Abhishek Shah
December 8, 2010
Punjab and Sind Bank is a National PSU (Public Sector Undertaking) which is coming with a Rs 480 crore IPO by selling 4 crore shares at around Rs 113-120.The Company is offering 18% of its equity in the offering which would give it a market capitalization of roughly Rs 2500 crore ($550 million) at the upper end of the price band.Note there are a large number of mid cap and large cap PSU banks listed on the Indian markets.Note most of the PSU banks have seen a very good bull run in the last year and a half significantly outperforming the rest of the market.However the last 3-4 months have been tough with a LIC Housing Finance Scandal implicating top PSU Bank Officials for taking Bribes for Loans.The rise in deposit rates and tight liquidity has also hurt the sentiment for PSU Bank stocks.However,Banking remains one of the best ways to play the Indian growth story as financial inclusion remains very low.PSU Banks in general trade at low valuations compared to the private bank peers and mid cap PSU banks at lower multiples than larger ones like SBI,Bank of Baroda and PNB.
Summary
Punjab and Sind Bank seems a no brainer due to its significant discount on its fair valuation.At 5x P/E and around 1.2x P/B ,Punjab and Sind Bank is being sold at a substantial discount to the rest of PSU banks which are lower quality in terms of growth and margins.There are some mitigating factors like the low NIM ratio however the valuation more than covers for that up.The only problem in case of the Punjab and Sind Bank IPO is going to be oversubscription.Like MOIL IPO which saw 55-60 times oversubscription,same thing could happen here also.
December 8, 2010
Now the Investigative Bureau (IB) has said that another stock market operator Rathod was colluding with promoters of agricultural companies like Ruchi Soya,Karuturi Global and KS Oils to rig stock prices.This was being done through various front companies and maverick investor C Shivasankaran was behind these moves.Note these companies have become the darling of brokerages and media being touted as the next big thing with vertical integration and acquisitions of agricultural land in Africa.The media hype that these companies got also makes one suspect that some of these firms were also involved in this scam.The Modus Operandi was again the same as followed by Dangi and Ashika group firms earlier.It remains to be seen if prosecution results in any jail time for any of these offenders.Generally nothing happens in corruption scandals in India as a SC Judge recently note that corruption had become a way of life.
December 8, 2010
The Tata Group in India is known for its high standards of corporate governance and ethics.In an environment where Big Business openly colludes with politicians/bureaucrats to blatantly loot and plunder,the Tata Group has stood out for its success and reputation of honesty.While Stock Market Scandals and other Scams happen with great regularity,Tata have generally stayed away from the mess.The Group's Success in diverse sectors such as Metals (Tata Steel),Automobiles (Tata Motors) ,Software(TCS) have made it the most successful business conglomerate.Audacious acquisitions of overseas companies like Jaguar,Corus,Daewoo have announced the arrival of the Indian MNC.However the recent 2G telecom scam has tarnished this reputation of integrity as Nira Radia tapes reveal the chairman of the group Ratan Tata of hobnobbing with a shady lobbyist.Ratan Tata has gone to court over breach of privacy but has not explained why his group companies has appointed an obviously corrupt lobbyist.His Telecom Companies Tata Teleservices and Tata DocoMo were obvious beneficiaries of the adhoc regulation and policy in the last 10 years.A letter from Rajeev Chandrasekharan has in a succinct and factual manner raised questions about the silence of the Tata Group over the last 10 years as the Telecom Shenanigans were being played out.
December 7, 2010
India has been plagued with numerous corruption scandals being exposed in the last few months.While a number of such scandal like the Adarsh Land Scam,Commonwealth Scams,Stock Market Scam,Stock Market Scam,Housing Finance Scam have been written about in this blog,the spate refuses to stop.With India's Chief Vigilance Officer calling 30% of Indians as utterly corrupt and even the Supreme Corrupt calling corruption in India "mind boggling",it is not a surprise.2G Telecom Scam Prime Suspect Telecom Minister Raja has come into the spotlight again for threatening a High Court Judge in a CBI case related to an eduction scam.The background relates to a High Court Judge of Tamil Nada accusing a Union Minister of influencing a decision of the court.This created a huge ruckus as the said Judge refused to name the Minister.India's Judiciary is one of the more powerful institutions in the country and considered much more trustworthy than the other 2 arms executive and the legislature.The Agriculture Minister brazenly supports favored Business Interest while another Minister was sent packing off after unethically supporting a cricket franchise
December 7, 2010
Russia huge huge wind and solar energy resources with gigawatts of potential.It also has great geothermal energy resources as well however most of them are not developed at all.There is no significant support for Renewable Energy Resource as well with Green Energy capacity in low double digits (15 MW of Wind in 2006).With Putin calling Wind Turbine hazardous to birds and causing Environmental Problems,It looks like Russian Leadership will not change its Fossil Fuel Centric Policy any time soon.While Middle East Countries are dead against Climate Change efforts,they are developing Nuclear Energy and some Renewable Energy for exporting more Energy.However Russia does not even want to do that despite being a leader in Nuclear Energy.
December 7, 2010
Ragpicking is a developing and poor country concept alien to developed countries of the West busy bickering over responsibility over carbon emissions.Millions of people in India […]
December 7, 2010
A2Z Maintenance and Engineering Services is a Private Equity Promoted Facilities Management,Waste Management and EPC Company which is getting into the business of biomass energy.Company has fixed a price band at Rs 400-410 comprising of fresh issue of Rs 675 crore (~$150million) by the company and an offer for sale of upto 4.5 million shares by the selling shareholders.Note Renewable Energy in India has a bright future with around 5 GW of Renewable Energy Capacity to be installed per year over the next decade.However Biomass Energy may not be the best area considering the considerable expense and uncertainty in acquisition of feedstock.The Company already operates in 3 distinct sectors namely
Summary
A2Z is very similar in nature and valuation to VA Tech Wabag which did a successful IPO recently.The margin profile,growth and management is very similar.As such A2Z is a decent company however its not a compelling buy given the valuation.Note Biomass Energy is a tough sector to operate in and Orient Green Power has done badly since its IPO without having done anything badly as such.A2Z given the overall qualitative and quantitative factors seems a good stock at fair valuation.This makes the company a decent one to buy.
December 7, 2010
Midfield Industries which is a small low quality company did an IPO around 3 months ago at a very expensive price that did not justify the […]
December 6, 2010
Gujarat has been the biggest promoter of Solar Energy in India amongst all the other states.The State has already implemented a clear and forward looking Renewable Energy Policy with emphasis on Solar Energy.It has signed PPAs with a number of solar project developers under its State Solar Subsidy Scheme.While other states are looking mainly towards the federal subsidy scheme JNNSM to push Solar Energy Generation,Gujarat is looking to push Solar Energy on its own.Gujarat now has reportedly acquired 3000 acres at Charnaka village in Patan District which it will give to solar project developers to install solar panels.
December 6, 2010
Here Honda which is a Joint Venture between Japanese Automajor Honda and the Hero Group of India is restructuring such that Honda will exit the JV.Note Hero Honda has been immensely successful over the last 2 years riding a vehicle boom in India.While other autos stocks like Mahindra,Tata Motors have risen a lot,Hero Honda has been the star with its leading marketshare in the motorcycle market of India.The terms of the deal in which Honda will sell its 26% stake in the company to the Hero Group is very damaging to minority investors in the JV.According to the deal proposed by the Hero Group and accepted in principle by Honda,the Hero Group will get the 26% at a sharp discount from its market price and in return Honda will get much higher royalties for the next 3 years.This is an open and blatant looting of the minority investors.Note the beneficiaries of this deal will be the promoters at the expense of minority investors since they will have to bear the burden of much higher royalties in the future.
November 30, 2010
Nuclear Energy in India is going to quadruple in the next decade as India's power hungry economy requires increasing amounts of energy to sustain its growth.India's Electricity Capacity is targeted to reach 450 GW from around 160 GW at present which would require increasing the supply from all renewable energy sources as well as non-renewable sources.While Thermal Power will continue to remain the top dog with 60-70% of the capacity,Nuclear Power which forms just 3% of the current capacity is also poised to grow exponentially.India's Nuclear Power deal with USA have paved the way for India to again part of the civilian nuclear club which would allow import of uranium fuel and nuclear technology.It would also allow Nuclear Equipment Producers like Toshiba,Areva and GE to set up Nuclear Power Plants in India.Note India has a long history of a home grown indigenous nuclear power program with nuclear power capacity of around 4.5 GW.Despite facing low utilization in recent times due to inadequate supply of uranium fuel,the nuclear energy industry has continued its growth path.India is the only country spending large amounts in Thorium Fuel R&D as the country has huge deposits of the element.
November 29, 2010
Organized Real Estate Industry in India is only a couple of decades old .Real Estate Industry in India took off with the global boom in the Realty Sector which percolated down to India as well.Lack of clear land titles and litigation has made this industry one of the most opaque and corrupt ones.Due to the massive price appreciation and huge valuations,Land Scams have become quite common with Chief Ministers,Generals,Top Bureaucrats all involved in the murky environment of Real Estate in India.The most recent scam related to bribing of top public banks officials in the LIC Housing Finance Scandal has again put question mark on the fundamentals of the industry.Valuing the industry and making a real estate investment remains one of the most difficult investing tasks in the Indian Stock Market.Even Fund Managers are staying away from the Sector due to lack of trust in the Financial Statement given by the industry.That said modern India presents a booming picture of tall buildings and huge office areas & shopping malls. A list of the chief players in Indian market is given below:
November 26, 2010
India has set up ambitious targets of meeting 15% of its Energy Needs from Renewable Sources up from around 5.5-6% in 2010.WIth India's Electricity Capacity expected to rise to 450 GW from around 165 GW,this would imply that around 67.5 GW of Electricity Capacity would be needed up from around 16 GW.This would mean around 5 GW of Capacity addition every year in the next decade which is a very tall order.20 GW could be met by Solar Energy according to the Jawaharlal Nehru Solar Mission (JNNSM).Most of the rest would have to met by Wind Energy.Biomass Energy has high costs and reliability problems which mini hydro potential is only 1 GW.Note this is just the capacity I am talking about,for meeting the electricity generation,capacity additions would have to be greater as Solar Energy and Wind Energy have only 20-30% Load Factor compared to 60-80% for Fossil Fuel Energy Sources.Nuclear Energy can contribute another 20 GW.
Renewable Energy in India is growing at a rapid pace increasing its share of the total capacity from 2% in 2003 to around 10% in 2010.However the share of electricity generation is still quite low at 3% due to the lower capacity load factors of Green Energy Sources compared to Fossil Fuel Sources.The Total Installed Capacity of Renewable Energy in India is around 16 GW with Wind Energy taking the Lion's share at almost 70% followed by Small Hydro at 15% and Biomass Energy at 12%.Solar Energy in India till now has a capacity of just 6 MW which is estimated to grow to 22 GW by 2022 making Solar Energy one of the Biggest Growth Opportunities in the Field of Indian Energy.
November 25, 2010
Wind Energy Companies are increasingly facing competition from a host of new entrants into the industry.The dominants firms Vestas,Gamesa and Suzlon have seen their stock prices fall steeply due to declining revenues and margins.A number of Giant Industrial Firms have entered the Wind Energy Industry to diversify from the slow growth in their own sectors.Korean Shipbuilders have invested heavily in the Wind Turbine Manufacturing en masse to take advantage of the secular growth of Wind Energy.Chinese companies have risen from virtually nothing 5 years ago to become Top 5 Global Wind Energy Players.Companies like Sinovel,Goldwind,Mingyang Power are now trying to spread their wings outside of China.India's Wind Energy Industry is comparatively small but it has also seen a number of wind power companies setting up facilities with technology licensed from the West.The slowdown in the Western Markets has led to huge problems for dominant Western firms like Gamesa and Vestas.It has led to painful restructuring for Vestas which has fired thousands of workers from its domestic manufacturing base in Denmark.Gamesa has also seen management and ownership turmoil as WTG Orders have evaporated and its competitive position has eroded.GE,Suzlon,Gamesa and Vestas are all investing in the Chinese market which has grown exponentially in recent times and which is expected to form 50% of the Wind Energy Demand till the next few years.
November 23, 2010
The growth in Pharmaceutical companies has been tremendous in India. It is the second largest growing sector in country dominating the $8 billion domestic pharma market which is growing at around 15-16% pa. The Indian pharmaceutical industry is the third largest in the world.Mergers and acquisitions have become an increasingly important feature of this industry with foreing pharma giants like Merck,Pfizer,Daiichi looking to buy these fast growing small Indian companies.The recent buyouts of Piramal by Abbott and Ranbaxy by Daiichi reflects the desire of Pharma MNCs to inorganically grow their generics strength.This has raised some concerns amongst the Indian government about the independence of the Pharma Industry.However pharma companies are proliferating taking advantage of India's low cost technical workforce to grow at breakneck speed.. A broad overview of the pharma companies based on the revenue generated in 2007 & market cap is given below:
November 16, 2010
India has a huge potential in Solar Energy Generation which is being strongly supported by the Federal Government under the JNNSM Scheme and by individual States […]
November 15, 2010
First Solar,the US based Cadmium Tellurium (Cd-Te) is the lowest cost panel producer in the world today if you don't include any penalty for low efficiency.Even if you penalize the Cd-Te Technology for its lower efficiency vis-a-vis the higher efficiency crystalline technology,First Solar is clearly the leader with a core cost of 74c/watt.The company has a roadmap of reducing the cost to 52c/watt by 2014 and given its track record it seems quite achievable.In Cd-Te,some new competitors have claimed even lower costs than First Solar but they have yet to prove it in large scale production.General Electric,Abound Solar are some of the other Cd-Te players which are planning commercial production in a year or two.But with around 2 GW of capacity,they will have a lot of catching up to do.
October 24, 2010
Solar Power in India is growing at a rapid clip with the strong government support through the ambitious Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM).Rapidly Falling Costs,Massive Power Deficits,Huge Growing Energy Demand and Peak Oil all make Solar Energy in India one of the biggest energy opportunities in the 21st Century.People are slowly recognizing this large Green Money Making Opportunity with companies like Suntech,Siemens and Trina Solar entering into partnership with local players.Suntech has tied up with independent power producer IPP while Siemens has tied up for solar thermal energy with the Adani Conglomerate.This is just the initial trickle with large foreign companies waiting to flood the Indian market.There have been some initial hiccups in Debt Financing of Solar Energy in India but I expect the long term secular growth story to be unaffected. Solar Power Companies in India can be divided into various categories based on solar equipment manufacturing,independent power producer,renewable arms of large power companies etc.I have already covered the Top 10 Solar Module Production Companies in my Solar Panels in India article.Here is the list once again.
October 18, 2010
Wind Energy in India is the biggest Green Industry currently with around 1 GW of Wind Power Capacity being installed in a year on average.The Growth in Wind Industry has been driven by states like Tamil Nadu who have heavily subsidized and promted Wind Energy.India at around 10 GW of Wind Capacity is the world's 5th largest Wind Energy Producer.However India remains far behind China in terms of Wind Energy Growth .Last Year China installed nearly 13 GW of Wind Energy which is more than India's total installed capacity of Wind Energy.With a target of around 230 GW by 2020,China is on track to install 20 GW of WInd Capacity a Year in the next 10 years which would make India a Pygmy.Also two of the largest Wind Turbine Producers Sinovel and Goldwind are from China.India despite producing a world class company Suzlon in the early states of Wind Industry Development is struggling.Suzlon has fallen on very hard times running big losses while other Wind Companies are of hardly any decent size.
October 14, 2010
Solar Panels despite being mostly a commodity comes in a wide variety of types,technology,prices,size and colors.You can read an introduction about the lowest cost panels here.With there being no global index of Solar Panel Prices and with Prices of Solar Panels forming very quickly,its a difficult problem in acquiring the cheapest solar panels.The problem is compounded for solar panel buyers because these panels are typically sold by wholesalers and distributors who charge fat margins without providing any additional value.Also due to the lack of knowledge about the quality and the properties of solar panels,buyers generally get fleeced.Also panels are seldom sold separately as it is generally part of the overall package of the complete installation of panels,inverters,wiring,connection and integration.Here is a quick overview of which are the companies which make the lowest cost solar panels on the planet at a good quality and the most recent prices which they are selling at.Notice that the European and Japanese solar panels are of much higher price despite there being very little to differentiate themselves from Asian solar panels.
October 13, 2010
Note Solar Panels prices differ widely depending on the technology,power,brand and quality.Thin Film Panels in general cost lower than crystalline silicon panels.Higher Power Panels have a higher price as they generate more electricity.Good Brands also have a higher price tag while cheap imported Chinese panels cost less.Solar Panel prices have decreased by almost 50% in the last 2-3 years and now sell for around Rs 1800-2500 per panel internationally and should fall to around Rs 1000 in the next 3-4 years . However for small installations on house of 1-5 KiloWatts,panels sold by distributors is more expensive and can cost you almost 50% more.Also Solar Panels form only a part of the total Solar System Cost.The total cost of installation,equipment and wiring can cost upto Rs 30,000/Kilowatt.
May 5, 2010
What is Green Investing? Green Investing has become quite prominent these days because of the concerns with climate change,energy security,peak oil and the deleterious effect of […]