Debt
January 10, 2012
The massive solar panel glut has not only caused Western solar companies to go bankrupt but has also caused mayhem in the Chinese solar panel industry.Many of the smaller companies have seen their utilization go down to 35% or lower with many of the others shutting down their production entirely.There are hundreds of small solar companies in China which started during the 2010 boom when global solar demand increased by more than 150% . However their small scale of operatoins and lack of brand power means that they are bearing the brunt. While the large Chinese solar panel producers have seen their utilization go down , most will survive given the support from Chinese Banks. For example LDK despite its more than $3 billion in debt and losses is still getting loans from Chinese Development Bank. But the smaller Chines OEM panel makers don't have the government sugar daddy behind them.
January 9, 2012
Solar Trade Wars are becoming the norm in the globe these days with the major one between USA and China.The instigator is the German solar company Solarworld which helped started the ITC Case in the USA.India too is thinking of putting some kind of import duty to protect its domestic solar panel producers which are dropping like flies.Chinese solar panel producers have swamped the world with super cheap solar modules.Though a part of their low prices can be explained by competitive advantage, another part is due to the labor,capital subsidy given by the Chinese government.It would not take a rocket scientist to say that some of the biggest Chinese solar companies are insolvent and would be dead within a month without Chinese state loans.
January 9, 2012
Solar Power in India is growing by leaps and bounds with the federal and state governments heavily promoting solar energy production.India is set to become a gigawatt market in 2012 with around 400 MW already installed by 2011.The ancillary industries around the main solar power market are set to grow at a rapid clip as well.One of the unlikely sectors in solar products in India is the growth of solar cables.Note solar power plants require a lot of wire and cabling to connect thousands of solar panels to each other and to solar inverters.Besides solar power plants also require interconnection with the power grid.While today most of the solar cable is imported from outside,there is potential for a solar cable manufacturer to build a domestic capacity as well given the rapid growth expected in solar power.
January 9, 2012
Coal Stealing and Pilferage by the Coal Mafia has always been done on a massive multi million dollar scale. In the coal rich states of Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and Chattisgarh, Stealing of Coal is a major illegal industry. Everyone knows about it and nothing is done as most officials and politicians get a cut of the illegal gains. Corruption in India is institutionalized as governing bodies remain weak and powerless. Despite India's much touted growth story,all these needling problems have contributed towards the Indian GDP slowing down sharply. Unless governance is improved,its tough to see how India can achieve its potential.
January 7, 2012
The German Solar Energy Market is biggest in the world and has installed the largest number of solar panels for the last few years.2012 promises to be no different with Germany again set to the biggest solar market for solar panel manufacturers though Italy would give good competition.The German Solar Subsidy program has been the best in the world unlike the start and stop feed in tariff programs of Spain,Czech,UK,Australia and other places.A stable step in cut of feed in tariffs has helped solar energy prices coming down by more than 50% in the last few years though demand has only increased.
January 6, 2012
The Indian Private Equity Industry was on a high for the past few years with a new PE fund being opened every few months by PE veterans.The global interest in the Indian economy had been very high given the growth potential.There was a lot of money waiting on the sidelines to take part in the Indian growth story.Most of the PE performance till then had been very good given a rising tide lifts all boats.However the recent year has not been that good.More than one PE manager has had to shutdown given the lack of funding while others have found it difficult to exit given the bad stock market conditions.
January 6, 2012
While the larger stock brokers have seen reduced profits,the smaller ones have had to shut down or sell.This trend has been exacerbated last year with the rise of computer controlled algorithmic trading.Most of these small brokers which used arbitraging strategy to generate profits have seen their main business evaporate.Retail investors in India have also avoided the stock market which has become a corruption landmine.With even top institutions like GMO,Goldman becoming victims of frauds,individual investors have no chance.Also market operators have made the Indian stock market a pump and dump heaven even as SEBI takes a long time to crack down on the abuses.
January 5, 2012
Chinese Wind Turbine Companies have unleashed a global price war in which Western producers are unable to compete.While Solar Panel producers in the West are dying like flies,Western WTG Makers too face survival questions.Vestas which is the world's biggest turbine company in terms of installations announced another revenue shortfall for the nth time in the last couple of years.The company has already restructed ,reduce workforce etc etc.However the price competition from the Asian companies is too severe and too sustained for Vestas to surive too long.Like First Solar,Vestas seems a likely candidate for takeover by one of the big industrial conglomerates.It has become too tough for a renewable energy company in the West to survive on their own.
January 5, 2012
Pakistan is a energy deficit country like most other South Asian countries with inadequate investment in the electricity sector and the distribution infrastructure.The cause of the energy crisis in the country is due to massive corruption and misgovernance , a theme which will be familiar to citizens of India as well.Pakistan has been looking at investments from the Chinese power companies in the hydro and wind sectors to boost electricity generation.However these investments take time and some may never come to fruition.However Pakistanis are now turning towards cheap Chinese solar panels to beat the high electricity tariffs and dependence on expensive diesel generators and UPS systems.
January 4, 2012
Adani Power,which is a leading Indian electricity company and part of the Adani Group is set to invest big money in the solar power in India.The company plans to set up 140 MW of energy capacity according to news reports with an investment of $600 million.Given the current costs of solar equipment and solar panels ,the price tag looks high at almost $3.5 million/MW when the current prices are more like $2 million/MW for large power plants in low cost locations like India.
January 4, 2012
JNNSM Phase 2 recieved almsot 8 times the bids with 2500 MW worth of bids out of which around 350 MW was selected for providing Feed in Tarifffs with the average tariff of Rs 8.77 or 17.5c/Kwh .Note India's execution record has not been great with only 400 MW solar capacity reached in 2011 against a target of more than 1000 MW.However weaker and unknown players have gone out of this business and the winners this time look more likely to construct these solar power plants.No doubt a massive glut of solar panels in the world with prices as low as 80-90c/watt helping .Compare that to prices of solar panels which were more than $2/watt last time.
January 4, 2012
Smaller Polysilicon producers with small sizes and higher costs are going bust almost everyday.With poly prices falling below $30/kg even bigger producers with inefficient plants like MEMC have been forced to curtain capacity.The smaller poly producers with 2000-3000 tons capacity have virtually no future.With poly expansion still taking place by big producers even in an oversupplied market the small fish are having the capitulate.
January 3, 2012
Chinese Solar Panel Producers have become a famous target of an anti dumping petition brought on by Solarworld and other companies.Though US Solar Installers have opposed the move as it will increase the solar panel prices in US,ITC has gone ahead with the investigation.Though the charges of subsidies and efficiency can be debated,the fact remains that US Solar Panel Producers can't compete with Chinese Solar Panles.Massive industrial overcapacity in China has made the prices of products very cheap and made it difficult for Western producers to compete in most areas such as Chemical,Renewable Energy,Textiles etc.The Chinese win because of their low interest rates,cheap labor,free land,massive government support.
January 3, 2012
Solar Power in India has been growing at a rapid clip due to a number of favorable factors
1) Big Energy Deficit
2) Lots of Sulight
3) Falling prices of Solar Panels
4) Favorable government subsidies.
Indian Solar Power Capacity in 2012
Many of the small firms have been weeded out and the developers and banks have got some experience in this new solar industry.Expect 2012 to be much better and expect at leas a doubling of the solar power capacity as both phase 1 and phase 2 winners in JNNSM complete projects.Rajasthan,Gujarat and Karnataka state subsidies should also see some projects being complted
Solar Power Capacity in India in 2012 should be around 1 GW which is not bad and will make it one of the top 10 Solar Markets in the world.
January 3, 2012
Securitization has emerged as New Funding Model for Capital Intensive Solar Energy Projects.In India Welspun Energy which is a solar developer with a solar plant in Gujarat has managed to securitize the project.Securitization in finance refers to pooling of various cash flows generated from different assets such as mortgages,recievables etc.Note Securitization has become a dirty word in finance as subprime property mortgages in the US were sold as AAA security products.However in case of Solar Energy they may prove to be a boon.Note financing of debt has become a big problem in building solar farms.Securitization can be an ideal way forward as it spreads the risks and allows the loans to be given to solar developers.
January 2, 2012
Note Chinese companies too would have shut down but the state owned Chinese banks are keeping them alive with loans at ridiculous interest rates.LDK which is buying Sunways is almost insolvent as well with its convertibles trading at less than 50c on the dollar in Singapore.It has more than n$3 billion in debt compared to its market cap of around $600 million.It faces massive losses in the coming qtrs and can't serve the interest payments much less expand.The strong support of the Chinese government for its green companies is keeping them alive.Chinese solar panels have become super cheap due to companies selling at below cost and massive scale.Note all the cheap solar panel brands in the world are Chinese with the exception of First Solar and some Asians.
LDK has managed to spend 22 million Euros despite burning hundred of millions of dollars in cash because it has got the Chinese government trillions backing it.So while Western companies burn and crash,the big crony Chinese companies can expand and acquire.
Most of the German solar manufacturing industry is finished and it is unlikely that except a couple of them like SM Solar or Wacker will live to see 2013.Q-Cells too should go bankrupt or get consolidated .Note despite European companies shifting factories to Asia ,they just can't compete.Some of the smaller module makers with 20 MW plants have seen huge losses with the equipment not selling for 10 cents on the dollar
December 7, 2011
Investing Money in India right now is a very confusing matter given the large number of choices and the lack of attractiveness of different assets due to different reasons.There are hundreds of voices seemingly intelligent but who are selling their own books.If you turn on the finance new channels they will keep saying buy stocks for the long term as if a normal investor can make money by buying stocks for the short term.Gold proponents will say that it has been a great investment over the last several years and with the US,European systemic shocks it will remain so.However the rapid uptrend in gold prices has made it a somewhat risky investment.Investing in Gold is also not easy given the wide array of choices like Gold ETFs,physical or futures.So lets see each asset class with its pros and cons
October 7, 2011
In the past ten years, cement consumption in India grew by approximately 7.5% per year. The building industry developed very dynamically, driven by the strong growth of population and the quick expansion of infrastructure. In 2005, India was after China the second largest cement consumer with around 135 million tonnes.
July 15, 2011
Phono Solar is a JV between Phono Technologies Switzerland and Sumec Group of China.Phono’s parent company SUMEC Group has been in the PV industry from early 2004. Sumec and Sinomach family of companies claim to have $15 billion in revenues each year.SUMEC Group Corporation (SUMEC), founded in 1978, is a key member of China National Machinery Industry Corporation (SINOMACH).SUMEC’s core business consists of shipbuilding and project contracting of complete equipment and engineering; the R&D, manufacturing and export of machinery and electric products including power tools, garden tools, power machinery
Phono Solar’s three production facilities will produce more than 500MW of PV Modules in 2011.The products are widely used in many fields such as power station, telecom, transportation, lightening, broadcasting, civil defense, marine etc.The company's products are made in China and marketed by the Swiss company under the Phono Solar Brand.The Company also sells micro wind turbines which are used in small residential installations.
July 10, 2011
Nuclear Power has come under assault in the aftermath of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident with Nuclear becoming a four letter word.However Nuclear Energy cannot be ignored because its nuclear energy uses are unique in some applications and cannot be substituted by any other means.Nuclear Energy is responsible for generating almost 1/6th of the global production of electricity with Developed Countries like Japan,Europe and USA having 20% or more of their electricity being generated by Nuclear Fission.Currently 31 countries in the world have nuclear reactors producing electricity.The total installed nuclear generating capacity in the world is around 375 GW (WNA) with another 170 GW in planning g state and another 170 GW being proposed.Despite the massive opposition that nuclear power has run into,nuclear companies and nuclear power stocks are not going away soon.This is because of the massive installed base and the nuclear plans of emerging countries.For example Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia,UAE are going ahead with their nuclear power plans as are countries like India and Vietnam.
July 10, 2011
Mutual Fund Companies have seen a steady growth driven by the growing financial assets being generated by the fast growing Indian economy.But the Mutual Fund Industry like other sectors such as Real Estate and Telecom too has come under the spotlight for some illegal activity.While you can't call the industry corrupt because of some fraudulent activities it does raise questions on the industry ethics.Top Mutual Funds in the country like HDFC and L&T have been fined by the stock market regulator SEBI for front running.For those who don't understand what the term means,front running is an illegal activity whereby a fund manager or fund official makes personal gains by making trades on his account before doing a trade for the fund.This causes losses for the fund investor and is akin to stealing.However like other corrupt practices in the stock market industry,SEBI lets them go with small fines which don't deter more such frauds.It is also not unknown that some fund managers connive with company promoters and market operators to rig and do circular trading.Not only is this a problem,another massive problem with the industry is its underperformance as compared to the benchmarks.While earlier mutual funds were known to outperform the benchmarks like the Nifty,a recent Crisil study has dispelled this myth.Given these disadvantages of mutual fund ,it is time to invest in Indian ETFs though not a lot of variety exists in the Indian stock market yet.
July 8, 2011
JA Solar is the biggest solar cell producer in the world with more than 2000 MW of silicon cell capacity.The company has one of the lowest costs in processing of solar cells from solar wafers.The company is primarily a supplier of solar cells to most solar panel producers in Europe and Asia.However the sharp fall in solar panel prices in 2011 has resulted in most of the European companies shutting shop which has meant that JA Solar has faced a large loss in customer orders for its solar cells.Unlike its peer Trina and Yingli Solar,JA Solar does not have a good brand name or distribution of solar panels.It is more of a upstream supplier of solar products to solar comapnies rather than a end distributor of solar panels.JA Solar has diversified into making solar panels of its own and in partnership with other companies.Having a strong presence in the end market has become essential to survive in the cutthroad solar market.
July 7, 2011
Solar Panels have recently become a point of trade friction between USA and China as a massive oversupply of solar panels has resulted in the prices of solar panels dropping by almost 50% in one year.This has caused great distress amongst solar panel manufacturers in the USA particularly the high cost ones which have been forced to close.Falling prices of solar panels are great news for customers but bad news for the producers of these solar panels.Now US and European companies are selling their solar panels advertising their "made in USA" credentials.This is to help them sell the solar panels which cost more but according to them have better quality and appeal to the patriotism of the Americans.Note the 2009 Economic Stimulus which promoted renewable energy had in fact "Buy American" provisions as well as the defense law passed in 2011.This means that a small part of the solar market is reserved for US Solar Panel Manufacturers who are being besieged by the low cost Chinese solar panel producers around the world.In fact Photovoltaic Module player Solarworld (which is German) is spearheading an effort to pass anti-dumping duties against the import of Chinese based panels.So which companies have "Made in USA" label.The surprising thing is that many of the solar companies are in fact foreign mostly European and Japanese though there are a native US companies as well.Note the most successful US Solar Companies First Solar and Sunpower (now Total) have always had the majority of their production outside the US in Asia.
July 7, 2011
Nuclear Energy has come under the spotlight after the Japanese nuclear plant disaster with people focusing on the strengths and weaknesses of nuclear power.One of the most important aspects of nuclear based power is that it is highly efficient.Nuclear Energy is currently the most efficient power source in terms of the fuel required,land area needed and also the waste it produces.The reason for this is that nuclear based electricity is primarily produced from nuclear reactions while other forms of energy like natural gas,coal and oil use chemical reactions.Other such as wind energy convert mechanical energy into useful energy.Nuclear Power currently is mostly produced through nuclear fission as nuclear fusion is still in infancy and its not certain that mankind will be able to use nuclear fusion in a safe manner to generate energy.
July 7, 2011
BYD is China’s biggest producer of Electric Vehicles and Lithium Ion batteries.The Company was made famous when Warren Buffet bought a 10% stake in the company,one of his biggest Foreign Investments.China has become the dominant leader in Solar Manufacturing from being an nobody in a short span of 5 years.Chinese producers are going to produce about 60% of the global supply this year led by companies like Solarfun,Trina Solar,Yingli Green and Suntech.BYD too has decided to throw its hat into the ring with a big bang investment.There remain little details about the $3.3 Billion Solar Investment over 5 years for which it has already gotten the financing.The company is planning to spend 22.5 Billion Yuan on Solar Energy over the next 5 years for which it has already secured financing.The company has started a 100 MW cell plant in the Shaanxi province and plans to expand to 5000 MW by 2015.BYD signed a $300 million polysilicon supply contract with LDK Solar (another Chinese solar producer).This is a huge supply contract considering the 2 year time frame.Though wafer and polysilicon prices have recently become slightly constrained recently,there is no scope for the massive shortages seen in 2008.
July 7, 2011
Mutual Funds are one of the most common ways to invest in equity and debt and a large mutual fund industry is involved in this endeavour.There are large number of high paying professions in Wall Street which depend on the mutual fund industry which include stock brokers and sales persons.However the amount of cost of mutual funds is not proportionate to the gains they give out.This is the reason that Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and passive funds which have lower expense ratios and expenses are gaining billions of dollars in money.The reason is that a large number of mutual funds regularly underperform the benchmarks.This has caused massive heartburn amongst investors who have to pay large amounts of fees for the services of the professional fund managers.This has been the trend historically and found amongst numerous countries as well.Besides the costs of the sales and distribution of these mutual fund with their hefty commissions also falls on the investor ultimately.However the prevailing custom of investing in mutual funds is not easily broken despite the underperformance of the mutual fund industry.Most of the advantages of mutual fund can now be found in ETFs which have much lower costs.They also remove the disadvantages such as the possibility of a bad mutual fund manager.
July 7, 2011
Solar Thermal Energy has been losing out in the last couple of years to solar photovoltaic energy which is seeing a huge increase in demand amidst very low prices.Some of the major solar thermal energy projects in the globe have been converted into solar pv installations due to its lower costs.Some of the major solar thermal energy companies like Solar Millennium have sold their solar thermal portfolios to other companies while Stirling Power Systems has gone bankrupt.Tessera has sold its solar thermal plants which had gotten DOE Loan Guarantees in California to Solar Developers who have made these solar thermal plants into solar panel ones.However there are some companies like eSolar and Brightsource Energy which are powering ahead with their technologies and projects with backing from big industrial MNC conglomerates like GE and Areva.Their Power Tower Technologies are supposedly more efficient than the mainstream parabolic toughs that are used.
July 7, 2011
Wave Energy is one of the niche renewable energy technologies which is still in its infancy stage.While other forms of alternative energy like solar,wind and biomass see hundreds of billions of dollars in investment each year,wave energy does not see even $1 billion in investment.This is because Wave Energy is still much behind in the technology curve in terms of costs and reliability.Also there are many varied approaches and technologies to harness the power of the ocean waves.However developed countries like UK are promoting this renewable energy since it has huge potential like solar and wind energy.Given the energy shortages that we are facing,we need to promote all forms of sustainable green energy and wave energy definitely has strong promise.Here we present the various pros and cons of wave energy
July 6, 2011
Polycrystalline silicon or Polysilicon( poly-Si or "poly") is a material consisting of multiple small silicon crystals.The difference between Silicon Metal and Polysilicon is that Poly is highly pure form of silicon and is much costlier.Polycrystalline silicon can be as much as 99.9999% pure (also known as 4N pure,the 4 denotes the number of 9s after the decimal point).Polysilicon was primarily used by the semi industry till 5-6 years ago and the electronic industry used 9N pure polysilicon.The Solar Industry which has become the main user of polysilicon nowadays can do with 6N pure poly.
Polysilicon is refined to single crystal polysilicon before it can be used by the semiconductor industry.However solar cells can be made even from multicrystalline polysilicon.Monocrystalline solar cells on the other hand are made of single crystal polysilicon and have higher efficiency than those made from multicrystalline polysilicon.Polycrystalline cells can be recognized by a visible grain, a “metal flake effect”. Semiconductor grade (also solar grade) polycrystalline silicon is converted to "single crystal" silicon – meaning that the randomly associated crystallites of silicon in "polycrystalline silicon" are converted to a large "single" crystal.