Thin Film
February 18, 2011
Solar Energy is the fastest growing renewable energy source in the world and has shown tremendous growth in the last 2-3 years.This has been driven by a more than 50% decline in Solar PV costs which continues to decline further.With further increase in energy prices,Solar Power is becoming closer and closer to retail electricity price.Not only is the price declining,solar power is clean energy a most valuable feature in these days of accelerating climate change.Solar Energy has already reached grid parity in places like Italy and Hawaii and will do so in more places in the coming 2-3 years.The industry is a dynamic one and the list of top solar companies can change quickly.Rapid Technology Change and Fast Declining Costs have pushed out most of the Top 10 companies of 5 years ago and brought in new ones mainly Chinese.Here is a list of the Top Solar Panel Producers in the World.
February 14, 2011
Moser Bear,the Indian Solar Company was one of the first customers for the now extinct Applied Materials a-Si SunFab Technology.The company had invested in a number of solar technologies quite early on,but has not managed to succeed in a single one much like the Abu Dhabi promoted Masdar.The Jack of all Trades strategy has come undone for both of these companies.While Chinese and some US companies have prospered despite stiff competition,most of the others have sunk.While most of AMAT customers have written off their investment in thin film equipment and factories,Moser Baer has not done so.But from its current action it seems to have given up at least in its thin film ambitions.Moser Bear has contracted for 25 MW of First Solar thin film modules.Note First Solar is the biggest thin film producer of solar panels and a direct competitor to Moser Baer.So it seems that Moser Baer has pretty much abandoned its thin film panels since if it itself does not use its own panels,don't think a 3rd party would do so.
February 10, 2011
Moser Baer made ambitous plans of making it big in solar energy but has not managed to execute successfully in its plans.Despite pouring millions of dollars into differents parts of solar energy,Moser Baer has failed to make a mark even domestically leave alone globally.However India's JNNSM has given a fresh lease of life to Moser Baer's solar investments.The company has managed to win a number of system projects which will be supplied by its inhouse solar panel production.Now the company is also entering into manufacture of low value add items where competition is expected to be much lower.The company is going to build a 1300 MW Solar Module Junction Box Plant to supply India's fast growing solar capacity.
February 10, 2011
European companies have largely been absent in the Indian solar energy scene except for Siemens,Areva which are moving aggressively in the whole green energy sector.Note US and Chinese companies have already established solid beacheads in the country.India's solar energy sector is poised for exponential growth in the coming decade further boosted by JNNSM.European home markets are maturing for European companies and India is the rising star,so it is essential that the sales teams of the Europeans get in early.Schott Solar is one of the biggest manufacturer of solar panels in Germany.Though not big on the world stage,Schott Solar is present in large parts of the Solar PV and Solar Thermal Supply Chain.It recently established a JV with Chinese company Hareon and plans to build 700 MW of solar panel capacity in emerging markets around the world.It has won a contract to supply 20 MW of thin film modules to Indian Solar Company Premier Solar with 10 MW of supply in 2010 and 10 MW in 2011.Note Premier Solar is a small company and seems they are building the 20 MW for a state government and not under the JNNSM scheme.Note,Schott is not a big name in solar either and its thin film modules are certainly not famous either so makes a good combination.Solar Energy in India finally sees entry of European companies Abengoa and Schott
December 21, 2010
France recently halted its solar subsidy program for 3 months for solar installations under 3 kw as it was deluged with a large number of applications.Solar Feed in Tariffs are quite generous for certain type of solar panel installations like BIPV and greenhouses.This combined with rapidly falling solar panel prices primarly due to low cost Chinese manufacturing has made the business extremely lucrative.Note France is not the first country to see a massive flood of solar applications.Spain,Czech,Germany,Australia have faced problems with solar feed in tariff programs mainly because of poor design by slow moving bureaucrats.However most of these countries have never blamed cheap Chinese panel imports for their badly designed programs.Germany which is the undisputed solar market leader did for a while raise the Chinese bogey but it was for a short while.Anyone with a little understanding of the solar industry would know that almost 50% of the value is created in installation which is all done locally.Also most of the polysilicon raw material is made in the West as also most of the equipment used in producing panels in China.
December 9, 2010
Solar Energy in India at the Federal Level is facing massive problems but the state level initiatives are pushing ahead.Gujarat has been at the forefront of promoting Solar Energy recently setting aside a 3000 acre site for 500 MW of Solar Power Generation.First Solar,the Cd-Te Leader and Producer of the largest number of Panels in 2009, has got an order from Acme Telepower for 15 MW Plant to be constructed in March 2011.Note First Solar is the also the lowest cost producer of solar panels in the world currently and looks to be so in the foreseen future as well.First Solar is expanding capacity by almost 50% in 2011 after a slow 2010 and looks upon India as one of its most important markets.
November 25, 2010
Boeing,the US Aircraft and Military Equipment Supplier had decided to sell its high efficiency solar cells in 2011.Note Boeing Subsidiary had created a record a couple of years ago with a 39.2% multi junction solar cell.These cells are primarily used in spacecraft where low space requirements require the use of high efficiency cells without major cost considerations.Spectrolab has continued to improve on the efficiency of the cells reaching 41.6% in a NREL Lab Test.Boeing has claimed a 60% marketshare of the space solar cell market and hopes to replicate that success on Earth as well.Boeing had earlier said that it would set up a 300 MW capacity by 2010 and market solar cells to CPV companies such as SolFocus.Will Boeing be Successful at Selling High Efficiency Spectrolab Germanium Solar Cells
November 20, 2010
Solar Panels has suddenly become one of the biggest industrial consumers of the Silver Metal in 2010.The massive growth of the solar industry has surprised analysts and forecasters alike and caused surprising demand in the most unlikely of places.With 15-17 GW of Solar Panel Production estimated in 2010,the silver consumption will be around 65 million ounces or 1800 tons.With production of around 21000 tons,the Solar Industry is now responsible for around 9% of the global Silver production.Note Despite Silver touching new record highs,it has not affected the solar prices much which have continued to decline by almost 50% in the last couple of years.
November 16, 2010
India has a huge potential in Solar Energy Generation which is being strongly supported by the Federal Government under the JNNSM Scheme and by individual States […]
November 15, 2010
First Solar,the US based Cadmium Tellurium (Cd-Te) is the lowest cost panel producer in the world today if you don't include any penalty for low efficiency.Even if you penalize the Cd-Te Technology for its lower efficiency vis-a-vis the higher efficiency crystalline technology,First Solar is clearly the leader with a core cost of 74c/watt.The company has a roadmap of reducing the cost to 52c/watt by 2014 and given its track record it seems quite achievable.In Cd-Te,some new competitors have claimed even lower costs than First Solar but they have yet to prove it in large scale production.General Electric,Abound Solar are some of the other Cd-Te players which are planning commercial production in a year or two.But with around 2 GW of capacity,they will have a lot of catching up to do.
November 13, 2010
Solar PV Technology have made a huge advance in the last 2-3 years leading to a demand explosion with more than 100% growth forecast this year.Crystalline PV Technology as well as Thin Film Technology like CIGs and CdTe have reduced their costs drastically.While Solar PV still requires generous government subsidies for their growth,grid parity has come very close.Solar PV Technology has become economically competitive in parts of Italy where a unique combination of high electricity rates and sunshine have made Solar PV Technology very attractive.Costs are being reduced at more than 10% per year which would make Solar PV competitive in 2-3 years in most parts of the world.However mainstream and reputed forecasters and companies like Boston Consulting Group remain blind and ignorant to this.BCG in a recent report has said that biofuels and Concentrated Solar Thermal (CSP) Technology will become competitive.I have issues with both of these technologies.
October 26, 2010
California and the Federal Government have recently approved a number of big Solar Thermal Plants totaling around 2800 MW.These plants utilize Concentrated Solar Thermal (CSP) Technology and uses mirrors and towers instead of normal PV panels.The haste with which these plants are being permitted and approved is mainly due to the expiry of the Treasury Grant Scheme by end of 2010.According the the American Stimulus rules,only Green Projects which have broken ground or spent 5% of their costs would be eligible for the 30% Cash Subsidy.6 Huge Solar Thermal Plants have been approved with the biggest Blythe plant being the most recent.The capital costs for these plants are extremely high at around $6/watt which makes me question their economics.PV panels can be installed at around $3-3.5 /watt which is around 40-50% lower.Despite the higher capacity factors for Solar Thermal Plants and their ability to store energy for a short period,the cost difference is too large.
October 24, 2010
Concentrated Photovoltaic (CPV) Technology Gaining Ground
Concentrated Photovoltaic (CPV) Technology has found some favor in 2010 with some major projects and investments coming its way.CPV Technology which is a poorer cousin of its more illustrious PV Technologies like c-Si and Thin Film has found some attention with its low cost and high efficiency.US Startups like Amonix,Solaria have found some traction bagging some big projects backed by financial investors.Concentrix Solar backed by European Specialist Wafer Producer Soitec has recently announced a partnership deal with US Energy Efficiency Leader Johnson Controls.With c-Si Technology fast reaching its Efficiency Limits,CPV is looked upon as the way forward for the Technology to progress.CPV Technology works by concentrating the energy of the sun through optics and has the potential to dramatically cut the costs as it uses much less materials.The Technology slowed down because of the polysilicon price crash but has found increasing attention in the past few days
October 22, 2010
Solar Frontier is a subsidiary of Showa Shell Sekiyu and is listed on the Japanese Stock Exchange.The Company has big plans for the Solar Energy Market planning to increase its capacity by more than 10 times in 2011 to around 1 Gw in total.All its 3 plants are located in Miyazaki in Japan and uses previous plasma plant of Hitachi.Solar Frontier claims 11.5% efficiency for its CIS modules which are expected to go upto 14% by 2014.The Company is spending around $1 Billion in Capex for building the 1 GW capacity implying roughly $1 capex/watt which is not exactly cheap though not very expensive either.Note Thin Film Competition is hotting up with Saint Gobain-Hyundai,TSMC,Miasole,Oerlikon Solar,Sharp,Nanosolar all making plans for huge capacity expansion in the next couple of years.Solar Frontier has signed some small deals for supplying 1-3 MW in Thailand,Japan and Australia Recently.However the cost structure of the company is not known till now just like Sharp.While Solar Frontier looks good on the capacity and partnerships front,it has still to prove itself on costs to really push the Chinese Solar Companies which are dominating the Solar Scene right now with their low cost polysilicon panel production.Note 60% of the Solar Panel Production in Q210 was estimated to be done by Chinese based manufacturers.
October 13, 2010
Note Solar Panels prices differ widely depending on the technology,power,brand and quality.Thin Film Panels in general cost lower than crystalline silicon panels.Higher Power Panels have a higher price as they generate more electricity.Good Brands also have a higher price tag while cheap imported Chinese panels cost less.Solar Panel prices have decreased by almost 50% in the last 2-3 years and now sell for around Rs 1800-2500 per panel internationally and should fall to around Rs 1000 in the next 3-4 years . However for small installations on house of 1-5 KiloWatts,panels sold by distributors is more expensive and can cost you almost 50% more.Also Solar Panels form only a part of the total Solar System Cost.The total cost of installation,equipment and wiring can cost upto Rs 30,000/Kilowatt.
October 12, 2010
GE is now looking to dethrone the No.1 Solar Energy Producer First Solar using its all round strengths.GE had invested in a Cadmium Tellurium Startup Prime Solar which is ramping up production.Note Cd-Te is the same technology which is used by First Solar.GE has said that it has managed to attain 15% efficiency on commercial glass.Don't know how much of it is true since First Solar only manages around 12% efficiency despite around 10 years of dedicated R&D.However if GE can even manage to get near to that level then it would surely give First Solar a run for its money.GE has also tied up with Japanese Solar Frontier to market its CIGs based modules.Note Solar Frontier or Showa Shell is building a massive 900 MW plant in Japan.This would make Frontier Solar one of the biggest Solar Players in the world.GE is offering an integrated solution comprising of modules,inverters,services and other BOS equipment to get a leg up on competition.
October 12, 2010
With most of the low hanging fruit of polysilicon costs already gone,the industry has to focus on efficiency to cut down on costs.Selective emitters,microinverters,DC-DC optimization and other technologies are already finding takers.A Number of microinverter companies like Tigo,Enphase Energy etc are tying up with global heavyweights like Suntech and Sunpower to increase their penetration and cut costs.National Semiconductor has also tied up with Suntech to integrate its products with Suntech Modules to improve efficiency and reliability.The Balance of Systems costs for Solar Panels and their Performance are not usually paid a lot of attention.But with every cent now making a big difference,these technology could make or break a company in this commoditizing industry.While the value addition and costs of these new products are still subject to market acceptance,its a major change for the industry.This is the next phase in the evolution of the solar energy industry as it looks to additional ways to cut costs and bring solar energy to grid parity.Look for M&A in this space as well since the industry is fragmented with a host of VC backed startups.
October 12, 2010
Saint Gobain like Semiconductor Giant TSMC is betting on Copper Indium Gallium Selenium (CIGs) Technology rather than the mainstream crystalline silicon technology.CIGs is getting the most significant investments these days compared to other thin film technology.Yesterday Ascent Solar (ASTI) got an IEC certification for its flexible modules which would enable it to target the mainstream rooftop market from niche applications earlier.Miasole has improved the efficiency and costs of it CIGs greatly while Nanosolar can't be counted out because of its strong backers.Solyndra however remains mostly in the shadows despite around $1 billion in private investment.Stion is another strong contender partnering with TSMC and also thinking of opening a plant in Taiwan on its own as well.Saint Gobain is already a big player in the solar market as it suppliers glass to a lot of solar companies for their modules.Getting into panel manufacturing will further allow it to get a foothold of this new potentially giant industry.Du Pont,Dow Chemicals,Corning all have considerable presence in the solar equipment market as well.
October 11, 2010
Abu Dhabi has got the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world with asset of over $600 Billion.The small emirate which is a part of the larger United Arab Emirates is one of the richest countries in the world due to its Oil Riches.The country had made ambitious Renewable Energy Plans setting up a Fund/Company dedicated to its Green Ambitions called Masdar.The Company has faced a number of reverses as it tried a number of things all at once in a new industry.Its "Jack of All Trades" Strategy has proven to be a failure as it lost/fired a number of top executives.Its Solar Plans have also come up a cropper as Thin Film Technology has faced a lot of reverses in recent times.The Company has tried to change tactics by concentrating now on Solar Thermal Technology partnering with Abengoa and Total in building a CSP plant near Abu Dhabi.With its Renewable Energy Arm facing a number of reverses,its plan for a futuristic,zero carbon Green Masdar City has also been scaled down.
September 22, 2010
TSMC Cost Targets Would be Incredulous coming from any other Company
TSMC has said that it would look to become amongst the top 5 suppliers in the world in the next 5 years and looks at a Cost per Watt of only 19c/watt in the next 3 years which would be further reduced to 14c/watt.This is much lower than the current costs for the Solar Leader First Solar which is at around 75c/watt.This target if achieved would make solar energy the cheapest form of energy and would definitely make TSMC No.1.Note First Solar is planning a cost target of 52c/watt in the next few years.TSMC is planning to start production in Q211 with 200 MW of production planned for 2012.
September 7, 2010
Applied Materials which was the 800 lb Gorilla in the a-Si Thin Film Equipment raking in Billions of Dollars in Orders from established Solar Leaders like Q-Cells and Suntech also found itself in trouble.With its SunFab Division leading Millions of Dollars and fast losing its economic viability,AMAT was forced to conduct Euthanisia.Its customers like SunFilm,Moser Baer,Suntech also have pretty much shut down their factories writing off large investments.However Oerlikon is not giving up like AMAT
August 31, 2010
Polysilicon used to be Big in the Supply Constrained Days of 2007 and 2008.This commodity which is generally producers for $30/kg used to be sold at $400/kg by Polysilicon Producers as the Exponential Demand Growth in the Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Industry pushed the prices to astronomical levels.With Polysilicon being the only constraining link in the Supply Chain,Downstream Solar Companies with access to Cheap Polysilicon Contracts used to be the Kings of the Industry.Polysilicon Producers like MEMC,Wacker etc. managed to sign many sweetheart deals on those days with 10-15% prepayments and other favorable conditions loaded in the favor of the upstream suppliers.
August 18, 2010
TSMC has made a smart entry into the Solar Energy space through investments into CIGs technology.Beside investing in a solar fab in Taiwan using Technology from […]
August 12, 2010
Honda's modules have an efficiency of 11.6% which seems lower than those claimed by the TSMC-Stion,Miasole and Q-Cells.These companies are claiming 13% efficiency though none of these companies have large scale commercial production as of now.Q-Cells and Miasole are at the head of the CIGs pack with companies like Nanosolar,Solyndra,Solar Frontier and TSMC-Stion closely following.CIGs technology is said to be the best thin film technology better than the Cd-Te technology used by First Solar and a-Si technology used by Sharp and the now bankrupt Applied Materials thin film division.
August 5, 2010
Thailand has proposed to generate 20% of its electricity from Renewable Energy by 2022 and has implemented an "adder" electricity tariff for Green Energy plants.This "adder" tariff is similar to the Feed in Tariff (FIT) schemes prevalent in other parts of the world which gives a higher electricity payment to Renewable Energy Power Generators.Under this policy Thailand is set to give the "adder" tariff for 500 MW of plants till 2020 after which the tariff might be reduced
August 3, 2010
a-Si technology has much lower efficiency in the range of 7-9% compared to the mainstream crystalline solar technology.a-Si cost advantages over the c-Si technology has also disappeared with falling polysilicon costs.This makes a-Si only feasible for utility sized plants as a-Si's larger area requirements makes unsuitable for residental and commercial segments.The IPP JV is a good move as it will provide captive demand for Sharp's a-Si modules.
July 29, 2010
SMC seems to have made a strategic call to focus on the thin film Cadmium Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGs) Technology instead of the mainstream crystalline silicon (c-Si) technology.Note CIGs technology is the most promising thin film technology with yields much higher than the other technologies like Cadmium Tellurium (CdTe) used by First Solar and amorphous Silicon (a-Si) which was used by AMAT's Subfab division.
July 21, 2010
Applied Materials has finally shut down its SunFab Thin Film division after continuous losses in the last couple of years.The Solar Thin Film Technology has seen […]
July 3, 2010
President Obama declared $1.85 Billion in Combined Loan Guarantees to Concentrated Solar Power Giant Abengoa and Cadmium Tellurium startup Abound Solar.These huge guarantees is nothing new […]
July 2, 2010
Sharp,the Japanese Zaibatsu known more for its Electronics Products is also the world’s No 1 Company in terms Solar Module Revenues.Sharp has been the solar world […]