Government
January 16, 2012
Germany has seen the biggest increase in solar installations in the history of solar energy with 3 GW in the month of December 2011 alone. For perspective this is almost equal to the installed capacity of the Chinese solar energy which has almost 6-7 times as much electricity generating capacity . The returns are still high in 2012 with existing FIT , so the German government may have to plan additional cuts with plans of
a) cut of 2% FIT every month in 2012 to slow down the installations and bring down the solar system IRR
b) a cap on feed in tariffs to solar systems of 3 kilowatts only .This will prevent larger solar installations and building of large solar farms
January 16, 2012
China add the most electricity capacity annually in the world at around 100 GW and its total electricity generation capacity is second only to the USA which it will surpass in the next few years. China is highly dependent on thermal power for its energy needs which is becoming scarce and expensive by the day. Not to speak of the big disadvantages of coal as a fuel which causes thousands of deaths each year. Solar Energy has now reached grid parity in many parts of the world thanks to the low cost cheap solar panels being made by Chinese solar panel producers. With many countries now thinking of putting an anti dumping duty on Chiense solar modules, the government is looking to boost domestic demand . Chinese solar panel Tier 1 players like LDK, Suntech, Trina and Yingli besides some others are the biggest beneficiaries of this new solar policy from China.
January 16, 2012
SMA Solar ,the biggest German Solar Energy company is now losing marketshare to the new solar inverter manufacturers in USA and China. Note SMA Solar held a dominating 40% solar inverter global marketshare in 2010 compared to the solar panel manufacturers none of which has managed more than a 10% marketshare . SMA Solar however is now feeling the heat of the competition as solar energy prices continue to go down steadily. The pressure on the solar inverter companies has been increasing as solar inverter prices as a percentage of the total solar system cost has risen from 5% to almost 10% now as solar panel prices have come down much more rapidly.
January 14, 2012
How Chinese Module Makers will use the Taiwanese Cell Producers to Circumvent US Anti-Dumping Policy
The USA and China are locked in a bitter tiff over solar panel imports from China. Note Solarworld filed a petition with the ITC which in all probability will put an anti-dumping duty on Chinese solar modules. Other countries whose solar panel producers have been swamped by the super cheap Solar Panel imports too are thinking of special custom duties. However the big Tier 1 Chinese solar panel makers are not sitting idle . They have already come out with strategies to circumvent the US Solar Panel Duties if they are imposed .
January 14, 2012
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group , is going to cut 900 jobs are the Australian real estate market slumps. Financial Jobs are facing a carnage with banks cutting down left , right and centre .ANZ which is one of the 4 largest banks in Australia joins its couterparts around the world in sharply cutting banker jobs as the global slowdown bits the financial industry. Note the outlook in the Financial Industry is that of a Depression even as the world economy faces some hiccups from the European Debt Crisis . Real Estate Markets have been distorted globally by bad regulation , low interest rates etc. While China is seeing the first signs of a troubled real estate market, USA has been feeling the effects since the last 3-4 years. Australia has also joined in with the popping of the real estate bubble. Alongwith construction and real estate companies , financial companies who make the real estate mortgages are the worst hit in general.
January 14, 2012
The Indian Solar Power has been one bright spot in the gloomy infrastructure and engineering sectors in 2011. With share prices crashing with growing corruption, land acquisition and financing problems, Solar Energy has surged in India thanks to government support and subsidies . While a number of Green Technology companies have started up to capitalize on the growing renewable energy trend, the established constuction companies in India have not been far behind . While utilities like Tata Power, Adani, Reliance Power, NTPC have already built or are setting up power plants based on solar panels , L&T has become a major solar EPC players . L&T is now raising debt with a $100 million issue to fund its solar expansion plans .
January 12, 2012
The Indian government is going to set targets for large power users so that their energy usage is capped. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) is going to supervise this program in which Energy Saving Certificates will be awarded . This certificates can be traded on the energy exchanges providing an incentive for large energy users to improve energy efficiency . Note Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) are already trading successfully on IEX since the last year . REC have promoted the usage of Renewable Energy by providing a market linked mechanism to find prices for green energy in India.
January 12, 2012
The Financial Industry will shed another 150,000 jobs according to Richard Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Securities LLC . Royal Bank of Scotland the bankrupt UK bank that was taken over the British government is going to kill a number of investment banking divisions and will fire 3500 people. RBS has already fired thousand before in wholesale and corporate banking . Now RBS will completely exit from a number of divisions like M&A, Cash Equities etc. which will mean thousands of firings . In an environment when financial jobs are scarce , this means that the fired thousands will have a tough time getting into the workforce again.RBS is going to fire 3500 people in addition to 2000 already announced. This would bring down the 24,000 pre crisis headcount by almost 45% .
January 12, 2012
The number of solar factories closing in Europe has increased tremendously in the 2nd half of 2012 despite a record surge in Germany which would have raised 2011 solar growth to 25%. However the relentless price pressure from Chinese solar panel companies has decimated the solar companies in the West. While there have been a number of famous cases of bankruptcy like Solyndra and Solon, there have been bigger solar factory closedowns. REC has closed down more than 1 GW of wafer capacity while a pure play Spanish solar wafer factory also closed down recently . British solar wafer maker PV Crystalox is also near the verge of failure. Solar Wafer prices have fallen by almost 60% in the last 1 year with the prices much below the cost of production in Europe. It seems unlikely that any solar wafer maker will remain alive in Europe by 2013.
January 11, 2012
China's solar market growth has hit the rocket phase in late 2011 with the announcement of the long awaited national Feed in Tariff . Many of the Chinese utilties have set up large solar farms utilizing the cheap solar panels produced by Chinese solar panel companies. Note Chinese solar companies are the dominant players in the world having almost killed the western solar industry in the last couple of years. With cheap costs and massive government support, China is almost ruling the solar industry globally . In the domestic Chinese market they have even a bigger advantage given the local home conditions and preference of domestic companies . Note China become home to the biggest wind turbine companies when China enacted the domestic content requirements in 2006. With the solar industry , the Chinese government does not need this law as its companies already possess massive advantages over the foreign competition.
January 11, 2012
Green Jobs in India is going to grow at a high double digit rate driven by the Real Estate and Construction Industry. The hiring will be done by Real Estate Companies in India looking for Energy Efficiency and Green Building professionals. Note the Green Industry globally has had a torrid 2011 with most of the major sectors like wind, solar, biofuels and lighting facing oversupply amidst slowing demand due to global macro problems. However the Green Industry has a great fturue driven by secular drivers like
January 11, 2012
The rising income inequality throughout the world is sowing seeds of dystopia according to a report released by World Economic Forum. The biggest risk amongst the 50 risks listed is the increasing wealth gap between individuals in all countries. Gini's coefficient has risen in most countries developing as well as developed and this has a strong correlation to globalization. The global artitrage of labor has tilted the scales towards capital and increasingly made wages become stagnant. Developing countries with weak institutions are showing income inequality in horrific forms with $2 billion homes existing in the middle of millions surviving on less than $2 day. US has already seen the OWS movement as a result of this increasing income gap between the have and have nots. Middle Eastern countries have also seen revolutions brought upon by the massive riches of the elite compared to the rising poverty of the poor and even the middle classes.
January 11, 2012
Green Industry in US continues to flourish despite the general apathy towards global warming from a significant section of the population and parties. USA is the hotbed of green innovation despite stiff challenge by China which is spending billions of dollars to become the No.1 in Green Industry and Technology. US has the lead in Fuel Cell Technology with a number of top companies like Fuel Cell Energy, Bloom Energy. Now a start up ClearEdge Power has got one of the biggest fuel cell orders in the world worth $85 million from Austria's Gussing Renewable Energy. The deal calls for supplying of 50 megawatts of power by the year 2020.
January 11, 2012
Train Accidents in India are starting to happen with surprising regularity with hardly a month passing by without a major collision or accident. Small accidents seem to be happening every day with news report of a collision not generating any mindshare these days. Road Accidents in India too happen with great regulatiry with some estimates of 1000 Road Deaths happening in India every day . This is due to government and people apathy towards safety regulation and following of laws and norms. It is just not resticted to trains but encompasses the entire system such as fire safety etc. Without a major change in the people attitude towards safety regulation expect such accident and waste of human life will continue to happen.
January 11, 2012
Europe which has been one of the greenest regions on earth in terms of promoting green energy and reducing carbon emissions is set to face a severe test. Europe is going to impose a Carbon Tax on Airlines flying into the region from 2012 . This has got the other major countries seeing red, with most of them planning retaliation. This Green Tax will add around $3 billion per year in terms of extra fees from airlines or around $6 per extra passenger. While airlines from USA and Canada approached the court, airlines from India and China are refusing to pay the tax outright. Indian airlines won't supply their carbon data while China won't pay the taxes . Note European Union is isolated in this fight against climate change . Though Carbon Trading is not a perfect system and open to abuses, at least it makes a pretense to fight global warming. On the other hand,these other countries have no plan or intention to fight climate change.
January 11, 2012
Europe has got the largest installed capacity of wind and solar energy due to the proactive policies enacted by the governments there.However the renewable energy industries have not been left unaffected by the European debt crisis. Offshore Wind Energy is a European development with most of the major offshore wind power farms located in Germany and UK. France which is tendering for 5 GW of offshore wind energy farms has seen reduced bank interest according to Areva. Offshore Wind Energy grew by more than 50% in 2010 and is expected to continue at above 50% growth rates over the next several years as the global installed offshore wind capacity multiples by more than 25 times over the next 10 years.
January 10, 2012
The Indian Desert State of Rajasthan in the West which borders Pakistan is planning to set up four gigawatt scale solar parks in 4 districts of Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Bikaner and Barmer. Note under the first 2 phase of JNNSM , Rajasthan has got the lion's share of the solar farms being constructed. The reasons why Rajasthan has managed to corner 80% of the JNSSM solar projects is because
a) Solar Radiation is the highest in the country
b) Land is cheap and plentiful in the state with the government literally given them for free to solar developers. A huge plus in a country where land acquisition is a big industrial problem
c) Support from the government
January 10, 2012
The massive solar panel glut has not only caused Western solar companies to go bankrupt but has also caused mayhem in the Chinese solar panel industry.Many of the smaller companies have seen their utilization go down to 35% or lower with many of the others shutting down their production entirely.There are hundreds of small solar companies in China which started during the 2010 boom when global solar demand increased by more than 150% . However their small scale of operatoins and lack of brand power means that they are bearing the brunt. While the large Chinese solar panel producers have seen their utilization go down , most will survive given the support from Chinese Banks. For example LDK despite its more than $3 billion in debt and losses is still getting loans from Chinese Development Bank. But the smaller Chines OEM panel makers don't have the government sugar daddy behind them.
January 10, 2012
Philips and Siemens ,2 of the largest European conglomerates with big Green divisions as well have warned of Dire Macroeconomic problems in Europe.While the stock markets continue to go higher, both companies have cut/ warned profit forecasts on European economic headwinds. Siemens is the largest green company in the world while Philips is one of the biggest Lighting Companies .
January 10, 2012
Mahdindra Solar One a JV between India's biggest conglomerates the Mahindra Group and a PE backed startup Kiran Energy is setting itself to become one of the biggest players in India's Solar Energy.Mahindra Group which has dominant Indian companies in the Automobile Industry,Information Technology has set up 3 subsidiares to operate in the following segments
January 9, 2012
Solar Trade Wars are becoming the norm in the globe these days with the major one between USA and China.The instigator is the German solar company Solarworld which helped started the ITC Case in the USA.India too is thinking of putting some kind of import duty to protect its domestic solar panel producers which are dropping like flies.Chinese solar panel producers have swamped the world with super cheap solar modules.Though a part of their low prices can be explained by competitive advantage, another part is due to the labor,capital subsidy given by the Chinese government.It would not take a rocket scientist to say that some of the biggest Chinese solar companies are insolvent and would be dead within a month without Chinese state loans.
January 9, 2012
Bank of America had already announced thousands of job cuts earlier.Today it cut 20% of its Asian MDs as it tries to cope with the sinking of investment banking revenues.Other investment banks like RBS,Nomura,BNP Paribas,Societe Generale are also cutting jobs with a vengeance.Goldman Sachs also announced big time salary cuts for its partners and fixed income trading.
January 9, 2012
Saving bankrupt solar companies has become the national pasttime of most governments it seems.Competition in the solar market has become so severe that solar comapnies are failing left and right.This has made the government come out to save them with bailouts which only make the oversupply situation in the solar panel industry worse.While China is the worst culprit supporting hundreds of failing solar companies through cheap loans which will be never paid back,other governments are not far behind.
January 9, 2012
Solar Renewable Energy Certificate (SREC) Prices in New Jersey have been falling at a sharp rate from a high of $600 to $225 as high returns from falling solar panel prices and other tax breaks.This has led to a massive growth in solar installations in the state making it the 2nd largest state by solar capacity.New Jersey installations have crossed 500 MW and made it a huge green job driver in the state.However this boom has made the market driven SREC prices fall quite sharply.Though not falling as sharply as Pennsylvania where SREC prices have become a joke ,they are still low and falling.
January 9, 2012
Solar Power in India is growing by leaps and bounds with the federal and state governments heavily promoting solar energy production.India is set to become a gigawatt market in 2012 with around 400 MW already installed by 2011.The ancillary industries around the main solar power market are set to grow at a rapid clip as well.One of the unlikely sectors in solar products in India is the growth of solar cables.Note solar power plants require a lot of wire and cabling to connect thousands of solar panels to each other and to solar inverters.Besides solar power plants also require interconnection with the power grid.While today most of the solar cable is imported from outside,there is potential for a solar cable manufacturer to build a domestic capacity as well given the rapid growth expected in solar power.
January 9, 2012
However distribution into the millions of villages remains the biggest hurdle even if the people there can afford the products.T here are no good roads and the smaller solar companies lack the marketing muscle of say a big MNC like Hindustan Lever and ITC.People have tried to sell solar products using the microfinance companies but have not had much success as of now.India's government has also pushed some small subsidy schemes but the red tape and the off and on nature has meant failure.
January 9, 2012
Note blatant pump and dump IPO's have made the Indian market a heaven for stock market operators.Despite this going on for years,only recently SEBI has taken some steps against the manipulartion of the primary market.Now SEBI has taken some steps in the Insider Trading case as well by fining executives of JP Associates and Ranbaxy both of which are constituents of the Indian main stock market index. However a mere fine will not do to deter insider traders.A big jail term for a insider trader will make white collar criminals think more in indulging in criminal activity rather than small fines .
January 9, 2012
Coal Stealing and Pilferage by the Coal Mafia has always been done on a massive multi million dollar scale. In the coal rich states of Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and Chattisgarh, Stealing of Coal is a major illegal industry. Everyone knows about it and nothing is done as most officials and politicians get a cut of the illegal gains. Corruption in India is institutionalized as governing bodies remain weak and powerless. Despite India's much touted growth story,all these needling problems have contributed towards the Indian GDP slowing down sharply. Unless governance is improved,its tough to see how India can achieve its potential.
January 9, 2012
Note one of the main dangers of nuclear energy is the probability of the fuel getting into the hands of terrorists and rogue nations which can use it to make nuclear weapons.Note the fears of a Taliban like group getting their hands on nuclear arms in Pakistan is all too real.With Iran getting nuclear weapons,this will increase.Nuclear Power is already being phased out in Germany,Japan,Switzerland after the Fukushima nuclear disaster.The dangers of nuclear energy are too great to make it an option to secure mankind's energy in the future.Despite the advantages of nuclear power,the risks are too great to be played with.