Government
October 24, 2010
WTO Defers Chinese Case to 2011
European Union,Mexico and USA had filed a case with WTO in 2009 over the Chinese monopoly and trade resticitions of rare earth minerals.However WTO has failed to resolve the issue despite a time limit of 6 months.The WTO Panel has defered the WTO case to April 2011 without assigning a reason.WTO is more of a negotiatino forum rather than a body which can punish violators .To expect WTO to make China increase it export quota of rare earth minerals is like living in a fool's paradise.Trade Tensions between China and other world trade powers is already very high.Currency and Global Imbalances are already major issues which threaten to derail the world economic recovery (however faint it maybe).Rare Earth Minerals are proving to be another big thorn in trade relations between China and the West.
October 22, 2010
While Section 301 was a powerful, unilateral U.S. trade policy weapon prior to the establishment of the WTO dispute settlement process, since 1995 it has rarely been invoked and has not produced any sanctions or WTO cases. In a post-WTO world, therefore, the USW petition could be said to be unprecedented. It is the first to be accepted by USTR that, if proven, would, invalidate for WTO purposes what amounts to a national industrial policy. It would seriously undermine the validity of China’s efforts to create “national champions” in certain sectors, to focus on building domestic capacity to address its environmental and energy challenges, and to be a significant, and possibly the dominant, global player in green technologies. Beyond the impact on China, a successful U.S. challenge in the WTO would inevitably chill similar efforts in other countries to use the Chinese industrial development template in other sectors. All of these effects are above and beyond the question of the immediate fall-out that could result if China declines to implement an adverse WTO finding and the U.S. compensation and retaliation is authorized.
October 22, 2010
Surprise Surprise : Indian Real Estate Company Emaar MGF implicated in the Massive Commonwealth Scam
Indian Real Estate Companies have the worst reputation amongst the different sectors in India.Corruption,Irregularities,Creative Accounting,Defrauding Consumers,Tax Raids are common to these companies.In fact the financial statements of the Realty Sector are considered so untrustworthy that some Fund Mangers are loath to invest in the whole sector.Despite a Stock Market Bull Run,a line of Realty Companies have not still managed to raise money from the primary markets because of the distrust with which the general public regards them.A Truly Dubious Achievement for the Real Estate Sector in India.Note both small developers and big developers have been involved in scams and shenanigans.2 Real Estate Companies in the National Capital Region Oreo and Emaar MGF,two of the better known Realty Companies have come under the focus of Indian Investigative agencies.Emaar MGF has been trying to do an IPO for a long time without success.Now it has come under the scanner for irregularities for construction of the Commonwealth Games Village.
October 22, 2010
Microfinance has become one of the hottest growth sectors in India attracting Private Equity Companies eager to take advantage of India's Growth Story.A Number of For-Profit Microfinance Companies have grown exponentially in recent times with funds raised from Foreign PE Firms.The Business Model of these Financial Intermediaries is highly profitable with 25-40% Interest Rates being charged from India's Poor Population who don't have access to credit facilities.Borrowing from Banks at 10-12% and lending at 25% gives a huge spread which more than covers the cost of operations in dealing with a huge number of very small borrowers in far flung areas.The recent IPO of SKS Microfinance was a huge success instantly makings it promoters instant millionaires.The stock which was expensively valued nonetheless managed to climb by almost 40% in the last 2 months.It brought into focus the whether making such huge profits through essentialy usury from the poor was ethical or not.
October 22, 2010
The JV with the Adani Group is a win-win for both companies.Adani Group is setting up 16000 MW of Thermal Based Plants in India over the next few years and has also planned a 100 MW Solar Plant in Gujarat.It has started a company Adani Renewable Energy to take forward its Green Energy initiatives.The tie-up with Siemens will allow it to access cutting edge Green Technology while Siemens will get a huge customer for its Energy Equipment.Renewable Energy in India is a huge growth opportunity considering that India will have to increase its Renewable Energy by almost 45 GW over the next 10 years if it has to meet 15% of its Electricity Requirements from Green Sources as mandated by the CERC.
October 22, 2010
South Korea has said that it would reduce its dependence on China for rare earth minerals.The Country has reduced imports of Rare Earth Minerals from 7398 tons in 2005 to 2655 tons in 2009.Note most of the reduction came after South Korean Chaebols Samsung and LG shifted their production from CRTs to LCD and Plasma Display Panels.The country now imports 65% of its REE requirements from China and most of the rest from Japan.The country plans to increase cooperation with traditional ally USA and Japan to meet future demand for these commodities.However I have my doubt whether South Korea can reduce its dependence.South Korea has embarked on a major Green Stimulus which is the biggest as a percentage amongst Developed Countries.This is going to mean increased demand for rare earth minerals which are essential for Magnets in Wind Turbines and Batteries and Catalytic Converters for Electric Vehicles.Japan is already planning huge investments into developing alternate supply sources,perhaps South Korea needs to show that urgency as well
October 21, 2010
Haryana is one of the richest states in India strategically located near India's capital of Delhi.Haryana cities like Gurgaon and Faridabad have benefited hugely from being part of India's National Capital Region (NCR).However Haryana only generates 0.5% of its 4000 MW of Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources.The state has negligible Wind or Biomass Energy.Despite a Department of Renewable Energy being setup to specifically promote the use of Alternative Energy Sources,the state has not had much success.Haryana is richly endowed with Solar Energy Resources with 320 days sunny days.The State has managed to win some allocation from the centre's JNNSM scheme.It is also promoting the use of solar energy through disseminating solar kits amongst 2000 schools and providing solar lighting in around 500 villages.Note India had already made it mandatory for 6% of the Energy to be generated from Renewable Energy Sources.Haryana has a long way to go and might have to buy a huge amount of expensive Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) unless it gets its act together.
October 21, 2010
The HPUC has given a FIT rate which is quite low for solar energy and has failed to implement a policy for installations between 500-5000 KW.Also the FIT rates for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) does not make sense at all for under 500 KW installations.Don't think there exists a single decent producer of such small CSP plants.The FIT Policy was passed despite stiff opposition from the island's utilities who questioned the Feed in Tariff as a good Green Incentive.The huge success enjoyed in Europe by FIT did not make a big impression.Note 80% of the world's solar installations depend on Feed in Tariffs.While there have been bad implementation cases of FIT in Spain and Czech,there have been huge successes in other countries like Germany and UK.HPUC rightly decided to go ahead as trial and errors would be needed . It won't lead to a huge boom in solar in Hawai due to poor returns however it should lead to some boost to existing solar producers or those who were going to install solar anyway.
October 21, 2010
India does not have a lot of good information on the Internet about various common things and it is frustrating and time consuming to go about in choosing the right option.I tried to buy insurance on my 3 year old car and there was not a lot of good blogs/websites which would indicate how to go about buying the cheapest car insurance out there.Most of the websites and insurance comparison websites that have come up are in general biased and promote companies in order to generate commissions.So I decided on doing investigation on my own and finally managed to get extremely cheap car insurance which even surprised me.So even though this blog does not deal with personal finance issues much,I though I would write my experience so that others could benefit without without wasting time and money.
October 21, 2010
Food Prices are rising at an incredible pace around the world due to a combination of money printing by the USA and Bad Weather in Russia and Asia.The major cause of the Food Price Increase has been the global rush towards investing in commodities as currencies get devalued by countries eager to increase exports in a zero sum game.Wheat Prices were the first to rise after Russia stopped exports leading to the sharpest gain in the last 2 years.Corn prices have increased with increased demand from ethanol,bad harvests and relentless QE.Rice and Soybean prices were bound to rise in empathy with other grain prices.Note these two food varieties are substitutes of corn and wheat.So it makes sense for speculators and consumers to increase the demand for these 2 commodities as well.
Rice Price Increase after Flooding in Biggest Exporters
Rice Prices have shown a record increase after floods sharply reduced output in the 2 main exporter Vietnam and Thailand.With inventories being sharply cut and harvests going down it is not much of a surprise.Rice importing countries like Philippines will be badly hit as their per capita income is quite low and they have a large poor population highly sensitive to increasing food prices.Expect 2011 to be a Hunger Year for a large chunk of the world's population thanks to Ben Bernake and print his way to prosperity team.
October 20, 2010
Rare Earth Metals which are sold as oxides have seen an exponential price rise in recent months with the corresponding rise in stock prices of rare earth stocks like Lynas,Molycorp,Avalon,Jiangxi Copper,Chinalco,Inner Mongolia Bao-Tao etc.While China has now said that it will increase production and exports of rare earth minerals next year,the confusing signals are sure to keep the prices of the rare earth minerals high.Note the reserves and production of rare earth minerals are finite and their uses growing ,the prices of rare earth minerals are bound to increase.While the last 2 months increase has been due to a combination of geopolitical factors,quantitative easing and speculation,it looks in the years ahead rare earth price should keep increasing.Note other supply sources are being developed in Russia,Vietnam,Kazakhstan,Australia,Africa and Canada.So there will be a lots of ups and downs,however the secular growth story of rare earth prices is intact.
October 20, 2010
According to a report from Maplecroft,India and Bangladesh are the countries most at risk from the deleterious effects of Climate Change.The other countries in South Asia like Nepal,Myanmar,Pakistan are not far behind.Maldives the smallest country in South Asia is the heaviest in danger with its very existence at stake.Next in the list are African countries like Mozambique,Madagascar and others from Global Warming Changes like Droughts,Floods,Submersion etc.Note Climate Change has faced massive setbacks in recent time with the failure of the Copenhagen meet and not much chance of success with the next Cancun meet.USA and China the two biggest emitters of GHGs have been reluctant to move forward in the the Climate Change issue.Note the poorest countries are the most vulnerable to climate change and they have the least voice in climate change talks.Rich countries like Saudi Arabia have even blocked studies on climate change by poor island nations.
October 18, 2010
India's Massively Growing Industry is clashing head-on with the Environment leading to huge fissures.There have been numerous clashes already with many of the mega industrial projects being cancelled or shifted.Tata Motor's Nano Project in Singur,West Bengal was probably the most famous project to be scrapped after a huge people's uprising due to loss of land and livelihood.Unlike China,where industry manages to always win over people's protests,it is not that easy in India's Democracy.Orissa recently saw Vedanta Resources Bauxite Mining Project cancelled over loss of tribal sacred land loss concerns.This was a huge victory for India's environmentalists as officials and companies were found breaking forest and environment laws.Now POSCO which has been trying to build a $12 Billion Steel Plant in the Mineral Rich State of Eastern India finds that Green Approvals given might be cancelled by a panel of government experts.Note the POSCO project was stopped recently pending an environmental assessment whose report will be published on Oct 25.Despite hectic lobbying by POSCO and the provincial Orissa government,the project looks set for more delays.Note the Steel Plant which was started in 2005 is already way behind schedule.
October 18, 2010
Wind Energy in India is the biggest Green Industry currently with around 1 GW of Wind Power Capacity being installed in a year on average.The Growth in Wind Industry has been driven by states like Tamil Nadu who have heavily subsidized and promted Wind Energy.India at around 10 GW of Wind Capacity is the world's 5th largest Wind Energy Producer.However India remains far behind China in terms of Wind Energy Growth .Last Year China installed nearly 13 GW of Wind Energy which is more than India's total installed capacity of Wind Energy.With a target of around 230 GW by 2020,China is on track to install 20 GW of WInd Capacity a Year in the next 10 years which would make India a Pygmy.Also two of the largest Wind Turbine Producers Sinovel and Goldwind are from China.India despite producing a world class company Suzlon in the early states of Wind Industry Development is struggling.Suzlon has fallen on very hard times running big losses while other Wind Companies are of hardly any decent size.
October 17, 2010
US Steelworkers Union filed a Trade Complaint against China over its predatory practices in Green Sectors recently listing numerous infringements.While it was not thought of as a serious complaint because all Green Sectors have an element of Subsidy from Governments.This was seen as more of a tactical maneuver to gain more concessions from Chinese Green Investors in the USA like the A-Power deal with USW to buy USA made Steel for its Wind Turbine Plant in the USA.However what has been surprising is the alacrity with which the USA administration has accepted the 301 Filing.Now the USA Government Apparatus will investigate the claims and file punitive duties and penalties on Chinese made Green Products imported into the US.This has already resulted in a major stock sell-off in Chinese Solar Stocks which were enjoying a great rally.Note this Green War is part of a general Trade Cold War between the USA and China.This threatens to derail the feeble global economic recovery that we have seen so far.Without compromise and agreement between the major global powers on reducing the huge global imbalances,this could easily result in a Depression which was averted in 2008.
October 14, 2010
Coal India IPO the biggest primary market-raising company in the history of the markets has raised a huge amount of investor interest.The investor is barraged with […]
October 14, 2010
1) Tax on Solar Subsidies - The Czech Government which used to give a tax holiday to solar energy revenues will be withdrawn and a new tax rate will be introduced.
2) No more Free Carbon Credits - The administration will generate revenue through selling the carbon credits rather than giving it free to Renewable Energy Producers.This will remove another source of return for solar investors.
3) Rent for Power Plants on Agricultural Lands - The Government also plans to impose a Fee on Solar Power Plants that are built on Agricultural Lands.
Czech is facing a massive economic problem due to the increase in electricity prices at a time of Fiscal Compression.This has been mainly an outcome of huge subsidies being given to the solar energy producers.With almost 1.6 GW of Solar Energy being installed by 2010,the government had no other option than to clamp down and clawback some of the super-normal profits being given to solar investors.
October 13, 2010
The Transmission Line will give a huge boost to Offshore WInd Energy in the United States.The Government has estimated a 4000 GW Offshore Wind Potential which is almost 4 times bigger than the current 1000 GW Electricity Generating Capacity . However note the load factors for wind is usually 1/4th to 1/3rd that of normal Fossil Fuel Energy so it would be incorrect to say that Offshore Wind could generate 4 times the current US Electricity like some websites are doing.However this is not to takeaway from the fact that this will help wind energy and green jobs considerably.US is seriously lagging behind countries like China and South Korea in the upcoming Green Industry.Lack of US Climate Legislation and indifferent individuals and companies are creating massive roadblocks in Climate Mitigation.Tranmission Costs are a big hurdle for Offshore as well as Onshore Wind Energy.Note the bigger the consumer area for Renewable Energy the less the adverse affects of intermittency.The Tres Amigas Transmission SuperHub is another example of Private Initiative in the Electricity Transmission Area.While the dollar benefits to the investing companies might be uncertain,the Green Benefits of this move are immense.The US Electricity Regulator has already given a thumbs up and the US Administration also seems very supportive recently approving the Cape Wind Offshore Wind Farm in Federal Waters in Nanutech Sound.
October 13, 2010
42% of World's Hungry Children Live in India
In contrast to the exponential growth of wealth of India's upper classes,the poor continue to eke out a miserable existence mired in hunger and constantly facing starvation.Globalization of Agriculture has further increased Food Price Inflation making their positive even more precarious.According to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI),India slipped 2 places to be ranked in the 67th place amongst 88 nations in the Hunger Index.Despite a stellar economic performance over the last 20 years or so and sharp rise in per capita GDP,India remains one of the poorest nations on earth.It ranks below even Nepal,Pakistan,Sudan with 48% of India's children stunted due to lack of food.The report is a strong indictment of growth policies which has made its children mostly hungry and stunted.Other strongly growing economies like Brazil and China have performed much better than India.Time for India's government to radically change the structure of India's economic growth.Despite promotion of policies like NREGA and midday meals for poor,rank corruption and leakage has led to India being the hungriest nation on earth.
October 13, 2010
Note Solar Panels prices differ widely depending on the technology,power,brand and quality.Thin Film Panels in general cost lower than crystalline silicon panels.Higher Power Panels have a higher price as they generate more electricity.Good Brands also have a higher price tag while cheap imported Chinese panels cost less.Solar Panel prices have decreased by almost 50% in the last 2-3 years and now sell for around Rs 1800-2500 per panel internationally and should fall to around Rs 1000 in the next 3-4 years . However for small installations on house of 1-5 KiloWatts,panels sold by distributors is more expensive and can cost you almost 50% more.Also Solar Panels form only a part of the total Solar System Cost.The total cost of installation,equipment and wiring can cost upto Rs 30,000/Kilowatt.
October 12, 2010
Saint Gobain like Semiconductor Giant TSMC is betting on Copper Indium Gallium Selenium (CIGs) Technology rather than the mainstream crystalline silicon technology.CIGs is getting the most significant investments these days compared to other thin film technology.Yesterday Ascent Solar (ASTI) got an IEC certification for its flexible modules which would enable it to target the mainstream rooftop market from niche applications earlier.Miasole has improved the efficiency and costs of it CIGs greatly while Nanosolar can't be counted out because of its strong backers.Solyndra however remains mostly in the shadows despite around $1 billion in private investment.Stion is another strong contender partnering with TSMC and also thinking of opening a plant in Taiwan on its own as well.Saint Gobain is already a big player in the solar market as it suppliers glass to a lot of solar companies for their modules.Getting into panel manufacturing will further allow it to get a foothold of this new potentially giant industry.Du Pont,Dow Chemicals,Corning all have considerable presence in the solar equipment market as well.
October 11, 2010
Abu Dhabi has got the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world with asset of over $600 Billion.The small emirate which is a part of the larger United Arab Emirates is one of the richest countries in the world due to its Oil Riches.The country had made ambitious Renewable Energy Plans setting up a Fund/Company dedicated to its Green Ambitions called Masdar.The Company has faced a number of reverses as it tried a number of things all at once in a new industry.Its "Jack of All Trades" Strategy has proven to be a failure as it lost/fired a number of top executives.Its Solar Plans have also come up a cropper as Thin Film Technology has faced a lot of reverses in recent times.The Company has tried to change tactics by concentrating now on Solar Thermal Technology partnering with Abengoa and Total in building a CSP plant near Abu Dhabi.With its Renewable Energy Arm facing a number of reverses,its plan for a futuristic,zero carbon Green Masdar City has also been scaled down.
October 11, 2010
Constellation Energy has become the latest USA Utility to cancel its proposed new nuclear energy plant to be built in Maryland.Despite a Loan Guarantee from Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the US Green Stimulus,Constellation has found the economics of the Nuclear Reactors as unworkable.In fact this is keeping with the trend of other utilities in the Developed World who have found New Nuclear to be too expensive.While a number of cyclical factors are at play (Wind Energy has also been affected) in hindering the development of these plants,it seems a secular shift has occured.Finland has become the poster boy of a Nuclear Project Disaster with the main developer Areva bleeding from losses as time and cost overruns have almost doubled.The increaseing costs of environment and safety regulations has increase manifold since the last spurt of nuclear energy construction in the 1980s.The Nuclear Renaissance has proven to be a complete failure in the Western Countries.While China continues with its aggressive Nuclear Expansion plans,construction in the US has come to a virtual halt.Exelon which is the largest Nuclear Energy Operator in the USA has also halted developed of 2 new reactors in Texas.These Utilities have said that they need much higher energy prices and a carbon tax before going ahead with reaction construction.Note Exelon recently bought a Wind Energy Operator as Solar/Wind become the favored Green Energy choices.
October 11, 2010
A US expert has said that India was the target of the Stuxnet Attack rather than Iran.India's Insat 4B Communications Satellite suffered from a malfunction recently and it used the same Siemens software which was the target of this Worm Attack.India has been subject to Chinese cyberwarfare attacks in the past .This has led to a general wariness in the Indian Establishment over Chinese origin companies like Huawei operating in India.Tensions between Indian and China have been rising over a range of issues such as territory,supply of arms and nuclear reactors to Pakistan and construction of military bases around India.The failure of an Indian Communications Satellite without any explicit attack done surreptitiously by Chinese hackers does not seem far fetched.Nothing would be clearly known to the general public given the clandestine nature of these cyberwarfare between nation states.However India's decision to bolster its cyberwarfare capabilities and the recent decision by Google to abandon China,all point to China using cyberattacks as an instrument of statecraft.
October 11, 2010
Coal India is coming out with India's biggest IPO offering in the Stock Market History.The company seems fundamentally strong on almost all aspects and is also pricing itself at a significant discount to its global peers.Both superficially and deep down,the analysis points CIL to be a very safe investment at a cheap valuation.Other analysts are also coming to the same conclusion,as Rating Agency has given CIL a 5/5 Rating which is probably the first in the history of IPO Grading .In order to give a more balanced perspective and avoid herd tendencies,I am listing out what the risks and negatives are with this company.Note this does not make me negative on the stock on which I am very positively biased.It is just to give investors the other side of the debate which I think general analysis will lack.
Despite the above Risks , I think that Coal India is one of the best quality stocks to come out in India's Primary Markets.However investors should be wary of the risks which will be glossed over by the mainstream media and brokerages . As with every investment however safe it might look,there are risks.This does not mean that investors should be fearful of every investment.It is by being aware of the risks,that prudent risk management can be done which is essential to successful investing.
October 7, 2010
Eastern Europe has seen a massive Green Energy Boom driven by EU 20% Renewable Energy by 2020 Target.Romania has been no exception to their Region Wide Green Growth.In fact Romania is said to have the best Wind Energy Sites in the whole of Europe with a 14 GW potential.The Government has attracted big Wind Developers like CEZ,E.ON and others through a generous Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Scheme.Note the REC Subsidy Mechanism is a popular way of promoting Green Energy by making it mandatory for Utilities to procure a certain portion of their Energy Needs from Green Sources.They have to buy RECs from Trading Exchanges if they are unable to meet their targets.
October 7, 2010
Renewable Energy is Easter Europe has boomed driven by government incentives and subsidies.Many of these countries like Estonia,Bulgaria and Czech are cutting or already have cut generous feed in tariffs paid to Green Energy Investors.While Czech has seen an unprecedented Solar Boom leading to a massive public backlash,Estonia and Bulgaria have seen huge wind energy projects.The Green Energy has boomed in the last 2 years mainly as governments in these countries try to meet the Renewable Energy Target of 20% by 2020 set by the European Union.These East European countries have been hit hard by these EU directives as the costs have spiralled
October 7, 2010
Coal India Limited (CIL) is the biggest IPO in the history of the Indian markets.The Company has generated a lot of investor interest because of a number of firsts.It is the largest coal producer in the world in one of the biggest demand growth regions.The company has excellent fundamentals being rated 5/5 by the rating agency.The government has disallowed anchor investors for the IPO as it finds that allocation could be construed as biased.Note Anchor Investors in Indian IPOs are favored investor who are preallocated a fixed amount of shares by investment bankers.This is similar to the US practice where all of the IPO is offered to institutional investors by investment bankers solely on their discretion.India is much more egalitarian in its approach to IPO regulation with a fixed amount 35% reserved for retail investors .The pricing of the issue has been a hot topic of speculation with the expected price range to give it a multiple of around 15x which is around 20-30% cheaper than comparable large US and China coal companies like Massey,Shenhua and others.
October 5, 2010
The Government of India has formed a high powered panel to look into replacing the usage of diesel powered gensets by Renewable Energy in Telecom Towers.India has around 300,000 Telecom Towers most of which are powered by expensive diesel generators.The reason is that a lot of the telecom towers are situated in far flung areas where the grid does not exist.Also the power supply in India is erratic and not reliable with 10 hour electricity blackouts not an infrequent occurrence.In these cases a backup supply of electricity supply is badly needed.Diesel Generators are the most popular form with Diesel heavily subsidized by the government in comparison to normal petroleum.Also Diesel Generators are widely available without huge capital costs.
October 5, 2010
Japan is now looking to develop mines in Vietnam and Kazakhstan to secure these minerals which are essential to the green and defence industries.The desperation seems high amongst the Japanese as they are also looking to prospect for these minerals in the seas surrounding Japan.Besides these efforts to secure these minerals from newer sources,METI is also looking to recycling and efficiency measures.The Government will set up reprocessing plants in Japan in order to reduce dependence as well as invest in newer methods and processes to increase the efficiency of the usage of these Rare Earth Minerals.While the embargo seems to have eased with reports that the Chinese have allowed one ship with Rare Earth Minerals to proceed to Japan,the future seems uncertain.Lynas Corp ,the Australian Rare Earth Miner which is going to start production in 2011 has said that it has got a Japanese customer for its products.