocks got massacred today even as the rest of the global markets were up.There was no specific catalysts for the sharp sell off in the small cap space which was down more than 5% with a large number of stocks hitting circuit filters on their way down.FII and brokerage favorite mid cap stocks were the worst off declining by anywhere between 10-20%.Note India has seen a huge wave of scandals hitting the political and business spheres in the past couple of months.While Corruption is nothing new to India with India's Supreme Court calling "Corruption a Way of Life" ,the rising frequency has unnerved the investors.The Stock Market has also seen a number of scams hitting the news with well regarded stocks tanking by more than 50% in less than a week.Since its hard to explain all the scams that have been hitting India,I am listing out the blog posts explaining the scams here.
December 8, 2010
Punjab and Sind Bank is a National PSU (Public Sector Undertaking) which is coming with a Rs 480 crore IPO by selling 4 crore shares at around Rs 113-120.The Company is offering 18% of its equity in the offering which would give it a market capitalization of roughly Rs 2500 crore ($550 million) at the upper end of the price band.Note there are a large number of mid cap and large cap PSU banks listed on the Indian markets.Note most of the PSU banks have seen a very good bull run in the last year and a half significantly outperforming the rest of the market.However the last 3-4 months have been tough with a LIC Housing Finance Scandal implicating top PSU Bank Officials for taking Bribes for Loans.The rise in deposit rates and tight liquidity has also hurt the sentiment for PSU Bank stocks.However,Banking remains one of the best ways to play the Indian growth story as financial inclusion remains very low.PSU Banks in general trade at low valuations compared to the private bank peers and mid cap PSU banks at lower multiples than larger ones like SBI,Bank of Baroda and PNB.
Summary
Punjab and Sind Bank seems a no brainer due to its significant discount on its fair valuation.At 5x P/E and around 1.2x P/B ,Punjab and Sind Bank is being sold at a substantial discount to the rest of PSU banks which are lower quality in terms of growth and margins.There are some mitigating factors like the low NIM ratio however the valuation more than covers for that up.The only problem in case of the Punjab and Sind Bank IPO is going to be oversubscription.Like MOIL IPO which saw 55-60 times oversubscription,same thing could happen here also.
December 8, 2010
Now the Investigative Bureau (IB) has said that another stock market operator Rathod was colluding with promoters of agricultural companies like Ruchi Soya,Karuturi Global and KS Oils to rig stock prices.This was being done through various front companies and maverick investor C Shivasankaran was behind these moves.Note these companies have become the darling of brokerages and media being touted as the next big thing with vertical integration and acquisitions of agricultural land in Africa.The media hype that these companies got also makes one suspect that some of these firms were also involved in this scam.The Modus Operandi was again the same as followed by Dangi and Ashika group firms earlier.It remains to be seen if prosecution results in any jail time for any of these offenders.Generally nothing happens in corruption scandals in India as a SC Judge recently note that corruption had become a way of life.
December 7, 2010
India has been plagued with numerous corruption scandals being exposed in the last few months.While a number of such scandal like the Adarsh Land Scam,Commonwealth Scams,Stock Market Scam,Stock Market Scam,Housing Finance Scam have been written about in this blog,the spate refuses to stop.With India's Chief Vigilance Officer calling 30% of Indians as utterly corrupt and even the Supreme Corrupt calling corruption in India "mind boggling",it is not a surprise.2G Telecom Scam Prime Suspect Telecom Minister Raja has come into the spotlight again for threatening a High Court Judge in a CBI case related to an eduction scam.The background relates to a High Court Judge of Tamil Nada accusing a Union Minister of influencing a decision of the court.This created a huge ruckus as the said Judge refused to name the Minister.India's Judiciary is one of the more powerful institutions in the country and considered much more trustworthy than the other 2 arms executive and the legislature.The Agriculture Minister brazenly supports favored Business Interest while another Minister was sent packing off after unethically supporting a cricket franchise
December 7, 2010
Midfield Industries which is a small low quality company did an IPO around 3 months ago at a very expensive price that did not justify the […]
December 6, 2010
Here Honda which is a Joint Venture between Japanese Automajor Honda and the Hero Group of India is restructuring such that Honda will exit the JV.Note Hero Honda has been immensely successful over the last 2 years riding a vehicle boom in India.While other autos stocks like Mahindra,Tata Motors have risen a lot,Hero Honda has been the star with its leading marketshare in the motorcycle market of India.The terms of the deal in which Honda will sell its 26% stake in the company to the Hero Group is very damaging to minority investors in the JV.According to the deal proposed by the Hero Group and accepted in principle by Honda,the Hero Group will get the 26% at a sharp discount from its market price and in return Honda will get much higher royalties for the next 3 years.This is an open and blatant looting of the minority investors.Note the beneficiaries of this deal will be the promoters at the expense of minority investors since they will have to bear the burden of much higher royalties in the future.
December 4, 2010
Ravi Kumar Distilleries (RKDL) is another low quality company coming out with an IPO to take advantage of the current bullish conditions of the Indian Stock Market.It is not the first junk IPO nor is going to be the last ,it is an addition to the list of low quality companies which have given huge losses to investor unfortunate enough to subscrible.Note more than 50% of the companies coming out with an IPO over the last year are trading well below issue price.Recent Stock Market Scandals show the complicity of market operators,shady promoters and compromised financial institutions.Note the other recent IPOs by the investment banker for RKDL IPO have resulted in massive losses for investors.It would take a miracle for this one to prove a success.Ravi Kumar Distilleries (RKDL), plans to raise Rs 74 crore through its Initial Public Offer (IPO) and has fixed the price-band at between Rs 56-64 per share for the issue.Here are some of the main features of the IPO
December 3, 2010
Renewable Energy has faced a very bad year in 2010 at least in terms of stock prices.The failure of the Copenhagen Climate Meet in 2009 and the complete indifference towards the Cancun Meet in Mexico has made the Green Energy Sector one of the worst performing ones.Wind Energy has been the worst hit with falling gas prices and falling subsidies with USA and Europe the worst hit.Other sectors like Solar Energy and Biofuels have not got much love from the markets either.In fact major financial insitutions have sharply reduced their Renewable Energy Holdings with Short Interest Rising to a Record High amongst Green Companies like American Semiconductor,Jinko Solar etc.However despite the ascendancy of the Republicans in USA and the cold shoulder given to climate and energy bill,this might mark a bottom for Renewable Energy
December 3, 2010
India's Stock Market Regulator has been hardly proactive in cracking down on stock market manipulation except for some inefficient scolding.It has banned some companies and a stock market operator for artificially rigging up stock prices through a nefarious scheme so that the stock could placed through QIBs at higher prices.Recently GMO,Goldman,Morgan and Fidilety got conned by a fly by night Indian financier who managed to place $100 million of his company's shares a hugely inflated price.A cursory due diligence by these high flying financial institutions would have shown his business model to a sham.Realty Investing in India is always a dangerous game with real estate firms involved in all sorts of corruption scandals.Akruti City whose shares had seen a massive rise some months ago has been implicated by SEBI for rigging up its share price with the help of a "stock market operator" Dangi.Some other firms like Murli Industries,Welspun Corp have been found to be part of this corruption game as well.Broking Firms like Ashika and Anand Rathi were broking for the Operator.Note SEBI has not done much except banning these firms.I would have though that these white collar crimes should be punished more stringently.Banning some entities without any jail time will lead to more and more of these stock rigging in the future.
December 1, 2010
Manganese Ore India Limited (MOIL),the government owned miner has seen massive oversubscription of its IPO being subscribed 55 times and should easily reach around 60 times.I had written that the MOIL IPO price of Rs 340-375 makes the valuation hugely attractive which would lead to oversubscription.The fundamentals of this stock easily command a much higher price given its low cost leadership position in the fast growing Indian market.The valuation of the company was compelling even at a 25% higher price point as I had written earlier but at around Rs 6300 crore,MOIL had become a no brainer.
While some of the oversubscription could also have been due to people's expectation of oversubscription,I think most of the demand was fundamental in nature.The Indian primary market is showing huge demand for quality stocks.Junk IPOs unless they are not manipulated are showing weak demand .Somewhat doubtful IPO of Claris Lifesciences was forced to decrease its price by 20% as there were not enough takers for the issue.
November 26, 2010
India's new Corruption Scandal involving a Housing Loan Scam involving Bribes paid to India's top public bank officials has ensnared top notch financial institutions in the West as well.The whos-who of Wall Street got dazed by spectacular growth and profits of a 3 year old financial outfit in India which had been built on a foundation of lies and bribers.This Corruption Scam was started by a Financial Outfit called Money Matter Financial Services which started as a 2 person outfit.However through arranging of debt to big corporate houses by paying bribes to top officials of India's large government owned institutions such as Bank of Indian,PNB and others,the outfit saw its share price increase by 7 times.
November 25, 2010
I have been repeatedly pointing out the dangers of investing in Real Estate Companies as more and more skeletons tumble from the closet.Its an open secret that Real Estate Companies in India fudge their Financial Statements through Creative Accounting and other means such that even Fund Managers don't invest in the Realty Sector.Major Real Estate Companies like IREO and Emaar MGF have played prominent role in some of the major corruption scams rocking the country.Now more big Real Estate Firms have been implicated for their role in other corruption scandals.DB Realty a Mumbai based Realty Company has been found to be a prime suspect in the LIC Housing Finance Scam where the CBI has arrested.Some construction companies like Man Infrastructure,HCC have also become a target of investigation.
November 24, 2010
LIC Housing Finance is one of India's Largest Home Lenders with a huge distribution network around the country.LIC Housing Finance Stock has been on a roll propelled by fast growth of the company and the housing loan growth sector.The Company was a relatively safe investment being promoted by Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) which is India's largest insurance company owned fully by the government.The Foreign Ownership of the LIC Housing Finance Shareholding is quite high at 40%+ due to its relative safety and high growth.However the Central Bureau of Investigations (CBI) raids on the company has resulted in a sharp 20% price fall.The company's top officials have been implicated in misappropriation of money and home loan scams along with a company called Money Matters.
November 24, 2010
Note most of these companies fundamentals don''t justify even half of the price at which these stocks were issued at.However these companies keep coming with increasing frequency even as the Regulator SEBI chides investment bankers without doing anything real to prevent the retail investors being defrauded again and again.Note Gravita India is another stock which is undergoing a "pump" currently .I expect it to be dumped shortly as the fundamentals of the company are pretty sorry compared to the valuation it is commanding.The illegal grey market of IPO's , the small market cap of the company and the lax attitude of the Stock Market Regulator has made the Indian Stock Market a heavily biased casino.Here is an interesting article which has analyzed that the only way to beat the shenanigans of the "operators" and the promoters is to sell out on the very day of listing.