Blog
October 25, 2010
Wind Energy Companies in the Developed Markets have taken it on the chin in 2010.Companies dependent on the Wind Energy Markets in the West like Vestas,Gamesa,Suzlon,Iberdola Renewables etc. have had a very bad 2010 as their stocks price keep finding new lows.A Combination of Tough Financing Markets,Low Gas Prices and Declining Electricity Demand has made the livers of Wind Executives hellish in recent times.More competition in terms of Chinese heavyweights like Sinovel,Goldwind and Koean shipbuidlers precludes an easy recovery.Green IPOs in recent times have faced huge volatility with some managing success while others have led to huge losses.China's Ming Yang Power which is a Chinese Turbine Manufacturer has seen a 30% erosion of its IPO stock price of $14 as it was priced a tad too aggressively.First Wind which is a bit different being a Wind Energy Developer similar to renewable energy developers like Enel Green Power,EDF Novellas might face a frosty reception as well.Its not a good time to be in the wind energy business as increasing competition and declining demand cause problems.Note John Deere sold off its Renewable Energy Arm for a bargain as US Climate Change Legislation seems stuck in an everlasting limbo.Without a Federal RPS and an expiring 30% Treasury Cash Grant for Wind Farms,2011 is very uncertain for Wind Energy in the USA.
October 25, 2010
India hopes to derive annual revenues of more than $1 billion dollars from a new coal tax it has introduced.These revenues will go to a proposed Green Bank which will fund Green Energy Projects and R&D in the Country.While initially the funds will be managed by the government's financial agency IREDA,later on a full fledged Green Bank will be managing the annual $1 Billion Coal Tax.Note Coal is the biggest Energy Source for India and China.Both countries are trying to diversify their dependence from Coal as it is the dirtiest form of energy.However the cheapness and abundance has made coal indispensable to the voracious energy requirements of both countries.Coal India Limited (CIL) which came out with an IPO recently was a resounding success in India showing that investors believe that Coal will contiue to grow and dominate the Energy Scene in India.
October 24, 2010
The Indian Post Office entered into the business of selling Gold Coins in 2008 after tying up with Reliance Money which is part of the ADAG Group.Amongst the Investment Options in Buying Gold in India,Trusted Family Jewellers had seemed the best option in buying physical gold in India.However a number of investors might not have that option so the next best thing in my opinion to buying physical gold is from the Indian Post Office.The reason is that the margins charged is around 7% which is less than the 12% being charged by the Indian Banks.Note these gold coins are certified by the top notch Swiss name and have the endorsement of the World Gold Council as well.
Summary
While Gold ETFs are the proffered investment of choice while buying paper gold,it makes sense to have some physical gold in your portfolio as well.There are both pros and cons in holding physical gold,so depending on the investor's attitude one can hold a certain percentage of his gold holdings in physical gold.The Indian Post Office seems a good bet on buying physical gold compared to the Indian Banks.
October 24, 2010
Solar Power in India is growing at a rapid clip with the strong government support through the ambitious Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM).Rapidly Falling Costs,Massive Power Deficits,Huge Growing Energy Demand and Peak Oil all make Solar Energy in India one of the biggest energy opportunities in the 21st Century.People are slowly recognizing this large Green Money Making Opportunity with companies like Suntech,Siemens and Trina Solar entering into partnership with local players.Suntech has tied up with independent power producer IPP while Siemens has tied up for solar thermal energy with the Adani Conglomerate.This is just the initial trickle with large foreign companies waiting to flood the Indian market.There have been some initial hiccups in Debt Financing of Solar Energy in India but I expect the long term secular growth story to be unaffected. Solar Power Companies in India can be divided into various categories based on solar equipment manufacturing,independent power producer,renewable arms of large power companies etc.I have already covered the Top 10 Solar Module Production Companies in my Solar Panels in India article.Here is the list once again.
October 24, 2010
Concentrated Photovoltaic (CPV) Technology Gaining Ground
Concentrated Photovoltaic (CPV) Technology has found some favor in 2010 with some major projects and investments coming its way.CPV Technology which is a poorer cousin of its more illustrious PV Technologies like c-Si and Thin Film has found some attention with its low cost and high efficiency.US Startups like Amonix,Solaria have found some traction bagging some big projects backed by financial investors.Concentrix Solar backed by European Specialist Wafer Producer Soitec has recently announced a partnership deal with US Energy Efficiency Leader Johnson Controls.With c-Si Technology fast reaching its Efficiency Limits,CPV is looked upon as the way forward for the Technology to progress.CPV Technology works by concentrating the energy of the sun through optics and has the potential to dramatically cut the costs as it uses much less materials.The Technology slowed down because of the polysilicon price crash but has found increasing attention in the past few days
October 24, 2010
WTO Defers Chinese Case to 2011
European Union,Mexico and USA had filed a case with WTO in 2009 over the Chinese monopoly and trade resticitions of rare earth minerals.However WTO has failed to resolve the issue despite a time limit of 6 months.The WTO Panel has defered the WTO case to April 2011 without assigning a reason.WTO is more of a negotiatino forum rather than a body which can punish violators .To expect WTO to make China increase it export quota of rare earth minerals is like living in a fool's paradise.Trade Tensions between China and other world trade powers is already very high.Currency and Global Imbalances are already major issues which threaten to derail the world economic recovery (however faint it maybe).Rare Earth Minerals are proving to be another big thorn in trade relations between China and the West.
October 22, 2010
Solar Frontier is a subsidiary of Showa Shell Sekiyu and is listed on the Japanese Stock Exchange.The Company has big plans for the Solar Energy Market planning to increase its capacity by more than 10 times in 2011 to around 1 Gw in total.All its 3 plants are located in Miyazaki in Japan and uses previous plasma plant of Hitachi.Solar Frontier claims 11.5% efficiency for its CIS modules which are expected to go upto 14% by 2014.The Company is spending around $1 Billion in Capex for building the 1 GW capacity implying roughly $1 capex/watt which is not exactly cheap though not very expensive either.Note Thin Film Competition is hotting up with Saint Gobain-Hyundai,TSMC,Miasole,Oerlikon Solar,Sharp,Nanosolar all making plans for huge capacity expansion in the next couple of years.Solar Frontier has signed some small deals for supplying 1-3 MW in Thailand,Japan and Australia Recently.However the cost structure of the company is not known till now just like Sharp.While Solar Frontier looks good on the capacity and partnerships front,it has still to prove itself on costs to really push the Chinese Solar Companies which are dominating the Solar Scene right now with their low cost polysilicon panel production.Note 60% of the Solar Panel Production in Q210 was estimated to be done by Chinese based manufacturers.
October 22, 2010
While Section 301 was a powerful, unilateral U.S. trade policy weapon prior to the establishment of the WTO dispute settlement process, since 1995 it has rarely been invoked and has not produced any sanctions or WTO cases. In a post-WTO world, therefore, the USW petition could be said to be unprecedented. It is the first to be accepted by USTR that, if proven, would, invalidate for WTO purposes what amounts to a national industrial policy. It would seriously undermine the validity of China’s efforts to create “national champions” in certain sectors, to focus on building domestic capacity to address its environmental and energy challenges, and to be a significant, and possibly the dominant, global player in green technologies. Beyond the impact on China, a successful U.S. challenge in the WTO would inevitably chill similar efforts in other countries to use the Chinese industrial development template in other sectors. All of these effects are above and beyond the question of the immediate fall-out that could result if China declines to implement an adverse WTO finding and the U.S. compensation and retaliation is authorized.
October 22, 2010
Surprise Surprise : Indian Real Estate Company Emaar MGF implicated in the Massive Commonwealth Scam
Indian Real Estate Companies have the worst reputation amongst the different sectors in India.Corruption,Irregularities,Creative Accounting,Defrauding Consumers,Tax Raids are common to these companies.In fact the financial statements of the Realty Sector are considered so untrustworthy that some Fund Mangers are loath to invest in the whole sector.Despite a Stock Market Bull Run,a line of Realty Companies have not still managed to raise money from the primary markets because of the distrust with which the general public regards them.A Truly Dubious Achievement for the Real Estate Sector in India.Note both small developers and big developers have been involved in scams and shenanigans.2 Real Estate Companies in the National Capital Region Oreo and Emaar MGF,two of the better known Realty Companies have come under the focus of Indian Investigative agencies.Emaar MGF has been trying to do an IPO for a long time without success.Now it has come under the scanner for irregularities for construction of the Commonwealth Games Village.
October 22, 2010
Microfinance has become one of the hottest growth sectors in India attracting Private Equity Companies eager to take advantage of India's Growth Story.A Number of For-Profit Microfinance Companies have grown exponentially in recent times with funds raised from Foreign PE Firms.The Business Model of these Financial Intermediaries is highly profitable with 25-40% Interest Rates being charged from India's Poor Population who don't have access to credit facilities.Borrowing from Banks at 10-12% and lending at 25% gives a huge spread which more than covers the cost of operations in dealing with a huge number of very small borrowers in far flung areas.The recent IPO of SKS Microfinance was a huge success instantly makings it promoters instant millionaires.The stock which was expensively valued nonetheless managed to climb by almost 40% in the last 2 months.It brought into focus the whether making such huge profits through essentialy usury from the poor was ethical or not.
October 22, 2010
The JV with the Adani Group is a win-win for both companies.Adani Group is setting up 16000 MW of Thermal Based Plants in India over the next few years and has also planned a 100 MW Solar Plant in Gujarat.It has started a company Adani Renewable Energy to take forward its Green Energy initiatives.The tie-up with Siemens will allow it to access cutting edge Green Technology while Siemens will get a huge customer for its Energy Equipment.Renewable Energy in India is a huge growth opportunity considering that India will have to increase its Renewable Energy by almost 45 GW over the next 10 years if it has to meet 15% of its Electricity Requirements from Green Sources as mandated by the CERC.
October 22, 2010
South Korea has said that it would reduce its dependence on China for rare earth minerals.The Country has reduced imports of Rare Earth Minerals from 7398 tons in 2005 to 2655 tons in 2009.Note most of the reduction came after South Korean Chaebols Samsung and LG shifted their production from CRTs to LCD and Plasma Display Panels.The country now imports 65% of its REE requirements from China and most of the rest from Japan.The country plans to increase cooperation with traditional ally USA and Japan to meet future demand for these commodities.However I have my doubt whether South Korea can reduce its dependence.South Korea has embarked on a major Green Stimulus which is the biggest as a percentage amongst Developed Countries.This is going to mean increased demand for rare earth minerals which are essential for Magnets in Wind Turbines and Batteries and Catalytic Converters for Electric Vehicles.Japan is already planning huge investments into developing alternate supply sources,perhaps South Korea needs to show that urgency as well
October 21, 2010
Haryana is one of the richest states in India strategically located near India's capital of Delhi.Haryana cities like Gurgaon and Faridabad have benefited hugely from being part of India's National Capital Region (NCR).However Haryana only generates 0.5% of its 4000 MW of Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources.The state has negligible Wind or Biomass Energy.Despite a Department of Renewable Energy being setup to specifically promote the use of Alternative Energy Sources,the state has not had much success.Haryana is richly endowed with Solar Energy Resources with 320 days sunny days.The State has managed to win some allocation from the centre's JNNSM scheme.It is also promoting the use of solar energy through disseminating solar kits amongst 2000 schools and providing solar lighting in around 500 villages.Note India had already made it mandatory for 6% of the Energy to be generated from Renewable Energy Sources.Haryana has a long way to go and might have to buy a huge amount of expensive Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) unless it gets its act together.
October 21, 2010
The HPUC has given a FIT rate which is quite low for solar energy and has failed to implement a policy for installations between 500-5000 KW.Also the FIT rates for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) does not make sense at all for under 500 KW installations.Don't think there exists a single decent producer of such small CSP plants.The FIT Policy was passed despite stiff opposition from the island's utilities who questioned the Feed in Tariff as a good Green Incentive.The huge success enjoyed in Europe by FIT did not make a big impression.Note 80% of the world's solar installations depend on Feed in Tariffs.While there have been bad implementation cases of FIT in Spain and Czech,there have been huge successes in other countries like Germany and UK.HPUC rightly decided to go ahead as trial and errors would be needed . It won't lead to a huge boom in solar in Hawai due to poor returns however it should lead to some boost to existing solar producers or those who were going to install solar anyway.
October 21, 2010
India does not have a lot of good information on the Internet about various common things and it is frustrating and time consuming to go about in choosing the right option.I tried to buy insurance on my 3 year old car and there was not a lot of good blogs/websites which would indicate how to go about buying the cheapest car insurance out there.Most of the websites and insurance comparison websites that have come up are in general biased and promote companies in order to generate commissions.So I decided on doing investigation on my own and finally managed to get extremely cheap car insurance which even surprised me.So even though this blog does not deal with personal finance issues much,I though I would write my experience so that others could benefit without without wasting time and money.
October 21, 2010
Food Prices are rising at an incredible pace around the world due to a combination of money printing by the USA and Bad Weather in Russia and Asia.The major cause of the Food Price Increase has been the global rush towards investing in commodities as currencies get devalued by countries eager to increase exports in a zero sum game.Wheat Prices were the first to rise after Russia stopped exports leading to the sharpest gain in the last 2 years.Corn prices have increased with increased demand from ethanol,bad harvests and relentless QE.Rice and Soybean prices were bound to rise in empathy with other grain prices.Note these two food varieties are substitutes of corn and wheat.So it makes sense for speculators and consumers to increase the demand for these 2 commodities as well.
Rice Price Increase after Flooding in Biggest Exporters
Rice Prices have shown a record increase after floods sharply reduced output in the 2 main exporter Vietnam and Thailand.With inventories being sharply cut and harvests going down it is not much of a surprise.Rice importing countries like Philippines will be badly hit as their per capita income is quite low and they have a large poor population highly sensitive to increasing food prices.Expect 2011 to be a Hunger Year for a large chunk of the world's population thanks to Ben Bernake and print his way to prosperity team.
October 20, 2010
Rare Earth Metals which are sold as oxides have seen an exponential price rise in recent months with the corresponding rise in stock prices of rare earth stocks like Lynas,Molycorp,Avalon,Jiangxi Copper,Chinalco,Inner Mongolia Bao-Tao etc.While China has now said that it will increase production and exports of rare earth minerals next year,the confusing signals are sure to keep the prices of the rare earth minerals high.Note the reserves and production of rare earth minerals are finite and their uses growing ,the prices of rare earth minerals are bound to increase.While the last 2 months increase has been due to a combination of geopolitical factors,quantitative easing and speculation,it looks in the years ahead rare earth price should keep increasing.Note other supply sources are being developed in Russia,Vietnam,Kazakhstan,Australia,Africa and Canada.So there will be a lots of ups and downs,however the secular growth story of rare earth prices is intact.
October 20, 2010
The Commonwealth Games (CWG) hosted in New Delhi,India recently gave rise to a monumental scam.It is an open secret that huge amounts of cash were siphoned off by officials,politicians and contractors involved in infrastructure building.The cheating and fraud committed on public money has been exposed already.Some of the officials have been fired without a single one being jailed or convicted.The CWG Committee was led by a leader of India's ruling party Suresh Kalmadi while the provincial government of Delhi is also ruled over the the Congress Party.The probes and investigation which were held in abeyance until the completion of the Games has started now.However like always expect a lot of media fanfare without any convictions or jailtime for the offenders.India's Ruling Party Members are already blaming each other openly for being corrupt without fear of retribution.India's Political and Business Elite has made the mockery of Indian Justice System a Child's Game.The Chief Opposition Party also can't come all guns blazing as one of its leader Sudhanshu Mittal has also been a kingpin in the Corruption Racket.
October 20, 2010
According to a report from Maplecroft,India and Bangladesh are the countries most at risk from the deleterious effects of Climate Change.The other countries in South Asia like Nepal,Myanmar,Pakistan are not far behind.Maldives the smallest country in South Asia is the heaviest in danger with its very existence at stake.Next in the list are African countries like Mozambique,Madagascar and others from Global Warming Changes like Droughts,Floods,Submersion etc.Note Climate Change has faced massive setbacks in recent time with the failure of the Copenhagen meet and not much chance of success with the next Cancun meet.USA and China the two biggest emitters of GHGs have been reluctant to move forward in the the Climate Change issue.Note the poorest countries are the most vulnerable to climate change and they have the least voice in climate change talks.Rich countries like Saudi Arabia have even blocked studies on climate change by poor island nations.
October 18, 2010
India is one of the largest consumers of Gold in the world with a strong cultural and religious affinity for this "barbaric relic".Giving of gold jewellery during marriage is sort of compulsory and is even bought as an investment.The high prices of gold has failed to dampen the enthusiasm for gold amongst India's increasingly wealthy classes.While Silver is also bought during some auspicious days such as "Dhanteras",Gold rules the roost as far as precious metals are concerned.Traditionally Gold has been bought from jewellers in the form of jewellery by Indians,however sophistication of the Indian Financial Industry has increased the gold buying options for Indian investors.Here is examining some of the pros and cons of different investment options .
Summary
The best way to buy gold in India is through Gold BeEs ETF for low expenses and liquidity.However if you want to buy physical gold then your trusted family jeweler may the best choice as Banks and Reputed Retailers of Gold charge an exorbitant 8-10% transaction cost one way on gold.Can't understand why the Banks have to fleece the customers in case of selling Gold.But knowing Indian Banks who love Regulation in fear of competition amongst each other it does not come as a big surprise.
October 18, 2010
India's Massively Growing Industry is clashing head-on with the Environment leading to huge fissures.There have been numerous clashes already with many of the mega industrial projects being cancelled or shifted.Tata Motor's Nano Project in Singur,West Bengal was probably the most famous project to be scrapped after a huge people's uprising due to loss of land and livelihood.Unlike China,where industry manages to always win over people's protests,it is not that easy in India's Democracy.Orissa recently saw Vedanta Resources Bauxite Mining Project cancelled over loss of tribal sacred land loss concerns.This was a huge victory for India's environmentalists as officials and companies were found breaking forest and environment laws.Now POSCO which has been trying to build a $12 Billion Steel Plant in the Mineral Rich State of Eastern India finds that Green Approvals given might be cancelled by a panel of government experts.Note the POSCO project was stopped recently pending an environmental assessment whose report will be published on Oct 25.Despite hectic lobbying by POSCO and the provincial Orissa government,the project looks set for more delays.Note the Steel Plant which was started in 2005 is already way behind schedule.
October 18, 2010
Hitachi has been running large losses at its Lithium Batter Division due the the severe global competition in the international Lithium Battery Market.With huge growth expected in the Green Automobile Industry in the future,everyone is trying to establish a strong foothold in this emerging segment.Hitachi is one of the lesser known names in the Battery Industry and the company does not expect profits in the next 3 years.However the company's fortunes in the Green Industry might change as it has teamed up with Automobile Parts Giant Johnson Controls.JCI is a multi billion US company with leadership position in the Energy Efficiency,Lead Batteries and Automobile Parts.The company has shown increasing profits and revenues in all of its division in the last quarter.It would suit both companies to design,develop and market batteries for the Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Segments.
October 18, 2010
Wind Energy in India is the biggest Green Industry currently with around 1 GW of Wind Power Capacity being installed in a year on average.The Growth in Wind Industry has been driven by states like Tamil Nadu who have heavily subsidized and promted Wind Energy.India at around 10 GW of Wind Capacity is the world's 5th largest Wind Energy Producer.However India remains far behind China in terms of Wind Energy Growth .Last Year China installed nearly 13 GW of Wind Energy which is more than India's total installed capacity of Wind Energy.With a target of around 230 GW by 2020,China is on track to install 20 GW of WInd Capacity a Year in the next 10 years which would make India a Pygmy.Also two of the largest Wind Turbine Producers Sinovel and Goldwind are from China.India despite producing a world class company Suzlon in the early states of Wind Industry Development is struggling.Suzlon has fallen on very hard times running big losses while other Wind Companies are of hardly any decent size.
October 17, 2010
US Steelworkers Union filed a Trade Complaint against China over its predatory practices in Green Sectors recently listing numerous infringements.While it was not thought of as a serious complaint because all Green Sectors have an element of Subsidy from Governments.This was seen as more of a tactical maneuver to gain more concessions from Chinese Green Investors in the USA like the A-Power deal with USW to buy USA made Steel for its Wind Turbine Plant in the USA.However what has been surprising is the alacrity with which the USA administration has accepted the 301 Filing.Now the USA Government Apparatus will investigate the claims and file punitive duties and penalties on Chinese made Green Products imported into the US.This has already resulted in a major stock sell-off in Chinese Solar Stocks which were enjoying a great rally.Note this Green War is part of a general Trade Cold War between the USA and China.This threatens to derail the feeble global economic recovery that we have seen so far.Without compromise and agreement between the major global powers on reducing the huge global imbalances,this could easily result in a Depression which was averted in 2008.
October 14, 2010
Coal India IPO the biggest primary market-raising company in the history of the markets has raised a huge amount of investor interest.The investor is barraged with […]
October 14, 2010
1) Tax on Solar Subsidies - The Czech Government which used to give a tax holiday to solar energy revenues will be withdrawn and a new tax rate will be introduced.
2) No more Free Carbon Credits - The administration will generate revenue through selling the carbon credits rather than giving it free to Renewable Energy Producers.This will remove another source of return for solar investors.
3) Rent for Power Plants on Agricultural Lands - The Government also plans to impose a Fee on Solar Power Plants that are built on Agricultural Lands.
Czech is facing a massive economic problem due to the increase in electricity prices at a time of Fiscal Compression.This has been mainly an outcome of huge subsidies being given to the solar energy producers.With almost 1.6 GW of Solar Energy being installed by 2010,the government had no other option than to clamp down and clawback some of the super-normal profits being given to solar investors.
October 14, 2010
Solar Panels despite being mostly a commodity comes in a wide variety of types,technology,prices,size and colors.You can read an introduction about the lowest cost panels here.With there being no global index of Solar Panel Prices and with Prices of Solar Panels forming very quickly,its a difficult problem in acquiring the cheapest solar panels.The problem is compounded for solar panel buyers because these panels are typically sold by wholesalers and distributors who charge fat margins without providing any additional value.Also due to the lack of knowledge about the quality and the properties of solar panels,buyers generally get fleeced.Also panels are seldom sold separately as it is generally part of the overall package of the complete installation of panels,inverters,wiring,connection and integration.Here is a quick overview of which are the companies which make the lowest cost solar panels on the planet at a good quality and the most recent prices which they are selling at.Notice that the European and Japanese solar panels are of much higher price despite there being very little to differentiate themselves from Asian solar panels.
October 13, 2010
The Transmission Line will give a huge boost to Offshore WInd Energy in the United States.The Government has estimated a 4000 GW Offshore Wind Potential which is almost 4 times bigger than the current 1000 GW Electricity Generating Capacity . However note the load factors for wind is usually 1/4th to 1/3rd that of normal Fossil Fuel Energy so it would be incorrect to say that Offshore Wind could generate 4 times the current US Electricity like some websites are doing.However this is not to takeaway from the fact that this will help wind energy and green jobs considerably.US is seriously lagging behind countries like China and South Korea in the upcoming Green Industry.Lack of US Climate Legislation and indifferent individuals and companies are creating massive roadblocks in Climate Mitigation.Tranmission Costs are a big hurdle for Offshore as well as Onshore Wind Energy.Note the bigger the consumer area for Renewable Energy the less the adverse affects of intermittency.The Tres Amigas Transmission SuperHub is another example of Private Initiative in the Electricity Transmission Area.While the dollar benefits to the investing companies might be uncertain,the Green Benefits of this move are immense.The US Electricity Regulator has already given a thumbs up and the US Administration also seems very supportive recently approving the Cape Wind Offshore Wind Farm in Federal Waters in Nanutech Sound.
October 13, 2010
42% of World's Hungry Children Live in India
In contrast to the exponential growth of wealth of India's upper classes,the poor continue to eke out a miserable existence mired in hunger and constantly facing starvation.Globalization of Agriculture has further increased Food Price Inflation making their positive even more precarious.According to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI),India slipped 2 places to be ranked in the 67th place amongst 88 nations in the Hunger Index.Despite a stellar economic performance over the last 20 years or so and sharp rise in per capita GDP,India remains one of the poorest nations on earth.It ranks below even Nepal,Pakistan,Sudan with 48% of India's children stunted due to lack of food.The report is a strong indictment of growth policies which has made its children mostly hungry and stunted.Other strongly growing economies like Brazil and China have performed much better than India.Time for India's government to radically change the structure of India's economic growth.Despite promotion of policies like NREGA and midday meals for poor,rank corruption and leakage has led to India being the hungriest nation on earth.
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