Indian Economy
Articles on the Indian economy
February 10, 2011
India's Infrastructure Sector which was considered the ideal play on India's fast growing GDP and its huge infrastructure requirements long commanded nosebleed valuations.While realty stocks which are closely related to the infra ones had long collapsed after the GFC in 2008 ,the infrastructure stocks had retained their preeminence in the stock market rally.However end 2010 and 2011 has seen a vicious change in their fortunes.Stocks like IVRCL,IRB,Punj Lloyd,L&T,Gammon etc have seen their stock prices nosedive.The stocks have corrected far more than the broader market which has itself fallen more than 15% in 2011. The problems related to the infrastructure stocks are varied and they have converged for investors to totally lose confidence in this sector something akin to the realty sector.The list of the problems are
February 10, 2011
India’s Stock Market has been amongst the worst performing market in the world in 2011 due to a number of converging issues.While Inflation and Interest Rate […]
February 7, 2011
India's Fast 8-9% GDP Growth has become the envy of the developed world groping with anemic growth rates of 1-2% and rising sovereign debt burdens.Asia led by India and China are the new engines of growth of the global economy.However a close examination of the growth shows the rising strains and inequality.Most of the growth in India has been a jobless one with capital intensive sectors leading the way.While some service sectors like the IT and BPO Industry have also grown at a rapid pace,it has only affected a minuscule portion of the Indian population.The rest continue to wallow in misery and poverty which is reflected in the growth of Naxalism.India's education infrastructure is quite woeful with majority of graduates unemployable.This has led to a growing army of unemployed half education youth fighting to get low end jobs.Unlike China,India's industry forms just 30% of India's GDP and majority are still employed in agriculture.Most of India's service industry too constitutes of low value add,low paying jobs.With growing communication and information,the few good low end jobs on offer leads to a desperate jostling.Public sector jobs in railways,paramilitary are especially lucrative offering job security and a decent social position.This has led to increasing clashes.
February 7, 2011
Indian Stocks Market are a very difficult place to invest despite claims to the contrary which will be made by institutional investors.The all pervasive corruption present amongst most of the company managements makes bottom up stock picking a tough call.Even institutional "smart" investors like Goldman,GMO frequently get tripped by fly by night operators.Market operators blatantly manipulate stocks while the primary market is a "pump and dump" heaven.However the Indian growth story has fooled fund managers from outside to keep investing into the story.I have written in the blog numerous pitfalls present in investing in India.Some of these are coming home to roost as the Indian stock markets have fallen by more than 10% in 2011 despite other markets making new highs.Here are the top 5 Headwinds facing the Indian markets in 2011.
February 7, 2011
These 3 Indian companies DB Realty,Sun TV,Spice Jet have very little to relate to each other.One is a real estate company,one is one of the fastest growing media companies while the third one is one of the biggest low cost airlines in which Wilbur Ross was an investor.The common thread running through these companies is their association with a regional political party in India at the center of a massive billion dollar telecom scam in India.The leader of this party Raja was recently sacked from his post as the telecom minister and has now earned the dubious distinction of becoming the first minister to get jail time from his own government.Corruption Scandals have ruled the roost in the last 6 months frequently leading to huge stock price drops.Small Cap,Mid cap scandals,insider trading,bribery rings have all been documented by this blog which led to huge losses for investors.
January 25, 2011
The Indian government has been rocked by a series of corruption scandals which have been documented in this blog.The scandals have not only touched the political sphere but also the stock markets.The scams have not stopped with new ones being reported almost on a daily basis but no convictions have happened.The corrupt and the guilty keep on going about their business as usual as the Indian ruling party thinks it can cure corruption with words.The Congress Party in its annual meeting had said that removing corruption would become its top priority with expeditious proceedings against public officials in graft cases.However the law has been criticized as having too many loopholes even before being passed.Even the actions of the government does not inspire much confidence.The Commonwealth Games which was a much publicized national corruption scandal has yet to see a single prosecution.The guilty officials have managed to all get bail with the Suresh Kalmadi the scandal in chief goes about his business as the powerful ruler of the Indian Olympic Committee.All the government has done is to remove him from the post of the Chairman of the Organizing Committee of the CG .Note this is already a dead body with the Games over a month ago.Note Kalmadi is a leading party member and despite his obvious corruption the government refuses to move against him.
December 21, 2010
India's Agriculture Sector account for only a miniscule percentage of GDP and growth,however most of India's population continues to depend on it.Despite rapid growth of the services and industries sector as globalization leads to assimilation of foreign technology and practises,agriculture continues to live in medieval times. India's Food Supply Chain leads to massive waster and inefficiency with 30% of India's vegetable and fruit produce being wasted.This is criminal in a country where most of the children go hungry.However corporatization has been repelled by vested interests leading to a the sorry situation.Food inflation has seen double digits since last year and despite a better harvest year,some food prices are touching the stratosphere.The inadequate supply chain leads to periodic shortages of key food items used by Indian as part of the daily diet.
December 14, 2010
India has been plagued with a large number of scams and scandals in recent days.Not that it has made much difference to the functioning of politicians and bureaucrats.India's Agriculture Minister was blatantly defending favored business interests while India's PM seems more interested in Big Business Privacy rather than tackling corruption.The Stock Market after falling for a couple of days due to increasing number of stock market scandals,has returned to normal.However the Indian politicians keep shocking the country with even more and more brazen acts of corruption and nepotism.
December 9, 2010
Indian Small Cap and Mid Cap Stocks got massacred today even as the rest of the global markets were up.There was no specific catalysts for the sharp sell off in the small cap space which was down more than 5% with a large number of stocks hitting circuit filters on their way down.FII and brokerage favorite mid cap stocks were the worst off declining by anywhere between 10-20%.Note India has seen a huge wave of scandals hitting the political and business spheres in the past couple of months.While Corruption is nothing new to India with India's Supreme Court calling "Corruption a Way of Life" ,the rising frequency has unnerved the investors.The Stock Market has also seen a number of scams hitting the news with well regarded stocks tanking by more than 50% in less than a week.Since its hard to explain all the scams that have been hitting India,I am listing out the blog posts explaining the scams here.
December 7, 2010
India has been plagued with numerous corruption scandals being exposed in the last few months.While a number of such scandal like the Adarsh Land Scam,Commonwealth Scams,Stock Market Scam,Stock Market Scam,Housing Finance Scam have been written about in this blog,the spate refuses to stop.With India's Chief Vigilance Officer calling 30% of Indians as utterly corrupt and even the Supreme Corrupt calling corruption in India "mind boggling",it is not a surprise.2G Telecom Scam Prime Suspect Telecom Minister Raja has come into the spotlight again for threatening a High Court Judge in a CBI case related to an eduction scam.The background relates to a High Court Judge of Tamil Nada accusing a Union Minister of influencing a decision of the court.This created a huge ruckus as the said Judge refused to name the Minister.India's Judiciary is one of the more powerful institutions in the country and considered much more trustworthy than the other 2 arms executive and the legislature.The Agriculture Minister brazenly supports favored Business Interest while another Minister was sent packing off after unethically supporting a cricket franchise
December 3, 2010
Karnataka,the southern state of India is known for fostering the growth of the IT industry in India.Bangalore which is the capital of the state is known around the world for being the Technology Capital of India.The state is home to India's biggest and most famous companies like Wipro,Infosys and numerous other IT MNCs.However the state which was known for its Technology prowess is fast becoming the Land Scam Capital.Karnataka has seen numerous land scams as the states politicians took advantage of the appreciating real estate price in Bangalore and surrounding areas.With the sharp increase in purchasing power amongst Bangalore's citizens,the real estate prices shot up in a crazy manner.Real Estate in India is the worst sector in India in terms of Corruption and Real Estate Companies are known to be totally sleazy and corrupt.In fact most of the recent scams in India has one or more Realty Companies as the main prognosticator.
December 3, 2010
Now the Agricultural Minister of India has come out brazenly batting for his favored corporate interests.It is openly known that Sharad Pawar is closely associated with the Lavasa City Project being built by HCC near Pune.The Company has criticized the Environment Minister for questioning the environment clearance.The Minister on the other hand wants to know why he was not consulted.Don't know how Agriculture expertise will help in deciding the environment clearance of a Realty Project.But in case of India's Business Elite anything goes it seems.Note the Agricultural Minister is said to be close business ally and played a prominent role in the recent cricketing scam as well.However as usual nothing came out of it as the politician-business unholy alliance brazenly runs the Indian government.
December 1, 2010
Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons Growth Alarms Global Powers;Fears of Islamic Terrorist Rogue Nuclear Bomb
Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons Program is known to be source of tension for world powers was already known.But the WikiLeaks revelations has shown that the situation is more alarming than it seems.USA is not the only big power concerned with the Nuclear Weapons falling into the hands of Islamic Terrorists.China,Russia and UK are equally concerned with the high risk that this nuclear program poses.Pakistan has recently been torn apart by internal Islamist and Taliban terrorism bringing the economy to a halt.Floods and Earthquakes have exacerbated the situation.The Pakistan Polity is equally as corrupt and self serving as most of the other South Asian ones.Note Pakistan became a nuclear power by testing nuclear weapons in 1997 following India's Nuclear Tests.
December 1, 2010
The low level of trust in the Indian government's investigative and vigilance agencies was revealed when India's Highest Court,the Supreme Court of India blasted the government for its choice of the Central Vigilance Commissioner.India has been rocked by a series of Housing Loan,Telecom and Land Scams recently implicating top politicians,bureaucrats and even army generals and admirals.However no one expects anyone significant to be prosecuted as the prosecutors themselves are compromised.It is openly known that the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) is totally controlled by the ruling party at the centre.The Income Tax and Enforcement Directorate also serves as puppets of the government being selectively used against opposition politicians and businessmen.
November 28, 2010
Nira Radia one of the top lobbyists in India has been exposed through wire taps done by Indian investigative agencies which has been leaked to the media.The conversations in the tape have revealed how this lobbyist has India's top politicians,bureaucrats,journalists at her beck and call.While it is known that corporate interest wield huge influence amongst Indian government officials,the tapes reveal that Big Business has the government almost completely in its pocket.The 2G Telecom Scam had earlier shown that how top ministers had connived with capricious business houses in swindling the Indian taxpayers of billions of dollars.LIC Housing Finance Scam which has been recently exposed has led to top government company officials being arrested for taking bribes in sanctioning loans to top realty and infrastructure companies.This had been done by a financial intermediary listed on the stock exchange and which had top investors like Goldman,GMO,Fidelity and Morgan Stanley.With the scam exposed these top investment banks have lost their shirt in this investment.
November 24, 2010
Now it has come to light that one of India's Leading Bureaucrats sold sensitive details related to Telecom Security to private firms in return for sex and money.Through an elaborate web of codes and multiple mobile phones,this IAS officer used to sell security information related to India's recent telecom security to leading telecom firms.Note India had recently taken stringent action against RIMM( Blackberry maker) and some others for failing to provide security codes.It was an opaque regulatory action ripe for bribes and corruption which was taken advantage by Ravi Inder Singh, the Director in the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA).Note it is openly known that nothing moves through the central ministry without bribing the corrupt officials manning those offices.Powerful Business Houses have most of these bureaucrats on their illegal payrolls as most policies are known much before by bigger corporates before they become policy.The expose done in the magazine "outlook" clearly demonstrates how India's powerful minsisterships and policy decisions are sold in closed rooms in the capital.Investors should be careful about investing in Indian companies as regulatory/corruption risk remains high as the SKS Microfinance and Unitech/Videocon stock falls show
November 17, 2010
India's Fast Growing Economy is seeing substantial churn in the Top 10 Rankings for Companies.Coal India which recently did a successful IPO straightaway went from being a Government Owned Private Company to the Top 5 in Market Capitalization Rankings.The Top 10 Rankings are dominated by State Owned Companies known as PSUs in India.Despite Privatization in the 1990s,Government Companies Lead the Rankings.Note the Top 10 Rankings don't have any Private Companies because of the lack of good information about their Financials.Note Most of the Largest Companies in India are related to Banding and Oil/Gas as is the case worldwide.India's Technology Companies like Infosys,TCS and others are still way behind in Revenues compared to the dominant Materials,Fossil Fuel,Industrial and Financial Sectors.However note that the diversity is much greater when you rank the companies by their market capitalization.TCS and Infosys are both amongst the top 5 recovering strongly in 2010 from their 2008 underperformance.You also see a Capital Goods and Telecom Representation in this Top 10 Rankings
November 16, 2010
Corruption in India has taken a widely virulent and blatant form with scams popping up almost everyday.Greed is Good has become the motto for India's Role Models in Sport and Military as well.India's Politicians are Leading the protagonists with Realty being the Main Theme.Note Real Estate companies in India are notorious for corruption with the sector being avoided by Fund Managers.India's Southern State of Karnataka is known for its IT Industry with capital Bangalore famous as a Knowledge Hub.However the Politicians of that State have made it the Corruption Capital with Bangalore equally famous for Land Grabbing and Real Estate Scams by Bureaucrats and Politicians.While Districts in the State have been made famous by Robber Mining Barons,the capital is famous for Realty Shenanigans.
November 16, 2010
India's Relations with its Neighbours in South Asia has mostly been strained despite sharing a common history and culture.While China and Pakistan remains India's topmost concerns with 4 wars being fought with these 2 countries in the last 65 years,the other smaller neighbours have not always been too friendly.However things seem to be improving with Bangladesh which is completely encircled by India on 3 sides.Bangladesh has viewed Big Brother India with suspicion despite India playing a crucial role in Bangladesh's Liberation from Pakistan during 1971.However the Bonhomie since 1971 was lost as subsequent military rulers and the BNP ruled coalition viewed India as an adversary.However the coming back to power of Shiekh Hasina led AWP has put India and Bangladesh on a new level.The reasons behind India-Bangladesh closeness are due to
November 4, 2010
India's Cricketing Icons are considered as role models by majority of the youth.India's cricketers like Sunil Gavaskar,Kapil Dev are revered in the country due to the huge popularity of the game.However India's recent cricketing league IPL has been found to another massive corruption scam.No jail terms as usual but a lot of political turmoil and media jumping around.India's top ministers have been indirectly implicated but nothing has happened as usual.Now it has been found that India's top former cricketers are also a part of this Greed Fest.Sunil Gavaskar,arguably India's best known batsman has got caught in a controversy.He has demeaned himself by asking for a huge payment that he was promised to be a member of the governing council of the corruption tainted IPL.Any upright person would have totally disassociated himself with the whole corruption game.By asking for a huge sum for his services,even this cricketing icon has fallen.India has very few role models left.
October 29, 2010
India's Political and Business Elite is known to break Indian Laws with Impunity as Corruption becomes more Blatant by the Day.India recently hosted the Commonwealth Games which was known more for its Corruption and Large Scale Looting than any Sporting Feats.The Politician Bureaucrat Nexus along with their Business Associates made a massive amount of money without any fear of the law.Despite some tax raids and some feeble investigation,it is known that no one would serve jails terms.At least not the fat cats at the top,maybe some minor official will do a year or two so that the government can be seen as doing something.India's top vigilance official recently said that 30% of Indians were utterly corrupt and the seems to be an understimate.
October 20, 2010
The Commonwealth Games (CWG) hosted in New Delhi,India recently gave rise to a monumental scam.It is an open secret that huge amounts of cash were siphoned off by officials,politicians and contractors involved in infrastructure building.The cheating and fraud committed on public money has been exposed already.Some of the officials have been fired without a single one being jailed or convicted.The CWG Committee was led by a leader of India's ruling party Suresh Kalmadi while the provincial government of Delhi is also ruled over the the Congress Party.The probes and investigation which were held in abeyance until the completion of the Games has started now.However like always expect a lot of media fanfare without any convictions or jailtime for the offenders.India's Ruling Party Members are already blaming each other openly for being corrupt without fear of retribution.India's Political and Business Elite has made the mockery of Indian Justice System a Child's Game.The Chief Opposition Party also can't come all guns blazing as one of its leader Sudhanshu Mittal has also been a kingpin in the Corruption Racket.
October 20, 2010
According to a report from Maplecroft,India and Bangladesh are the countries most at risk from the deleterious effects of Climate Change.The other countries in South Asia like Nepal,Myanmar,Pakistan are not far behind.Maldives the smallest country in South Asia is the heaviest in danger with its very existence at stake.Next in the list are African countries like Mozambique,Madagascar and others from Global Warming Changes like Droughts,Floods,Submersion etc.Note Climate Change has faced massive setbacks in recent time with the failure of the Copenhagen meet and not much chance of success with the next Cancun meet.USA and China the two biggest emitters of GHGs have been reluctant to move forward in the the Climate Change issue.Note the poorest countries are the most vulnerable to climate change and they have the least voice in climate change talks.Rich countries like Saudi Arabia have even blocked studies on climate change by poor island nations.
October 18, 2010
India is one of the largest consumers of Gold in the world with a strong cultural and religious affinity for this "barbaric relic".Giving of gold jewellery during marriage is sort of compulsory and is even bought as an investment.The high prices of gold has failed to dampen the enthusiasm for gold amongst India's increasingly wealthy classes.While Silver is also bought during some auspicious days such as "Dhanteras",Gold rules the roost as far as precious metals are concerned.Traditionally Gold has been bought from jewellers in the form of jewellery by Indians,however sophistication of the Indian Financial Industry has increased the gold buying options for Indian investors.Here is examining some of the pros and cons of different investment options .
Summary
The best way to buy gold in India is through Gold BeEs ETF for low expenses and liquidity.However if you want to buy physical gold then your trusted family jeweler may the best choice as Banks and Reputed Retailers of Gold charge an exorbitant 8-10% transaction cost one way on gold.Can't understand why the Banks have to fleece the customers in case of selling Gold.But knowing Indian Banks who love Regulation in fear of competition amongst each other it does not come as a big surprise.
October 18, 2010
India's Massively Growing Industry is clashing head-on with the Environment leading to huge fissures.There have been numerous clashes already with many of the mega industrial projects being cancelled or shifted.Tata Motor's Nano Project in Singur,West Bengal was probably the most famous project to be scrapped after a huge people's uprising due to loss of land and livelihood.Unlike China,where industry manages to always win over people's protests,it is not that easy in India's Democracy.Orissa recently saw Vedanta Resources Bauxite Mining Project cancelled over loss of tribal sacred land loss concerns.This was a huge victory for India's environmentalists as officials and companies were found breaking forest and environment laws.Now POSCO which has been trying to build a $12 Billion Steel Plant in the Mineral Rich State of Eastern India finds that Green Approvals given might be cancelled by a panel of government experts.Note the POSCO project was stopped recently pending an environmental assessment whose report will be published on Oct 25.Despite hectic lobbying by POSCO and the provincial Orissa government,the project looks set for more delays.Note the Steel Plant which was started in 2005 is already way behind schedule.
October 13, 2010
42% of World's Hungry Children Live in India
In contrast to the exponential growth of wealth of India's upper classes,the poor continue to eke out a miserable existence mired in hunger and constantly facing starvation.Globalization of Agriculture has further increased Food Price Inflation making their positive even more precarious.According to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI),India slipped 2 places to be ranked in the 67th place amongst 88 nations in the Hunger Index.Despite a stellar economic performance over the last 20 years or so and sharp rise in per capita GDP,India remains one of the poorest nations on earth.It ranks below even Nepal,Pakistan,Sudan with 48% of India's children stunted due to lack of food.The report is a strong indictment of growth policies which has made its children mostly hungry and stunted.Other strongly growing economies like Brazil and China have performed much better than India.Time for India's government to radically change the structure of India's economic growth.Despite promotion of policies like NREGA and midday meals for poor,rank corruption and leakage has led to India being the hungriest nation on earth.
October 11, 2010
A US expert has said that India was the target of the Stuxnet Attack rather than Iran.India's Insat 4B Communications Satellite suffered from a malfunction recently and it used the same Siemens software which was the target of this Worm Attack.India has been subject to Chinese cyberwarfare attacks in the past .This has led to a general wariness in the Indian Establishment over Chinese origin companies like Huawei operating in India.Tensions between Indian and China have been rising over a range of issues such as territory,supply of arms and nuclear reactors to Pakistan and construction of military bases around India.The failure of an Indian Communications Satellite without any explicit attack done surreptitiously by Chinese hackers does not seem far fetched.Nothing would be clearly known to the general public given the clandestine nature of these cyberwarfare between nation states.However India's decision to bolster its cyberwarfare capabilities and the recent decision by Google to abandon China,all point to China using cyberattacks as an instrument of statecraft.
October 5, 2010
Organized retail industry in India is largely an oligopsonic market. (An oligopsony is a market form in which the number of buyers is small while the number of sellers in theory could be large. It contrasts with an oligopoly, where there are many buyers but just a few sellers. An oligopsony is a form of imperfect competition. One example of an oligopsony in the world economy is cocoa, where three firms (Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland, and Callebaut) buy the vast majority of world cocoa bean production, mostly from small farmers in third-world countries.)
Shopping centres in India have well defined product categories. These including the multiplex, the food court, the hypermarkets, the departmental stores (loosely referred to as anchors) and then the vanilla stores. In each of the anchor product categories, there are virtually 4-5 established players that all the retailers have to go to. This gives rise to an oligopsonic market with the retailers having the relationship power balance tilted in their favour. Also, with shopping centres being capital intensive (with large amount of debts) and the retailers working on negative working capital, the cash flow pressures are that much more on the shopping centre owners than the retailers. It gives retailers much more time to play hardball in their negotiations with the shopping centre owners.
October 5, 2010
India suffers from a lack of variety as well as depth in ETFs compared to developed markets such as USA.Only Benchmark Asset Management Company (AMC) has seriously invested in the ETF space and its NiftyBeES ETF which follows India's Nifty Index is the most successful one so far.India's Infrastructure Sector has attracted a lot of investor interest given the stupendous $500 Billion Investment planned over the next 5 years.This will be 2.5x the investment in the past 5 years and will help India's crumbling ports,roads,railways,power and communications sectors to gear up to India's 8-9% GDP growth.Recently EGShares launched INXX which also markets itself as a play on India's Infrastructure Growth in the US Markets.However that ETF was found wanting in a lot of areas.The new InfraBeES ETF launched by Benchmark seems much better than INXX and has been launched in the Indian markets.This ETF is based on CNX Infrastructure Index and its 1 unit will be 1/10th of that Index.Here are some of the key features of this new ETF
September 18, 2010
In our Financial linked world where Capital is Globalized while Regulation is not,Hot Money Flows are fueling inflation and asset based bubbles in Developing Countries.Some of the Emerging Markets are either close to or have surpassed the 2008 all time highs.Inflation is also hitting dangerous levels in some countries like Argentina,India and others.The depreciating dollar brought upon the the US Federal Reserve Printing of money has made it necessary that the Central Banks purchase Dollars.This has been done not only by Brazil and Singapore but also by Japan.With more Dollar Printing,these Purchases will increase the Liquidity in the Developing Countries.This is a sure shot recipe for high inflation which will be difficult to control.India has already raised Interest Rates 5 times this year in order to rein in the pernicious effects of high inflation on its largely poor population.