Stock Market
November 23, 2010
The main difference between MOIL and Coal India is the number of shares being issued.Note MOIL is going to raise only $300 million compared to the $3.5 billion raised Coal India.CIL had gotten 15 times over subscription which implies that MOIL can 150 times over subscription based on CIL subscription numbers.While the MOIL IPO Price is very attractive,the massive potential over-subscription would hardly lead to much allotment.However the government had done a good job in pricing the PSU share sales at a decently low price leaving something on the table for investors.Coal India IPO was done at a substantial discount to international peers making it a big success.Shipping Corporation of India is also coming out with a FPO where the pricing will be the key.
November 23, 2010
Shipping Corporation of India (SCI),the government owned carrier is coming out with a Follow on Public Offering (FPO) of 84,690,730 Equity Shares to divest 18% of its equity which will be equally shared by the company and the government.At the current price the company will raise around Rs 600 crores for the company with another Rs 600 crore going to the government. SCI is India's largest shipping line by tonnage deriving most of its revenues from oil/gas transport.SCI like other shipping companies has faced a very bad 2009 due to the sharp contraction in world trade and dropping in shipping rates.However results have started to improve with the improvement in the world economy and it is returning to its normalized sales and profits.The valuation of the company is not expensive according to normalized profits however note that shipping sector in general does not enjoy high p/e due to the cyclical and capex intensive nature of the business.The pricing of SCI has not been decided as of now,in the secondary market it trades at Rs 156 which is near its 52 week low in anticipation of the share dilution due to the FPO.Here is a list of the pros and cons.
November 22, 2010
Claris Lifesciences is one of the few decent size pharmaceutical companies coming out with an IPO of around Rs 300 crores ($65mm) in the price band of Rs 278-293 which would give it a market cap of around Rs 1400 crore.Most of the money would be used in manufacturing expansion as the company is still in the capex phase spending around $20-30mm annually.There is a lot to like in the stock except for the management.The Pharma Sector is one where India has done extremely well boosted by its low cost qualified labor something like the IT sector.The Indian Pharma Sector excel in the Generics Category which has been receiving increasing global attention for reducing ballooning health-care costs.India posseses a definite competitive advantage in the Generics Category.Here is the list of pros and cons for Claris LifeSciences
November 20, 2010
Deflating Developed Countries are fueling Inflation in Developing Ones with ultra low interest rates.QE2 has been heavily criticized around the world due to the dangers of it creating asset bubbles in emerging markets as yield hungry investors look for growth at any price.With hundred of billions flooding emerging debt and equity markets,the situation has become volatile for a lot of countries.Brazil has already seen its currency skyrocket in the last 2-3 years due to the huge spread between its bond yields and the US interest rates.With carry investors able to make around 10%,Brazil remains a favorite market for the inflow of dollars.Other countries like Thailand,Malaysia,Indonesia have seen their stock markets rallying to all time highs as well.Many of these countries have already imposed capital controls earlier.Now they are increasing further,as monetary authorities rush to close the gates.
November 18, 2010
India's Fast Growing Economy based on Consumption rather than Exports has made it a Darling for International Fund Managers.When the whole world is suffering from some structural crisis or the other,India seems an like an oasis in the desert.However like a Mirage,the Governance and Regulatory Shortcomings make India look much better than what it is.$90 Billion of Record Foreign Inflows have been invested into India mostly into the booming Stock Market even as Indian Retail investors have fled.The dichotomy is perhaps explained by the problems faced by people on the ground who have a better sense than Fund Managers sitting in their Glass Towers in Singapore,New York and London.Insitutional Investors in India are mostly Compromised or Incompetent in my view herding into the Indian Markets dazed by the positive aspects of the Indian Economy while glossing over the Risks.Crushing Income Disparity where a $2 Billion Home is constructed while 80% of Indians live on less than $2 day,Pervasive Corruption with Billions being Swindled in Telecom and Land Scams,Massive Red Tape and Policy Bankruptcy has been ignored.However these Risks remain as can be seen by the SKS Microfinance Debacle.
November 17, 2010
Giant Chinese Utilities Datang and Huaneng are doing roadshows for the IPOs of their Renewable Energy Arms which would raise more than Billion Dollars Each.Note Green Utilities have become a separate Green Investment Class with lots of Asian and European Utilities already doing an IPO of their Green Subsidiaries or are in the process of doing so.However 2010 has been a bad year for Green Energy Stocks and Green Utilities have been no different.While First Wind Holdings a pure play USA Wind Farm Developer failed to get listed despite lowering its Issue Price,Indian Orient Green Power and Italian Enel Green Power have performed miserably even after listing at a much lowered stock price.Despite the negative sentiment towards Green Utilities mainly due to the Headwinds being faced by Wind Industry in 2010,Green Utilities are one of the safest ways to invest in the Alternative Energy Sector given the nascent highly volatile nature of the industry.
November 16, 2010
Valuation
MOIL has a Net Worth of Rs 1860 crores and a NAV of around Rs 110/share.The Company will probably earn around Rs 700 crore this fiscal year after doing Rs 465 crores last year (which was a bad year for the industry).Operating Cash Flow has been generally higher than the Net Profit leading to improved cash position over the last 4 years.The Capital Requirements of the Business is quite low leading to high Return Metrics.If the Government sells the 20% stake at Rs 1500 crore that would give the company a market cap of Rs 7500 crore.Taking out the Rs 1700 crore in cash would make the company be valued at 3.2x BV and 8-9x P/E.This is a substantial discount to Global Mining Companies.
Summary
Like Coal India Limited,MOIL looks like a very safe commodity investment at a cheap valuation.With growing Indian Demand,MOIL can hardly miss continuing on a steady 10-15% earnings growth over the next 4-5 years.If the commodity prices flare up again like 2008 due to QE2,then MOIL provides a big upside as well.Its a good investment for investors looking to invest in safe mining plays.With government ownership,the typical Indian management risk is also greatly mitigated.
November 16, 2010
India has seen a rash of junk IPO offerings in the past year due to the strong bullish conditions.Most of these IPOs have managed to raise money based on stock market shenanigans by Market "Operators".More than 50% of these micro cap IPO junk has given negative returns but the flow seems unabated as India has become an IPO Pump and Dump Heaven.Aster Silicates,Tarapur Transformers,Prakash Steelage,Sea TV are some of the microcap junk that I have written about earlier.R.R.P Constructions joins the infamous bandwagon trying to sucker money from retail investors.The Company is expensively prices,slow growing (compared to other construction peers),has management that you would not want to trust a dollar with,high debt and still wants you to pay ~25x P/E.There are many better opportunities in the Construction and Infrastructure Space in India right now for example Tecpro Systems and VA Tech Wabag.Here are some R.R.P Construction stock negatives gleaned from its DRHP as I could not find any positive about the company.
November 13, 2010
India's Stock Market remains a heaven for Pump and Dump Operators of IPOs.Despite some high quality IPOs in recent times like Coal India,the majority of the IPOs being done are by fly by night operators and promoters.Their is little justification for the valuation and the subscription numbers.But it is a lucrative trade for shady operators who easily manage to manipulate small cap IPOs leaving huge losses for retail investors.The stock market regulator SEBI strangely remains asleep at the wheel despite some blatant pump and dump issues.More than 50% of the IPOs in the Indian stock market over the past year are below their issue prices.But there has been no investigation and prosecution over these white collar crimes just seem gentle scolding.Like the totally infamous and ineffectual SEC of the US Stock Market,SEBI looks more and more like a toothless tiger.Despite some laudable reforms in favor of retail investors,it needs to act more quickly and reform much more.
October 25, 2010
Wind Energy Companies in the Developed Markets have taken it on the chin in 2010.Companies dependent on the Wind Energy Markets in the West like Vestas,Gamesa,Suzlon,Iberdola Renewables etc. have had a very bad 2010 as their stocks price keep finding new lows.A Combination of Tough Financing Markets,Low Gas Prices and Declining Electricity Demand has made the livers of Wind Executives hellish in recent times.More competition in terms of Chinese heavyweights like Sinovel,Goldwind and Koean shipbuidlers precludes an easy recovery.Green IPOs in recent times have faced huge volatility with some managing success while others have led to huge losses.China's Ming Yang Power which is a Chinese Turbine Manufacturer has seen a 30% erosion of its IPO stock price of $14 as it was priced a tad too aggressively.First Wind which is a bit different being a Wind Energy Developer similar to renewable energy developers like Enel Green Power,EDF Novellas might face a frosty reception as well.Its not a good time to be in the wind energy business as increasing competition and declining demand cause problems.Note John Deere sold off its Renewable Energy Arm for a bargain as US Climate Change Legislation seems stuck in an everlasting limbo.Without a Federal RPS and an expiring 30% Treasury Cash Grant for Wind Farms,2011 is very uncertain for Wind Energy in the USA.
October 14, 2010
Coal India IPO the biggest primary market-raising company in the history of the markets has raised a huge amount of investor interest.The investor is barraged with […]
October 13, 2010
42% of World's Hungry Children Live in India
In contrast to the exponential growth of wealth of India's upper classes,the poor continue to eke out a miserable existence mired in hunger and constantly facing starvation.Globalization of Agriculture has further increased Food Price Inflation making their positive even more precarious.According to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI),India slipped 2 places to be ranked in the 67th place amongst 88 nations in the Hunger Index.Despite a stellar economic performance over the last 20 years or so and sharp rise in per capita GDP,India remains one of the poorest nations on earth.It ranks below even Nepal,Pakistan,Sudan with 48% of India's children stunted due to lack of food.The report is a strong indictment of growth policies which has made its children mostly hungry and stunted.Other strongly growing economies like Brazil and China have performed much better than India.Time for India's government to radically change the structure of India's economic growth.Despite promotion of policies like NREGA and midday meals for poor,rank corruption and leakage has led to India being the hungriest nation on earth.
October 12, 2010
Indian IPO Rules allows the Merchant Bankers of the Issue to give favored institutional clients a part of the IPO even before the issue starts.This has the advantage for both parties as funds get a guaranteed portion of the IPO and Bankers can tout the quality of the company.However you would have to question these "Anchor Investors' on how they invest in such IPOs.Prestige Estates a Realty Company coming out with an IPO is another low quality company to come out with a high valuation.So finding 21 Anchor Investors is a surprise.Despite the Real Estate Market being avoided by Fund Mangers due to questionable practice,23 Funds have found it worthwhile to add Prestige Estates to their portfolio.Makes you wonder if Institutional Investors are Plain Incompetent ,Compromised or Both
October 12, 2010
Prestige Estates is an Indian Real Estate Company with its operations focused in the southern part of India mainly in the techie city of Bangalore.The company is one on the long list of Realty Companies which have been waiting impatiently to raise money from the Stock Markets trying to pay off their debts.It is raising around Rs 1200 crores or $250mm .Oberoi Realty was a decent Realty Stock as far as the Sector goes which managed good subscription numbers in the last week.With "animal spirits" returning fueled by Bernanke's Helicopter Policy expect more such shoddy Realty issues to hit the market.Note the Sector is an investor minefield with even well connected Fund Managers not trusting the financial statements published by these companies.With the Indian Stock Market already featuring a wide variety in terms of quality and quantity of Realty Stocks,Prestige Estates brings no difference and on analysis seems easy to avoid.Here are some features to this company
Summary
Prestige Estates is another low quality shady highly indebted Realty Company which should be strictly be avoided.It defies any simple analysis because of its convoluted structure and cross holdings.The Company Sales have been stagnant and Margins Low and it has high concentration risk as well.The Management inspires no confidence at all and is a typical example of the badly managed Real Estate Sector in India.Should be avoided at all costs by investors.Note 5 of the last 9 IPOs in India in the last month are giving losses to investors.This promises to be no different given the fundamentals.
October 11, 2010
Coal India is coming out with India's biggest IPO offering in the Stock Market History.The company seems fundamentally strong on almost all aspects and is also pricing itself at a significant discount to its global peers.Both superficially and deep down,the analysis points CIL to be a very safe investment at a cheap valuation.Other analysts are also coming to the same conclusion,as Rating Agency has given CIL a 5/5 Rating which is probably the first in the history of IPO Grading .In order to give a more balanced perspective and avoid herd tendencies,I am listing out what the risks and negatives are with this company.Note this does not make me negative on the stock on which I am very positively biased.It is just to give investors the other side of the debate which I think general analysis will lack.
Despite the above Risks , I think that Coal India is one of the best quality stocks to come out in India's Primary Markets.However investors should be wary of the risks which will be glossed over by the mainstream media and brokerages . As with every investment however safe it might look,there are risks.This does not mean that investors should be fearful of every investment.It is by being aware of the risks,that prudent risk management can be done which is essential to successful investing.
October 10, 2010
In the last 4-5 years, the real estate investment community seems to have been a victim of optimism bias. This is most exemplified in the severe under estimation of time/duration required for construction/operation of project investments. For fund managers who have made investments in major parts of Asia (China, Vietnam, India, Indonesia) in the last 4-5 years, under estimation of timelines is the one area in which they all concede to have erred. The experience has shown how easy it is to fall into the optimism bias trap and start believing that once the finance is secured and the contracts awarded, things just roll on in an automode. Following are some of interesting reasons (these are all true) by which projects have gone significantly delayed
It is believed that the only section of the population that isn't susceptible to the optimism bias are people with major depressive disorder. Probably funds should consider hiring some of them.
October 7, 2010
The Crap continues to hit the Indian Primary Market with another Junk Microcap trying to raise $11 mm from the market.The company will dilute around 48% […]
October 5, 2010
Real Estate Companies have been trying to raise money from the primary markets for a long time.The depressed markets and the negative sentiment about the real estate sector had prevented that from happening.Realty companies are known for their "creative accouting" shenanigans and their financial statements are not even trusted by Fund Managers.However the Current Bull Run has sparked renewed interest in all sectors even depressed ones like Realty.This has presented a golden oppurtunity for Real Estate Companies to do IPOs.While the last 2 Real Estates issues Jaypee Infratech and Nitesh Estates were disasters,this ones looks better than the last 2 lemons.Oberio Realty has good profits,cash flows and zero debt.This makes their issue much better,however the Realty Sector is a dangerous one to play because of the corruption that pervades the entire industry.So you make an investment here not really knowing what you are getting into.Not a Warren Buffet Investment by a long shot.The upside is limited with huge amount of downsides in the form of unknowns.Here are some of the features of Oberio Realty
October 5, 2010
India suffers from a lack of variety as well as depth in ETFs compared to developed markets such as USA.Only Benchmark Asset Management Company (AMC) has seriously invested in the ETF space and its NiftyBeES ETF which follows India's Nifty Index is the most successful one so far.India's Infrastructure Sector has attracted a lot of investor interest given the stupendous $500 Billion Investment planned over the next 5 years.This will be 2.5x the investment in the past 5 years and will help India's crumbling ports,roads,railways,power and communications sectors to gear up to India's 8-9% GDP growth.Recently EGShares launched INXX which also markets itself as a play on India's Infrastructure Growth in the US Markets.However that ETF was found wanting in a lot of areas.The new InfraBeES ETF launched by Benchmark seems much better than INXX and has been launched in the Indian markets.This ETF is based on CNX Infrastructure Index and its 1 unit will be 1/10th of that Index.Here are some of the key features of this new ETF
September 29, 2010
2) Expensive Valuation - Despite Negative Cash Flows for 3 out of the last 5 years,Cyclical Industry and Customer Concentration Risk,the Management wants around 35x P/E Valuation for their company.This is quite amazing as I would not consider the company a Buy at even 20x.However even shadier and crappier issues have managed to listed.Prakash Steelage,Aster Silicates are all examples of investors trying their hand at such Junk.
3) Customer Concentration - The Company is dependent on a few customers like Tata Motors and Indian Railways for most of its revenues.Competition for supplying Wagons to Indian Railways has increased drastically with even State Owned Companies joing the fray.CV is a cyclical industry and margisn in the CV Body Building Business are nothing great.The Company has failed to show consistent margins in the business
Summary
This is one of the more crappier issues to hit the market.Investors should not be even considering subscribing to the issue given the bad management history,cyclical sector and competition.Margins are nothing great.Growth has been inconsistent and the stock is overvalued even at half of its asking price.
September 27, 2010
India has seen a flurry of IPO’s in the current month of September 2010 as the companies IPOing in this month will not have to submit […]
September 25, 2010
India's Stock Market Regulator SEBI has castigated the investment bankers for giving investors the short end of the stick.The regulator accused the I-Banking community of only looking out for the interests of the promoters by pricing primary issues too high.The proof is in the fact that 62% of the IPOs in the last 3 years are trading at below issue price despite the fact that Indian markets are near an all time high.Bad practises such as charging zero fees from big band government divestment,unethical if not illegal promotion of IPO companies through planted ads in newspapers were some of the other things that SEBI found objectionable.
September 18, 2010
Nokia's Stock Price has fallen by more than 50% in the last 2 years and have stayed at the same level despite a huge 40% Global Mobile Marketshare.Despite a Tech Resurgence,Nokia's stock has wallowed in its all time lows.Repeated Restructuring,Losing out to competition in India,Failure to keep up with Apple has made this a "pity stock".However its recent deal with Intel to launch Meego,a new CEO and N8 had given hopes to Nokia Faithful.However teething problems like the exit of the Smartphone Chief and delays in N8 has made those hopes recede.Also Nokia has unresolved Software issues as it tries to balance between 2 competing platforms of Symbian and Meego.It has decide on 1 platform and put all its effort there.Customers are cagey about buying phones with Operating Systems without a large Developer Support and Apps.The Ovi Store with just 13k apps is no match to iPhone's 250k apps.Its time for Nokia to put renewed efforts in order to resurrect its declining fortunes.
September 17, 2010
Eros International Media Limited (EIML) is one of the biggest owners and distributors of Indian Films.It owns a Film Library of around 1000 Indian Films including some inconic titles.The Company is involved in the business of sourcing,creating and distributing media content which is mainly films.It has grown at a fast clip in the past 3-4 years though the last year was slower on account of the GFC.It is a part of the Eros Group Plc and has till now grown mainly through the financial backing and networking of its parent.There is a lot to like about this IPO and very little to dislike.The valuation on a P/E basis is also not expensive at around 19x.Given that the Indian economy is booming with Entertainment one of the hottest sectors,this is a good play on this sector.Here are some of the highlights from their DHRP
September 15, 2010
Shady Management - Income Tax Raids on the company and its promoters found $1.3 million in unaccounted cash and jewelery,cash and documents were impounded.The promoters have been accused of falsifying accounts,evading tax and Registrar of Companies (ROC) and Service Tax Department have also served notices.
Expensive Valuation - The company will come out with a valuation of P/E of 30-32x which is more expensive than other listed education companies.At least Prakash Steelage with a corrupt management had the decency to come with a discount
Summary
The only thing to like about this company is the sector that it operates in.However Shady Management,Super High Valuation and Regulatory Risk makes this company a strictly no subscribe.However given the shenanigans being openly perpetrated in the Indian Stock Market don't be surprised to see a 100% Listing Gain.
September 15, 2010
The Indian Stock Market is consistently making new highs as Foreign Money Surges into India it its hunger for yield.FIIs this year have invested almost $15 Billion into the Stock Markets as Indian Economy grows at a rapid 8%+ growth.Along with Thailand,Malaysia,Indonesia and other emerging markets,Indian Stock Markets are approaching Bubble Territory of the late 2007 and early 2008 days.Substantial Risks are being ignored by the Herd Mentality of Portfolio Managers who are lapping up India's Growth Story.Domestic Money on the other hand has been very circumspect during the last 1 year.Domestic Mutual Funds have become aggressive sellers in the last leg of this rally while Retail Investors are Bailing out Enmasse.
Retail Investors have sold around $2.5 Billion of Stocks in the last 1 year when the Stock Market has catapulted by almost 25%.This is one of the strangest bull markets as Indian investors remain largely skeptical of this rally.
September 14, 2010
Why would anyone want to invest in such a sorry stock is beyond me but I have seen even worse companies list so don't get surprised.The company is basically is using all the investor's money to become a decent business.Its current business with less than $1 million in fixed assets and $500k in profits is not worth putting money into.So if you are a super high risky investor then this stock would make sense for you.
September 11, 2010
These risks are real and not going away any time soon.They are waiting tinderboxes which could flare up with a small spark.India has managed a substantial premium in valuations over other emerging markets over its Consumption Led Growth.Institutional Investors know no better than common ones as was apparent from the 2008 Lehman Crisis.They are playing the Emerging Market Game till the Music Lasts.Make Sure you are not the one who finds no chair when the Music Stops.
September 9, 2010
India has divested small equity stakes in a number of state owned Commodity Companies this year and the trend is expected to continue in the future […]
September 8, 2010
It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that stocks are being manipulated to the detriment of the small investors.Experienced people in SEBI would surely know of such manipulation but they are not doing anything.The Prakash Steelage has followed the "Pump and Dump" Script to the letter with the stock in the process of being dumped.The stock fell 13% for no apparent reason and I expect it to soon fall far below its issue price.Note the Promoters of this Stock have already been convicted of Tax Evasion.