Debt
February 25, 2012
The Indian Solar Power Industry is starting to see some Solar M&A activity pick up as the sector starts maturing. The Indian Solar Energy Industry starting picking up pace in 2009 with the advent of the first phase of the solar federal subsidy which envisaged putting up 20 GW by 2022 (a figure which I think is too low btw) . A large number of companies entered the fray many of which were small . These companies hoped to profit from selling the licenses rather than being serious players. Many of these companies could not do so as the reverse auction process was quite competitive. A large number of companies also got started to take advantage of individual state subsidies from governments in Gujarat.
February 24, 2012
Solarworld which is the biggest solar panel company from Germany lost marketshare to the Chinese companiees in 2011 . The company which has been at the forefront of leading anti-dumping charges against import of Chinese made solar modules into the USA, lost substantial amounts of money. Solarworld had earlier closed its panel making facility in California. The company sold lesser number of solar panels in 2011 compared to 2010 despite the global solar market increasing by 30-40% . With only around 800 MW of shipments , Solarworld has only 3-4% of the global marketshare compared to 10% for bigger Chinese rivals.
February 23, 2012
China which is the world's largest provider of solar panels made from crystalline silicon is seeing a large number of smaller polysilicon companies go bankrupt or stop production. The reason is that for many of the smaller companies the price of polysilicon is $25-30/kg while the costs are $40-50/kg .This means that the smaller companies are making massive losses with the production of each kg of polysilicon. Note Polysilicon is a commodity industry like the memory industry and goes through periodic ups and downs when prices can go much below costs. In recent years a large number of companies set up polysilicon plants to benefit from the massive growth in the solar panel demand in Europe. However a massive glut in 2011 led the prices to fall across the supply chain of silicon solar panels. Poly prices fell from a high of $100/kg to $25/kg a drop of almost 75% in one year. This has made many of the smaller poly plants in China stop production as the price is below variable costs. The bigger producers like GCL , Renesola and Daqo have lower costs at around $25-30/kg which means they are breaking even . However for smaller companies the situation is dire as massive capacity expansion by the top polysilicon producers will continue in 2012 keeping prices at around the same level.
February 16, 2012
Wind Energy is the largest renewable energy source in the globe right now (if you don't count in hydro and nuclear energy). The total installed wind energy capacity exceeds the solar and biomass capacity by quite a margin at over 200 GW . The recent surge in wind energy installations has been from China which put up almost 40-50% of the global wind turbine installations in 2010 and 2011. Now China has surpassed every other country to become the largest wind energy country in the world with over 60 GW. While Europe earlier led by Spain, Denamark and Germany used to lead in wind capacity, they have been comprehensively overtaken by the Middle Kingdom in the last couple of years. USA comes in next but still far below its potential while the rest of the world has started to pick up now. India is the 5th largest country and has been steadily putting up around 2-3 GW of wind capacity each year.
February 16, 2012
While US Solar Installers are making Hay while the Chinese Solar Panel Companies flood the world with super cheap solar modules,Western solar manufacturers are being killed at an astounding rate.The second biggest thin film solar panel company in the US United Solar Ovonic has gone belly up.The company was fighting a losing batter as the more efficient crystalline solar panel prices went below its production cost.The company had tried to fight in a the niche of BIPV solar panel market but could not survice. After First Solar,Energy Conversion Devices seemed the mostly likely viable company in Thin Film Technology.After a few quarters of profits in 2008,the company went into the red as its flexible a-Si modules failed to cut costs as fast as others.It has been shutting factories in the US and shifting to low cost locations.
February 13, 2012
However it has now thankfully put its plan on hold of spending another 520 million euros on solar energy. The company has already wrote down $1 billion in solar after the valuations of Ersol and Aleo have crashed from the time it bought it. Note most Western solar companies are going bankrupt as they can't compete with the 80c/watt solar panel prices. Stalwarts Q-Cells are defaulting on the debt payments while according to Total CEO, Sunpower would have been bankrupt if they had not bought it. Even the biggest US Solar Panel Company First Solar has been ravaged by the price war. Bosch has bravely said that it would continue to remain in the solar panel market while it makes more sense for them now to make an exit and concentrate on their core competencies. It can realistically never hope to get into the top 20 solar panel suppliers and stop spending good money after the bad.
February 10, 2012
However Solar Thermal Technology is finding a niche in Hybrid Fossil Fuel Power Plants . The reason that Solar Thermal is gaining traction in Solar Hybrid Plants is
1) They can use the existing Electricity and Transmission Infrastructure of the new Fossil Fuel Plant or the Existing One
2) Solar Thermal Technology in most cases generate Steam which can be used by the Turbines of the Fossil Fuel Plant saving additional costs
February 9, 2012
US Coal Companies are being forced to close coal mines and reduce production because of a massive glut of cheap natural gas and emission standards . Note Coal Disadvantages are much more than that of other fossil fuels making it the dirtiest form of energy. While India and China face massive coal shortages , USA on the other hand faces a glut . Coal has been coming under increasing attact in the West with few new thermal plants being opened and many closed due to tougher pollution standards. Note Clean Coal Technolgies and CCS is being promoted to prolong the use of Coal but they are not getting much traction.
February 8, 2012
California which has the largest number of solar installations in the USA and is the capital of solar energy in North America is seeing a rapid exit of solar panel manufacturers. First it was Solarworld which closed a solar module manufacturing facility. Now Sanyo Solar Panels will stopped being made in the state as well as Panasonic consolidates manufacturing in Asia. Note cheap Chinese solar panels have made western manufacturers exit the solar industry and their have been a number of media grabbing bankruptcies as well. Western solar companies as well as Japanese solar panel makers have been shutting down in droves now .
February 6, 2012
China which is home to the biggest solar industry in the world and most of the top solar panel manufacturers has decided to lower subsidy in 2012. Note China did not pass a Feed in Tariff Law for a long time as prices of solar energy remained high. But after a massive crash in solar prices and energy in 2011 it passed a FIT law in late 2011 to take advantage. This resulted in a big jump resulting in China becoming one of the top 5 markets in 2011 . Now China is set to become one of the top 3 markets in 2012 if not the biggest . This is due to the fact that other European solar panel markets are rapidly reducing subsidies and China needs to support its solar companies many of which are effectively insolvent like LDK.
February 4, 2012
The Indian Mutual Fund and Asset Management Companies are facing tough times and foreign asset managers are exiting in droves. Fidelity has put up its $2 billion of funds on the auction block trying to find a buyer as it exists India. This is only after a couple of months when Blackstone another of the trillion dollar asset managers existed the Indian business. In 2008 during the boom times, every Tom Dick and Harry of the asset management business wanted to get a piece of the Indian pie. The local brokerages were commanding super high valuations while growth and profits seemed endless.
January 31, 2012
I receive a lot of inquiries regarding how to enter the solar industry . Note the Solar Business is one of the fastest growing industries in […]
January 31, 2012
Solar Power in India has taken off under the ambitious JNNSM government subsidy scheme with almost 400 MW of Solar Capacity installed in 2011 . With various states like Gujarat, Karnataka coming up with aggressive solar subsidy schemes on their own as well, solar power capacity in India should surge by around 1 GW in 2012. This has made India one of the fastest growing solar markets in the globe right now.
January 31, 2012
India's Real Estate Companies have seen a very tough 3-4 years with interest rates climbing, investors running away from shoddy accounting and the global macro scene being quite bad. One needs only to look at the stock price chart to see times have been very bad. Besides some of these companies have come under court scanner for their practises with Unitech CEO spending some months in jail for a telecom scam. However property prices have not come down as India's real estate bubble seems immune from crises in the West and in India . Prices have more or less remained stable while other assets have seen a major carnage at one point or the other.
January 30, 2012
Finding accurate Solar insolation data is a difficult problem faced in most countries except Europe and USA. The reason is that there is no history of solar radiation data in most countries as solar power is a relatively new technology. Most of the solar developers rely on data from NASA, DOE and European agencies which focus mostly on their domestic geography. This leads to faulty and inaccurate solar radiation data for other places which are seeing massive solar boom due to falling solar panel prices. India which installed 400 MW of solar power plants in 2011 and should see another 1000 MW in 2012 faces this problems also. There are no devices to record solar insolation in India with data coming from outside.
January 27, 2012
The Chinese Dominance of the Solar Industry in the last 2 years have seen numerous Western companies go bust . This has accelerated sharply in 2011 with companies like Evergreen Solar,Spectrawatt, Solar Millenium, Solon, Photowatt etc. either gone for good or in various stages of bankruptcy. Other US Solar Panel Manufacturers like First Solar, Sunpower have fired thousands and some are continuing with large losses. European Solar Companies are the worst off given their high cost structure and lack of differentiation. Solland Solar recently killed its solar module line while some like Schott have killed their solar wafer lines.
January 27, 2012
So what are the criterea for staying alive in 2012
a) Government Support in Some Form - Most of the Tier 1 Chinese Solar Companies will fall into this bracket. However given that there are so many you would have to look at the biggest like Suntech, LDK, Yingli for survival in any case. LDK is a BANKRUPT COMPANY ,the only reason it continue to produce a solar panel is because of the Chinese government support
b) Low Cost - Though seems like an obvious idea, there are still companies existing which have high costs like Q-Cells, REC. You just can't invest in them given that even low cost is a necessary though not sufficient condition to survive
c) Branding - Very necessary to get financing for solar projects as without a brand you are not bankable and will have to sell at a 10% discount in a market which is already selling at below cost
January 26, 2012
Quick quiz. What is common to Suzlon, Moser Baer, Indo Solar, Websol Energy systems and Orient Green Power? All these stocks had successful runs on the stock market and hyped as the next game changers in wind energy, semi conductors, solar power and hydel/geo thermal power. Valuations were more on growth stories than through an hard nosed DCF spreadsheet. But now, they trade at record lows(like other stocks but what is different is the pressing fundamental concerns in each case). Is this a bubble finally bursting, or are investors panicking?
January 19, 2012
Solar Jobs have been cut in the tens of thousands this year by a number of European Solar Companies including marquee names such as REC, Q-Cells, Solarworld ,SMA Solar besides many of the smaller names. Some of the solar companies like Solon have completely shut down. 5000 solar companies have downed shutters in 2011 according to German association BSW. This is despite global solar demand in 2011 increasing by around 30-40% compared to 2010. The reason is that massive overcapacity has been created in China and other parts of Asia. Backed by cheap loans and massive subsidies, around 50 GW of solar panel capacity has been created . This has led to a crashing of solar panel prices by 60% which has decimated the higher cost companies in Europe.
January 19, 2012
There is urgent need to reduce the solar capacity addition in Germany because
a) It is requiring almost half of the $21 billion renewable energy subsidies in 2011 while generating 3% of the total power
b) Too much solar power while put pressure on the power grid as at the peak afternoon hours solar can generate almost 10% of Germany's power requirement which means shutting down other sources
c) German Solar Panel producers have stopped benefiting from German domestic growth. Most solar companies in Germany have been decimated by Chinese competition and around 20000 solar jobs and 5000 companies have shut down.
January 18, 2012
First Solar the Big Daddy of Thin FIlm Solar Panels too is under pressure and if not for the DOE funded solar farms in California would have been facing a huge global marketshare loss. There are only a few thin film companies that can hope to compete . Those that can have big parents with massive balance sheets like Solar Frontier backed by Showa and Shell, Sharp ,TSMC and others . VC and PE backed startups have a snowball chance in hell of surviving because they need to get their costs to 50c/watt an impossibility even for First Solar leave alone poor startups.
January 16, 2012
Germany has seen the biggest increase in solar installations in the history of solar energy with 3 GW in the month of December 2011 alone. For perspective this is almost equal to the installed capacity of the Chinese solar energy which has almost 6-7 times as much electricity generating capacity . The returns are still high in 2012 with existing FIT , so the German government may have to plan additional cuts with plans of
a) cut of 2% FIT every month in 2012 to slow down the installations and bring down the solar system IRR
b) a cap on feed in tariffs to solar systems of 3 kilowatts only .This will prevent larger solar installations and building of large solar farms
January 14, 2012
The Indian Solar Power has been one bright spot in the gloomy infrastructure and engineering sectors in 2011. With share prices crashing with growing corruption, land acquisition and financing problems, Solar Energy has surged in India thanks to government support and subsidies . While a number of Green Technology companies have started up to capitalize on the growing renewable energy trend, the established constuction companies in India have not been far behind . While utilities like Tata Power, Adani, Reliance Power, NTPC have already built or are setting up power plants based on solar panels , L&T has become a major solar EPC players . L&T is now raising debt with a $100 million issue to fund its solar expansion plans .
January 12, 2012
The number of solar factories closing in Europe has increased tremendously in the 2nd half of 2012 despite a record surge in Germany which would have raised 2011 solar growth to 25%. However the relentless price pressure from Chinese solar panel companies has decimated the solar companies in the West. While there have been a number of famous cases of bankruptcy like Solyndra and Solon, there have been bigger solar factory closedowns. REC has closed down more than 1 GW of wafer capacity while a pure play Spanish solar wafer factory also closed down recently . British solar wafer maker PV Crystalox is also near the verge of failure. Solar Wafer prices have fallen by almost 60% in the last 1 year with the prices much below the cost of production in Europe. It seems unlikely that any solar wafer maker will remain alive in Europe by 2013.
January 11, 2012
China's solar market growth has hit the rocket phase in late 2011 with the announcement of the long awaited national Feed in Tariff . Many of the Chinese utilties have set up large solar farms utilizing the cheap solar panels produced by Chinese solar panel companies. Note Chinese solar companies are the dominant players in the world having almost killed the western solar industry in the last couple of years. With cheap costs and massive government support, China is almost ruling the solar industry globally . In the domestic Chinese market they have even a bigger advantage given the local home conditions and preference of domestic companies . Note China become home to the biggest wind turbine companies when China enacted the domestic content requirements in 2006. With the solar industry , the Chinese government does not need this law as its companies already possess massive advantages over the foreign competition.
January 11, 2012
Green Jobs in India is going to grow at a high double digit rate driven by the Real Estate and Construction Industry. The hiring will be done by Real Estate Companies in India looking for Energy Efficiency and Green Building professionals. Note the Green Industry globally has had a torrid 2011 with most of the major sectors like wind, solar, biofuels and lighting facing oversupply amidst slowing demand due to global macro problems. However the Green Industry has a great fturue driven by secular drivers like
January 10, 2012
The Indian Desert State of Rajasthan in the West which borders Pakistan is planning to set up four gigawatt scale solar parks in 4 districts of Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Bikaner and Barmer. Note under the first 2 phase of JNNSM , Rajasthan has got the lion's share of the solar farms being constructed. The reasons why Rajasthan has managed to corner 80% of the JNSSM solar projects is because
a) Solar Radiation is the highest in the country
b) Land is cheap and plentiful in the state with the government literally given them for free to solar developers. A huge plus in a country where land acquisition is a big industrial problem
c) Support from the government